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Below are 2007-2008 Bowl Game odds based upon power ratings by Ted Sevransky

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In today’s article, I’ll be going through the pre New Year’s Day bowl matchups one by one, giving you my power rating pointspread and a comment or two on each game. Tomorrow, I’ll discuss the bowl games to be played in 2008. Remember, the pointspreads here are based on my own personal power ratings, with any home field/home state edges factored in, essentially a strict power rating formula. These numbers do not take into account things like coaching changes, class differential and situational adjustments. Without further ado, let’s move on to the matchups:

Poinsettia Bowl Odds: Utah -11 vs. Navy.
The Middies won big here in ‘05, but the Utes are a Top 20 caliber team that should feast against this defense.

New Orleans Bowl Odds: Memphis pk vs. Florida Atlantic.
Memphis can’t stop anybody and FAU just won the biggest game of their lives as 16 point dogs at Troy.

PapaJohn’s Bowl Odds: Cincinnati -9.5 vs. Southern Miss.
Coaching change for Southern Miss for the bowl…and I wouldn’t be shocked if Cinci has one as well before kickoff.

New Mexico Bowl Odds: New Mexico -3 vs. Nevada.
The Lobos lost at home in this bowl last year to San Jose State. Full homefield edge awarded to NM.

Las Vegas Bowl Odds: BYU -8.5 vs. UCLA.
I was at the game when UCLA beat NM here in ’02, simply outclassing the lesser program. Given that they lost to Utah 44-6 earlier this year, they certainly won’t outclass BYU, who beat Oregon by 30 here last year.

Hawaii Bowl Odds: Boise St -11.5 vs. E Carolina.
I awarded Boise an extra point for the fact that they’ve already played on this field this year.

Motor City Bowl Odds: Purdue -3 vs. Central Michigan.
The Chippewas are 4-0 on this field over the past two seasons – I gave them two points for the in-state location, with an opportunity to avenge their early season 45-22 loss to the Boilermakers in West Lafayette.

Holiday Bowl Odds: Texas pk vs. Arizona State.
The PAC-10 teams often have trouble in this bowl, clearly the worst bowl affiliation for the second place team of any BCS conference.

Champs Sports Bowl Odds: Boston College -3 vs. Michigan State.
Another major drop-off. BC was playing for a BCS bowl this past Saturday, now they’re stuck here.

Texas Bowl Odds: TCU -5.5 vs. Houston.
Art Briles is gone, leaving the Cougars without the architect of their recent revival. But will Gary Patterson join Briles in seeking a major conference job?

Emerald Bowl Odds: Oregon State -5.5 vs. Maryland.
I gave the Beavers a point for the location advantage. Heath concerns for both teams at quarterback.

Meineke Bowl Odds: Wake Forest -2 vs. UConn.
My single most disappointing matchup; two strong teams that I was hoping to wager on facing off against each other.

Liberty Bowl Odds: Central Florida -4 vs. Mississippi State.
I know this is a bad line, but that’s where my power ratings say it should be. No surprise here if the Bulldogs come out as the favorite, but my numbers say not to drink the Croom kool-aid.

Alamo Bowl Odds: Penn State -4.5 vs. Texas A+M.
Bad matchup for Houston Nutt’s squad in terms of the fundamental matchups, but I gave them a point for home field.

Independence Bowl Odds: Alabama -6 vs. Colorado.
Nick Saban gets the chance to exorcise some demons close to home against a beatable foe.

Armed Forces Bowl Odds: Air Force -3 vs. California.
If you’ve watched the banged up Bears play at any point in the last month, this line seems short! Cal, if fully healthy, is at least a touchdown better than my current power rating.

Sun Bowl Odds: South Florida -8 vs. Oregon.
Ducks are another team that has crashed and burned once their national title dreams faded. Injured quarterback Dennis Dixon was arguably the single most important pointspread player in football this year.

Humanitarian Bowl Odds: Georgia Tech -4.5 vs. Fresno State.
Georgia Tech won 52-10 over Tulsa when they played in this bowl after the ’03 season. Fresno beat the Yellow Jackets 30-21 as 6.5 point underdogs in the ’02 Silicon Valley Bowl.

Music City Bowl Odds: Florida State -1.5 vs. Kentucky.
This is another bad pointspread – Kentucky should come as the favorite, possibly a pretty big favorite, despite their 1-4 record down the stretch.

Insight Bowl Odds: Oklahoma State -3 vs. Indiana.
Good game! Bet the Over, as the Hoosiers get to ‘Play 13’ in memory of ex-head coach Terry Hoeppner.

Chick-Fil-A Bowl Odds: Clemson -1 vs. Auburn.
Another really good game spoiling whatever New Year’s Eve plans you might have thought about having. Eat more Chikin!

Here’s Part 2 of my ‘first bowl thoughts’ atricle. Just like yesterday, the pointspreads here are based on my own personal power ratings, with any home field/home state edges factored in, essentially a strict power rating formula. These numbers do not take into account things like coaching changes, class differential and situational adjustments. Without further ado, let’s move on to New Year’s Day and beyond.

Outback Bowl odds: Tennessee -2.5 vs. Wisconsin.
Erik Ainge looked a whole lot like Peyton Manning in the SEC Championship Game: the Manning that didn’t win a single ‘big’ game in four years with the Vols. Badgers are 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS their last three bowls, all against SEC competition.

Cotton Bowl Odds: Missouri -3.5 vs. Arkansas.
Tigers went 0-2 against Oklahoma this year; 11-0 against everybody else. Arkansas has a completely one-dimensional offense and just lost their head coach to Ole Miss.

Capital One Bowl Odds: Florida -10.5 vs. Michigan.
Home state edge for the Gators who went 9-3 ATS this year and dominated Ohio State in the national championship game last January. Lloyd Carr gets to coach his Wolverines one last time, but, much like their struggles against Ohio State, this group of Michigan seniors has yet to win a bowl game.

Gator Bowl Odds: Texas Tech -2.5 vs. Virginia.
The Red Raiders rallied from 31 points down to beat Minnesota in their Insight Bowl last year. Virginia earned six of their nine victories by five points or less and were 4-0 SU and ATS as an underdog prior to their season ending loss to Virginia Tech.

Rose Bowl Odds: USC -11.5 vs. Illinois.
Homefield edge for the Trojans, who’s only bowl loss in the Pete Carroll era came via a blown double digit lead to Vince Young and the Texas Longhorns in the ’05 championship game. Illinois hung tough with every quality team they faced this year: Missouri, Penn State, Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio State, winning three of the five outright, with the largest margin of defeat ten points against the Wolverines.

Sugar Bowl Odds: Georgia -9 vs. Hawaii.
Boise State from the WAC pulled the unthinkable overtime upset against Oklahoma in their BCS Bowl game last year, Fellow BCS buster Utah won by four touchdowns in their Fiesta Bowl opportunity against Pitt. Georgia has a location advantage and they have played as well as any team in the country over the second half of the season.

Fiesta Bowl Odds: Oklahoma -5.5 vs. West Virginia.
Will the Mountaineers have any lingering hangover effect following their final week meltdown at home against Pitt that cost them a spot in the national title game? In theory, the Sooners defense should match up very well against West Virginia’s one dimensional attack.

Orange Bowl odds: Virginia Tech -3.5 vs. Kansas.
I didn’t bet against the Jayhawks all year long, but I’ll consider it here. Virginia Tech was my choice to play in the national title game, as hot as any team in the country. Kansas got outclassed in their only game against a Top 25 all year (Missouri) in their season finale.

International Bowl Odds: Rutgers -8 vs. Ball State.
Rutgers dominated the Texas Bowl last year, beating Kansas St 37-10. Will a matchup in Toronto against a MAC school motivate them the same way? Ball State faded down the stretch, and lost by double digits to both Illinois and Indiana in November, which doesn’t bode well for their chances here.

GMAC Bowl Odds: Tulsa Pk vs. Bowling Green.
The Hurricanes didn’t play a lick of defense all season, the single worst defensive team to get a bowl bid this year. Kevan Smith ran all over them in the C-USA title game; Utah ran all over them in the Armed Forces Bowl last year. BG ran for nearly 200 yards per game while winning and covering five of their last six.

BCS Championship Game Odds: LSU -1 vs. Ohio State.
Ohio State was embarrassed by Florida in last year’s title game, and get a very rare chance for redemption. The last team to be in this spot was Florida, back in 1996. After the 11-0 Gators got bombed 62-24 by Nebraska in the ’95 Fiesta Bowl, Steve Spurrier’s squad got their redemption in ’06 with a 52-20 blowout win over Florida State in the Sugar Bowl.

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