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Free Week 4 NFL Football Picks & Predictions
NFL Kansas City vs. San Diego 
Take Kansas City Chiefs 
Chiefs +12 The Chiefs are catching way too many here for us to refuse. The Chiefs run the football and play a field position game which keeps the clock going and caters to a close low scoring affair. San Diego has not done anything offensively to get this much respect with this line. The Chiefs keep this one under double digits.

NFL Oakland vs. Miami 
Take Under 
1* on Oakland/Miami Under 42 There is one thing that is certain heading into this game: both teams put great defenses on the field. Miami’s defense will rebound after getting torched by New York last week when they hit their home turf in Florida Sunday. Oakland has faced much better offenses this year than the one they will be facing Sunday. Miami is rushing for less than 80 yards per game. The Dolphins can’t put up points being one-dimensional. Look for Miami to focus a bit more on the run, allowing for longer drives and keeping the T.O.P. in their favor. Oakland is averaging 160 yards per game on the ground. This is their bread and butter and they will be burning the clock all day in utilizing Lamont Jordan. The Under is 7-2 in the Dolphins’ last 9 games as a favorite. Miami is 6-0 Under in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 11-3 Under in their last 14 games as a road underdog. Take the Under 42 points in a defensive battle.

NFL Houston vs. Atlanta 
Take Over 
1 Unit on Houston/Atlanta Over 38.5 The Over is 6-1 in Houston’s last 7 games overall. The Houston offense has taken a gigantic leap with Matt Shaub at quarterback. They are averaging 26 points a game. Joey Harrington has improved every game despite Atlanta’s 0-3 record. You will see his best performance of the season against this unproven Houston defense. The Over is 10-4-1 in Atlanta’s last 15 home games. Houston is 10-2 Over against a poor defense that is allowing a completion percentage of 61% or worse over the last 3 seasons. Houston is 7-0 Over against a bad defense that is allowing over 5.65 yards per play over the last 3 seasons. Cash in with the Over 39 points Sunday. 

NFL Saint Louis vs. Dallas 
Take Dallas Cowboys 
3* on Dallas Cowboys -13 The Dallas Cowboys are clicking on all cylinders right now. Their offense is loaded and their defense is much improved. St. Louis can’t seem to get anything going offensively. The Cowboys are averaging 39 points per game while the Rams are putting up just 11 a game after 3 contests. St. Louis won’t be able to get much going offensively this week against this Wade Philips’ coached unit. The Rams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. The Cowboys allowed less than 90 yards rushing last week against Chicago. The Cowboys are 40-11 ATS in their last 51 games after allowing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game. Bet Dallas.

NFL Pittsburgh vs. Arizona 
Take Over 
Pittsburgh OVER 41.5 There’s no containing the Steelers offense right now. Arizona certainly doesn’t have the defense to do it. The Steelers are averaging 35.7ppg through the first three weeks. The Cards have also shown that they can be effective on offense averaging 21ppg. I think you’ll see their best offensive showing yet this season at home. We’ll take the OVER here as we have this one chalked up as a shootout. 

NFL Oakland vs. Miami 
Take Miami Dolphins 
Miami -4 The Raiders are a terrible road team and that’s why we have to give the Dolphins the edger here. Also, last season, Oakland’s defense appeared on the fringe of greatness, but it is giving up nearly 30ppg this season. Miami’s offense is improved and the defense is still there. We’ll take the fish to bounce back at home after a tough road loss to the Jets. 

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Free Week 5 College Football Picks & Predictions
NCAA Notre Dame vs. Purdue 
Take Purdue Boilermakers 
Purdue -22 Purdue joins the list of teams to thrash Notre Dame this week. Purdue’s spread offense will be very problematic for a young defense which returns just 5 starters. Why is Notre Dame so bad? They return just 9 starts total from last year’s team. Notre Dame is 0-6 ATS vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 58% or better. over the last 2 seasons. Take the Boilers

NCAA Colorado St. vs. TCU 
Take TCU Horned Frogs 
1* on TCU -10 TCU has owned the Colorado State Rams over the last 3 seasons. The Horned Frogs are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their last 3 meetings. TCU won by 31 and 27 points respectively over the last 2 seasons. They just have too much talent with the players they recruit in the state of Texas for Colorado State to compete. TCU is 37-18 ATS in their last 55 home games. Colorado State is 1-8 ATS in their last 9 contests overall. The Rams are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games as the underdog. TCU is 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a favorite. You will see how the Horned Frogs’ talent overwhelms CSU Saturday. Take TCU and lay the points.

NCAA Hawaii vs. Idaho 
Take Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 
1 Unit on Hawaii -25 Quarterback Colt Brennan will torch this Idaho defense in ’07 just like Hawaii has each of the last 3 seasons. Brennan threw for 333 yards and 5 touchdowns against Idaho last year. Hawaii is 3-0 straight up and ATS in their last 3 meetings. Hawaii covered this same 25.5-point spread last season in a 68-10 blowout over the Vandals from Idaho. Hawaii is 15-2-1 ATS in their last 18 games against a team with a losing record. Idaho is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. The Vandals will get embarrassed by Brennan and company once again this season. Cash in with Hawaii as the favorite.

NCAA Northern Illinois vs. Central Michigan 
Take Central Michigan Chippewas 
3* on Central Michigan -3 Central Michigan just doesn’t lose at home. This team will roll right over Northern Illinois on their home turf Saturday. Central Michigan is 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against a team with a record below .500. Dan LeFevour has already passed for nearly 1,000 yards in 4 games this season. This is an explosive Chippewas offense that put up 52 points on Toledo at home in their first win of the season. Chalk up win number two today over another 1-3 opponent in Northern Illinois. Bet Central Michigan.

NCAA Penn State vs. Illinois 
Take Penn State Nittany Lions 
Penn State -3 The Nittany Lions will bounce back this week against the Illini and really I don’t even see this game being close. Illinois is just 4-14 ATS in home games against teams who force 2.5 or more turnovers/game on the season since 1992. A tough loss at Michigan last week has left a sour taste in Penn State’s mouths and they will wash it out with a big win on the road. Lay the points.

NCAA USC vs. Washington 
Take USC Trojans 
USC -20.5 Washington is 6-22 ATS off a road loss against a conference rival since 1992 and 11-28 ATS off a road loss since 1992 period. USC is 33-14 ATS after scoring 42 points or more last game the past 15 seasons. The Huskies have been crushed by Ohio State and UCLA in back to back weeks. Now, you’re about to see how much better USC is than those teams. Lay the points. 

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by Stephen Nover of Covers Sports Handicappers

Pointspread history is being made this week. The Houston Texans are 3-point road favorites against the Atlanta Falcons.

It’s the highest the Texans have ever been favored away from home.

Since entering the NFL in 2002, the Texans have played in 41 road games. Only once have they been road chalk before this Sunday, and that was during the final game of 2005 when they were -1 at San Francisco.

Houston has lost 14 of its past 17 away matchups. But Texans quarterback Matt Schaub may not have his top wide receiver, Andre Johnson, or his best running back, Ahman Green. Both are battling knee injuries.

The 3-point spread is a testament to how bad the winless Falcons are perceived to be without Michael Vick.

Is this line too high?

“If you make it 2 ½ everybody is going to play Houston,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, the company that supplies betting odds to many of Nevada’s hotels. “Public perception is not real high on Atlanta. We make a line for the public.”

The Texans managed to get a backdoor cover or push, depending on the number, against Indianapolis on Sunday by scoring a touchdown with less than three minutes remaining. But just because the Texans beat a punchless Kansas City squad at home and upset Carolina on the road in Week 2, it may be dangerous to assume they suddenly have turned the corner and can win without two key playmakers.

The Falcons are averaging only 10 points per game, but their strength is rushing and they’ve faced three respectable defenses – Minnesota, Jacksonville and Carolina. The Falcons still have decent players on defense along with a solid 1-2 running punch of Warrick Dunn and Jerious Norwood to go with ascending wide receiver Roddy White.

The Texans also will be playing in a dome stadium on an off-surface for them. Houston was 1-3 last season on artificial turf.

One of the higher totals on this week’s card is St. Louis-Dallas at 46. LVSC’s recommended over/under on this matchup was 44 ½. The Cowboys are favored by 11 against the 0-3 Rams.

“I’m surprised this total is so high,” Seba said. “I don’t see a 46. I think the Rams are going to have problems versus the Dallas defense.”

Missing Pro Bowl tackle Orlando Pace and their best guard, Richie Incognito, the Rams have scored just 32 points. Marc Bulger is averaging 217 yards passing per game, a low figure for him, and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 2/3. Steven Jackson is averaging less than 100 all-purpose yards per game and has fumbled twice.

The highest over/under is on Monday’s New England-Cincinnati matchup, which opened 52 and is up to 52 ½.

“If you’re ever going to send out a high total this is it,” Seba said. “I don’t see the number (on the total) going down, just up.”

The Patriots have scored 38 points in each of their first three games. The team only has punted four times. Randy Moss has re-established his Hall of Fame credentials with five touchdowns and 403 receiving yards.

New England is a 7-point road favorite. LVSC’s send-out was Patriots -6.

“I thought six was too high,” Seba said. “But to be honest, we should have sent out seven. The Patriots are on such a roll. But how many times can you keep blowing teams out?

“I think it will close seven. I don’t think it will get up to 7 ½.”

The second-highest total is on the Eagles-Giants. The Eagles are 3-point road favorites and the over/under is 47 ½. The Giants have a porous secondary, while the Eagles have key injuries in their defensive backfield with Pro Bowl cornerback Lito Sheppard missing the last two games and All-Pro safety Brian Dawkins out last Sunday.

The linesmaker at LVSC made the line anywhere from a pick to Eagles -3. They cut the difference and sent out Philadelphia -1 ½.

“The line has to be less than three because of the way the Giants came back against the Redskins,” Seba said.

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By Sean Murphy, lead handicapper with The Miller Group of Covers Experts

It should come as no surprise that the NFL has been full of surprises through the first three weeks of the season. Who could have predicted that the Packers would sit at 3-0 while the Chargers and Bears find themselves at the bottom of their respective divisions. Here’s a quick recap of what went down on Sunday.

Cardinals at Ravens (-9, 35 ½) – Final: Ravens 26, Cardinals 23
The Ravens cruised for three quarters, but had to hang on for dear life in the final 15 minutes of a narrow 26-23 victory. Kurt Warner did an outstanding job in relief of an ineffective Matt Leinart, throwing for 258 yards and two touchdowns. Kyle Boller took over for an injured Steve McNair, and led the Ravens on the game-winning drive in the final 1:50 of the fourth quarter. Two 20-point quarters helped this one sail over the posted total.

Bills at Patriots (-16 ½, 41) – Final: Patriots 38, Bills 7
Even a 16 ½-point spread was no match for the Patriots as they laid a beating on yet another overmatched opponent. Randy Moss continued to flourish in his new surroundings, hauling in five catches for 115 yards and two touchdowns. Interestingly enough, this marks the third straight game in which the Patriots have scored 38 points. One of these weeks they’ll manage to top the total all on their own.

Lions at Eagles (-5 ½, 44) – Final: Eagles 56, Lions 21
Speaking of topping the total all on their own, the Eagles did that and then some on Sunday afternoon. After being dormant for the first two weeks of the season, Donovan McNabb and company had a breakout performance on Sunday. Lions QB Jon Kitna managed to throw for 446 yards, but could only find the end zone twice. Over backers were able to cash their tickets well before the conclusion of the first half.

Colts at Texans (+6 ½, 46) – Final: Colts 30, Texans 24
This one was close for a half before the Colts went ahead for good in the third quarter. We’re still not sold on this Indy defense. They looked vulnerable against a Texans squad that was without its top offensive playmaker, WR Andre Johnson. Texans QB Matt Schaub did an excellent job of spreading the ball around in his absence, completing passes to 10 different players.

Dolphins at Jets (-3, 36 ½) – Final: Jets 31, Dolphins 28
Jets backers couldn’t be too happy about the push as the Dolphins scored two unanswered touchdowns and a two-point conversion in the game’s final nine minutes. Ronnie Brown was the key culprit in the near-backdoor effort, rushing for 112 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries. This Jets team is going to have to find a defensive identity if they’re going to keep pace in the ultra-competitive AFC.

Vikings at Chiefs (-3, 34) – Final: Chiefs 13, Vikings 10
Many were expecting a snoozer, and that’s precisely what they got. Neither offense moved the ball with any consistency, and Chiefs RB Larry Johnson continued to befuddle those who picked him in the first round of their fantasy draft. The Vikings’ usually steady offensive line was anything but as they allowed five sacks against an average Chiefs front seven. The under was never in doubt as this one stayed 11 points below the posted total.

Chargers at Packers (+5 ½, 42 ½) – Final: Packers 31, Chargers 24
Here’s the one you’ve been waiting for; your sucker bet of the week. The Chargers are proof positive that you can’t just overhaul your entire coaching staff and expect to keep rolling along at a peak level. Let’s throw any notion that the Packers are a fluke out the window right now. Even though it’s only Week 3, they definitely have the inside track to the NFC North division title.

49ers at Steelers (-10, 37 ½) – Final: Steelers 37, 49ers 16
We heard a lot about the 49ers being a fraudulent 2-0 team heading into Week 3, and that certainly appeared to be the case as they were handed a sound beating by the Pittsburgh Steelers. While they have been helped by a rather weak early schedule, we’re not about to take anything away from the Steelers. This is a team that’s outscored the opposition 97-26 through three games. A 27-point fourth quarter sealed the deal for over backers.

Rams at Buccaneers (-3 ½, 38 ½) – Final: Buccaneers 24, Rams 3
So much for the Rams being a sleeper team in 2007. Scott Linehan’s underachieving bunch is off to an 0-3 start, and appears to be regressing each week. The Buccaneers have come alive in back-to-back home victories, covering the spread easily on both occasions. Over backers didn’t get any help from the Rams as this one stayed 11 ½ points below the posted total.

Bengals at Seahawks (-3, 49 ½) – Final: Seahawks 24, Bengals 21
It looked as if the Bengals were in line for an impressive road win after a Kenny Watson touchdown run put them ahead by four points with two-and-a-half minutes remaining. Unfortunately they still had to play some defense and, well, you know how that goes. A converted fourth down in Bengals territory set the Seahawks up for the game-winning touchdown, improving them to 2-1 on the season. The two teams fell just short of eclipsing the highest total on the board in Week 3.

Browns at Raiders (-3, 41 ½) – Final: Raiders 26, Browns 24
It only seems fitting that the Raiders put an end to their 11-game losing streak, but still failed to cover the spread. Phil Dawson had his 40-yard field goal attempt blocked in the final seconds of the fourth quarter, giving Raider Nation a reason to cheer for the first time in what seems like an eternity. The Browns have played over the total in each of their three games this season.

Jaguars at Broncos (-3 ½, 36 ½) – Final: Jaguars 23, Broncos 14
This could be called the sucker bet of the week – Part 2. It was baffling to see bettors line up to back the Broncos as 3 ½-point favorites after barely squeaking past the Bills and Raiders in their first two games. Jacksonville finally played up to its potential, leaning heavily on its ground attack to pull out the impressive road win. The over prevailed by the slimmest of margins.

Panthers at Falcons (+4 ½, 38) – Final: Panthers 27, Falcons 20
With Byron Leftwich waiting in the wings, Joey Harrington turned in one last masterful performance. Well, not exactly, but he did throw for 361 yards and two touchdowns in a losing effort. DeShaun Foster was the hero for the Panthers as he ran for 122 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries. You may be sensing a pattern as this one played comfortably over the total.

Giants at Redskins (-3 ½, 41 ½) – Final: Giants 24, Redskins 17
The Redskins built a 17-3 lead by halftime, but never scored again, eventually falling 24-17 to the rival Giants. Plaxico Burress was a game-time decision, but he was no worse for wear, catching five passes for 86 yards including the touchdown that put the Giants ahead for good. Reuben Droughns made the most of his three carries, scoring a pair of touchdowns.

Cowboys at Bears (-3, 41) – Final: Cowboys 34, Bears 10
Let’s not put all of the blame on Rex Grossman, after all … . On second thought, maybe now’s the time to join the angry mob. Let’s face it, Rex stinks. The Cowboys took advantage of three Grossman interceptions and pulled away in the second half, dropping the Bears to 1-2 on the season. Despite just six first-half points, the over prevailed by a three-point margin.

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GAME:  New York Giants @ Washington Redskins Sep 23, 2007 4:15PM
PICK:   Washington Redskins
SPORT: NFL Football Picks
Courtesy of: Bryan Leonard
REASON FOR PICK: Giants at Redskins: This Washington defense has impressed so far, a far cry from last year’s struggling unit. And the offense is balanced with an outstanding backfield punch of Portis and Betts. Speaking of struggling, the Giants have nothing but problems, with WR Plaxico Burress and QB Eli Manning hurting, no running game and a horrendous defense. They’ve given up 45 and 35 points! The home team should roll with ease. PLAY THE REDSKINS 

GAME:  Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders Sep 23, 2007 4:05PM
PICK:   over
SPORT: NFL Football Picks
Courtesy of: Ted Sevransky
REASON FOR PICK: Last year, the Raiders were shut out three times and held to ten points or less in half of their games. Oakland’s offense was so bad that they scored 20+ only four times all year (including a 24-21 loss to these same Browns). This year, with Josh McCown at quarterback, a vastly improved offensive line and a competent offensive coordinator calling the plays, the Raiders have scored 20+ in both of their first two games. And there’s little reason to expect the Raiders offense to slow down here against a Browns defense that has allowed 900 yards, 50 first downs and 79 points in their first two contests.

Last year, the Raiders finished with the #3 defense in the NFL. Those defensive stats were vastly inflated due to the fact that the Raiders were consistently being blown out before halftime, and opposing head coaches resorted to a very conservative gameplan with the lead, since they had nothing to fear from the Raiders hapless offense. This year, opposing offenses aren’t taking anything for granted against this defense, and we’ve seen the Raiders give up 59 points and 833 yards in their first two ballgames. Browns quarterback Derek Anderson threw five TD’s last week, and the Raiders defense lost key contributor, pass rusher extraordinaire Derrick Burgess, to injury.

Both of these teams are still undervalued in terms of their totals, in the betting marketplace based on last year’s anemic offensive showing. Neither defense is very good. Both teams have playmakers that can score quick strike touchdowns. And both teams have been very adept at the single most important thing for NFL totals bettors – turning field goal tries into touchdowns in the red zone. Don’t wait to bet this one, as this total has been drifting up all week, and you don’t want to miss the key # of 41. Take the Over.

GAME:  San Diego Chargers @ Green Bay Packers Sep 23, 2007 1:00PM
PICK:   San Diego Chargers
SPORT: NFL Football Picks
Courtesy of: David Malinsky
REASON FOR PICK: It does not take long for a team to fall out of favor in the NFL, and as such the kind of beating that these Chargers took in front of a national television audience last Sunday night puts us in the right place at the right time, and certainly at the right price, to step in here.

Did the nature of that loss tell us about major problems that this team possesses? No. The key to that one was that the weaknesses that they do have could be exploited fully by the Patriots – a secondary that is only average was overmatched against the New England receivers, and when forced into an early deficit the offense was turned inside-out, with too much of the burden falling on the shoulders of Philip Rivers as the flow took LaDanian Tomlinson away. And from a tactical standpoint, Bill Belichick vs. Norv Turner was an additional mismatch. So where does that drubbing leave San Diego? In our book, still as no worse than the #3 team in the entire league.

Now that matchups change this week. Can Brett Favre exploit the secondary? Not with his supporting cast. With Greg Jennings, James Jones and Bubba Franks all less than 100 percent there are few quality weapons to work with, and with such a young RB corps there is neither a ground game, nor the ability to pass block well enough to attack downfield through the air. Against the kind of pass rush that the Chargers bring, that becomes magnified this week.

With Vernand Morency still not able to go, the entire Packer ground game has consisted of rookies Bernard Jackson and DeShawn Wynn so far. They have had all 43 of the carries, and while their 3.1 per rush is anemic, it has been even worse than that – take away the 38-yard TD burst by Wynn against the hapless Giant defense and it falls to 2.3 And with their inexperience in pass protection it is not easy too look down the field – the Packers are getting only 9.5 yards per completion, which ties them for 29th in the NFL. Quite simply, this is a bad matchup for the offense.

It does not get much better for the home team on the other side of the ball. The Packers are allowing 4.4 per rush and only have three sacks in 76 pass attempts by the opposition, which means a chance for the Chargers to finally break out as they step down in class off of the Chicago and New England defenses. And there are injury issues in that side of the ball for Green Bay as well, with Al Harris (back) and Charles Woodson (hip) missing significant practice time this week. Both are expected to play, but the chemistry and cohesion needed against this type of opponent gets hampered by the inability to prepare properly, and when wounded CB’s are going to have to step up in run support against Tomlinson it can make for a long afternoon.

GAME:  Minnesota Vikings @ Kansas City Chiefs Sep 23, 2007 1:00PM
PICK:   Kansas City Chiefs
SPORT: NFL Football Picks
Courtesy of: Stephen Nover
REASON FOR PICK: It seems hard to believe nowadays, but the Kansas City Chiefs actually were a playoff team last season.

Now they are a desperate 0-2 team hosting the offensively-challenged Minnesota Vikings.

Sounds like a good spot for Kansas City. It’s the Chiefs’ first home game of the year. They’ve covered 19 of their past 26 home openers.

The Vikings are a dome team going to an outdoor, grass stadium at perhaps the toughest road venue, Arrowhead Stadium. Not only is the spot bad for Minnesota, but so is the situational aspect. Aside from the Chiefs desperately needing a victory, the Vikings are in a division sandwich off an overtime road loss to the Lions and with a home game looming next week against the Packers.

The Chiefs defense has forced six turnovers. They get back their best pass rusher with Jared Allen returning from suspension and face a rusty career backup quarterback in Kelly Holcomb. He lasted played in a regular-season game in 2005.

The Vikings’ run defense still is strong, but it’s not dominant like last year ranking sixth. Larry Johnson, behind an offensive line that should be fired-up, is ready to produce numbers in Week 3 after a prolonged holdout.

The Vikings have limited firepower and much of that firepower is ailing. Chester Taylor may miss a second straight week, while wide receiver Troy Williamson and fullback Tony Richardson also are less than 100 percent.
 
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Free Week 3 NFL Football Picks & Predictions
NFL Minnesota vs. Kansas City 
Take Under 
Chiefs UNDER 33 The Chiefs and the Vikings both play a run-oriented style which focuses on controlling the clock, field position, and not turning the ball over. This will without a doubt be one of the most boring games this week. KC is 7-0 UNDER in September games over the last 3 seasons and Minnesota is 8-1 UNDER in the first month of the season over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER cashes in this one.

NFL San Diego vs. Green Bay 
Take Green Bay Packers 
1 Unit on Green Bay Packers +6 The early public movement is favoring the Chargers and this makes the Green Bay Packers a very tempting choice today. We will pull the trigger on the Pack Sunday. Green Bay’s defense is one of the most underrated in the league this season. Ladanian Tomlinson has only 65 yards rushing in two games this year. The Packers defense has plugged the run in their first two games and they will do enough to contain LT today. Brett Favre looks as good as he has in 3 years. This Packers offense has more than enough firepower to stay with San Diego. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog. Favre and company love the role of the dog and they will come out barking today in a statement win over San Diego. Cash in with Green Bay as the underdog. 

NFL Indianapolis vs. Houston 
Take Houston Texans 
1* on Houston Texans +6 We will ride the Houston bandwagon today when they receive 6 points at home to the Indianapolis Colts. If you still don’t believe the Texans are for real than you will be a believer when this game is over. Houston has what it takes to knock off the Colts. A great running game with Ahman Green, one of the best passing attacks with Matt Shaub and Andre Johnson, and a get-after-it defense that can create turnovers will give the Colts fits all day long. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against the AFC South division. The Texans are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record. Take Houston and the points.

NFL Jacksonville vs. Denver 
Take Denver Broncos 
3* on Denver Broncos -3 This line is a joke with Denver only being 3-point favorites playing at Mile High Stadium Sunday. Denver did squeak by their first two games, but they still won. Jacksonville can’t seem to move the ball at all this year and the Denver defense will have their way with the Jaguar offense today. Denver has had two games to gel offensively and we are looking forward to their best output on this side of the ball Sunday against Jacksonville. Denver is 8-1 ATS after gaining more than 150 yards rushing in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons. Travis Henry is an animal in the backfield for Denver and he will run right over the Jaguars’ defense today. Bet Denver Sunday.

NFL Buffalo vs. New England 
Take New England Patriots 
Pats -16.5 The Patriots are on fire right now and the league gave them even more incentive to kick everyone’s butt. New England has won each of its first two games by 24 points and the Bills are coming off a 23 point blowout loss to Pittsburgh. The Patriots will hand the Bills its worst loss of the season this week. There will be no answer for New England’s offensive balance and Buffalo cannot score to keep pace. Lay the points.

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Free Week 4 College Football Picks & Predictions
NCAA Syracuse vs. Louisville 
Take Syracuse Orangemen 
Syracuse +37 We’ll gladly put a unit on ‘cuse catching nearly 40 points. Louisville’s defense is not even close to good. This play goes on Underdogs of 31.5 or more points (SYRACUSE) who are poor rushing teams averaging 3.25 or less rushing yards/carry, after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game. This system is an unbelievable 30-8 the last 15 years. Take the points. 

NCAA North Carolina vs. South Florida 
Take Over 
3* on North Carolina/South Florida Over 50 Last year’s score between North Carolina and South Florida ended in a 37-20 Bulls’ victory with 57 combined points. South Florida returns basically the same offense this season and we expect the Bulls to put up 40 points on a weak Tar Heels’ defense today. North Carolina is averaging nearly 30 points per game on offense this season. They will get their fair share of scores as well, but their defense will be allowing too many points to keep up in this game. The Over is 13-4-1 in North Carolina’s last 18 road games. The Over is 10-1-1 in the Tar Heels’ last 12 games after passing for more than 280 yards in their previous game. One thing is for sure Saturday, Bet the Over 48.5 points.

NCAA East Carolina vs. West Virginia 
Take West Virginia Mountaineers 
W. Virginia -24 West Virginia gets to play at home this week where they are at their best and we can expect an all out slaughter on the Pirates. West Virginia is 22-6 ATS when they rush for 6 or more yards per attempt since 1992, 10-1 ATS when they outgain their opponents by 2 or more yards/play over the last 3 seasons and 40-9 ATS when they gain 6.5 or more total yards per play since 1992. These 3 are as good as done against E. Carolina. Lay the number. 

NCAA Iowa vs. Wisconsin 
Take Iowa Hawkeyes 
Iowa +8 Coming off an embarrassing loss as huge favorites to an in-state rival, the Hawks will rebound with a solid performance this week. The Hawkeyes defense has been superb not giving up a TD this season and Wisconsin’s run-first approach play right into Iowa’s hands. Iowa is 22-7 ATS versus good rushing teams – averaging >=4.75 rushing yards/carry since 1992. Take the Hawks plus the points as they give the Badgers a big scare in Madison. 

NCAA Washington St. vs. USC 
Take Washington St. Cougars 
1* on Washington State +25 Washington State provided USC a big scare last year. The Trojans escaped with a 28-22 victory and you can bet Washington State will give USC another run for their money this year. The Cougars have one of the best quarterbacks in the Pac-10 Conference with Alex Brink leading the way. Brink has led the Cougars to a 2-1 record thus far while throwing for 947 yards and 10 touchdowns. That’s over 300 yards passing and over 3 TD passes per game. The Trojans are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. Washington State is 31-16 ATS in their last 47 road games during the first half of the season. This high-powered Cougars offense will put up plenty of points to stay within the number today. Take Washington State and the points.

NCAA Army vs. Boston College 
Take Boston College Eagles 
1 Unit on Boston College -27 Matt Ryan and Boston College have gotten off to a great start in Atlantic Coast Conference play this season. Now they take a long break from the league. Ryan hopes to boost his Heisman Trophy credentials Saturday when the 14th-ranked Eagles host Army in a non-conference matchup. Boston College moved to 3-0 in the ACC and overall with a 24-10 road win over then-No. 15 Georgia Tech last Saturday. Ryan threw for a career-high 435 yards and a touchdown for the Eagles, who also received two touchdowns from running back L.V. Whitworth. Boston College also shut down Georgia Tech running back Tashard Choice, limiting him to 31 yards. Boston College could win this game by 50 points with the offense they put on the field at home against Army today. Boston College is 6-0 ATS in home games after a straight up win over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games overall. Army is 5-24-1 ATS in their last 30 games after rushing for less than 100 yards in their previous game. Army won’t be able to move the ball on the ground today either. You will likely be counting your chips by halftime. Cash in with Boston College and lay the points.

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Normally when an NFL starting quarterback is questionable, oddsmakers are reluctant to post a pointspread on Monday.

But that didn’t stop linesmakers from putting up lines on the Vikings-Chiefs, Dolphins-Jets and Cardinals-Ravens matchups.

Then again, when the quarterbacks in question are Tarvaris Jackson, Chad Pennington and an over-the-hill Steve McNair, it doesn’t really make a difference, especially in the case of the Vikings’ Jackson.

Despite the uncertain status of Jackson who suffered a groin injury near the end of Sunday’s game against the Lions, it doesn’t matter. The Vikings play at Kansas City. Oddsmakers opened the Chiefs -2. Minnesota’s backup quarterback is Brooks Bollinger.

“There’s such little respect for Jackson that he’s treated like an entry with Bollinger,” said Las Vegas Sports Consultants senior linesmaker Dan O’Brien.

The LVSC oddsmakers opened Baltimore -8 1/2 hosting Arizona. O’Brien said McNair is worth 1 to 1 ½ points on the line, compared to his backup, Kyle Boller. Regardless of who plays, and McNair was talking on Monday like he’ll be able, O’Brien didn’t want to set the number above eight.

“They (the Ravens) play ball control no matter who the quarterback is,” O’Brien said. “I think anything above eight is too high. The Cardinals defense is much improved.”

Pennington also is worth 1 to 1 ½ points on the line compared to his backup Kellen Clemens, according to O’Brien. Nonetheless, bookmakers opened the Jets -3 hosting Miami without being sure who the starting quarterback will be. The LVSC oddsmakers believe public perception is high on Clemens.

“Clemens gets quite a bit of respect for being an unproven backup,” O’Brien said.

Based on their easy Week 2 victories, Pittsburgh and New England have high spreads. The Steelers are -9 hosting San Francisco (2-0). The line may get higher, too. People might be losing perspective hopping aboard the Steelers bandwagon so early. Pittsburgh has only played Cleveland and Buffalo.

“A lot of people seem to think the Steelers are back to where they were when they won the Super Bowl,” O’Brien said. “Being a 9 to 9 ½-point favorite is a function of that. I think ‘Frisco is a pretty live dog.”

There is reason to be enamored with the Patriots and oddsmakers know it. O’Brien and crew sent out to their Nevada hotels a recommended opener of New England -17 at home against Buffalo.

“It was 14, but we added 3 for cheating,” O’Brien said, tongue in cheek.

On a more serious note, O’Brien said about the largest pointspread so far this season: “It’s really a question of how much New England wants to score. The Bills’ many injuries are taking a toll on them.”

Tampa Bay opened -3 hosting St. Louis. Enough early money came in Monday to push the Buccaneers to -3 ½. The Rams losing their best tackle, Orlando Pace, and guard, Richie Incognito, have been factors in the team’s 0-2 start.

“Those injuries really have impacted Steven Jackson,” O’Brien said. “He looks like he could really struggle behind that (makeshift) line.”

In perhaps the worst matchup on Sunday’s card, the Raiders are 3-point home favorites against the Browns. The total is 40. Considering the Browns scored 51 points last week against Cincinnati, is this over/under too short?

No says O’Brien.

“Not against the Raiders defense and with the Raiders offense.”

Courtesy of Stephen Nover, A Covers Experts Sports Handicapper – Featured on Touthouse.com
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