The 2008 futures market for NCAAB betting has taken the mighty Big 12 and thrown it into the bargain bin.

What does it take for the best college basketball conference in Division I to get a little respect around here? The Big 12 is priced at +300 to produce this year’s national champions; the ACC leads the way at +200, followed closely by the Pac-10 at +250. This follows the conference RPI rankings to the letter, but RPI doesn’t have the predictive power of the Pomeroy efficiency rankings. They have the Big 12 on top, followed by the Pac-10 and the ACC.

It’s not difficult to see why the ACC is the chalk in this case; the North Carolina Tar Heels (24-2 straight up, 17-6 against the spread) are No. 3 in the college polls, while the Duke Blue Devils (22-2 SU, 13-8-2 ATS) are No. 5. Both are worthy of title consideration. But where’s the depth? The Clemson Tigers (19-7 SU, 14-9 ATS) were the only viable spoilers at press time, sitting at No. 18 on the team efficiency charts.

The Big 12 may look inferior in the eyes of the coaches, who put the Kansas Jayhawks (24-2 SU, 14-10 ATS) at No. 4 in their rankings. But factoring in the margins of victory Kansas has enjoyed this season makes the Jayhawks the nation’s best team from an efficiency standpoint. There’s an even greater divide in opinion when it comes to the Kansas State Wildcats (18-6 SU, 11-7 ATS). The coaches have them at No. 25, RPI is less impressed at No. 30, and Pomeroy checks in at No. 6 with a bullet.

Throw in a pair of sleepers in the Texas Longhorns (No. 14 Pomeroy) and the Texas A&M Aggies (No. 19), and you have yourself a bargain. Of course, this is the future we’re looking at, and anything can happen between now and the end of the Tournament. One of those things: the UCLA Bruins (22-3 SU, 15-7-2 ATS). They are blowing out opponents left, right and center at No. 3 in efficiency, but untimely losses to USC (+12) and Washington (+9) have been enough for the coaches to undervalue them at No. 6 in their poll.

These are the kind of inconsistencies that sometimes pop up on the NCAAB odds list, as they would in any market. This is where even the most casual bettor with an open mind to basic statistical analysis can build a bankroll.

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