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by Stephen Nover of Covers Sports Handicappers
The Baltimore Ravens’ quarterback play has been so putrid the team opened a 3-point home underdog to the Cleveland Browns. It’s the first time the Browns have been favored at Baltimore since rejoining the NFL in 1999.

“You keep waiting for the Ravens to play better, but it doesn’t happen,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants. “Baltimore just can’t score.”

The Ravens managed a measly seven points Sunday against Cincinnati’s beat-up defense. Backup quarterback Kyle Boller led the meaningless touchdown drive after Steve McNair failed to generate any points during eight possessions. Baltimore has scored more than 14 points only once in its past six games.

“Baltimore’s offense is so bad that the total is 43 ½,” Seba said. “The total would be a lot higher if it was just about any other team playing Cleveland.”

McNair is washed-up. He remains the nominal starter only because Ravens coach Brian Billick has so little confidence in Boller.

How about a movement to start third-string rookie Troy Smith, last year’s Heisman Trophy winner? Sure Smith isn’t ready. But could he do worse than McNair or Boller? At least there might be a little excitement at the quarterback position.

The Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in a possible ambush spot, traveling to take on the New York Jets after winning three consecutive division games. The Steelers fortified their AFC North lead by sneaking past the Browns.

The Jets, on the other hand, were idle this past week. The team is excited about the potential and arm strength of new starting quarterback Kellen Clemens.

“Teams off a bye seem to play well,” Seba said. “We really take a look at that when making the line.”

The Steelers were either nine or 9 ½-point favorites on Monday morning. Seba said Pittsburgh would have been double-digit chalk if the Jets weren’t coming off a bye.

Dallas is a strong 10 ½-point home favorite against Washington. The Cowboys are second in the league to New England in points (averaging 32.9) and yards (averaging 396.6).

“The Cowboys are a public team; everybody plays them,” Seba said. “So you have to inflate them a bit. If it weren’t for the Cowboys (covering against the New York Giants), the sportsbooks would have raked it in Sunday.”

Green Bay is another public team. The Packers are whopping 10-point home favorites against the quarterback-challenged Carolina Panthers. It has been five years since the Packers were a double-digit favorite.

“It doesn’t look right,” Seba said about the line. “But you can’t deny the results. Would you want your money on Carolina right now? The Panthers are a very hard team to back.”

Like the Ravens, the Panthers have serious issues at quarterback where starter Jake Delhomme is out for the season. Carolina coach John Fox’s quarterback choices are 44-year-old Vinny Testaverde, whose limited mobility is made even worse by an Achilles’ tendon injury, shell-shocked and totally ineffective David Carr, and undrafted rookie Matt Moore.

That unholy trio has turned franchise wide receiver Steve Smith into a non-entity. On top of that, the Panthers’ No. 1 running back, DeShaun Foster, has a turf toe injury.

Speaking of injuries, the battered Indianapolis Colts opened as 14 ½-point home favorites against the Kansas City Chiefs.

Despite Peyton Manning throwing six interceptions, Adam Vinatieri missing two field goals and numerous players out with injuries, including Marvin Harrison and Dallas Clark, the Colts nearly beat the Chargers in San Diego. The Chiefs lost to Denver at home by 16 points.

“If the Colts weren’t so banged up the line would be -16,” Seba said. “The Chiefs really have nothing. They showed how pathetic they are against the Broncos.”

It was just the third time in its last 17 games that Denver covered the spread. The Broncos opened as a field-goal favorite at home against Tennessee in the Monday night game. The line was at -2 on Monday.

“The Broncos -3 was too high,” Seba said. “I think it will close 2 ½.”

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Monday Night Football Picks
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks Nov 12, 2007 8:30PM
Courtesy of Bryan Leonard, A Covers Experts Sports Handicapper

Oddsmakers have made this total low because the reputations of these teams are power running offenses behind Shaun Alexander and Frank Gore. However, both those workhorses are badly injured. Gore has a sprained ankle while Alexander has had all kinds of problems and is barely practicing. Seattle coach Mike Holmgren’s announced a plan of relying more on the passing game in the second half of the season because of the continuing problems with the running game. The Seahawks are 3-1 at Qwest Field this season, where they are averaging 23.5 points. More passing means more scoring and less time taken off the clock on incompletions. These are also two of the weaker defensive teams in the league, with Seattle ranking 17th in total defense and San Fran 20th. Seattle is 25th against the pass. The 49ers defense has been in a mess since losing LB Manny Lawson. Losing Lawson after two games hurt the pass rush and perimeter defense against the run. San Fran is giving up 26 ppg on the road where their games have averaged 42 points. PLAY THE 49ERS/SEAHAWKS OVER THE TOTAL

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By Sean Murphy, lead handicapper with The Miller Group of Covers Experts
Home cooking didn’t pay off this week as the road teams dominated, winning nine of 13 games on Sunday. From a betting standpoint, underdogs took home the loot, going 8-4-1 ATS.

The Seahawks and 49ers will close out Week 10 on Monday night, but before that, let’s recap Sunday’s action:

Falcons at Panthers (-3 ½, 35 ½)
Final: Falcons 20, Panthers 13
The Falcons have quietly become one of the league’s biggest cash cows, compiling a 6-3 ATS mark. Carolina looked lifeless as it suffered its third consecutive loss. If there’s one thing the Panthers have done well, it’s cash under tickets. Each of their last six games have stayed under the number.

Bills at Dolphins (+3, 41)
Final: Bills 13, Dolphins 10
This one quickly turned into a defensive battle. In the end the Bills once again broke the Dolphins hearts, sending them to their ninth straight loss. Buffalo’s seemingly rejuvenated offense could do little, but the Bills defense more than picked up the slack. Under backers enjoyed an easy payday as this one stayed 18 points below the total.

Browns at Steelers (-10, 46 ½)
Final: Steelers 31, Browns 28
The Steelers needed a big second-half rally to get past the Browns on Sunday. Cleveland did take home the cash as a 10-point underdog, improving to 7-2 ATS on the season. The Steelers haven’t been too shabby against the number themselves, cashing at a 6-3 ATS clip. The win gives Pittsburgh complete control in the AFC North.

Broncos at Chiefs (-3, 37 ½)
Final: Broncos 27, Chiefs 11
If you’re looking for the league’s biggest mystery, look no further than the Denver Broncos. A week after getting trounced 44-7 in Detroit, Denver rallied to hand Kansas City their second straight loss at Arrowhead. It looks like the Chiefs could be in for a rough ride the rest of the way with Larry Johnson sidelined.

Jaguars at Titans (-4 ½, 36 ½)
Final: Jaguars 28, Titans 13
Vince Young turned in his best passing day of the season, but it wasn’t nearly enough as the Jaguars walked into Tennessee and trounced the Titans. The Jags got three touchdowns on the ground and Quinn Gray took care of the football. That has become the Jags’ recipe for success without David Garrard. Jacksonville is now 5-2 ATS over its last seven contests.

Vikings at Packers (-5, 41)
Final: Packers 34, Vikings 0
The Vikings lost more than just the game on Sunday; they might have also lost running back Adrian Peterson. The rookie record-breaker went down with a knee injury in the third quarter. He was slated to have an MRI to determine the extent of the injury. The beat goes on for the Packers as they improved to 8-1 on the strength of three Brett Favre touchdown passes.

Eagles at Redskins (-3, 37 ½)
Final: Eagles 33, Redskins 25
This turned out to be the most entertaining game of the week. The Eagles and Redskins traded scores throughout the fourth quarter before Brian Westbrook sealed the deal with two scores in the final three minutes. It was a huge win for the Eagles. A loss likely would have dashed any playoff hopes in the ultra-competitive NFC. This game flew over the total thanks to a 30-point fourth quarter.

Rams at Saints (-10, 47)
Final: Rams 37, Saints 29
And then there was one. The Rams removed themselves from the ranks of the winless, dominating New Orleans for four quarters on Sunday. It marked the Rams’ first pointspread victory since back on Oct. 7 against Arizona. For the Saints, the loss put an end to a four-game winning streak and dropped them into a tie for second in the NFC South.

Bengals at Ravens (-3, 44 ½)
Final: Bengals 21, Ravens 7
The Ravens offense struggled to get anything going for the second straight week and the Bengals took full advantage. It’s not as if Cincinnati was able to do much on offense either. The Bengals won on the strength of seven Shayne Graham field goals. The Ravens fall to a woeful 1-8 ATS on the season.

Bears at Raiders (+3 ½, 38 ½)
Final: Bears 17, Raiders 6
The Bears appeared to be headed for their sixth loss of the season, trailing 6-3 with just four minutes remaining. That was when Rex Grossman, yes Rex Grossman, took over. The much-maligned QB led the Bears on two touchdown drives in the final three minutes, completing an improbable comeback. The Raiders will carry a five-game losing streak into Minnesota next Sunday.

Cowboys at Giants (+2, 47 ½)
Final: Cowboys 31, Giants 20
The NFC East appears to be no-contest as the Cowboys knocked off another divisional foe on Sunday in New York. At 8-1, Dallas now sits two full games up on the Giants for first place. Dallas also owns the tiebreaker having swept the season series. Tony Romo and Terrell Owens continued to make it look easy. Their last touchdown hook-up broke the hearts and bankrolls of under backers everywhere.

Lions at Cardinals (-2 ½, 45 ½)
Final: Cardinals 31, Lions 21
It’s official: the Lions own the strongest home-road dichotomy in the league as they once again got tripped up outside of Detroit. A week after dominating the Broncos, Detroit’s defense could do little to slow down the Cardinals, namely Larry Fitzgerald. He hauled in a pair of touchdown passes in leading the Cards to their fourth win, putting them right back into the NFC West hunt.

Colts at Chargers (+3 ½, 47)
Final: Chargers 23, Colts 21
The Chargers jumped out to a 23-0 lead and then held on for dear life for a narrow two-point victory over the Colts. Indianapolis looked dazed in the opening 20 minutes as Peyton Manning threw four interceptions, and the Colts special teams gave up a pair of touchdowns. The loss put an end to the Colts’ five-game ATS winning streak. A 14-point second half helped this one stay just under the posted total.

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2012 Week 11 NFL Office Pool Picks

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NBA Picks: Orlando vs. New York 
Take New York Knicks 
1 Unit on NY Knicks +1 The Knicks are playing good basketball so we will gladly grab them here at home catching a point. This is the fourth and final game of a road trip for Orlando and we expect the Magic to be worn down tonight because of it. New York will be well rested having not played since the 6th. Orlando is just 16-34 ATS in road games after playing 3 consecutive road games since 1996. The other problematic thing here for the Magic is NY’s ability to knock down threes. The Magic are just 42-76 ATS in road games versus teams who make 6 or more 3 point shots/game on the season since 1996. We’ll take the Knicks in this one

NBA Picks: Atlanta vs. Boston 
Take Boston Celtics 
1 Unit on Boston -9 The Celtics and their big three are taking the league by storm. Ray Allen, Paul Pierce, and KG are all playing with a chip this season as they go for that elusive championship trophy. Boston is 18-5 ATS after allowing 40 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1996. One thing that’s getting lost in all of this Boston hype is that this team is getting it done defensively.

NBA Picks: Milwaukee vs. Houston 
Take Milwaukee Bucks 
Milwaukee +9 This is a solid spot to take the points with the Bucks to pick up an easy win ATS. Houston is 4-1, but they have not made it look easy. The Rockets have scored under 100 in 4 of their 5 games and in the 80′s twice, making it quite clear to viewers that this team is still adjusting to new head coach Rick Adelman’s style of play. The Rockets are only 25-44 ATS as a home favorite the past 3 seasons. Milwaukee has won two straight to bring some nice momentum into Houston tonight. We’ll take the points in what we have figured to be a close game.

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NBA Basketball Picks: Detroit vs. Chicago 
Take Under 
1 Unit on Pistons UNDER 183 The Bulls are 65-41 UNDER when playing against a top-level team with a winning percentage better than 70 percent since 1996 and 35-14 UNDER in home games in November since 1996. Detroit is 19-7 UNDER in a road game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 3 seasons and 31-16 UNDER in road games after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons. The Pistons are holding their opponents to just 87.7 points per game this season. Chicago’s defense has not been terrible, holding its opponents to 95.7 points per game. 5 of the last 7 games played at Chicago have gone UNDER the number in this series. This is a big time rivalry matchup. We can expect both defenses to do the most damage tonight. Great UNDERS spot!

NCAA Picks: San Francisco vs. Oklahoma 
Take Oklahoma Sooners 
1 Unit on Oklahoma -16 San Francisco backers have taken a beating in Non-Conference play for as long as I can remember. San Fran is just 41-63 ATS in non-conference games since 1997. The Dons are 0-6 in road tournament games over the last 3 seasons. Oklahoma is a solid home team. Even last season when they struggled, the Sooners were 13-4 at home and 8-3 ATS in those games. Oklahoma is just too big and too athletic for San Fran. Lay the points.

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Free Week 10 NFL Football Picks & Predictions
NFL Picks: Philadelphia vs. Washington 
Take Washington Redskins 
1* on Washington Redskins -2.5 The Washington Redskins are one of the toughest teams in all of football. They put one of the best pass rushes in the league on their opponents. Donnovan McNabb was right when he said he wasn’t the only one that reporters should be blaming for the Eagles’ struggles this season. Philly has no receivers, as usual, and even worse their offensive line is one of the worst in the league. McNabb can’t excel if he has nobody to throw it to and no time to throw it. This is exactly what you will see again Sunday when the Washington defense puts all kinds of pressure on McNabb. The favorite is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings. The Eagles are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Philly won’t be able to run the ball on this defense Sunday either. The Redskins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings with the Eagles. They have this team figured out and will kick the Eagles while they are down Sunday. Take Washington and lay the points. 

NFL Picks: Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh 
Take Pittsburgh Steelers 
1 Unit on Pittsburgh Steelers -10 The Pittsburgh Steelers look like the same Super Bowl Champs they were a couple years ago. They put up 35 first half points against the Ravens last week on Monday Night Football. You can only imagine what they will do to the overrated Cleveland Browns Sunday. Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings with the Browns, winning by at least 11 points in every game they covered the spread. The Steelers won 34-7 over Cleveland earlier this season. The Browns are intimidated by Pittsburgh and it shows every time they face one another. Pittsburgh is 17-6 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons. The Browns are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0 points. This is not a good spot for Cleveland Sunday. Cash in with the Steelers as the favorite.

NFL Picks: Cincinnati vs. Baltimore 
Take Baltimore Ravens 
3* on Baltimore Ravens -4 The Baltimore Ravens will defend their home turf with a passion as they always do. The Ravens committed 6 turnovers against the Bengals in their first game of the season and still had a chance to send the game into overtime in the closing seconds. Now they get the Bengals at home and it’s going to get ugly in a hurry for Cincinnati. Not only are they struggling, but now they have to face a pissed off Ravens’ defense looking for revenge. The home team has won the last 4 meetings in this series. The favorite is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings between the Ravens and Bengals. Bet Baltimore at home.
 
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Free Week 11 College Football Picks & NCAA Football Predictions
NCAA Picks: Boston College vs. Maryland 
Take Maryland Terrapins 
1* on Maryland +6.5 Maryland has fallen victim to many close losses this season. They are a much better football team than their record indicates and they will kick Boston College while they are down this weekend. The Golden Eagles got their first taste of defeat against Florida State last weekend. Maryland is 9-3 ATS revenging a loss against an opponent from the year prior. Boston College is 1-8 ATS when playing a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons. Maryland is 15-4 ATS in home games off a road loss against a conference rival. All the life has been sucked out of Boston College and now the Terps will take advantage. Take Maryland and the points.

NCAA Picks: Florida vs. South Carolina 
Take Florida Gators 
1 Unit on Florida Gators -7.5 The Florida Gators have too much offense for South Carolina to stay within a touchdown Saturday. The Gators are scoring 40 points a game this season. South Carolina is only averaging 26 points per contest and that is a big reason for their QB controversy right now. South Carolina gave up 48 points to Arkansas last week and their defense just can’t hang with this Gator offense Saturday. Florida will pound the rock to set up play-action pass opportunities and easy scores. The Gamecocks allowed 542 rushing yards to the Razorbacks to tell you how poor their tackling is. South Carolina is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Florida is 26-11 ATS after playing a game at home. The Gators are a great road team, winning all but one road contest against LSU this season. Florida will put up over 50 points in this game which will be more than enough to cover the spread. Cash in with the Gators as the favorite.

NCAA Picks: Wake Forest vs. Clemson 
Take Clemson Tigers 
3* on Clemson -9 Clemson won last year’s meetings with the defending ACC Champs in Wake Forest 27-17 on the road. Now the Tigers get their shot at the Demon Deacons on their home turf in 2007. The Tigers have improved since last season with a proven QB in Cullen Harper leading the way. Wake Forest has taken a step backwards after their miracle season a year ago. Clemson is 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing less than 225 total yards in their previous game over the last 3 seasons. Clemson is scoring 49 points a game while giving up just 13.7 point per game in their last 3 contests. Wake Forest Head Coach Jim Grobe is 0-8 ATS off a loss by 3 points or less. Tommy Bowden is 15-4 ATS as the coach of Clemson when his teams allow less than 225 yards of total offense in their previous game. This Tigers’ defense is finally kicking it in gear to compliment their explosive offense. Bet Clemson at home.

NCAA Picks: UTEP vs. Tulane 
Take UTEP Miners 
UTEP -4.5 At 9-19 ATS in all games over the last 3 seasons, Tulane is quickly becoming a poor choice by sports bettors. The Green Wave has been even worse in conference play with a 2-10 ATS mark against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons. This history of Tulane being a bad covering team is not just recent. The Green Wave is just 15-31 ATS as a home underdog since 1992. Here’s their poison. Tulane is 0-7 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging 250 or more passing yards/game over the last 3 seasons. UTEP is a great offensive team and has pounding Tulane each of the last two seasons. Take the Miners here.

NCAA Picks: North Carolina vs. NC State 
Take NC State Wolfpack 
NC State -3.5 I like the Wolf Pack at home in this in-state rivalry game. NC State has won 3 straight games. It beat a very good East Carolina team on the road three weeks ago and a pair of ACC rivals (Virginia and Miami) the past two weeks to be knocking on the door of a bowl. The Pack have won 4 straight games ATS. The Tar Heels have lost 6 of their last 8 games and they don’t stand a chance this week. The Wolf Pack are on fire and a win here gets them one step closer to a bowl berth. The Heels are 0-4 in road games this season. The Wolf Pack is clearly playing better football at this stage of the season and they clearly have the momentum. All Wolf Pack at home.  

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The Patriots keep on raising the bar and now legitimate questions have to be asked. Are the 2007 Patriots the best team ever? Can any team mount a serious challenge? Is the Brady-Moss connection the best ever?One thing we know for sure is that none of those questions will be answered this week as the New England machine gets a week off.

BGS Power Ratings for the 2007 NFL Football Season through Week 10 including games of November 6/2007

Note: The BGS Brian Gabrielle Sports Power Ratings are recognized as the oldest and most reliable Gambling Power Ratings in existence. The following are not opinion polls like the AP or USA Today and are not politically influenced like Sagarin and other BCS ratings. The below ratings are the UNBIASED BGS Power Ratings designed specifically for determining expected RAW pointspreads.

The 2007 NBA season is now in full swing and New Orleans Hornets have established themselves early on as the team to beat by virtue of its 4-0 start.The Detroit Pistons Indiana Pacers Boston Cetics and LA Clippers are the other 4 remaining undefeated teams in the NBA to date.

On the other end of the spectrum the Chicago Bulls Golden State Warriors and Seatte Supersonics all have goose eggs in the win column after 4 games of play.

BGS Power Ratings for the 2007 NBA Basketball Season through Week 1 including games of November 6/2007

Note: The BGS Brian Gabrielle Sports Power Ratings are recognized as the oldest and most reliable Gambling Power Ratings in existence. The following are not opinion polls like the AP or USA Today and are not politically influenced like Sagarin and other BCS ratings. The below ratings are the UNBIASED BGS Power Ratings designed specifically for determining expected RAW pointspreads.

NBA Picks: Seattle vs. Sacramento 
Take Over 
1 Unit on Kings OVER 207.5 All offense and no defense in this one will drive the score easily OVER the number. The Kings are 18-7 OVER versus terrible defensive teams allowing 103+ points/game over the last 3 seasons, 14-4 OVER when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons, and 22-10 OVER versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game over the last 2 seasons. Sac is giving up 107.7ppg in the early going and Seattle is allowing 113.7ppg. Neither of these teams have shown any discipline on the defensive side of the ball. We’ll pound the OVER here.

NBA Picks: San Antonio vs. Houston 
Take San Antonio Spurs 
1 Unit on Spurs -2.5 With Houston’s offense not operating as smoothly as head coach Rick Adelman would like, the Rockets are going to have a tough time putting points on the board against the tough Spurs defense. Bowen will make life very difficult for T-Mac with his lock down defense. The Spurs have the bodies and the strategy to hold Yao in check. Expect Parker to really push the tempo to force Yao into a transition game which his 7’6” frame is not made for. Houston is just 10-25 ATS in home games versus good offensive teams scoring 99+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. Take the defending champs.

NBA Picks: Seattle vs. Sacramento 
Take Seattle SuperSonics 
1 Unit on Seattle +2 Without Mike Bibby and Ron Artest, the Kings won’t be able to compete with the offensively gifted Sonics tonight, let alone anyone else in the league until these two stars are back in the lineup. Seattle is 3-0 ATS at Sacramento over the last 3 seasons and 12-2 ATS as a road dog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Sacramento lacks the firepower on offense right now to stay in games. The wrong team is favored here and we’ll take advantage.

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