2008 NHL Hockey Playoffs Reprt
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
By Guido Carapellucci - Click Here To Buy LT Profits NHL Hockey Playoff Picks

Well, it may have taken two years, but it looks like the NHL has achieved its objective by changing the rules after the players’ strike, as the Stanley Cup Playoffs this season have been the highest scoring in recent memory.

A total of 54 games have been played through the first two rounds, and the Over is 31-23, 57.4 percent to this point with an average combined total score of 5.47 goals per game. This is a far cry from all the clutching and grabbing from recent playoff seasons, when totals set at 4.5 or even 4 were more commonplace.

That is obviously not the case this season, where totals of 5 are being busted left and right, sometimes at nice plus odds. Furthermore, playoff games involving the four teams in the conference finals have averaged a combined 5.64 goals so far, meaning the Overs are even worth a peak at 5.5, especially in the Eastern Conference where the Pittsburgh Penguins are facing the Philadelphia Flyers in an all-Pennsylvania final.

The only defensive-minded club out of the final four is the Dallas Stars, but the fact that they are facing the well-balanced Detroit Red Wings may force Dallas to open up a bit more than they would like, as they cannot count on limiting the Wings to two goals per game like they did to their first two playoff opponents.

So will this abnormally high percentage of Overs continue over the final two rounds? We have every reason to believe they will, based on these matchups.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Philadelphia Flyers: The Flyers have been the most wide-open of the playoff teams, with their games averaging a whopping 6.41 goals in the post-season! Pittsburgh playoff games are averaging 5.33 goals, but keep in mind they played the most defensive-conscious team in the East in the second round in the New York Rangers. Now, the Flyers did win 2-0 the last time these clubs met on April 6, but that contest meant nothing to the Penguins. These teams played six consecutive Overs this season prior to that finale, and five of those six games saw at least seven goals scored. Furthermore, higher scoring games increase the probability of a team winning by more than a goal, and the Penguins are winning by an average of +1.56 goals this post-season. Thus, in addition to the Overs, the Pittsburgh Puck Lines may also be worth a look.

Detroit Red Wings vs. Dallas Stars: Red Wings games are averaging 5.90 goals this post-season, and they are winning their games by a very impressive average margin of +1.70 goals per game. So the question is, will their games be as high scoring vs. a Stars team whose playoff games are averaging just 4.92 goals? That is open for debate, as it was the Under that went 2-1-1 in the four regular season meetings. The lone Over did come the last time the clubs met though, in a 5-3 Detroit victory in March. Also, the Red Wings are just steamrolling their opponents right now, scoring four or more goals in all four games of their sweep of the Avalanche, culminating with an 8-2 wipeout on the road at Colorado in Game 4.

Conclusion: Unlike past playoffs, when we would go nowhere near the Overs, we may have no choice but to recommend them quite often in the coming weeks.