Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St. Picks & Odds

Fresno State beat Kansas State 46-29 as a seven-point home favorite last Saturday, gaining 549 yards in the process. New Mexico State played two weeks ago at home against Utah State, and lost 35-17 as a 6.5-point home favorite.

 These teams have played twice, at least in recent memory. Last season Fresno State won by a 23-18 count, failing to cover as a 14-point favorite. The game went under the 60-point posted total. In 2005, Fresno State went to Las Cruces and beat New Mexico State 37-7, covering as a 27-point road favorite. The game went under the 58.5-point total.

ABOUT FRESNO STATE:
The Good News — A.J. Jefferson leads the nation in kickoff returns, averaging 35.8 yards and taking two back for touchdowns. And QB Tom Brandstater has come on strong, with 653 yards and seven TD’s with just one INT in the last three games. Running back Ryan Matthews has 767 yards rushing and is dangerous when healthy.

The Bad News — The Bulldog defense has intercepted just three passes. That’s the lowest figure in the country. Fresno State has also given up five yards a rush, which may not be a big factor against this pass-happy opponent.

FRESNO STATE TRENDS:
* FRESNO has covered five of its last seven games
* FRESNO has covered four of its last five road games
* FRESNO is 3-10 SU in its last 13 road games
* FRESNO has played four UNDERS in its last five road games

ABOUT NEW MEXICO STATE:
The Good News — Chase Holbrook has made the most of being in Hal Mumme’s wide-open system. He’s 71% on the season, for 3543 yards and 25 TD’s.

The Bad News — The defense has yielded almost 37 points a game and 267 yards per game through the air. And Holbrook has tossed 18 INT’s. The Aggies rank near the bottom in a lot of categories, including rushing offense (109th), pass efficiency defense (115th), kickoff returns (118th), turnover margin (113th), and tackles for loss (115th).

NEW MEXICO STATE TRENDS:
* NMSU has won five of its last seven home games SU
* NMSU is 10-20-1 ATS in its last 31 games
* NMSU is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a dog

THE BOTTOM LINE: New Mexico State puts less points on the board (24 ppg) than one might expect from an offense with their kind of passing stats. But with Fresno State so anti-opportunistic on the defensive side, perhaps Holbrook, with extra time to game-plan, finds some more room than usual. The Aggies’ defense will do its part against the surging Brandstater. We’ll look for a wild one, and go OVER the 67 points

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Week 13 NFL Picks: San Diego vs. Kansas City 
Take San Diego Chargers 
1* on San Diego Chargers -5.5 The Chargers have serious revenge on their minds after losing to the Chiefs at home earlier this season. San Diego plays a much weaker Chiefs’ team than they played back in September. They are without star running back Larry Johnson and without a healthy quarterback. The Chargers finally performed up to the level they should have been all season with a 32-14 thumping of Baltimore last week. The Chiefs lost to the Raiders at home just as I predicted, and now they will suffer back-to-back losses and an end to any playoff hopes they may have had. The Chiefs are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Chargers are 30-15 ATS in their last 45 games against poor offensive teams scoring less than 17 points a game. San Diego is too explosive for the Chiefs to keep it close Sunday. Take the Chargers and lay the points. 

Week 13 NFL Picks: New York vs. Chicago 
Take New York Giants 
1 Unit on New York Giants -1.5 The Bears are now without starting running back Cedric Benson just as he started to get things turned in the right direction. Chicago won their last game against the Broncos on the square shoulders of Devin Hester and his pair of return touchdowns. You think the Giants will be kicking the ball to Hester this week? There is no chance in hell this happens as New York will make the Bears try and beat them fair and square. The Giants will be playing with a little extra hunger after their loss to the Vikings last week. The Giants don’t mind going on the road this season with a 3-1 record and their only loss to the Cowboys, a superior team. The road team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between the Bears and Giants. This trend will stay true to its form as a better Giants’ squad beats up on the Bears in Chicago Sunday. Cash in with New York as the favorite. 

Week 13 NFL Picks: San Francisco vs. Carolina 
Take San Francisco 49ers 
3* on San Francisco 49ers +3 The 49ers have new life after beating the Arizona Cardinals in a thriller last week. They finally got back to their bread and butter with pounding the ball with Frank Gore and using play-action to set up big plays down the field. Look for more of the same this week against the banged-up Carolina Panthers. The Panthers have dropped 5 consecutive games after an embarrassing 31-6 loss to New Orleans last week. Ever since Jake Delhomme went down with an injury as their starting QB, this team just hasn’t been the same. Their defense suffers from being on the field too much with the offense’s inability to move the ball. The Panthers are just 2-10 ATS in home games the last 2 seasons. The 49ers are 13-2 ATS coming off 3 consecutive games against division opponents. Bet San Francisco on the road.

NFL Cincinnati vs. Pittsburgh 
Take Pittsburgh Steelers 
1 Unit on Steelers -7 We’ll take the Steelers at home behind a major system in their favor. Plays on home teams off 2 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two good offensive teams (23-27 PPG) are 29-6 ATS since 1983. That’s nearly an 83% win rate and 24 years of history on our side. Cincy has struggled against good offensive teams because its defense is lacking. The Bengals are just 1-9 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points/game over the last 3 seasons and 1-8 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. over the last 3 seasons. Pittsburgh on the other hand is 30-10 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 7 or more passing yards/att. since 1992. Lay the points as Pittsburgh’s wins this one comfortably. 

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GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS ODDS & PICKS

Preview The Duel in Dallas will pit Brett Favre, the old timer, against Tony Romo, who is quickly evolving in to the new, fun-loving playmaker that Favre used to be. This game will likely decide which team gets home-field advantage throughout the playoffs so the stakes have never been higher in the regular season for either of these squads. The last time Dallas had a big game to win at home, they lost to the New England Patriots. Will the same befall them on Thursday against powerful Pack attack?

Green Bay Offense vs. Dallas Defense
The key for Green Bay will be getting Ryan Grant hot and out of the gates early, and that may be fairly easy considering that Brett Favre has been en feugo as of late. Since their Week 7 bye, Favre has averaged 328.2 yards through the air in the past five games, totaling 13 touchdowns and only two picks in the process.

Dallas’s slow secondary has allowed 217.0 yards per game, ranking them twenty-first in the league. The difficulty in covering Green Bay’s receivers, is that Brett Favre spread the balls out well between Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Ruvell Martin so it is difficult to throw double coverage at any one of the capable, and reliable, Packer catchers.

Green Bay racks up almost as many yards as Dallas does offensively. They are third I the league, averaging 380.4 total yards of offense per contest, and average 26.9 point per game. Dallas has to contain Ryan Grant, a third-stringer, and continue the reputation of their fourth ranked Dallas rush defense. The problem for Demarcus Ware and the fierce, Dallas front-seven will be dropping backers out of the box to cover the Green Bay receivers. This, in itself, will open up more room for Grant who is averaging 4.6 yards per carry.

Dallas Offense vs. Green Bay Defense
Romo is great, but Green Bay’s defense matches up very well against this scorching hot team. Hurting Dallas is that Terrell Owens is the only viable receiver. Terry Glenn and Patrick Crayton remain sidelined by injury. Dallas has the sixth-best passing offense, averaging 260.5 pass yards in Texas Stadium.

However, Romo and his depleted receiver set will have to contend with both Charles Woodson and Al Harris in the secondary. Harris played unbelievably against a similar player last weekend, shutting down Roy Williams of Detroit last week. Covering Jason Witten will be left to either Nick Barnett or A.J. Hawk, who are both incredibly good athletes, though not nearly as fast as Witten. Witten has 59 catches for 750 yards and has been a steady safety valve for Romo.

The Packers front-four generates a ton of pressure, and are athletic enough to overcome the size of Dallas’s offensive line. However, Romo is insanely quick and instinctive and escapes the pass rush extremely well. He has been sacked 16 times, but Green Bay has to be careful because flushing Romo out of the pocket usually puts him in his elements, since he loves bootlegging with broken plays and calling it off the cuff. Green Bay ranks eighteenth in the league, averaging 215.3 passing yards per game.

NFL Football Betting Trends
-Green Bay is 9-1-1 ATS this season
-Green Bay is 5-0 ATS on the road this season
-Dallas is 5-0 ATS at home this season
-Green Bay is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games playing Dallas
-Dallas is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay
-Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 home games against Green Bay

Final Verdict
The Dallas defense has always been a concern. Despite having the second most prolific offense in the league, Dallas still allows an absurd amount of points on the board. You can’t win championships with a defense that lets other teams stay in the game.

Brett Favre has a never-say-die attitude that plays until the final whistle. Plus, the magical season that the Packers are having hits Dallas at the perfect time. Favre is too much of a veteran to get rattled by a big game like this, and has all the tools to rip this secondary apart. Dallas lost the last big game at home, and the smart betting investor will put a stake in history repeating itself. Courtesy of Betus Syndication Feed.

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NBA Basketball Picks: Houston vs. Golden State 
Take Golden State Warriors 
1 Unit on Golden State +2 Fatigue catches up with Houston tonight on the road giving the Warriors the edge here. Golden State is on fire having won 7 of its last 8 games straight up and 6 of 8 ATS. Houston has played 5 games in the past week and will really struggle here against a team which runs and guns. Golden State is 22-10 ATS versus good teams, outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. The Warriors are 21-6 ATS in home games when playing 6 or more games in 10 days over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 ATS in home games when playing their 3rd game in 4 days over the last 2 seasons. Houston is just 4-15 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. Home court gives Golden State the edge in this spot. 

NCAA Basketball Picks: Gonzaga vs. Saint Josephs 
Take Saint Josephs Hawks 
1 Unit on St. Joseph’s -1.5 Saint Joe’s is led by preseason first-team selection Ahmad Nivins (16.6 ppg, 7.6 rpg), who led the Conference in field goal percentage (.631) last season. Coach Phil Martelli preaches defense and has four returning starters to work with. Pat Calathes and Rob Ferguson guarantees that SJU will once again be dominant on the boards. The 6-10 Calathes was very well-rounded as he was one of only two players in the league to rank among the top 20 in scoring (13.9 ppg), rebounding (7.1 rpg) Saint Joe’s already has four players averaging 11.5 points or better this season, making their offense very tough to contend with. Phil Martelli’s defensive philosophy will shut down Gonzaga tonight. Martelli is 52-38 ATS after allowing 30 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games as the coach of Saint Joe’s. Gonzaga is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games against the A-10. Saint Joe’s is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against the West Coast Conference. Cash in with Saint Joe’s as the favorite. 

NBA Basketball Picks: Denver vs. Los Angeles 
Take Los Angeles Lakers 
1 Unit on LA Lakers -5.5 We’ll pick on the struggling Nuggets on the road tonight. Denver has lost 3 of its last 4 games straight up and all 4 of those against the number. The Lakers were able to get off of their skid against the Sonics to pick up some momentum tonight, but they will have much more than momentum in their favor. Over the past 11 years, the Lakers have won 18 of 20 home matchups against the Nuggets, going 12-6-1 ATS. Denver’s problems have come on the defensive end, allowing 105.3ppg on the road. The Nuggets do not have a premier defender who can slow down a player like Kobe. Take the Lakers tonight.

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NBA PICKS: Houston vs. Phoenix 
Take Phoenix Suns 
1 Unit on Suns -6.5 Phoenix is in bounce back mode here after getting beat at its own game by Golden State on the road. The Suns will be looking to really take it to the Rockets at home where they are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS this season. Over the last 3 seasons, the Suns’ up-tempo style of play has tortured the halfcourt oriented Rockets. Phoenix is 7-1 straight up and 8-0 ATS versus Houston over the last 3 seasons. The Suns are a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS at home during that span. The Rockets are 9-26 ATS after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons. The Suns are 14-4 ATS off an upset loss as a road favorite over the last 3 seasons and 13-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or more in the first half last game over the last 2 seasons. Take the Suns! 

NCAA PICKS: Saint Louis vs. Kent State 
Take Saint Louis Billikens 
1* on Saint Louis +5 Head coach Rick Majerus bring his success into Saint Louis this season and it’s already paying major dividends. Utah’s former coach led the Utes to 10 NCAA Tournament appearances in 13 seasons including 10 conference championships along the way. The Billikens will likely make the NCAA Tournament this season under the guidance of Majerus as their head man. Tonight Saint Louis takes their experience in 4 returning starters into Kent State. Saint Louis is giving up just 57 points a game on the road and their defensive efforts this season have kept the Billikens in every ball game. The Billikens are a great rebounding team and are 13-4 ATS after giving up 9 or less offensive rebounds in consecutive games. Saint Louis is 6-0 ATS in road games after giving up 60 points or less in consecutive games the last 3 seasons. Take Saint Louis and the points. 

NCAA PICKS: Illinois – Chicago vs. Central Michigan 
Take Illinois – Chicago Flames 
1 Unit on Illinois-Chicago +4.5 Illinois-Chicago finds themselves an underdog tonight against 0-4 Central Michigan. Illinois-Chicago beat this same Central Michigan team 84-62 last season in a blowout. Central Michigan is lacking chemistry offensively and that is a big reason why they are yet to get a win this season. Central Michigan is 5-15 ATS after two straight games with 12 or less assists the last two years. Central Michigan is 3-13 ATS in home games after playing 3 straight non-conference games. Illinois-Chicago has played 3 tough games in a row against Winthrop, Charlotte and Wichita State. This game against Central Michigan will be much easier competition and they will steal a road win in a game where they really shouldn’t be the dog. Cash in with Illinois-Chicago as the underdog. 

NBA PICKS: Cleveland vs. Detroit 
Take Cleveland Cavaliers 
1 Unit on Cleveland +9 I know that Cavs played last night and Detroit will be fresher, but Cleveland is getting too many points here and we’ll take advantage. Cleveland is rolling, having won 4 in a row. And last night’s win over Boston’s big three grows their confidence even more. The road has not done the Cavs in either as they are 5-3 straight up and ATS this year. The Pistons are just 3-8 ATS this season, squeaking past opponents by the skin of their teeth and the oddsmakers continue to overvalue them. The Cavs have won their last 4 games against the Pistons and we’ll take them tonight catching plenty of points. 

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Week 13 NFL Power Ratings / Rankings – Up to and including games played Monday November 26th 2007

Note: The BGS Brian Gabrielle Sports Power Ratings are recognized as the oldest and most reliable Gambling Power Ratings in existence. The following are not opinion polls like the AP or USA Today and are not politically influenced like Sagarin and other BCS ratings. The below ratings are the UNBIASED BGS Power Rankings designed specifically for determining expected RAW pointspreads.

Free NBA Basketball Picks: Memphis vs. New Jersey 
Take Memphis Grizzlies 
1 Unit on Memphis +6.5 Memphis has covered the spread in 6 of its last 8 games and we like the Grizz catching points here tonight. New Jersey is a pathetic 1-10 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog over the last 3 seasons and 7-20 ATS versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Memphis is an impressive 25-10 ATS in road games against Atlantic division opponents since 1996 and 21-6 ATS in road games versus foul prone teams called for 24 or more fouls/game over the last 3 seasons. Memphis is an explosive offensive team. New Jersey is scoring almost 8 fewer points than it is giving up at home this season. We’ll take the Grizzlies here. 

Free NBA Basketball Picks: Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee 
Take Philadelphia 76ers 
1* on Philadelphia 76ers +7.5 The 76ers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 meetings with Milwaukee. Milwaukee is on a solid run right now, but this is a big letdown spot for the Bucks after beating Dallas and the Lakers in consecutive home games. It will be tough for the Bucks to get up for the 76ers tonight and we wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Philly steals a win in Milwaukee Tuesday. The underdog is 14-6-1 ATS in the last 21 meetings between the Bucks and 76ers. The 76ers are 19-9 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive losses the last 2 seasons. Take the 76ers and the points. 

Free NCAA Basketball Picks: Georgia Tech vs. Indiana 
Take Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 
3* on Georgia Tech +10 Indiana should not be favored by double digits at home tonight. The Hoosiers are fresh off a 15-point blowout loss to Xavier on Saturday. Georgia Tech has had plenty of rest heading into this game. They last time they played was the 19th of November so you can bet they are antsy to hit the floor again tonight. Indiana is 3-13 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite. Indiana is 0-7 ATS in home games after playing two consecutive games as a favorite over the last 3 seasons. Take advantage of this line mistake set by oddsmakers Tuesday and Bet Georgia Tech on the road.

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CLICK HERE FOR WEEK 13 NFL ODDS, LINES & SCORES
by Stephen Nover of Covers Sports Handicappers

All season long bookmakers were looking to get a break from Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots and their adoring betting public.

Did they finally get one this past Sunday night when the Pats didn’t come close to covering a 24-point spread in a 31-28 win over Philadelphia?

Not really.

“When the Patriots play a disappointing game like that, you have to be concerned that Belichick is going to really run it up so you have to make the next game’s spread higher,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

The linesmakers at LVSC sent out an opener of New England -21 at the Baltimore Ravens. The betting line on Monday was Patriots -20. Since this is the Monday night matchup, the guess is the line is going to close higher.

The Ravens are 1-10 against the spread this season. Their quarterback is Kyle Boller – and he’s an upgrade on a gallant but washed-up Steve McNair.

The once-formidable Baltimore defense has allowed 124 points in its last four games, an average of 31 a game. The Patriots are on a record scoring pace averaging 40.2 points per contest. New England’s defense ranks No. 3. They lead the NFL in turnover ratio at plus-13, while the Ravens are tied for last in takeaways/giveaways at minus-nine.

“The Ravens can’t compete anymore,” Seba said. “You have to figure New England can come in and name its score.”

Seba said he could see the number rising to 21 or even 22.

“I don’t think it would get past 21 ½ or 22,” he said. “That would be the highest.”

The LVSC oddsmakers recommended an opening line of Minnesota Vikings -4 ½ at home to the Detroit Lions. Most bookmakers chose to open the Vikings a field goal favorite. On Monday the line was nearing 3 ½ with many places listing Minnesota -3 with -$1.25 juice instead of the normal -$1.10 vigorish.

“It’s a case of two teams going in different directions,” Seba said about why LVSC believed the Vikings should have opened higher. “Detroit is reeling. The Lions aren’t a bad team, but psychologically they can’t be too confident.”

The Lions have dropped three in a row after a 6-2 start. The Green Bay Packers exposed Detroit’s weak secondary and lack of pass protection. The Lions have given up a league-high 47 sacks.

Star rookie Adrian Peterson is expected to play after missing the past two games because of a knee injury. Even if Peterson can’t go, Seba said he only would make a 1-point line adjustment because the Vikings have another quality runner, Chester Taylor.

The San Diego-Kansas City line has Seba perplexed. The Chargers are 4 ½-point road favorites. Seba’s line was San Diego -7.

“I don’t get it,” he said. “Kansas City can’t do anything. I don’t know how the Chargers can’t be at least 6-point favorites. They have revenge and an urgency to step it up.”

Bettors, though, may justifiably be leery of the Chargers on the road. The Chargers are 1-4 straight-up and against the spread this season away from home. They also have a sad history at Arrowhead Stadium, losing nine of their past 10 there.

LaDainian Tomlinson has achieved many milestones, but he has failed to rush for 100 yards in his past four games.

Oddsmakers are closely monitoring the Tampa Bay-New Orleans matchup because of the physical condition of Buccaneers quarterback Jeff Garcia. He missed most of Tampa Bay’s victory against Washington last Sunday because of a back injury.

The Saints opened -3 with extra juice, but the line would jump up if Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden is forced to start Bruce Gradkowski instead of Garcia.

“The line climbs to 5 or 5 ½ if Garcia is out,” Seba said. “Tampa wins with defense and a ball control offense. Garcia is a master of that. Gradkowski can’t make a third-and-seven. Garcia can.”

Linemakers also are keeping an eye on the Philadelphia Eagles’ quarterback situation. Some believe there is no difference anymore between Donovan McNabb and backup A.J. Feeley following Feeley’s fine performance versus New England.

“I think he (McNabb) is still a point or 1 ½ points better,” Seba said, “at least perception-wise if not performance-wise.”

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Monday Night Football Preview: Pittsburgh vs. Miami Betting Picks and Odds

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When the Pittsburgh Steelers (-16) strap it up at home on Monday Night Football the NFL betting community supporting them has made a fortune, as the black and gold looks for more cash against the pathetic winless Miami Dolphins (+16).

The Steelers are 12-0 SU (straight up) at home on Monday night since a 23-20 loss to the New York Giants in 1991. If Pittsburgh is to keep the streak alive and build on the 7-3 SU and 6-4 ATS (against the spread) record they may have to do so minus two key players.

The Steelers are expected to be without playmakers on each side of the ball. Santonio Holmes, who leads the team in receptions (39), yards (664) and touchdowns (7), suffered a high ankle sprain against the Jets last week in a 19-16 overtime loss as the 9-point favorites. Safety Troy Polamalu sprained his knee, and is listed as doubtful along with Holmes.

The Steelers’ defense, the league’s best in points (14.5) and yards (236.2) allowed per game, should have its way against a Miami offense that’s scoring just 18.3 points per game.

Offensively for Pittsburgh, they’re putting up a league’s fifth-best 26.9 points per game and 348.3 yards.

Steelers’ quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, whose 107.5 passer rating is second in the league, has been sacked 26 times in the last seven games. But that shouldn’t continue against Miami who’s collected only 12 sacks this season, which is third least in the NFL.

- Steelers are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 12.
- Steelers are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games in November.
- Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss.
- Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

The Dolphins’ defense has allowed a league-worst 154.9 rushing yards per game, and has given up an average of 27.4 points to rank among the NFL’s worst.

A Miami loss would put them well on their way to joining the 1976 Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the only winless teams in league history. Not only are the Dolphins 0-10 SU, they are also a money-dropping 2-5-3 ATS on the year.

- Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games in Week 12.
- Dolphins are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games in November.
- Dolphins are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Dolphins are 4-12-2 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC.

Miami leads the all-time series 11-10 SU. The Steelers have won the last two meetings SU and ATS, including a 28-17 victory on Sept. 7, 2006, when Pittsburgh received its championship rings for winning Super Bowl XL.

NFL odds list Pittsburgh the 16-point favorites with a game total of 40½.

- Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
- Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
- Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater.

Analysis: Willie Parker, the AFC’s leading rusher, will have a huge night for the Steelers versus a non-existent Miami run defense. However, Pittsburgh struggles covering large spreads at home. Expect a victory by the Steelers SU but a Dolphins cover.

Analysis Courtesy of BetUs News Feed.

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NBA Picks: Phoenix vs. Golden State 
Take Phoenix Suns 
1 Unit on Phoenix -5.5 Phoenix will feel right at home in this one as the Warriors also like to play an up-tempo style of basketball. There’s just one problem for Golden State, Phoenix is better at it. The Warriors are giving up 112.2ppg at home this season. Bad defensive teams just don’t survive the Suns. The Suns are 19-6 ATS as a road favorite of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons and 24-9 ATS in road games first half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Phoenix is on a roll having won 8 in a row and 4 of its last 5 against the number. The Suns will be too much for Golden State tonight. Lay the points.

NBA Picks: Houston vs. Los Angeles 
Take Los Angeles Clippers 
1 Unit on LA Clippers +7 Houston is really struggling having lost 6 of its last 7 straight up and 6 of 8 ATS. The Clipps are struggling too, but we like them at home tonight considering the close nature of this series of late. 5 of the last 6 games in this series have been decided by 5 points or less. The one that wasn’t was an 8 point win for the Clippers. Houston is just 2-5 ATS on the road this season and just 7-17 ATS after scoring 105 points or more over the last 2 seasons. We’ll take the points here.

NBA Picks: San Antonio vs. Sacramento 
Take San Antonio Spurs 
3* on San Antonio -6.5 San Antonio has beaten Sacramento in 7 consecutive meetings. Six out of the seven match-ups were won by at least 7 points. This spread is very small even with the Spurs going on the road. The Spurs are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The Spurs are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win of more than 10 points. San Antonio is 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 games as a favorite. The Kings are still without Mike Bibby and Shareef Abdur-Rahim and they can’t compete with the Spurs without their best players. Bet San Antonio on the road. 

NBA Picks: Minnesota vs. New Orleans 
Take Minnesota Timberwolves 
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +11 The Minnesota Timberwolves are off to an ugly start this year but they won’t be going down to New Orleans by double digits Monday. The Hornets have lost 3 out of their last 4 games, getting beat by Utah by 28 points a few nights back. Ugly home losses to Indiana and Orlando indicate that the Hornets aren’t playing their best basketball right now. The underdog is 10-3 ATS in the last 13 meetings between Minnesota and New Orleans. The Timberwolves are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog. The Hornets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or greater. This spread is ridiculous Monday and we will cash in with Minnesota getting a big number as the underdog. 

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