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We cashed a ‘tap-in’ winner Saturday on the Nuggets/LA Lakers game ‘under’ the total of 230, as the Lakers embarrassed the Nuggets in Denver 102-84. That runs our playoff record to 4-2 and a 10-3 run overall including the last week of the NBA regular season. With over 60% success this season in the NBA, we’ll look for more ‘green’ today with some solid playoff situations. And with games 5-6-7 in some remaining series in round 1, we’ll have additional positive profiles that have proven profitable in the NBA playoffs.  Once we get to round 2 in the Western Conference with some of these ‘Class A’ match-ups, we’ll ’shoot’ for even more ‘green’ with our proven profitable playoff plays.

With a 3-0 series lead, the Lakers can sweep Denver out of the playoffs and get the rumblings rolling in Denver for even more coach Karl questioning. Hardly an inspired effort from the Nuggets on their home floor after trailing the series 2-0. And the post-game comments really showed Denver’s frustration. “We quit,” Carmelo Anthony said. “Everybody, from the coaches to the players. And I said it. And I’m not pointing the fingers at anybody because we all sucked. I didn’t play worth a damn tonight.” Anthony continued, “These last three games, we haven’t just been losing, we’ve been getting the (expletive) beat out of us.” Allan Iverson played just one minute in the fourth quarter and was personally insulted and ‘shocked’ at coach Karl’s decision. “I’ve been in a lot of playoff series,” Iverson said, “and I don’t think I’ve ever been this frustrated.”

From a historical perspective, don’t expect Denver to turn it around in an elimination Game 4. NBA playoff teams that lead a series 3-0 are a profitable play in Game 4, getting the money at approx. a 60% clip. Also, these games have gone ‘over’ the total at a profitable rate since 2003 when a team leads a series 3-0. When the team leading the series 3-0 is a home favorite or a road ‘Dog, we have an even stronger situation to support with the road underdog proving to be especially profitable when going for the series sweep. Yes, that situation pops today on the San Antonio Spurs +4 at Phoenix.

Recent 3-0 series situations showed the Detroit Pistons up 3-0 at Orlando in last years opening round, and the Pistons won Game 4 by a 97-93 score but just failed to cover as 4.5 favorites. The next series, Detroit led Chicago 3-0, but were beaten badly in Game 4 at Chicago as a 3-point favorite. Notice the line adjustment in both situations last year with Detroit leading 3-0. The Pistons were a 2.5 favorite in Game 3 at Orlando and won/covered. Then the Pistons were pushed to a 4.5 favorite and won but just failed to cover. In Game 3 at Chicago and leading the series 2-0, Detroit was a 2.5 underdog and won outright, but then became a 3-point favorite and lost big in Game 4, and then lost again as an 8-point home favorite in Game 5. However, remember that Chicago was up 3-0 in their opening series last year against the defending NBA Champs Miami Heat. In Game 4 at Miami, the Bulls eliminated the Heat 92-79 as a 4.5 underdog. The LA Lakers have gone from a 1-point underdog in game 3 to a 4.5 favorite in game 4. I won’t be ‘laying it’ with the Lakers and the line move, but I cannot support the Nuggets who hardly appear ready to rally.

Many people including myself thought the Spurs - Suns series would be one of the best of the first round. Instead, Phoenix is ’soul-searching’ and trying to find an answer for San Antonio’s pick-and-roll set. With Tony Parker piling up a career-high 41 points in game 3 and ‘chippin-in’ 12 assists, it appears the Suns have nobody capable of slowing him down after using Steve Nash, Boris Diaw and Grant Hill on him during game 3. Hill is doubtful for game 4 with abdominal and groin injuries, although he fought through them to play in games 2 and 3.

While I’m not convinced that San Antonio will make it back to the NBA Finals, it’s hard to argue with their performance against Phoenix and the psychological edge they now hold. Phoenix looked so solid in game 1, but couldn’t close the deal before losing in double OT and now must be wondering what it will take to beat the defending champs. San Antonio was an ordinary offensive team this season, and that’s being kind. The Spurs averaged just 95 ppg, no. 28 in the league. Yet San Antonio shot 56% and scored 115 points on the road against a top team in Phoenix with the Suns desperate and seemingly in a spot where their intensity would be the greatest facing a Spurs team that was just 3-11 SU on the road against West playoff teams. Phoenix shot a league-best 50% on their home floor this season, and while they hit 49% in game 3, their defense never showed. Phoenix has allowed the Spurs to score over 100 points and shoot better than 48% in all three contests. With Phoenix unable to deliver or recover during game 3 in desperation mode, it will come as no surprise if the ‘Sun’ doesn’t shine today and the Spurs sweep the series.