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The New England Patriots are making pointspread history just about every week. Their latest feat is opening as 25-point home favorites against the New York Jets.

The largest spread in NFL history is the Baltimore Colts -28 against the expansion Atlanta Falcons in 1966, according to research compiled by The Gold Sheet. The unbeaten Patriots probably will smash that mark next Sunday when they host winless Miami.

The scary thing is the Patriots probably are a bargain against the Jets. The line had settled at -24 on Monday afternoon. The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants thought Las Vegas hotels should open New England -26. Mike Seba, a senior oddsmaker for LVSC, made the number -27.

“I’d much rather be high than low on the Patriots, especially with a revenge motive,” Seba said.

Bill Belichick ran the score up on classy Joe Gibbs. He certainly won’t hold back facing Jets coach Eric Mangini, his former assistant and the man who blew the whistle on Belichick’s practice of stealing signs. The scandal resulted in a $500,000 fine for the New England coach and loss of a No. 1 draft pick.

“Who is going to bet the Jets at any price?” Seba said. “The only thing is bad weather. If the weather is decent the line can only go up.”

The Patriots dominated the Jets opening week, 38-14. That was before Spygate. The media figures to make a big deal of that as a sidebar issue to the matchup. Expect the public to back the Patriots as the week goes on.

Hopefully no Jets player will be as foolish as Pittsburgh defensive back Anthony Smith and predict a victory. Smith’s guarantee didn’t quite work out as well as Joe Namath’s Super Bowl boast. The Patriots beat the Steelers, 34-13, burning Smith twice for long touchdown passes.

“Maybe the Jets should try the opposite approach and guarantee a New England victory,” Seba said.

Miami is on the opposite end. The Dolphins opened +3 ½ hosting Baltimore, a team fresh off a 44-20 home loss to Indianapolis that wasn’t as close as the final score. Seba was prepared to open Baltimore -6 versus the Dolphins until the Ravens’ horrendous showing Sunday night.

The Dolphins, however, have turned in perhaps the two worst performances of the season during the last two weeks, losing 40-13 to the Jets and 38-17 to Buffalo.

“They don’t have the heart anymore,” Seba said of the Dolphins. “They’re a beaten team. They don’t have the players. Now they’re losing all their defensive players, who were the heart of the team.

“If the other team comes to play, the Dolphins have no chance.”

The Ravens may not have much heart or healthy bodies left either following a controversial loss to the Patriots at home two weeks ago and getting blown out by the Colts. The Ravens have only covered two of their 13 games this season.

Detroit is another down team. The Lions have gone from being 6-2 to 6-7. Jon Kitna would have been more accurate if he would have predicted the Lions would lose 10 games rather than win 10. The Lions are 10-point road underdogs to San Diego.

Seba believes that line is short. He made the Chargers -13. LVSC’s send-out number was Chargers -11.

“I would think there is no team more in the dumps right now than Detroit except for Miami,” Seba said.

The LVSC crew is right in line with offshore bookmakers on the Buffalo-Cleveland matchup, recommending Browns -5. The Browns were 5 ½ at most places Monday.

“This is basically a playoff game for the Bills,” Seba said. “You don’t want to get too high on Cleveland because of its defense and possible bad weather. I think 5 or 5 ½ is the right number. Six would be too high.”

The Colts were at -10 ½ on the road against Oakland. The line may be inflated because of the Colts’ recent strong showing on national television against the Ravens and the Raiders getting blown out by Green Bay, 38-7.

“If you make the Colts -9 ½ then they’re going to get bet up to 10, 10 ½ and 11,” Seba said. “We can’t put ourselves in that position. We have to inflate it so we made it 10 ½.”

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NBA Picks: Indiana vs. Cleveland 
Take Cleveland Cavaliers 
1 Unit on Cleveland Cavs -4 The Cavs have been taken to school of late, losing 6 in a row–5 of those were on the road. Now, they return home well rested and in a great bounce back spot. The reason for the 6 straight losses-Lebron’s absence. King James is expected to return to the lineup tonight and he will be out for blood. Cleveland is a perfect 4-0 straight up and 3-0-1 ATS versus the Pistons at home the past 3 seasons. Cleveland is 7-2 straight up and 5-2-2 ATS versus Indiana in all games the past 3 seasons. We like Cleveland dominance of the Pacers to continue with Lebron’s return. 

NBA Picks: Seattle vs. Chicago 
Take Chicago Bulls 
1 Unit on Chicago Bulls -8.5 Both the Bulls and Sonics are coming on strong after slow starts, but we like the Bulls at home tonight. This is the second game of Seattle 5-game road trip and a very problematic spot for the Sonics. A close loss at New Orleans brings them into this one with no momentum. Chicago has won 4 of its last 6 straight up and ATS. The key here is that Seattle is allowing 108.2ppg on the road this season. With Chicago well rested and at home, we have an offensive explosion chalked up for the Bulls against this lackluster defense. Lay the points. 

NBA Picks: Detroit vs. Memphis 
Take Detroit Pistons 
1 Unit on Detroit Pistons -5 Detroit is really rocking right now. The Pistons have won 8 of their last 10 games straight up and 6 of their last 7 ATS. Memphis has lost 4 in a row and 3 of 4 ATS. The Pistons have won 15 of the last 20 games in this series and 4 straight over the last 3 seasons. Detroit is 14-4 ATS in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons and Memphis is 3-13 ATS after scoring 80 points or less over the last 3 seasons. We’ll lay the points here. 

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The New Orleans Saints (5-7 SU, 4-8 ATS) still have some NFC wild card hopes, and those hopes may increase after Sunday’s games. But nothing will happen for them unless they take care of business against the Atlanta Falcons (3-9 SU, 6-6 ATS) in the Monday night contest, set for 8:30 PM EST kickoff from the Georgia Dome in Atlanta (artificial turf).

Current Odds: The Saints are listed at -6, with the total posted at 43 points.

Here are some NFL football betting stats and trends relative to this matchup:
* NO has covered just four of its last 15 games
* NO has covered 10 of its last 15 road games
* ATL has won three of its last 15 games SU
* ATL has won and covered two of its last ten home games
* ATL has covered four of its last 15 as a home dog
* NO has covered five of the last seven meetings
* NO has won four of its last 12 trips to Atlanta SU
* Six of the last eight meetings have gone UNDER the total

Chris Redman was selling insurance last year. Now, because of a couple of quarters of football against the St. Louis Rams, he is the Falcons’ starting quarterback. Redman threw for 172 and led two TD drives against St. Louis, so he gets the call from Bobby Petrino, who must be watching the college coaching openings very closely at about this time.

There is no stability here; Joey Harrington has been benched four times. And Redman, who played for Petrino at Louisville, fumbled his chance with Baltimore several years ago. Because the offensive line is broken down – indeed, the Falcons are using their fourth different left tackle – ultimately Redman will be swallowed up by Will Smith and the New Orleans pass rush (Atlanta QB’s have been sacked 39 times). Jerious Norwood (6.4 ypc) should see a bigger role in the offense, says Petrino, although that’s about 12 games too late. For every point Atlanta has scored, it has had to gain 21 yards. That is terrible, especially as it is compared to New Orleans’ figure of 15.5.

Atlanta has allowed 30 ppg in its last three, which may be a bigger concern. They will not get to Drew Brees (sacked just 11 times), who doesn’t get a lot of rushing yards out of Reggie Bush (just 3.7 ypc) but finds him a lot on pass patterns (73 catches).

Michael Vick is scheduled to be sentenced Monday. But having to stick with this Atlanta team through the season may have been a sentence much worse.

You don’t normally like to lay points like this on the road with a team that is under the .500 mark, but Atlanta is so confused and so punchless right now that there is only one way to go. So a small recommendation is in order for the Saints

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A Recap of Week 14 NFL Football including results, scores and odds by Sean Murphy, lead handicapper with The Miller Group of Covers Experts There were blowouts aplenty on Sunday afternoon, with no fewer than nine games decided by at least 14 points. It should come as no surprise that favorites covered at a 10-4 ATS clip, while eight of 14 matchups played over the total.

Panthers at Jaguars (-11, 39)
Final: Jaguars 37, Panthers 6
Did you really think that ‘old man’ Vinny Testaverde would lead the Panthers to back-to-back victories? Carolina was in contention for a brief moment, but the Jags took full control in the second half en route to a comfortable 31-point victory. Fred Taylor carried the bulk of the load, rushing for 132 yards and a touchdown. Even with limited offensive output from the Panthers, this one managed to creep over the posted total.

Cowboys at Lions (+10 ½, 50 ½)
Final: Cowboys 28, Lions 27
We were among those who expected the Lions to roll over and play dead against the Cowboys. Tony Romo orchestrated the game-winning drive, which gave the Cowboys their first and only lead of the game with less than a minute remaining. With the win, Dallas wraps up the NFC East. They’ll return home to face the Eagles next Sunday while the Lions will limp into San Diego.

Dolphins at Bills (-7, 34)
Final: Bills 38, Dolphins 17
Another week, another Dolphins loss. Perhaps they were caught looking ahead to what could possibly be a winnable game against the Ravens next Sunday. Whatever the reason, the Fins just didn’t show up in Buffalo. The Bills improve to 7-6 on the season, and find themselves in the thick of the AFC playoff hunt. They’re 7-2-1 ATS dating back to Week 4.

Giants at Eagles (-3, 42)
Final: Giants 16, Eagles 13
It just seems that the Giants have the Eagles’ number this season. Of course, what team doesn’t? Donovan McNabb looked sharp on the Eagles’ opening drive but struggled the rest of the way in his first game back from injury. Meanwhile, Plaxico Burress turned in his best effort of the season, catching seven passes for 136 yards and a score. This one stayed well below the posted total of 42.

Raiders at Packers (-10 ½, 40 ½)
Final: Packers 38, Raiders 7
The Packers rebounded nicely from last week’s tough loss in Dallas, hammering the Raiders 38-7 at Lambeau Field. Brett Favre threw for 266 yards while Ryan Grant ran for 156 in the victory. The Raiders were foiled in their attempt to post their first three-game winning streak of the season. Oakland heads home to face Indy while Green Bay will travel to St. Louis next week.

Chargers at Titans (+1, 40)
Final: Chargers 23, Titans 17
The Chargers pulled off the comeback performance of the week, rallying from 14 points down late in the fourth quarter and then winning it on an L.T. touchdown run in overtime. The loss strikes a blow to the Titans’ playoff chances in the ultra-competitive AFC. Over backers were left with a disappointing push in a game that featured just 13 points through the first three quarters.

Rams at Bengals (-10, 45)
Final: Bengals 19, Rams 10
Rams backers can thank Fakhir Brown for his pick-6 early in the second half because, in reality, St. Louis had no business covering the number in this one. The Bengals moved the ball at will but could only find the end zone on one occasion. With poor weather conditions and a pair of out-of-rhythm offenses, the final score stayed comfortably under the number. The under is now 9-4 in the Rams’ 13 games this season.

Buccaneers at Texans (+3, 40 ½)
Final: Texans 28, Buccaneers 14
The Bucs had little to play for this week and it showed. Houston looked like the far more desperate team and cruised to a 28-14 home win. Sage Rosenfels was on target all afternoon long and the defense did the rest. Meanwhile, Bucs RB Earnest Graham continues to make his fantasy owners happy. Trust me, I know from experience.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-7, 44 ½)
Final: Seahawks 42, Cardinals 21
We’re willing to say that the Seahawks are playing as well as any team outside of New England right now. They’re a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS over their last five contests and 5-2 ATS at home this season. With the NFC West division wrapped up, now may not be the time to jump on the betting bandwagon however.

Vikings at 49ers (+8, 39)
Final: Vikings 27, 49ers 7
Since losing 34-0 in Green Bay five weeks ago, the Vikings have reeled off four consecutive SU and ATS wins without even having to break a sweat. They continue to climb the NFC ladder, and with games against Chicago, Washington, and Denver remaining their ascension is likely to continue. As for the 49ers, the beat goes on in what has been an absolutely miserable season. They’ve now dropped the cash in seven of their last eight games.

Browns at Jets (+3 ½, 47 ½)
Final: Browns 24, Jets 18
Jamal Lewis sealed the deal with his second touchdown of the game in the final minutes as the Browns won and improved to a staggering 10-3 ATS on the season. Cleveland has yet to drop back-to-back games, either SU or ATS. After recording a 9-0-1 over/under mark over its first 10 games, the club has now played to three consecutive unders.

Chiefs at Broncos (-7, 37 ½)
Final: Broncos 41, Chiefs 7
This just in: the Chiefs are bad. Real bad. After stumbling against Chicago and Oakland over the last two weeks, the Broncos came out sharp on Sunday, scoring all 41 of their points in the first three quarters. Selvin Young returned after missing two games and ran for 156 yards. Denver managed to surpass the posted total all on their own, giving over backers a stress-free payday.

Steelers at Patriots (-10 ½, 49)
Final: Patriots 34, Steelers 13
The Patriots passed one of their few remaining tests, outgunning the Steelers 34-13 on Sunday afternoon. It was a competitive game for a half. Then the Patriots imposed their will and scored 17 unanswered points in the final 30 minutes. Tom Brady came up one yard shy of 400 through the air, further overshadowing the fact that this is a team without any semblance of a ground game.

Colts at Ravens (+9, 41 ½)
Final: Colts 44, Ravens 20
The result was never in doubt as the Colts jumped out to a 23-0 lead in the first quarter and did what the Patriots failed to do, blow out the Ravens in Baltimore. It really shouldn’t come as any surprise given the way the Ravens lost on Monday night. Still, it was an impressive performance by the Colts offense, which got four touchdowns from Peyton Manning. Over backers were able to celebrate a winning ticket after only 24 minutes of action.

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2012 Week 15 NFL Office Pool Picks

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Baltimore Ravens Picks & Odds

The Indianapolis Colts, (10-2 SU, 7-5 ATS, 5-7 O/U), are looking more and more like their old selves after winning their third consecutive game last week by beating the Jacksonville Jaguars 28-25 in a hotly contested matchup.

Not only is Indianapolis an offensive juggernaut with quarterback Peyton Manning at the helm, but the Colts are also ranked second in overall defense, limiting their opponents to just 277.0 yards and 16.4 points per game.

After getting off to a solid 4-2 start this season, the Baltimore Ravens, (4-8 SU, 2-10 ATS, 6-4-2 O/U), have now lost six consecutive games, including last week’s controversial, (robbery?) loss to the New England Patriots, heading into this affair.

While the Ravens are ranked sixth in overall defense, allowing just 294.2 yards per game, Baltimore is giving up a whopping 22.5 points per game, placing them 18th in the league despite their low yardage totals allowed this season.

Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends:
The Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
The Colts are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
The Colts are 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 games in Week 14.

Key Ravens Trends
The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 14.
The Ravens are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in December.
 
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 5-1 in Colts last 6 games in Week 14.
The Over is 4-1 in Colts last 5 games in December.
The Over is 6-0 in Ravens last 6 games as an underdog.
The Under is 5-1 in Ravens last 6 games following a ATS win.

Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
 
Analysis: I told bettors nationwide last week that the Ravens would cover the high spread against the New England Patriots and I say they pull off the trick again this week against the Colts. While their straight up record is as atrocious as the team’s offense, Baltimore’s stout defense should be good enough to keep them in this contest much as it did last week. Take the Ravens to cover the spread in a losing effort.

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Preview Everyone will be glued to the screen to see the one team that actually has a puncher’s chance at knocking out the New England Patriots. The Pats are quickly becoming a team that can’t stop the run, and can’t run the ball. Those are two things that Pittsburgh has always excelled at. The major concern for the Pittsburgh Steelers betting faithful is that their three losses this season have all come on the road. Can Big Ben and the Steel Curtain derail the momentum train of the New England Patriots as it barrels towards destiny?

Pittsburgh Offense vs. New England Defense
Pittsburgh is one of the best rushing teams in the league, notching 138.3 rushing yards per game behind Fast Willie Parker’s fantastic skill set and quick feet. The offensive line for Pittsburgh establishes their territory throughout the game, making life that much easier for Willie. The front-four for New England has always been study, but they are still allowing 92.8 yards per game on the ground. That is simply not good enough for a defense as supposedly feared as this one. Last week they allowed Baltimore, of all times, to bully their way to 166 rushing yards. Expect similar numbers out of Parker.

With Santonio Holmes likely returning to action this weekend, the Pittsburgh offense can also rely on a steady passing game, which has actually taken center stage away from its feared rushing attack. Big Ben, Hines Ward and Holmes have been punishing secondaries lately and the Steelers are averaging 193.7 passing yards per game. New England gives up 196.8 yards through the air on average, and with the defense so focused on containing Willie Parker, Roethlisberger must take advantage of the few chances that the Patriots secondary gives him.

What I like about this offense the most as how they show up for big games. When they needed big divisional wins against the Bengals, Ravens and Browns, the team averaged 31.0 points per game. The problem, as it has been for the Steelers, is revving the engine against on the road.

New England Offense vs. Pittsburgh Defense
The other problem is that New England has averaged 39.1 points per game for the season, making them the most efficient offensive machine in the nation. Tom Brady has come under fire lately from the blitz heavy packages Philadelphia and Baltimore threw at home. If the over-the-hill talent of those two teams could apply pressure on Brady, imagine what Pittsburgh can do. Pittsburgh leads the league in defense silencing opponents to 12.9 points per game.

The Steelers are one of the best blitzing teams in the league, and have the best defense in the league by a fair margin. They suffocate opponents on the field with a stiff rushing defense that only gives up 154.0 passing yards, while stifling opponents to only 76.8 rushing yards per game. The latter will not be a huge concern, because the Patriots have had tremendous trouble rushing the ball lately, but the former is a major concern. Hassling Randy Moss of the line of scrimmage and keeping Troy Polamalu deep enough so that Brady can’t go over the top will be imperative to stopping the Patriots.

Of course the biggest problem for the Steelers will be leaving their corners in isolation against Donte Stallworth and Wes Welker, who have both proven to be impossible to cover in man coverage. The Steelers 3-4 defense will send tons of blitzers, but the depth at receiver for the Patriots has to be giving the Steelers betting backers absolute nightmares.

NFL Betting Trends
-Pittsburgh is 4-8-1 in its last 13 games on the road
-Pittsburgh is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing New England
-New England is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 games
-New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games
-New England is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing Pittsburgh

Final Verdict
As much as I like the way Pittsburgh stacks up in this matchup, there are some scary betting trends leaning the game in New England’s favor. The Patriots have decimated the spread against Pittsburgh in the last 10 games (7-3 ATS against Pittsburgh) and Pittsburgh has only won a single game in their last six matchups.

The pendulum at its highest points to the fact that New England owns Pittsburgh’s number and the Steelers have been atrocious on the road in losing to Arizona, Denver and the Jets. At its lowest the pendulum sits right above the fact that New England only beat Baltimore and Philadelphia by a few points each. Which side of the pendulum do you feel comfortable swinging on?

It’s hard to counter the numbers here, especially with that convincing comeback victory Big Ben threw for against Cleveland. This Pittsburgh offense is well balanced and the defense can swarm Brady to take pressure off of him. As far as the win goes, I’ll give the nod to the chugging destiny train New England is riding. But a two touchdown victory over the Steelers? Don’t bet on it.

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NCAA Basketball Picks: Seton Hall vs. Penn State 
Take Penn State Nittany Lions 
3* on Penn State -1.5 Seton Hall has yet to win a big road game this season. They beat Princeton and then lost at St. Mary’s. They won’t be beating this Big Ten foe on Saturday at Penn State. Seton Hall is 1-8 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive overs over the last 2 seasons. Seton Hall is 6-19 ATS after allowing 75 or more points in 2 straight games. Their poor defensive effort this season will catch up to Seton Hall Saturday. Penn State is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite or pick over the last 3 seasons. Bet Penn State at home. 

NCAA Basketball Picks: Iowa vs. Iowa State 
Take Iowa State Cyclones 
1 Unit on Iowa State pk After an embarrassing loss to in-state rival Drake on the road, we expect the Cyclones to come roaring back at home in their biggest in-state rivalry game. Iowa is in a letdown spot after a big upset over Northern Iowa as a double digit dog. There is no chance that this young, inconsistent team will be able to duplicate that performance in Ames Saturday. Iowa is 12-27 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick since 1997. Iowa State is 16-3 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997. Iowa is also just 9-22 ATS in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons. Iowa State has covered the spread in 4 of its last 6 home games against the Hawks. Let’s take the Cyclones at home in this bounce back spot. 

NCAA Basketball Picks: Butler vs. Wright State 
Take Wright State Raiders 
1 Unit on Wright State +8 Wright State is 13-3 ATS in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons, 8-1 ATS in home games versus good 3 point shooting teams – making >=37% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons, and 12-2 ATS versus slow-down teams averaging 53 or less shots/game over the last 3 seasons. Wright State is also 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games vs. good free throw shooting teams – making >=72% of their attempts over the last 3 seasons and 9-1 ATS in home games versus good teams – outscoring their opponents by 4+ points/game over the last 3 seasons. One more thing, Wright State is 8-0 ATS as a home underdog or pick over the last 3 seasons. In case you wouldn’t have guessed by the above systems, Wright State plays Butler tougher than anyone and is a perfect 3-0 straight up and ATS versus Butler at home over the past 3 seasons. Take the points. 

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NBA Picks: Indiana vs. Orlando 
Take Orlando Magic 
1* on Orlando Magic -7.5 Orlando has been a covering machine this season by getting constantly overlooked by oddsmakers. The Magic are 17-3 ATS on the season, cashing 85% of the time for sports bettors who will back them. This is a reasonably small spread for the Magic at home as we feel they should easily be a double-digit favorite. The Magic return home after 5 straight road games tonight. The home team has won 6 straight games in this series with the Pacers and Orlando. Indiana is 4-15 ATS after a combined score of 215 points or more over the last 3 seasons. Orlando is 7-0 ATS after playing 2 consecutive road games this season. The Pacers are just 6-22 ATS in their last 28 games against Eastern Conference foes. Take Orlando and lay the points. 

NBA Picks: Toronto vs. Boston 
Take Boston Celtics 
1 Unit on Boston Celtics -12 The Boston Celtics will roll right over Toronto tonight without Chris Bosh in the line-up for the Raptors. Bosh is their heart and sole and without him the Raptors simply cannot compete with the talent Boston puts on the floor. The Raptors are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Celtics are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game. The Celtics are scoring over 100 points a game at home and giving up a mere 80 points per contest in Boston. Cash in with Boston as the favorite. 

NBA Picks: Utah vs. San Antonio 
Take San Antonio Spurs 
3* on San Antonio Spurs +1 San Antonio proved they don’t need Tim Duncan in the line-up to still be effective. The Spurs handled the Mavericks at home Wednesday and they won’t have a problem beating the Jazz in San Antonio tonight. The Spurs are a perfect 11-0 on their home floor this season. That trend cannot be overlooked, even with Duncan sitting for this one. The home team is an incredible 9-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between the Jazz and Spurs. Utah is 9-21 ATS in their last 30 road games. The Spurs have one of the deepest benches in the league and we expect them to come through again tonight in Duncan’s absence. Bet San Antonio at home. 

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NFL Carolina vs. Jacksonville 
Take Jacksonville Jaguars 
1* on Jacksonville Jaguars -10.5 Jacksonville will get back to their dominant winning ways this weekend as they take on the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are suffering from QB issues with the loss of Jake Delhomme early this season. Vinny Testaverde can’t muster up enough offense to compete with the Jags on Sunday. The Panthers aren’t running the ball effectively which also hampers their passing game. They have dropped 5 out of their last 6 games overall and are just 1-5 ATS during that span. The Jags are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Jags are scoring over 28 points a game in their last 3 games which will be more than enough to cover this spread against Carolina Sunday. David Garrard is playing great football at QB passing for over 241 yards a game in his last 3 games as the Jags’ starter. Jacksonville’s balance on offense makes them a very formidable opponent to stop. Carolina is 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games played on a grass field. The Jags’ running game is at it’s best on grass fields so look for Jacksonville to run wild on the Panthers’ defense Sunday. Take Jacksonville and lay the points. 

NFL Minnesota vs. San Francisco 
Take Under 
1 Unit on Vikings/49ers UNDER 39 The 49ers are scoring only 10 points a game at home but they are giving up just 18.6 points a game, keeping the opposing offenses in check. Minnesota is scoring just 19 points a game on the road this season and that is even with their 41 point outburst against the Giants a few weeks back. This will be a low scoring affair with two teams who focus on running the ball. Each team has great rush defenses that will contain opposing backs, even Adrian Peterson. Minnesota is 7-0 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more over the last 3 seasons. The UNDER is 5-1 in the 49ers last 6 games as a home underdog. Cash in with the UNDER 39 points. 

NFL Miami vs. Buffalo 
Take Miami Dolphins 
3* on Miami Dolphins +7 This may be the Dolphins’ best shot at ending their dreadful losing streak. Miami won’t cash in their season due to not wanting the embarrassment of being an 0-16 team this year. Buffalo is a very beatable team that the Dolphins had on the ropes earlier this year. They held a 10-2 lead in the 4th quarter only to piss it away late. Miami can beat the Bills and we fully expect them to do so Sunday. The Bills are only scoring 15.3 points a game. Oddsmakers cannot justify this spread with those putrid offensive numbers. This game will be decided by a field goal as it comes down to the wire. The Dolphins are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Dolphins are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Bet Miami on the road. 

NFL Indianapolis vs. Baltimore 
Take Indianapolis Colts 
1 Unit on Indianapolis -9 Baltimore left it all on the field last week against the Patriots and couldn’t quite close the deal. That puts them in a bad letdown spot here and the oddsmakers are all over it by making them big dogs against the Colts. Baltimore has now lost 6 straight and 5 of its last 6 ATS. The Colts are 5-1 on the road this season and we expect them to really punish a defeated Ravens team this week. The key here is that the Colts’ defense on the road has been dominant allowing just 15.7ppg. We don’t expect much offense out of the Blackbirds here. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS against AFC South division opponents over the last 3 seasons, 1-8 ATS against conference opponents this season, and just 2-10 ATS in all games this season. Indy is 18-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons. Lay the points here.

NFL Saint Louis vs. Cincinnati 
Take Cincinnati Bengals 
1 Unit Free Play on Bengals -6.5 Cincy is still a solid home team at 3-3 this season and has shown the ability to score on its opponents at home averaging 25.5ppg. St. Louis’ defense has been terrible on the road, allowing 25.3ppg and its offense has been even worse in comparison scoring just 11.5ppg. This is not going to get the job done against the Bengals as they are going to score the football. The Rams’ defense has particularly struggled against the pass, allowing over 220 yards through the air per game this season. We expect Palmers and his top notch receiving corps to have a big game. Lay the points on the Bengals at home. 

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