TCU Horned Frogs vs. Texas Longhorns
Betting Prediction: Texas +7 (November 27th 2014)
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I actually picked TCU to come out of nowhere to win the Big 12 this season. I predicted that they’d finish 11-1 on the season coming into the year, whereas most had them picked in the middle of the pack. While I would love to be right on that prediction, I simply believe the Horned Frogs are overvalued coming into this game against the Longhorns.
I have been riding TCU to a lot of profits this season because they have not only gone 9-1 straight up, but also 8-2 ATS. This team was undervalued coming into the season and throughout the majority of it as I expected, and there were a lot of soft lines to take advantage of in the first 3/4 of the season. But just like any team that covers a lot of games in a row, the odds eventually catch up to them, and that has happened with this TCU team.
Their two failures to cover have come in two of their last three games, and both were on the road. They were extremely fortunate to win 31-30 as a 3.5-point favorite at West Virginia as the Mountaineers gave the game away by committing five turnovers. They also had to come back from a second-half deficit last time out in a 34-30 win at Kansas as a 28-point favorite. So, they have not played nearly as well on the road against worse teams than Texas, and asking them to win by more than a touchdown to cover this spread is asking too much.
The Longhorns are playing their best football of the season right now. Players are finally buying in to what Charlie Strong is preaching, and they are starting to have a lot of fun while winning in blowout fashion. Texas is 3-0 SU & 3-0 ATS in its last three games overall. It won 34-13 as a 4-point favorite at Texas Tech, 33-16 as a 3-point home underdog to West Virginia, and 28-7 as a 1-point favorite at Oklahoma State.
This Texas defense is the real deal. It has held its last four opponents to an average of 14.8 points per game. It limited the Cowboys to just seven points and 192 total yards in its last game. For the season, it is giving up just 21.0 points and 346.5 points per game against teams that average 32.2 points and 438 yards per game. So, it is holding foes to 11.2 points and 91 yards per game below their season averages.
TCU is a pass-heavy team that averages 324 yards per game through the air. Well, that makes this a great matchup for Texas considering its strength defensively is against the pass. Indeed, the Longhorns are giving up just 182 passing yards per game and 5.5 per attempt against teams that average 262 passing yards per game and 7.5 per attempt. Texas held TCU to just 246 total yards in its 30-7 road win in Fort Worth last year.
Plays against road favorites (TCU) – an excellent offensive team (scoring at least 34 PPG) against an average defensive team (21-28 PPG), after a win by 6 or less points are 31-9 (77.5%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Texas is 46-26 ATS in its last 72 games after having won three of its last four games coming in. The Longhorns are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week. All the pressure is on TCU in this game, which could work against them as they try to make the college football playoff. Bet Texas Thursday.
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