MLB Picks: May 23rd 2013
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers
Prediction: Tigers -1.5 +120 odds
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Free MLB Baseball Prediction From Doc’s Sports: Take #904 Detroit (-1.5 RL) over Minnesota (7 p.m., Thursday, May 23) Detroit Tigers starter Rick Porcello is on my list of pitchers to bet on right now as Porcello came out of Spring Training as a guy primed for a much better season in 2013 but struggled a bit out of the gates. That has all changed over the last month as Porcello has been as good as he has ever been in his career. He comes in with an ERA of just 3.24 in his last four starts and a WHIP below 1.00. Even more impressive than those numbers is the fact Porcello has gone three straight starts striking out six batters or more for the first time in his career and has averaged nearly a strikeout per inning during that stretch. This hasn’t been coming against bad offenses, either, as his last two starts came against two of the top offenses in all of baseball, the Indians and Rangers. The Tigers once again look to be one of the top teams in baseball this season at home. Detroit also leads both leagues hitting a scorching hot .280 as a team right now.

Minnesota has really started to fall apart as they went into Wednesday’s game losers of seven straight games overall. They have been outscored by a 43-19 margin in those seven losses. Left-hander Scott Diamond takes the hill for the Twins and comes in off his two worst outings of the season, allowing six earned runs in each game without making it out of the sixth inning in either contest. The high-powered Tigers offense should have little problems here against Diamond. Take Detroit minus the run and a half in this one.

Indiana Pacers vs. Miami Heat
Point Spread: Miami -8 Over/Under 181 (May 22nd 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Heat are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss. Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games overall. Heat are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 vs. Eastern Conference. Heat are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Central. Pacers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 Wednesday games. Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Pacers are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Eastern Conference. Pacers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games playing on 3 or more days rest.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 Wednesday games. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 Conference Finals games. Over is 5-1 in Heat last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Over is 3-1-1 in Heat last 5 games following a ATS loss. Over is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 Conference Finals games. Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 Wednesday games. Under is 4-1-1 in Pacers last 6 games following a S.U. win. Under is 4-1-1 in Pacers last 6 games following a ATS win.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

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Baseball Picks: May 22nd 2013
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins
Prediction: Miami +160 odds
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Ryan won with the Giants last night in a 4-2 win over the Nationals pushing his 25* MLB Titan record to 29-20 and has made 12.35 units/unit wagered. Overall, he made the dime player $21, 018 on his 25* Titans, 15* DOGS, and 5* DOG parlays. Get this DOG now for just $25.00

10* graded baseball pick on the Miami Marlins as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies in NL East action set to start at 7:10 PM ET. The simulator shows a significant probability that Miami will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 67-45 record for just 60% winners, BUT has made 40 units/unit wagered since 2007. Play on all NL underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (MIAMI) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 or better on the season and is a solid fielding team turning 1.1 or more DP’s/game on the season. The average play ahs been a +130 dog adn represents and under scores the need to identify DOGS that win on a consistent basis if you intend on making profits in the money line sport of MLB. You may remember I had the Marlins at +160 in their decisive 5-1 win over the Phillies and their ace Cole Hamels. This was the first 15* DOG play and was combined with 15* Padres, who also won, and paid off 5:1 on the 5* parlay bet. In similar fashion to Hamels, Lee is just 4-10 (-9.2 Units) against the money line vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record). Moreover, he is just 5-11 (-11.4 Units) against the money line as a favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons. Take Miami.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers
MLB Pick: Brewers +100 odds (May 22nd 2013)
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Free MLB Pick from Doc’s Sports Take #954 Milwaukee Brewers over Los Angeles Dodgers (1:10pm ET) Two teams experiencing disappointing seasons go at it on Wednesday afternoon as the Milwaukee Brewers host the Los Angeles Dodgers. Both teams check in with 18-26 records putting them in the cellars of their respective divisions. One bright spot for the Dodgers has been starting pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu. The 26-year old Japanese import is 4-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in nine starts this season so far. However, it appears as if the league might be catching up to the deceptive ways of Ryu. Over his last three starts he has walked 10 batters in 17 2/3 innings of work and his stuff hasn’t looked as sharp. He’ll face a very good Brewers lineup that hits left-handers hard, so I expect some runs to be scored against Ryu today. Wily Peralta gets the ball for the Brewers. Peralta has pitched much better than his 5.94 ERA indicates as his strand rate is one of the lowest in the league. He keeps the ball on the ground quite a bit, which should help him immensely in Miller Park where the ball can fly out with ease. The Dodgers are 14th in the National League in runs scored, ahead of only the lowly Marlins, so Peralta should fare well here. In the battle of underachievers, I like the Brewers to get the job done at home.

MLB Predictions: May 21st 2013
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Indians
Pick: Over 8.5 -110 odds
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These two teams played two Overs in three meetings earlier this month, and tonight’s game will be another slugfest.

The Tigers come to Cleveland having lost a series in Arlington against the Rangers. It’s a rematch of a game from May 10th when Detroit won 10-4. Corey Kluber is 2-2 with a 6.17 ERA in four starts for Cleveland. He allowed 8 runs and 11 hits in that game in just over four innings of work. Kluber has allowed 14 runs and 25 hits in three starts over two seasons against the Tigers. Detroit is hitting .282 at night and scoring over 5 runs per game this season. They have gone Over the total in 7 of their last 11 games overall.
Max Scherzer took the win back on May 10th despite giving up 4 runs and five hits over eight innings pitched to the Indians. Scherzer has a 3.98 ERA in eight starts with five of those games going Over the total. The Tigers’ starter is 6-4 with a 5.17 ERA in 12 career starts against Cleveland. The Indians walked off with a win on Monday afternoon and they are scoring over 5 runs per game this season. Cleveland has gone Over in three of their last five games. Detroit’s bullpen is 3-8 with six blown saves on the season. These two teams played two Overs in three meetings earlier this month, and tonight’s game will be another slugfest.

Be sure to take advantage of Steve Merril’s expert MLB predictions for May 21st 2013 at Touthouse.com today!

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Ottawa Senators
Betting Line: Pittsburgh -125 Over/Under 5.5 (May 19th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Senators are 13-6 in their last 19 home games. Senators are 1-9 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Senators are 0-4 in their last 4 vs. Atlantic. Penguins are 6-0 in their last 6 Sunday games. Penguins are 22-6 in their last 28 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Penguins are 40-12 in their last 52 overall. Penguins are 40-12 in their last 52 vs. Eastern Conference. Penguins are 46-15 in their last 61 games following a win.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-0-1 in Senators last 5 home games following a road trip of 7 or more days. Under is 14-3-6 in Senators last 23 vs. Atlantic. Under is 7-2-2 in Senators last 11 Conference Semifinals games. Under is 35-15-11 in Senators last 61 overall. Under is 35-15-11 in Senators last 61 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 5-1 in Penguins last 6 games playing on 1 days rest. Over is 4-1 in Penguins last 5 games following a win. Under is 8-2 in Penguins last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 16-6 in Penguins last 22 Sunday games. Under is 8-3 in Penguins last 11 vs. Northeast.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Penguins are 5-0 in the last 5 meetings. Over is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings. Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Ottawa. Home team is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings.

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New York Rangers vs. Boston Bruins
Betting Line: Boston -122 Over/Under 5 (May 19th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Bruins are 5-0 in their last 5 Conference Semifinals games. Bruins are 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Bruins are 2-5 in their last 7 games following a win. Bruins are 2-6 in their last 8 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Rangers are 5-1 in their last 6 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Rangers are 17-4 in their last 21 Sunday games. Rangers are 7-2 in their last 9 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Rangers are 20-9 in their last 29 games playing on 2 days rest. Rangers are 3-9 in their last 12 vs. Northeast.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 8-1-3 in Bruins last 12 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. Over is 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-1 in Bruins last 5 Sunday games. Under is 8-2-1 in Bruins last 11 vs. Atlantic. Over is 4-1-1 in Bruins last 6 Conference Semifinals games. Under is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 overall. Under is 2-0-4 in Rangers last 6 Sunday games. Under is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 vs. Eastern Conference. Over is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 vs. Northeast. Under is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 8-1-2 in the last 11 meetings in Boston. Under is 14-5-3 in the last 22 meetings. Rangers are 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Boston. Rangers are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.

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Memphis Grizzlies vs. San Antonio Spurs
Point Spread: San Antonio -4.5 Over/Under 182 (May 19th 2013)
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ATS Trends:
Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. Spurs are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games playing on 2 days rest. Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Spurs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs. Western Conference. Spurs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. Grizzlies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. Grizzlies are 17-4-1 ATS in their last 22 games overall.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-0 in Spurs last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 10-1 in Spurs last 11 Sunday games. Under is 7-1 in Spurs last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Under is 11-2 in Spurs last 13 games playing on 2 days rest. Under is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 overall. Under is 7-2 in Grizzlies last 9 Sunday games. Under is 7-2-1 in Grizzlies last 10 vs. NBA Southwest. Over is 6-2 in Grizzlies last 8 games playing on 3 or more days rest. Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 road games. Over is 5-2 in Grizzlies last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

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Head-to-Head Trends:
Under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings. Grizzlies are 2-6 ATS in the last 8 meetings. Grizzlies are 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in San Antonio.

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Kansas City Royals vs. Oakland Athletics
MLB Prediction: Oakland -146 odds (May 19th 2013)
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This is an MLB prediction on the Oakland Athletics over the Kansas City Royals on May 19th 2013.

First off, congrats to all those who got in on yesterday’s free winner on the A’s. If you haven’t been following my free plays this year, you might want to check out the history here: 2013 Free Play History

After cashing in on Oakland last night, we’re going right back for more tonight as the A’s take on the Royals at home in the final game of this series. Oakland looks to complete the sweep, with A.J. Griffin on the mound versus Luis Mendoza.

Griffin (4-3, 3.48 ERA) allowed a single run on six hits over seven innings in a 5-1 win over Texas in his last start. He’s been very solid at home this year, going 2-1 with a 3.12 ERA in four starts. “Command-wise, I’d say it’s my best start in the major leagues,” said Griffin.

Mendoza (1-2, 6.00 ERA) picked up his first win of the season, allowing three runs on six hits over six innings against the Angels his last time out. The Royals won the game 11-4, but he can’t be expecting to get that sort of run support in Oakland today.

The last two games between these two teams were both very close, with Oakland scoring late to win by a score of 2-1 in each game. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more one-sided score in tonight’s game.

Take the A’s.

Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
MLB Prediction: Detroit -119 odds (May 18th 2013)
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The Detroit Tigers have a massive edge on the mound Saturday. They should be a much heavier favorite as a result. I’ll gladly take advantage by backing them at an excellent price tonight.

Anibal Sanchez gets the ball for Detroit looking to continue his Cy Young-caliber 2013 campaign. He has gone 4-3 with a 2.05 ERA with 66 strikeouts over 52 2/3 innings this year. He has also posted a 1.82 ERA through four road starts.

Justin Grimm is 2-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.485 WHIP through six starts for Texas. He has really been knocked around the yard of late, going 0-3 with a 7.02 ERA and 1.800 WHIP in his last three starts.

The Tigers are 12-4 in their last 16 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30. The Rangers are 3-10 in their last 13 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Tigers Saturday.

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