Fresno St. vs. New Mexico St. Picks & Odds
Fresno State beat Kansas State 46-29 as a seven-point home favorite last Saturday, gaining 549 yards in the process. New Mexico State played two weeks ago at home against Utah State, and lost 35-17 as a 6.5-point home favorite.
These teams have played twice, at least in recent memory. Last season Fresno State won by a 23-18 count, failing to cover as a 14-point favorite. The game went under the 60-point posted total. In 2005, Fresno State went to Las Cruces and beat New Mexico State 37-7, covering as a 27-point road favorite. The game went under the 58.5-point total.
ABOUT FRESNO STATE:
The Good News — A.J. Jefferson leads the nation in kickoff returns, averaging 35.8 yards and taking two back for touchdowns. And QB Tom Brandstater has come on strong, with 653 yards and seven TD’s with just one INT in the last three games. Running back Ryan Matthews has 767 yards rushing and is dangerous when healthy.
The Bad News — The Bulldog defense has intercepted just three passes. That’s the lowest figure in the country. Fresno State has also given up five yards a rush, which may not be a big factor against this pass-happy opponent.
FRESNO STATE TRENDS:
* FRESNO has covered five of its last seven games
* FRESNO has covered four of its last five road games
* FRESNO is 3-10 SU in its last 13 road games
* FRESNO has played four UNDERS in its last five road games
ABOUT NEW MEXICO STATE:
The Good News — Chase Holbrook has made the most of being in Hal Mumme’s wide-open system. He’s 71% on the season, for 3543 yards and 25 TD’s.
The Bad News — The defense has yielded almost 37 points a game and 267 yards per game through the air. And Holbrook has tossed 18 INT’s. The Aggies rank near the bottom in a lot of categories, including rushing offense (109th), pass efficiency defense (115th), kickoff returns (118th), turnover margin (113th), and tackles for loss (115th).
NEW MEXICO STATE TRENDS:
* NMSU has won five of its last seven home games SU
* NMSU is 10-20-1 ATS in its last 31 games
* NMSU is 7-18-1 ATS in its last 26 games as a dog
THE BOTTOM LINE: New Mexico State puts less points on the board (24 ppg) than one might expect from an offense with their kind of passing stats. But with Fresno State so anti-opportunistic on the defensive side, perhaps Holbrook, with extra time to game-plan, finds some more room than usual. The Aggies’ defense will do its part against the surging Brandstater. We’ll look for a wild one, and go OVER the 67 points
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