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Chicago vs. New York Week 3 NFL Pick & Point Spread: September 22nd 2014

Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets
Point Spread: New York -3 Over/Under 45 (September 22nd 2014)

ATS Trends:
Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3. Jets are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Jets are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. Jets are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game. Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 3. Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Monday games. Bears are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. Bears are 5-15-1 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 15-2 in Jets last 17 games in Week 3. Over is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games on fieldturf. Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 games following a S.U. loss. Under is 5-2 in Jets last 7 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Over is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games overall. Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games in September. Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games following a ATS win. Over is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.


Head-to-Head Trends:
Bears are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

Free Pick from Rocky Atkinson: Play On: NY Jets -2 1/2 The Chicago Bears travel to New York to take on the Jets on Monday night. Both teams come in with identical 1-1 records on the season. Chicago is averaging just 66 yards per game on the ground this year while the Jets Defense are allowing only 52.5 yards per game rushing this season. Jets are allowing only 274 total yards per game this year. Chicago is 4-13 ATS last 3 years in games where the line is +3 to -3. Jets defense is allowing only 14 points per game at home this year. Chicago is 1-7 ATS last 8 games after an ATS win. Chicago is 0-4 ATS last 4 games on artificial turf. Favorite is 3-1-1 ATS last 5 meetings in this series. We’ll recommend a small play on the NY Jets tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky 67% in CFB this year and 71% in NFL this year! 58-30 66% last 88 overall premium football picks in NFL and CFB combined! Nice! Passing on Monday!

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Chicago Bears vs. New York Jets Point Spread & Prediction: September 22nd 2014

BEARS VS. JETS POINT SPREAD PREDICTION SEPTEMBER 22ND 2014The Chicago Bears (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) were looking at 0-2 last week, before stunning San Francisco with a late comeback to win 28-20 on the road. The New York Jets (1-1 SU, 0-1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U) had Green Bay on the ropes early and then fell apart late, losing 31-24. The Jets host Chicago on Monday night football from MetLife Stadium at 8:30pmET.

Point Spread: The game opened as a pick-em and moved to the New York Jets as a 2.5-betting odds favorite. The total opened at 45.5 and moved to 44.5 in most books.

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Jay Cutler can be as good as any quarterback in the game and at times, be dreadful. Last week against one of the best defenses in the game, Cutler led Chicago back from a 17-point deficit on the road with four touchdown passes. Brandon Marshall caught three of those touchdown passes as the Bears won 28-20 on Sunday night football in the first game at San Francisco’s Levi’s Stadium.

Nobody said that Cutler didn’t like the limelight. He’s 6-1 on Monday Night Football, which includes three straight wins, 14 touchdowns and just three interceptions.

Cutler goes up against a very tough Jets’ front seven, but a questionable secondary. Marshall (hamstring) and Alshon Jeffery (hamstring) are both playing with injuries that might limit their explosiveness.

But all Cutler needs is to get to the red zone where he can throw the ball up to his 6-foot-4 receivers or 6-foot-6 tight end Martellus Bennett.

The injuries have also spread to the defense, where they lost cornerback Charles Tillman for the year with a triceps injury. Rookie cornerback Kyle Fuller had two fourth-quarter interceptions against the 49ers, while defensive end Willie Young added two fourth-quarter sacks.

The Jets are never shy about doing things the unorthodox way. Just when it looked as though quarterback Geno Smith tied the game late in the fourth quarter with a long touchdown pass against Green Bay, offensive coordinator Marty Morhingweg called timeout before the play began.

Smith was erratic, completing 16-of-32 for 176 yards with a touchdown and interception. Last year, Smith passed for 199 yards and three TDs against Atlanta in his only Monday Night Football game last season (Jets won 30-28). Wide receiver Eric Decker caught a touchdown pass before leaving with a hamstring injury. Chris Ivory ran a touchdown in the loss.

The Jets need to run the football against a Chicago defense that ranks 27th in the league agaisnt the run, giving up 160 yards per game. Ivory and Chris Johnson have led the Jets 179 yards rushing per game, which leads the NFL. Ivory has rushed for 145 ayrds and two scores and is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt.

Defensively, the Jets have allowed just 52.5 yards per game on the ground. That’s because other teams have thrown the ball against their shaky secondary. Last week, Green Bay receiver Jordy Nelson romped for 209 yards reeiving against the Jets. To make matters worse, cornerback Dee Milliner is questionable with an ankle injury.

The Jets have lost the last three in this series, but haven’t faced the Bears since 2010. They have a lot to prove after winning in an unimpressive manner against Oakland and than blowing the lead at Green Bay. They could exploit a Bears’ defense that was struggling to begin with that has injury issues.

Royals vs. Indians Betting Odds & Pick from Steve Janus: September 22nd 2014

ROYALS VS. INDIANS BETTING PICK ODDS SEPTEMBER 22ND 2014Kansas City Royals vs. Cleveland Indians
Betting Pick: Kansas City +106 odds (September 22nd 2014)

The Royals should not be an underdog to the Indians in this one. Cleveland has won 5 of 6 overall, but that’s come against the likes of the Astros and Twins. Kansas City desperately needs a win here to maintain their 1.5-game lead over the Mariners for the final Wild Card spot. While there’s no question the Royals are going to come out motivated, I think this is a tough spot for the Indians, who just finished up a 10-game road trip and haven’t had a day off since 9/10.

Kansas City will send out Danny Duffy, who has a 2.39 ERA and 1.020 WHIP over 12 road starts and an even better 1.32 ERA and 0.828 WHIP over his last 3 starts. The Indians’ Carlos Carrasco has been equally impressive of late with a 1.50 ERA and 0.667 WHIP over his last 3 starts, but he’s got a 5.24 ERA and 1.399 WHIP over 6 career starts against the Royals.

Key Trends – Kansas City is 6-0 in Duffy’s last 6 starts during game 1 of a series and 4-0 in his last 4 vs the AL Central. Cleveland is 5-11 in their last 16 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days, 0-8 in Carrasco’s last 8 starts during game 1 of a series, 1-8 in his last 9 following a quality start and 4-10 in his last 14 vs the AL Central.

System – Home teams with a money line of +125 to -125 after 10 straight games where they failed to hit more than 1 home run and are starting a pitcher that has an ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts are just 19-39 (33%) against the money line over the last 5 seasons. BET THE ROYALS +106!

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Cardinals vs. Cubs Betting Line & Prediction from Nick Parsons: September 22nd 2014

Prediction: St. Louis -175 betting line (September 22nd 2014)

The St. Louis Cardinals are trying to secure the National League Central Division title by sending nineteen game winner Adam Wainwright to the mound against the Chicago Cubs. The Cardinals have a two and a half game lead over Pittsburgh with six games to go. The Cardinals, who have at least clinched a wild-card spot, has won seven of nine games.
Wainwright is 19 and 9 with a 2.45 ERA on the season. Wainwright has won four straight starts while compiling a 1.69 ERA with two complete games. Against Chicago, he has gone 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA in his past six starts.

The Cubs, trailing St. Louis is 9-7 in the season series, will be sending Travis Wood to the mound. Wood is 8-12 on the season, recording a 4.86 ERA. He has been on a bad streak at home going he’s 0-4 with a 5.43 ERA over his last 10 home starts. In his last outing he went six scoreless giving up three hits but not figuring in the decision. Wood is 2-2 with a 4.99 ERA in seven starts against the Cardinals at Wrigley.

I am playing on Adam Wainwright as much as I am playing against Travis Wood. I see Wainwright getting his twentieth win of the season and the Cardinals knocking Wood out of the game early. The Cardinals move a step closer to the division title and the Cubs take a step closer to the beach. I am playing on the Cardinals.

Yankees vs. Orioles Betting Line & Prediction from Jesse Schule: September 22nd 2014

YANKEES VS. ORIOLES LINE SEPTEMBER 22ND 2014New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles
Prediction: Yankees -107 betting line (September 22nd 2014)

The Yankees are coming off a 3-1 series victory at home over the Blue Jays, and they’ll host the A.L East champion Orioles in the Bronx tonight. Baltimore is coming off a home series versus Boston, where it lost 2-of-3. The Orioles have been resting players as they get geared up for the post-season, and I don’t expect them to be too excited about battling it out with the Yankees in the Bronx.

Michael Pineda will toe the slab for New York, and he’s had a successful return from the DL. Pineda (3-5, 2.15 ERA) allowed a pair of runs (one earned) on four hits over 5 1/3 innings in a loss at Tampa Bay his last time out. He owns an impressive home record of 2-1 with a 1.95 ERA in five starts. He’s faced Baltimore once previously this season, allowing one run on two hits over five innings in that game.

The Orioles hand the ball to Wei Yin Chen, who has been having a career year. Chen (16-4, 3.58 ERA) surrendered a pair of runs on nine hits over 5 2/3 innings in a win at Toronto his last time out. He hasn’t had much success against the Yankees in his career though, and he was rocked for four runs on nine hits over five innings in his only trip to the Bronx this year. Going back the last three seasons, he’s 0-2 with a 4.86 ERA in three visits to New York.

Brett Gardner is hitting .417 with a home run and five RBIs lifetime versus Chen.

Chargers vs. Bills Week 3 NFL Point Spread & Pick from Steve Rosen: September 21st 2014

CHARGERS VS. BILLS POINT SPREAD WEEK 3 PICKSan Diego Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills
Week 3 NFL Pick: Buffalo -1 point spread (September 21st 2014)

BUFFALO is looking good all around! There defense is holding opponents to an average of 15 points.Buffalo has excelled on special team behind kicker Dan Carpenter and running back/returner C.J. Spiller, who returned a kickoff 102 yards last week to crush Miami’s momentum in a 29-10 win. Buffalo’s offense has not needed to do much thanks to the defense and special teams, but EJ Manuel is occasionally showing how effective he can be when healthy and with a full complement of weapons. Manuel and rookie receiver Sammy Watkins have developed an instant chemistry. Keep in mind the weather will be rainy and in the favor of Buffalo. The travel of any west coast team to the east coast is never good. Keep in mind , when was the last time Buff was 3-0? They have momentum and will be hungry in this game.

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Prediction: September 21st 2014

Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Betting Prediction: Washington +6 (September 21st 2014)

The Eagles have been a poor investment at home where they are a dismal 7-21-1 ATS their last 29 games, and they are being overvalued here considering they have had one less day to prepare. I also expect Washington to be little more motivated as it seeks revenge for losing both of last season’s meetings. Washington has been a strong investment on the road in this spread range, going 37-21 ATS as a road dog of 3.5 to 7.0 points since 1992. The Redskins are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game and 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine games following a win of more than 14 points. The road team has been the play in this matchup as it is on a 10-4-1 ATS run. The Redskins are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Philadelphia. You want to fade home favorites that allowed 24.0 ppg or more last season following a game where they combined for 50 points or more. Doing so has produced a 23-3 ATS mark since 1983. Take the points.

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Ravens vs. Browns Week 3 NFL Point Spread & Pick: September 21st 2014

RAVENS VS. BROWNS WEEK 3 PICK SPREADBaltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns
Week 3 NFL Pick: Baltimore -1 point spread (September 21st 2014)

The Ravens hold the advantage here because they have had 3 extra days of rest and preparation time. They have completely owned the Browns, going 11-1 in the last 12 meetings with the wins coming by an average of 12.5 points. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Cleveland, and the road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings so the trends are certainly in our favor. The Browns did win the most recent meeting, but that assures us that Baltimore won’t be taking them lightly. The Browns won last week, but that was their first win in 9 games. I’m going to make the Browns prove it. Bet Baltimore.

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Texans vs. Giants Week 3 NFL Point Spread & Pick from Will Rogers: September 21st 2014

Week 3 NFL Pick: Houston +2 point spread (September 21st 2014)

The Texans are in New York this week to take on the Giants, and Houston is undefeated at 2-0. This is exactly where they were at this point last year, and they went on to lose their next 14 games. There is plenty of reason to think things will be different this season, while the Giants haven’t shown any signs of fixing their issues.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Eli Manning – The Giants QB has two Super Bowl rings, but he’s been simply awful since the beginning of last season. He’s already been picked off four times in two weeks, putting him on pace to surpass last seasons total of 27 INTs. This is not an ideal spot to expect him to turn things around against a Texans defense that has held opponents to an average of just 10 points per game so far.

2. Texans Running Game – Arian Foster ran for 138 yards and a TD last week in Oakland, and he’s likely to get plenty of touches here on the road this week. The Giants defense has only allowed an average of 100 yards rushing per game through the first two weeks, but I expect them to struggle here against a very physical Texans team.

3. X-Factor – The Giants lead the NFL with six turnovers, and they don’t have a single takeaway.

Selection: This is a play on the Houston Texans (Free).

Cowboys vs. Rams Week 3 NFL Point Spread & Pick from Jesse Schule: September 21st 2014

Week 3 NFL Pick: Dallas -1 point spread (September 21st 2014)

That’s right! I am going with the Cowboys again this week. Even though they disappointed in a home loss to San Francisco in Week 1, they still came out of that game with plenty of positives. They had more total yards, more first downs, and an edge in time of possession. They also held the 49ers scoreless in the second half.

Last week against Tennessee, we saw a power running game and a strong defense dominate an inferior opponent on the road. I think last week’s game gives us a more accurate look at what this team is all about. With DeMarco Murray running all over the opposition, we should expect a similar showing here in St. Louis this week. It’s important to note that Murray has punished the Rams throughout his career, averaging 218 yards per game against them.
The Rams were expected to be tough defensively this year, but there has been little indication of that in the first two weeks. They allowed Buccaneers backup Bobby Rainey to run for 144 yards on 22 carries last week.

Dallas QB Tony Romo still seems to be suffering rust (or lingering effects from off-season surgery), as he hasn’t looked sharp in the first two games. It’s reasonable to expect him to work himself back into shape as the season progresses, but regardless the visitors have the edge at the quarterback position with the Rams starting Austin Davis (third stringer).

If you though throwing for 235 yards in his debut against the Bucs was a good sign, perhaps you will be forced to reconsider after the Bucs were exposed in a 52-14 loss on Thursday night.

Take Dallas.