2008 NBA Playoffs: Home Cooking - The Great Equalizer
Sports Handicappers Articles April 29th, 2008Article Courtesy of Ben Burns - Click Here to Buy Ben Burns Expert Sports Betting Advice
Some folks looked at the Orlando Magic in Game 3 and thought, “A three point dog? They just whipped Toronto twice!” And the same was true for the Cavaliers/Wizards Game 3. “Cleveland is a 4-point dog? After dismantling the Wizards in Games 1 and 2?” The majority of bettors, however, didn’t take the bait. The money came in on the home teams with the Raptors closing as a 4-point favorite and the Wizards bet up to five and 5½.
Ignoring matchup angles, coaching and emotion for a moment, the difference was simply home court. Cleveland shot 52% in Game 2, winning by 30 points. Their defense was top notch, holding the Wizards to 86 points in each of the first two games. Dominance by the defending Eastern Conference champs! Then in Game 3, they looked like Eastern Conference chumps, losing at Washington 108-72.
The difference? Home court. The Wizards set a league record for largest margin of victory after losing by 30 or more points in the previous game. Go figure. After shooting 37% and 40% in the first two games, Washington shot 52% in Game 3. The first half was when the Cavs’ defense, which led them in the first two games of this series, failed miserably. The Wizards made uncontested jump shots, got free passes to the basket and scored 18 points off Cavs’ turnovers. ‘We feed off our crowd when we’re at home because of the atmosphere and the intensity,’ Daniel Gibson said. ‘They fed off their crowd and did exactly what they needed to do.’
Another factor added to home court to take into account this time of the season is desperation. Teams down 2-0 can’t afford a loss and often (not always!) play with immense intensity. In my pregame analysis of the Game 3 contest I wrote, “Washington is down 0-2, back on their home floor for a must-win game, I expect the Wizards to be at their very best. While LeBron James is obviously the best player on the floor, when playing their game, with a lineup that features Antawn Jamison, Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas, the Wizards have the more complete team. More often that not, they do manage to ‘play their game’ at home, as they’ve won four straight (and eight of 10) games here. Note that each of those four victories came by a minimum of seven points and by average of nearly 13.
“The Wizards are 8-2 ATS when playing with two day’s rest in between games and have shown an ability to bounce back from a big loss, going 12-7 ATS after a double-digit loss this season. Conversely, the Cavs are just 2-8 ATS when coming off a double-digit victory. Note that the Cavs were below .500 on the road and that they finished the season with just three wins their last dozen games away from Cleveland. The Wizards won both meetings here this season, with the wins coming by an average of 10.5 points. Look for them to snap their playoff losing streak against the Cavs, covering the relatively small number along the way.”
While it hasn’t been a particularly strong start to the playoffs (we’ve got a long way to go!) that particular selection, my “Main Event,” resulted in an easy winner, as the Wizards rolled. Remember that the Cavaliers have won only three games on the road since the blockbuster trade in February: against the lowly Charlotte Bobcats, New York Knicks and a controversial win in Philadelphia on April 14. This Cleveland squad is one team at home but often a very different group away. “The Wizards were the aggressors,” Cleveland coach Mike Brown said. “They came out with the right mind-set. They got energized and juiced by the crowd.”
North of the border the Raptors were staring at a 0-2 deficit when Orlando came to town, a team with sizzling 27-14 road record. Didn’t matter, as the Raptors won and covered with ease, 108-94. Toronto has now won eight of its last nine games against the Magic in its building. A re-energized T.J. Ford was brilliant in an 18-point first half, Jose Calderon shredded the Magic for 18 points and 13 rebounds and the Raptors came out swinging and never took a step back.
Home teams went 2-1 SU/ATS again last night, with both Dallas and Philadelphia protecting their homecourts. The Suns, on the other hand, got blown out by the Spurs, falling to 0-3. They are now in serious trouble. I split with my sides (won with Dallas lost with Phoenix) yesterday but unfortunately came up short with my lone total selection, rather than sticking with my original idea of backing all three home teams.
Home teams have now won 18 of the first 23 playoff games. That even includes the Jazz/Rockets series, where the visiting team won the first 3 games. Still, the home team started 16-7 against the spread. Toronto’s Jamario Moon said after the Game 3 win, “I didn’t know this place could get this loud. I could feel the court shaking a little bit.” Toronto coach Sam Mitchell added, “Playing in front of the home fans makes you keep digging a little deeper, no matter how tired you get.”
While visiting teams should eventually start to improve their performance at the betting window, make sure to never underestimate the power of homecourt. Enjoy the games and best of luck with all your wagers this weekend…Ben Burns




