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2008 Indianapolis Colts NFL Football Predictions
Overview: In the salary cap era, the Colts run of regular season success is virtually unprecedented.  Indianapolis has won at least 12 regular season games in each of the last five years.  They’ve made the playoffs six straight times; eight times in the last nine seasons.  While signs point towards this being the final year of Tony Dungy’s tremendous run in Indianapolis, continuity here is virtually assured with assistant head coach Jim Caldwell ready and able to step into Dungy’s shoes when he steps down.
 
The Colts have 20 of 22 starters back from last year’s squad returning, giving them great continuity from last year’s 12 win squad heading into 2008 as the Colts prepare to open their brand new Lucas Oil Stadium.  But Indy is not a deep team by any stretch of the imagination.  This team is in trouble if they suffer injuries at almost any position – quarterback, receiver, offensive line, defensive line, linebackers.  The effect of their top heavy salary cap structure, with the numerous established stars making the lion’s share of the money could come back to haunt them.
 
Offense: Peyton Manning has only known one offense since he arrived in the NFL in 1998.  There’s no other quarterback in the league that has enjoyed the luxury of a decade long run with only one offensive coordinator, the venerable Tom Moore.  Manning has been to eight pro bowls, and enjoyed eight 4000 yard passing seasons.  At 32 years old, only Brett Favre has more starting experience as an NFL starting quarterback than Manning. 
 
But this year, Manning has missed all of training camp while recovering from knee surgery.  Originally, the word out of Indianapolis was that Manning would definitely be ready for the start of the regular season, but rumors began surfacing this past week that Jim Sorgi could be the opening day starter, a big a drop-off as you can find between starter and backup in this league.
 
Running back Joseph Addai has struggled to stay healthy in his first two years in the league, but when he’s been on the field, he’s been dynamite.  Still, Indy was worried enough about his health to re-sign former Colt Dominic Rhodes after he was cut by the Raiders, while drafting former Michigan workhorse Mike Hart this past spring.  Kenton Keith was a solid backup last year as well, giving the Colts better depth at running back than they have at virtually any other position.
 
Hall-of-Fame receiver Marvin Harrison is 37 years old.  He missed eleven games last year, and is no longer the big play threat that he once was.  Reggie Wayne stepped into that big play role in ’07, earning a pro bowl berth, while last year’s #1 draft choice Anthony Gonzalez appears ready to step up his production in ’08. Tight end Dallas Clark is a premier level pass catcher. There is very little quality depth here behind the starters.
 
The Colts offensive line allowed only 23 sacks on 599 pass attempts last year.  Center Jeff Saturday earned a Pro Bowl berth for the third consecutive season.  Young tackle Tony Ugoh stepped right in to a starting role as a rookie and excelled, as did the perennially underrated Ryan Diem on the other side.  2008 second rounder Mike Pollack could earn a starting job at right guard this fall.  Again, there’s virtually no quality depth behind the starters here.
 
Defense: Defensive coordinator Ron Meeks covets speed, not size, for his version of the Tampa-2 defense.  This is not a defense that gives up many big plays, forcing their opponents to dink and dunk their way down the field without making mistakes.  It all starts with the Colts pass rush, as ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have combined for 89 sacks and 47 forced fumbles since 2003.  Freeney has suffered from injury problems, and hasn’t yet stepped foot on a football field this August, still recovering from last year’s season ending foot injury.  The Colts can get pushed around at the line of scrimmage with their undersized tackles.  Guess what?  Depth is a problem here.
 
All three starters are back at linebacker, a unit that has no stars and no depth.  The secondary, however, is truly a tremendous unit when safety Bob Sanders is healthy.  Sanders, however, has missed all of training camp thusfar coming off shoulder surgery.  The Colts have four excellent young cornerbacks, all in their third NFL season or less, led by Kelvin Hayden and Marlin Jackson.  Last year, it was the secondary that was primarily responsible for the Colts registering the NFL’s best scoring defense – well, the secondary AND Peyton Manning rarely putting the defense in bad position due to turnovers.
 
Schedule: I can describe this schedule in one word: Brutal.  The Colts faced a middle-of-the-pack slate last year.  In 2008, it’s a very different story, as the Colts face the second toughest schedule in all of football.  All eight road games come against teams that are expected to be in the playoff chase.  To make matters even worse for a team with depth problems, their bye comes very early, in Week 4, giving Indy a 13 week stretch against top notch opponents without any sort of a break.