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2008 Houston Texans NFL Football Predictions
Overview: Its official: the Texans have arrived!  The league has finally put Houston on the map, giving them a home game for Monday Night Football for the first time in team history.  Houston made huge strides last year under head coach Gary Kubiak’s second season, finishing 8-8, their best record in the six year history of the franchise.  They also enjoyed their first semblance of a home field advantage, finishing 6-2, the first time they’ve had a winning record at home.
 
It’s very hard to move up the pecking order in the AFC South.  The other three teams in this division all won at least ten games and earned a playoff berth last year.  Houston went 1-5 in their division and still finished .500 in ’08, a true testament to the talent that resides in the AFC South.  Even if the Texans stay healthier than they did last year, when they suffered numerous injury problems on both sides of the football, forcing Kubiak to use eleven different starting lineups on offense in 16 games, it’s still hard to project this team as a legitimate playoff contender.
 
Offense: Yards per play is a fairly good statistical measure of an offense’s capability, far better than ‘points scored’.  Last year, the Texans offense ranked fifth in the NFL in this category, behind only the Patriots, Cowboys, Packers and Colts, each of whom won at least twelve games.  Gary Kubiak designs good offenses, plain and simple, with a tremendous track record from his tenure as the offensive coordinator in Denver.  But the Texans -13 turnover margin (largely due to their defense’s inability to create takeaways) must improve for Houston to approach the 12+ win seasons from those other elite level clubs listed above.
 
Matt Schaub signed a fat six year contract to be the Texans starting quarterback prior to last season.  But Schaub couldn’t stay healthy, and backup Sage Rosenfels went 4-1 as a starter when he was injured, playing as well or better than the high priced Schaub.  Schaub comes into 2008 as the starter with a lot to prove.  That being said, between them, Schaub and Rosenfels completed more than 65% of their pass attempts last season, throwing for 3900 yards and 24 touchdowns.
 
The Texans suffered from depth problems at running back last year when Ahman Green couldn’t stay healthy.  This year, Houston brought in another running back with a history of injury problems, Chris Brown from Tennessee.  They drafted the explosive but undersized Steve Slaton out of West Virginia, a back who appears to be a perfect fit for this offense, even if he’s only expected to be a third down, ‘change-of-pace’ back as a rookie.
 
Andre Johnson is a legitimate difference maker for this offense, but he, too, has suffered from injury woes throughout his career.  Houston went 6-3 with Johnson in the lineup last year; just 2-5 without him.  There’s solid depth here.  Jacoby Jones, Kevin Walter and Andre Davis all had breakout seasons in 2007.  Tight ends are crucial in this offense.  Starter Owen Daniels is an emerging talent, catching 63 passes last season.
 
This offensive line has gradually been getting better in recent years.  They allowed an NFL worst 68 sacks in 2005; improved to 43 sacks allowed in 2006 and knocked it all the way down to 22 sacks allowed last year.  However, the running game was subpar in ’07, gaining less than 100 yards per game.
 
This year, the offensive line has three major upgrades from a season ago.  First and foremost, Kubiak hired offensive line guru Alex Gibbs as the ‘assistant head coach.  Gibbs is the zone blocking maestro, who worked with Kubiak in Denver.  Then Houston drafted their left tackle of the future, Duane Brown from Virginia Tech in the first round.  Lastly, they traded for former Broncos center Chris Myers, who started all 16 games in Denver last season.  Former first rounder Eric Winston has started 23 straight games at right tackle, and Chester Pitts has started 96 consecutive games at guard.  We can project that this offensive line will continue to improve.
 
Defense: The Texans were roundly criticized for passing on Reggie Bush with the #1 overall selection in 2005, drafting defensive end Mario Williams instead.  After a rough rookie season, Williams was much better than Bush last year, offering management some redemption.  In fact, over the last seven games of the season, Super Mario was awesome, blowing up the line of scrimmage regularly while notching ten sacks during that span.  Last year’s #1 Amobi Okoye showed signs of his potential and enjoyed a tremendous offseason.  Perhaps he’ll have the same type of breakout season in ’08 as Williams had in ’07.  The remainder of the defensive line has decent depth, but no impact players.
 
Linebacker DeMeco Ryans earned a pro bowl berth last year, the leader of the defense.  In his first two years in the NFL, no player in the league has more tackles than Ryans.  Free agent acquisition Roosevelt Colvin (New England) should help them on passing downs.  Marlon Greenwood has developed into a solid player on the outside.  This is a solid unit.
 
The Texans allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 66% of their passes against them last year.  They intercepted only eleven passes while allowing 25 touchdowns.  Opposing quarterbacks put up a 93.7 QB rating against them, and the unit doesn’t appear to be much better heading into 2008.  Their best cover cornerback, Dunta Robinson is still recovering from a torn ACL.  There is no timetable yet for his return, and he’s expected to start the season on the PUP list.  Free agent acquisition Jacques Reaves started 13 games for the Cowboys last year.  Second year pro Fred Bennett has taken the other starting slot in camp.  Third round draft choice Antwaun Moldin (Eastern Kentucky) is not expected to have a significant impact in his rookie year.  Veterans DeMarcus Faggins, Jamar Fletcher and Dexter Wynn are all fighting for roster spots.
 
Schedule: Houston faced one of the toughest slates in the NFL last year, but their strength of schedule in 2008 is middle of the pack, a real drop-off.  The Texans aren’t likely to start strong, facing three playoff teams from last year (Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Tennessee) on the road in the first four weeks.  After that rough stretch, however, the Texans might offer great value without a single road game in the month of October.  Remember, this team is 10-5 ATS at home in Kubiak’s first two seasons at the helm.