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MLB Predictions: Bet the Giants, Tigers and Marlins on July 23rd 2014

MLB PREDICTIONS JULY 23RD 2014MLB Predictions: July 23rd 2014
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Prediction: San Francisco Giants -140
Philadelphia hasn’t had any sort of home field advantage this season as it sits at 19-31 at home. San Francisco, on the other hand, is a tremendous 28-19 on the road. San Francisco’s Bumgarner has been his best on the road where he is 7-2 with a 1.94 ERA in 11 starts. The Giants are 5-0 in his last five road starts versus losing teams and 7-0 this season in his road starts versus NL clubs that average 4.3 runs per game or fewer. San Francisco has taken the first two games of this series and, while some may be tempted to play the bounce-back angle, recent history suggests that’s a bad move. Philly is 1-8 this season in home games when seeking revenge for two straight home losses to an opponent. Take the Giants. -Dave Price

Prediction: Detroit Tigers -142
The Detroit Tigers are a free pIck for Wednesday afternoon’s rubber match in Arizona. Anibal Sanchez and the Tigers will look for revenge after losing late in Arizona, preventing them from getting their 3rd win a row. Detroit is 8-2 under Anibal Sanchez’s last 10 starts as a favorite on the road and 5-2 in his last 7. Trevor Cahill will be hard pressed to improve on his 1-6 5.63ERA today with a 2-2, 4.15ERA in 5 starts versus the Tigers. The price is high so take it only for a small amount and look for a bigger and better TOP PLAY this afternoon. -Ari Atari

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Prediction: Miami Marlins +1.5 -137
The Marlins on the run line gets the call as Wednesday’s free play. They have won the first 2 games of the series and are in good position to take Game 3 with Eovaldi getting the nod. The right-hander has been lights out versus the Braves with a 1.86 ERA in nine starts. He has a 1.29 ERA in 3 starts against them this season. Santana, meanwhile, has compiled a 5.61 ERA in 5 starts versus the Marlins. The Braves are 1-5 in their last 6 games after losing the first 2 games of a series. Take Miami on the run line. -Jeff Alexander

Detroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Betting Odds & Pick: July 22nd 2014

TIGERS VS. DIAMONDBACKS BETTING ODDS PICKDetroit Tigers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Betting Pick: Detroit -118 odds (July 22nd 2014)
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The Detroit Tigers are showing excellent value as a small road favorite against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight. They have so much more to play for than the Diamondbacks at this point in the season as they are leading the AL Central, while Arizona is in 4th place in the NL West.

The Tigers also have the edge on the mound in this one. Rick Porcello is having a fine season, going 12-5 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.181 WHIP over 18 starts. He has been at his best on the road, going 8-2 with a 2.91 ERA and 1.169 WHIP in 10 starts away from home.

Chase Anderson has been mediocre at best this season for Arizona. The right-hander has gone 6-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 1.400 WHIP over 10 starts in 2014. Anderson has really struggled of late, going 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and 2.045 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Tigers are 12-3 in their last 15 road games. Detroit is 8-1 in Porcello’s last nine road starts. The Tigers are 9-1 in Porcello’s last 10 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Detroit is 55-25 in its last 80 interleague games vs. a team with a losing record. The Tigers are 42-17 in Porcello’s last 59 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Bet Detroit Tuesday.

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MLB Prediction from Teddy Covers: Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals: July 22nd 2014

MLB PREDICTIONS JULY 22ND 2014Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinals
MLB Prediction: Tampa Bay +148 odds (July 22nd 2014)
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In general, I’m comfortable laying a bit more juice in the second half of the MLB season than I am in the first half, simply because there tend to be a good handful of pretty bad teams that stop showing up after the All Star Break.

These are teams that are profitable to fade at every reasonable opportunity, even if you have to lay a price to do so. For example, my clients and I bet against the Rockies last night, laying in the -140/-145 range with a road favorite. Washington won 7-2 as the Rockies stumbled and bumbled their way to a sixth consecutive defeat.

At the same time, you’ll find some very attractively priced ‘live’ underdogs post-break, and I tend to widen my range towards bigger dogs like this one. There are consistently solid opportunities for fading favorites that shouldn’t be laying big prices (think 2012 Red Sox and Braves in September or the Rangers last year) or riding teams that are playing far better baseball than their full season stats would indicate.

The latter of the two is the case here. Tampa Bay isn’t playing like a last place team that’s six games under .500. Rather, the Rays have won five straight and 16 of their last 21 with a lineup that’s finally hitting and a pitching staff that is shutting everybody down (only six runs allowed in Minnesota over the weekend).

The Rays are catching Adam Wainwright off-rhythm following his All Star Game appearance when he “grooved one” to Derek Jeter and gave up three runs in an inning. Wainwright hasn’t really been stretched out in ten days. And it’s surely worth noting that key Tampa bats James Loney, Evan Longoria, Jose Molina and Ben Zobrist all have hit .333 or better against Wainwright in their careers, a combined 17-39 (.435).

The Cardinals are not a very good hitting team and Jake Odorizzi has, very quietly, allowed only eleven runs in his last seven starts; dominating repeatedly, with advanced metric stats that show his current form is not entirely flukish. That makes the Rays a clear choice for me at this attractive underdog price. Take the Rays.

2014 UCF Knights Football Preview & Predictions

2014 UCF KNIGHTS PREDICTIONS2014 UCF Knights Football Predictions
2013 Record: (12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)
Returning starters: (Offense: 6, Defense: 9)
ATSWins.com’s Odds to win AAC: 10-1
The Knights have a big hole to fill at quarterback as Blake Bortles left early for the NFL Draft. Boise State transfer Nick Patti will vie with sophomore Justin Holman for the job. UCF does have five receivers back including Rannell Hall (57 receptions for 886 yards). Sophomore RB Will Stanback will be counted on to replace Storm Johnson, who was drafted in the NFL. On defense, they finished 17th in the nation and allowed just 21.3 points per game. They return nine starters along and they add junior college recruits in defensive tackles Lance McDowdell (6-4, 310) and linebacker Errol Clarke. The Knights allowed just 122.5 rushing yards per game (16th best in the nation) but had only 29 sacks last season. The schedule includes Penn State from Dublin, Ireland, Missouri on the road and BYU at home. That’s a tough non-conference slate and a lot tougher than facing the likes of Tulane, Temple, Connecticut and Tulsa

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2014 Tulsa Hurricane Football Preview & Predictions

2014 TULSA HURRICANE PREVIEW PREDICTIONS2014 Tulsa Hurricane Football Predictions
2013 Record: (3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)
Returning Starters: (Offense: 5, Defense: 10)
ATSWins.com’s Odds to Win AAC: 25-1
The Hurricane struggled in their last year in Conference USA. First things first, they must find a competent quarterback. Sophomore Dane Evans (6-1, 215) gets the first shot as he completed just 84-of-195 passes for 898 yards. He is expected to get pressure from Joseph Calcagni and true freshman Jabe Burgess. Tulsa will miss running back Trey Watts, who finished with 3,515 career yards. Keyarris Garrett returns after a season-ending leg injury in the second game last year. He had 67 catches for 845 yards and nine touchdowns in 2012. The defense returns most of their starters save for Shawn Jackson, the C-USA Defensive Player of the Year. Defensive ends Derrick Alexander (6.5 sacks) leads the pass rush. The secondary is anchored by free safety Demarco Nelson, who sat out 2013 due to academics and was preseason first-team all-conference last year. The schedule features Oklahoma and Texas State at home. They face Temple, Memphis, UCF and Houston on the road in conference. Games against East Carolina, South Florida, SMU and Tulane at home are winnable.

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2014 Tulane Green Wave Football Preview & Predictions

2014 TULANE GREEN WAVE FOOTBALL PREDICTIONS2014 Tulane Green Wave Football Predictions
2013 Record: (7-6 SU, 9-4 ATS)
Returning Starters: (Offense: 7, Defense: 6)
ATSWins.com’s Odds to Win AAC: 30-1
The Green Wave found a way to win seven games last year despite having an anemic offense. They ranked 115th nationally in total offense and lost top running back Curtis Darkwa (863 yards) along with top receiver Ryan Grant (1,039 yards). Redshirt freshman Sherman Badie (5-10, 182) is a breakaway threat that the team has lacked. Quarterback Tanner Lee is a redshirt freshman who emerged as the starter in the spring and showed a quicker release and more arm strength than senior Nick Montana. The defense ranked 22nd in the nation in yards allowed (352.1ypg) and tied for second in turnovers forced awith 35. However, six of the top nine tacklers are gone including talented tackle Julius Warmsley. Cornerback Lorenzo Doss was a first-team all-conference selection after intercepting seven passes. The Green Wave also add CUSA-co-Freshman of the Year Nico Marley, the son of Miami star Rohan (and Bob’s grandson). He’s a 5-8, 180-pound linebacker who had 67 tackles. The schedule features Georgia Tech and SE Louisiana at home with Duke and Rutgers on the road. Their non-conference schedule features UCF, Houston and East Carolina on the road. Tulane could be a surprise in their first year in the AAC.

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2014 Temple Owls Football Preview & Predictions

2014 TEMPLE OWLS PREDICTIONS2014 Temple Owls Football Predictions
2013 Record: (2-10 SU, 8-4 ATS)
Returning starters: (Offense: 5, Defense: 8)
Odds to win AAC: 75-1
Will the Owls ever get back to competing again? Matt Rhule enters his second season with a team that couldn’t finish last year. They held or tied for the lead the beginning of the fourth quarter in their final five games. QB P.J. Walker (6-1, 200) played well when he took over as a true freshman last October. He averaged 330 passing yards with a combined nine touchdowns and three interceptions over his last three games. They need to find more playmakers around him. Senior Jalen Fitzpatrick (38 receptions) is the team’s leading receiver. They don’t have a proven strong running back either. On defense, the Owls need to develop a pass rush. Linebacker Tyler Matakevich led the nation in solo tackles with 106 as a sophomore. The defensive backs had just three interceptions so they obviously need to improve their playmaking skills. The schedule includes Vanderbilt and Penn State on the road with Navy and Delaware State at home. The conference is tough with road games at Houston and UCF, along with home games against Cincinnati and East Carolina.

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Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Betting Line & Prediction: July 21st 2014

Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels
Prediction: Baltimore +121 betting line (July 21st 2014)
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This is a great spot to back the Orioles as a road underdog against the Angels. Baltimore is going to be all business after losing their first series after the break, while LA could be in for a let down following yesterday’s dramatic come from behind win over division rival Seattle.

I also like the pitching matchup in this one. Baltimore’s Bud Norris is 3-0 with a sensational 0.32 ERA and 0.964 WHIP over 4 career starts against the Angels, while LA’s Matt Shoemaker comes in with a 5.60 ERA and 1.811 WHIP over his last 3 starts.

Key Trends – Baltimore is 14-3 in their last 17 games following a loss, 6-0 in their last 6 games vs a starter with a WHIP of 1.30 or worse, 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 2 runs or less and 5-1 in Norris’ last 6 starts during game 1 of a series.

System – Any team (BALTIMORE) – team with a poor OBP (<=.320) against a good starting pitcher (WHIP=1.300 to 1.350) -AL, with a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start are 68-32 (68%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE ORIOLES +121!

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2014 SMU Mustangs Football Preview & Predictions

2014 SMU MUSTANGS PREDICTIONS PREVIEW2014 SMU Mustangs Football Predictions
2013 Record: (5-7 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Returning starters: (Offense: 6, Defense: 5)
Odds to win AAC: 40-1
The Mustangs struggled last season and that was despite having prolific quarterback Garrett Gilbert. He’s gone and sophomore Neal Burcham is expected to take over, though he lacks the arm strength or running ability that made Gilbert No. 2 in the nation in total offense. He did have some experience last season playing for an injured Gilbert and three three picks in a 34-0 loss against Houston. The Mustangs are also thin up front in terms of experience. Prescott Line (6-0, 233) takes over for his brother Zach, another outstanding player who graduated. He’ll be pushed by Kevin Pope (5-10, 225), who had a strong spring. The Mustangs also lost two 1,000-yard receivers and will need senior Der’rikk Thompson and junior Darius Joseph to step up. On defense, SMU should be improved this season after playing so many freshmen last year. However, they lost leading tackler Randall Joyner, an excellent leader. Up front, senior Beau Barnes (6-5, 255) returns after leading the team with 13.0 tackles for loss. The schedule features Baylor, North Texas, Texas A&M and TCU. The conference schedule is doable with UCF on the road along with Houston and Cincinnati at home.

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2014 South Florida Bulls Football Preview & Predictions

2014 SOUTH FLORIDA BULLS PREVIEW PREDICTIONS2014 South Florida Bulls Football Predictions
2013 Record: (2-10 SU, 5-7 ATS)
Returning starters: (Offense: 10, Defense: 5)
Odds to win AAC: 35-1
USF struggled in the first year under new coach Willie Taggart. For the Bulls to turn it around, they need to find a solid quarterback. Sophomore Mike White (6-4, 200) started five games as a freshman last year and should improve this season. They need a running game to take the pressure off of White. They don’t have a star so they’ll probably go back-by-committee. The good news is that four starters return on the offensive line. On defense, the Bulls finished the year ranked 21st in the nation. Sophomore DT Derrick Calloway (6-2, 296) has a chance to be a beast on the interior while sophomore linebacker Reshard Cliett was the second-leading tackler. At one point, the secondary played with four freshmen. This is still a young team but eventually, after playing so many freshmen last season, the Bulls should make major progress this season. The non-conference schedule is doable with Western Carolina, NC State and Maryland at home, but they also have to go on the road to face Wisconsin. The conference schedule features Cincinnati and SMU on the road, with Houston and East Carolina at home along with weak UConn.

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