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The enormous list of 2008 Super Bowl props have been popping up all over Las Vegas this week, with virtually every offshore sportsbook joining Vegas by putting out hundreds and hundreds of ‘proposition’ wagers. For the un-initiated, ‘prop’ bets are wagers that the sportsbooks offer on everything except the final score. The final score, of course, is covered by more ‘standard’ wagers on the side (the Patriots are currently 12 point favorites over the Giants) and the total (currently sitting at Over/Under 53.5 points scored by both teams combined). The prop wagers are a good part of what makes Las Vegas such an exciting place to be on Super Bowl Sunday, second only to the venue (Glendale, Arizona) itself.

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Square bettors roll into town and go nuts betting on all of these props. One of the more popular wagers every year is the classic ‘Who will win the coin flip’, with both sides priced at -110. Some shops offer -105 juice on this wager; the Hilton here in Vegas is offering ‘who will receive the opening kickoff’ at -101, a 90% discount off the standard 10% vig for normal games. Even with that 90% discount, betting on the opening coinflip is still a negative expectation wager. Laying -101 on a prop that should be even money (-100) is a bet that will lose money over the long term.

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Sharp bettors look for positive expectation wagers on the enormous prop sheets that the books offer for the Super Bowl, eschewing bets like the ‘coinflip’ example described above. In many instances, that means laying big prices against longshots. For example, betting the ‘No’ on the ‘Will there be overtime’ prop forces bettors to lay more than $10 for every dollar that they want to win. Tourists hate this type of wager, looking for big scores, not big risks.

But if you’ve been betting this prop every year, you’ve cashed 41 consecutive times – the Super Bowl has never gone to overtime. Here are the games that went to overtime in the NFL this year:

Week 1: Washington -3 vs. Miami
Week 2: Detroit -3 vs. Minnesota
Week 2: Denver -9.5 vs. Oakland
Week 8: Denver -3 vs. Green Bay
Week 9: Washington -3 vs. New York Jets
Week 9: Cleveland -1.5 vs. Seattle
Week 11: Cleveland -1.5 vs. Baltimore
Week 11: Pittsburgh -9 vs. New York Jets
Week 12: Arizona -10 vs. San Francisco
Week 12: Chicago -1 vs. Denver
Week 13: San Diego -1 vs. Tennessee
Week 16: Arizona -10 vs. Atlanta
Week 17: New York Jets -4.5 vs. Kansas City
Week 17: Minnesota -2.5 vs. Denver

Conference Championships: Green Bay -7.5 vs. New York Giants

Note the common theme in these 15 games: short pointspreads. Nine of the 15 games featured lines of a field goal or less, expected to be highly competitive contests. Only once did a double digit favorite go into overtime, and frankly, Arizona had little business as a double digit favorite. The Patriots, of course, are 12 point favorites over the G-men as I write this, making this prop a ‘must bet’ once again this year.

For bettors who hesitate to lay more than 10:1 on any proposition, here is an easy way to hedge your bet while giving you a solid chance to cash both wagers. If you bet the ‘No Overtime’ prop, come right back with a bet on the ‘Will the game be decided by exactly three points’ prop, available at +500 or better right now. Most OT games get decided by a field goal, unless you see an interception returned for a touchdown. And with Brady not throwing many picks to begin with and Manning still looking for his first interception of the postseason, an OT pick six is not our biggest concern.

We saw the first meeting between these two teams decided by three points. The Pats also had late season wins against Baltimore and Philadelphia by a field goal. The Giants enjoyed three point wins over Green Bay, Philadelphia and Miami. More games get decided by exactly three points than any other margin of victory. New England has three Super Bowl titles this decade, all won by exactly three points. It’s quite possible to cash both wagers, should either team win by three in regulation, and it’s a solid hedge against your ‘No OT’ bet, helping you recoup some of your losses should that play fail to cash after a stellar 41 year run.

This is just the tip of the iceberg as we start to talk Super Bowl props. Check back over the course of the next week, and I’ll share many of my plays as well as the thought process behind those wagers.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky (Teddy Covers)
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