Article Courtesy of Fairway Jay, A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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Since the 2000 PGA season, the U.S. Open has ranked as the toughest tournament in golf with a scoring average of 74.34. The past three Opens at Oakmont, Winged Foot and Pinehurst were all par 70 courses that had a field scoring average of 74.16 to 75.70. The philosophy of the United States Golf Association (USGA) is to make the U.S. Open the most rigorous, yet fair examination of golf skills while testing all forms of shot-making. So the USGA likes to set up the golf course to not only test the top player’s skill level with difficult course conditions, but also test players’ mental makeup and survival skills. Efficiency, endurance and energy no doubt play a large part in a player’s ability to excel and execute in a pressure-packed environment.

The 108th U.S. Open at Torrey Pines will play to a par of 71 and be set up at 7,643 yards – the longest layout in U.S. Open history by nearly 380 yards. The South Course will be a tremendous challenge, and if the wind picks up off the Pacific Ocean, the short-to-moderate hitters will be at an even greater disadvantage. You must come into the greens high and soft to have a chance to attack the pins; many of which will be tucked on the tiered greens. The ability to hit long, high iron shots will be a big asset. The ‘power’ players should prevail this week.

I’ll be traveling to San Diego to attend the opening round action Thursday at Torrey Pines. With nearly 50,000 fans and media members in attendance, I anticipate only a few good looks at Tiger on the tee and Phil’s famous flop shots, as those two will be paired together alongside Adam Scott for the opening two rounds. Regardless of my experience and close-up look at the PGA players and Torrey Pines, you can bet I’ll be firing for the flag and “green” with more match-up winners. Following last week’s 20* Big Drive winner on Justin Leonard, who won the Stanford St. Jude event outright, Fairway’s Followers (and myself) have now cashed four straight 20* Big Drive winners (4-0) this year while chipping-in more “green” with over +9 units of profit for the season. With another 20* Big Drive likely this week (16-5 on those Big Bombers the last 3+ years), you’d be wise to join Fairway’s Foursome for more winners this week. Be sure to check out my blog at sportsmemo.com for additional U.S. Open coverage.

Fairway’s Favorites

Phil Mickelson – Injured entering last year’s U.S. Open at Oakmont, Mickelson is a definite favorite on his home course at Torrey Pines, where he has had plenty of past success (3 wins) at the Buick Invitational. Despite the redesign by Rees Jones in 2001 that took away some of Phil’s familiarity to the course, the added length for the U.S. Open will only separate Mickelson from most other players while his short game, scrambling and putting, rate among the game’s best. He leads the Tour in scoring average (69.48) and is No. 2 in birdie average and all-around ranking. Mickelson’s driving accuracy is the only potential negative, but he’s top-10 in Greens-in-Regulation (GIR) and his course knowledge and past U.S. Open success and experience (4 runner-up finishes) will have him in contention Sunday with huge crowd support in his favor.

Sergio Garcia – Anyone that saw Sergio shoot his way to victory at the PLAYERS Championship saw an awesome display of tee-to-green play. He led the field in driving accuracy and GIR with exceptional ball striking throughout the week. While his putting is still a bit problematic, his stroke and confidence is improving on the greens. He was solid with the putter last week at the TPC Southwind, while finishing tied for 4th place and just 1-stroke back of the winner Justin Leonard. Sergio struggled mightily at the last two U.S. Opens while missing the cut in each event. However, he finished 3rd in 2005 and 4th in 2002, and the rough will not be as severe, nor will the greens be as fast or as sloped as the past two Open Championships this year. Garcia’s game is on course and his length, ball striking and ability to hit greens (GIR) should serve him well this week.

Stewart Cink – The 2008 season is shaping up to be Cink’s best on Tour. All that is missing is a victory, and he has the game and mental make-up to be a factor come Sunday. Cink has enough length (290+) to allow his solid iron skills to succeed. He’s 4th on Tour in GIR, although if he has a weakness with his iron game it’s from 180+ yards and out. Cink has six top-10s this season, including a T3 at the Masters and played in the final group with Woods at this year’s Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines, finishing 3rd. He’s contended in past U.S. Opens, and could contend for a major breakthrough this week.

Padraig Harrington – The Irishman and British Open Champion has the length, putting and scrambling game to be a factor at Torrey Pines, and like Garcia, will welcome the wind if it begins to blow at higher speeds. He leads the Tour in putts per round and birdie average, and is No. 2 in scoring. His game has been on course this year with four top-5 finishes, including 3rd last week at the TPC Southwind. And while Harrington lacks course experience like the other “Fairway Favorites”, in my mind, Padraig can perform and persevere along the Pacific.

Contenders

Tiger Woods – World’s No. 1 player returns to competition for the first time since his knee surgery in April. Despite six victories on this course at the Buick Invitational and the big betting favorite, I can’t make a solid recommendation for Woods to win this week. Too much to overcome, not just physically as he tries to make the shots and maintain his touch around the greens over four grueling days, but mentally he must hold up in one of the most grueling environments in golf. Tough to fade Woods in any tournament, but even this week will be tough for Tiger.

Others to watch of interest –Vijay Singh, Robert Allenby