Big Brown has a chance to make history this year in this years online betting 2008 Belmont Stakes event. No horse has won the Triple Crown, made up of the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness Stakes, and the Belmont Stakes, since Affirmed in 1979. That means folks betting on horses will have all eyes on Big Brown come June 7th.

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 So will all of the money. That means, of course, that Big Brown will almost undoubtedly go off as one of the shortest priced favorites in the history of the Belmont. Not only that, but for true BetUS online racebook betting fans Big Brown presents a very real problem. How will any real online racebook handicapper make any money on a short-priced favorite like Big Brown?

The answer is in the exotics. Big Brown’s win in the Kentucky Derby, when he went off as the 5 to 2 favorite, yielded a plus $3,000 trifecta. His win in the Preakness, when he went off the 1 to 5 favorite, yielded a trifecta over $300.

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What the above shows is that a very astute online handicapper can make money on a race like the Belmont Stakes even though the horse most likely to win will be going off at less then even money. How does a handicapper do this? And, more importantly, is it possible in this year’s rendition of the Belmont Stakes?

The answer to both questions is yes.

First, online handicappers must realize that placing money on a horse to win, place and/or show when that horse is going off at less then even money is useless. Some might even call it stupid. The idea in betting horses is to get the most out of you what you wager. In other words you are looking for good online betting wagers, not for the winner of the race.

An example would be the win wager on Big Brown to finish first in the Preakness Stakes. His odds were a paltry 1 to 5. Big Brown did win but returned 40 cents profit for every $2 dollars wagered on him. That’s a tremendous underlay in horse racing terms.

However, the exacta of over $36 for a $2 bet to Macho Again, who figured to finish no worse then fourth in the race, was actually very nice. If you had simply keyed Big Brown over four other horses in the Preakness, and Macho Again had been one of them, then you would have made a profit of $28. It would have cost you $8, the pay-out was $36, for a profit of $28. Even if you had gone for the “big money” and keyed those same four horses on top of Big Brown, you still would have yielded a profit of $20.

That’s not bad. The best thing about this year’s Belmont Stakes is that the same logic applies with an added twist.

Because most online racebook handicappers have pegged Casino Drive as the best chance to take down Big Brown, those brave enough to make some hard decisions when figuring out their Belmont Stakes online bets will not doubt put themselves into a position to make an absolute killing on the 2008 Belmont Stakes.

Again, the idea is to look for good wagers, not for the winner. Here’s the thing - - Big Brown is going to go off at 1 to 5. What will Casino Drive go off at? Probably 6 to 5. Because the public will see the Belmont Stakes as a two horse race, almost all of the exacta, trifecta, win and place pools will have both Casino Drive and Big Brown eating up close to 80% of the money.

What then does an astute online racebook handicapper do? He drops one of those horses from his exacta and trifecta wagers.

That’s it. The likeliest outcome, Big Brown winning and Casino Drive finishing second, will also yield the least profits. It will also take a lot of money to even make the bet worthwhile.

Why worry? Take limited funds and drop either Big Brown or Casino Drive from your exacta and trifecta wagers. Sure, both Big Brown and Casino Drive figure to run like awesome machines in the Belmont Stakes, but nobody really knows what will happen once the gates open. War Emblem fell to his knees in the 2002 Belmont. Smarty Jones was caught by Birdstone in the 2004 Belmont. Not even the brilliant Spectacular Bid, who would have crushed Big Brown by about fifteen lengths, could win the Belmont Stakes and sweep the Triple Crown races in 1980.

The best thing to do, the best way to make the most money in this year’s Belmont Stakes, is to take a stand against one of the two favorites - - Big Brown or Casino Drive - - and then take a few bucks and go for a home-run.

It makes a lot more sense then putting $1,000 on Big Brown’s nose and hoping for over two minutes that he can pull something off that no other horse has done in thirty years or putting the win money on Casino Drive and hoping, almost beyond hope, that he could win a 1 ½ mile race in only his third lifetime start.

Sometimes the smartest online wagers are the ones that cost the least.

Article Courtesy of D.S. Williamson, A Professional Horse Handicappers at Betus Online Racebook