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Alabama -2.0
Tuesday January 8th ’08 9:00p
The Florida Gators prepare to go head to head with the Alabama Crimson Tide this evening in a key SEC matchup. The Gators are a very talented team, but with all five starters from last year gone, their experience level is lacking , which is not a good thing when playing on the road in this conference. Look for super star big man Richard Hendrix(19.1 PPG) to be a big catalyst for what I predict will be a home win for the Tide. Final notes & Key Trends: Alabama has won 4 of the L/5 meetings at home in this series. Tide are 14-4 SU L/18 at home. Play on Alabama

Washington Wizards -2.0
Tuesday Jan 8 ’08 7:05p
Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows: The Wizards have that most important element in all sports right now: momentum. When an NBA team gets mo, watch out. The Wizards won their 2 weekend games by 24 and 22 and face what has become a pretty one-dimensional team as the Rockets have been increasingly relying on the Yao-man with McGrady still sidelined with a bum knee. More often than not, when a rookie like Aaron Brooks has a career-game shooting 8 for 10 from the field, those kinds of efforts are followed up by at best mediocre-ones, probably because they feel self-imposed pressure to replicate non-replicable performances – so they have unexpectedly poor shooting games. Yao is not a gazelle on the court and just underperforms when double-teamed. There’s also the revenge-factor: the Rockets have beaten the Wizards 4 straight and now Houston is on the road both without a 23-point scorer – and facing “big mo.”

Seton Hall @ Marquette u163.0 (-110)
Tuesday Jan 8 ’08 9:00p
Seton Hall is a combined 3-2 SU on the road/neutral site this season, and they’ve gone 2-2-1 ATS. This fast paced club has averaged 85 PPG this season, but that numbers dips down to 74 PPG on the road. However, their defense improves when installed in the role of visitor allowing 76 PPG opposed to the 81 PPG allowed overall.

Marquette is an unblemished 8-0 at home this year, but only 2-1 ATS. The competition scheduled early on hasn’t been the greatest (Savannah State, Coppin State, IUPU – Ft. Wayne), but Head Coach Tom Crean certainly scheduled those teams looking for his players to gain confidence for their rugged Big East schedule.

Marquette opened up as 17-point favorites with the ‘Total’ set at 163 for this contest. It’s certainly a ton of points to have to cover in a spot like this, but Seton Hall will be without one of its better guards for this contest, Paul Gause, and his absence has been taken into account within this number. The trends just don’t add up for a play on Seton Hall ATS this evening considering they’re a poor 4-9-2 ATS their L/15 road games and 3-8-1 ATS their L/12 vs. the Big East. As for Marquette, they’re a solid 6-2 ATS their L/8 at home, and have bounced back nicely off a SU loss going 11-5 ATS their L/16. Many will also look to play the ‘Over’ in this spot considering it’s a combined 11-2 ATS when both of these teams squared off against Big East opposition. However, the ‘Under’ has cashed in 4 of Seton Hall’s 5 road games this season due to the fact that they’ve played better “D” away from their home arena. Marquette’s played stifling “D” at home this season only allowing opponents 55 PPG, and that spells trouble for a Pirates club that sees its PPG average drop considerably (85-74 PPG) on the road.

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CLICK HERE FOR 2008 NFL PLAYOFFS OPENING ODDS AND LINES

When it comes to this weekend’s divisional playoff round, bookmakers aren’t screwing around with the favorites. They’re moving them up fast, sometimes skipping numbers.

The oddsmakers at Las Vegas Sports Consultants, for instance, sent-out an opening number on Seattle-Green Bay of Packers -7. The number immediately shot up to -9 at some books.

“They’re (bookmakers) going from seven right to the next key number of nine,” said Mike Seba, a senior linesmakers for LVSC. “They’re skipping 7 ½, eight and 8 ½. “It’s a strategy they’re using.

“They’re taking a stand with favorites. It’s so tough for teams that won this past weekend to go on the road and win against a rested team.”

It’s clear the house wants to be on the side of the favorites this week. New England, Indianapolis and Dallas all have been adjusted higher, too.

Seba said he though LVSC was shading the favorite when it sent out New England -11 ½ versus Jacksonville. The line, though, was up to a solid 13 Monday afternoon.

“We were thinking that a handicapping number was 9 ½ or 10,” Seba said. “So we thought we were inflating it. We want to be on the high side of these favorites.

“But as it turns out we didn’t inflate it enough. It has to be less than 14. So 13 could be the right number. If it got to 14, it would quickly come down because you can’t lay 14 to Jacksonville.

“Jacksonville has been playing so well. The Jaguars are one of the few teams that could give the Patriots trouble.”

Bettors hoping to lay seven with Indianapolis against San Diego are disappointed. LVSC’s recommendation was Colts – 7 ½. Sportsbooks were at 8 ½ or 9 Monday morning on the Colts.

The Chargers have won and covered in their past seven games. But San Diego may be without Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates, who suffered a toe injury Sunday against Tennessee and is ‘questionable.’

“It’s tough to make the line higher than 7 ½ considering how well the Chargers are playing,” Seba said. “If he (Gates) were healthy, the line would be 7 ½.”

Those betting the Colts also may be factoring in the team’s first meeting during Week 10 in San Diego. The Chargers picked off Peyton Manning six times and returned a kickoff and punt for a touchdown. The Colts came into that matchup extremely banged-up and had to play in the rain.

Still, the Chargers only won by two points when Adam Vinatieri missed two field goals, including a 29-yarder with 1:31 left that may have given the Colts the victory.

“You might be able to draw conclusions from that game, but a lot has changed since then,” Seba said. “The Chargers know they can play with Indianapolis. They beat them at Indianapolis two years ago (26-17). The value definitely might be with the ‘dog.”

The Giants-Cowboys line was the toughest one to make, Seba said. LVSC ended up sending out Cowboys -8 ½. Some places opened it shorter at -7. The line settled in at -7 ½ Monday afternoon.

The Cowboys are 2-0 against the Giants this season, defeating them 45-35 at home and 31-20 on the road. Dallas, however, has failed to cover its past four games. The Cowboys are averaging just 10.6 points during their last three contests.

The Giants played one of their finest games of the season during Week 17 in losing 38-35 to New England. The Giants followed that up by upsetting Tampa Bay as a three-point playoff road underdog, 24-14.

“I think 7 ½ is a good number,” Seba said. “The Giants are coming in on a roll and Dallas isn’t playing well. But the injuries the Giants have suffered eventually have to catch up to them. The Giants will run out of gas. It may happen here.”

Seba said LVSC’s opening line recommendation was factoring in Terrell Owens. Oddsmakers are anticipating he’s going to play. Owens had suffered a high ankle sprain on Dec. 22 in a victory against Carolina. By Stephen Nover, A Professional Handicapper at Covers Experts.

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Tulsa +2.5
Mon Jan 7 ’08 9:00p
Colorado is going through a rebuilding process under new head coach Jeff Bzdelik, who comes over Air Force. He is slowly retooling a team that in the future will be a hard to contend with, but for now, until he gets the players he needs to run his system, the Buffaloes will be taking some lumps. Tulsa their C-USA opponents are a team on the rise, and off a 20 win season last year and considered by a coaches poll to be among the top 4 teams in their conference. With four returning starters in the lineup , their experience and determination will give them an edge over a program whos best days are still ahead of them. Final notes & Key Trends: Colorado has failed to cover 13 of their L/18 home games. Play on Tulsa

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Loyola Chicago +11.5 (-110)
Mon Jan 7 ’08 8:00p
The Butler Bulldogs are currently the 16th ranked team in the nation and they are clearly the class of the Horizon League, but that does not mean they will roll through the conference when they are double-digit road favorites. That is exactly the case tonight when they visit the Loyola-Chicago Ramblers.

Now granted the Bulldogs are 13-1 overall including 5-1 on the road, but keep in mind that the loss did come inside the conference when they were road favorites at Wright State. Butler is a team that relies on its three-point shooting, and they have been outstanding in that regard, hitting on 40.4 percent of their shots beyond the arc.

However, should one of their Big Two of Mike Green and A.J. Graves have an off night, they could be in trouble as they are not a good rebounding team averaging just 25.2 boards per game, ranking them 322nd out of 341 Division IA schools. This weakness has been a moot point so far with the team draining threes, but it could come up and bite them at any time. Keep in mind also that the Bulldogs’ average winning margin on the road has been +8.2 points, which is about three points shy of this lofty number.

Now, the Ramblers have struggled to a 5-9 record, and they have lost four of their last five games. However, all four of those losses came on the road, and Loyola is a much more respectable 4-3 at home this season, although they have been outscored by their Division IA home opponents by an average of -3.2 points per game. That margin is still good enough to cover this number however.

Also, the Ramblers figure to improve as they work Mississippi transfer Justin Cerasoli more into the offense. Cerasoli became eligible to join the team five games ago, and he has scored double-digits in four of his five appearances while averaging 12.2 points per game.

Finally, do not forget that Loyola-Chicago went into Butler last season and upset the Bulldogs 75-71 as 10-point underdogs. Butler did get even by beating the Ramblers in the Horizon Tournament, which takes revenge out of the equation here.

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San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors o204.0 (-110)
Mon Jan 7 ’08 10:35p
The Warriors opened up as 2-point favorites in this contest with the ‘Total’ set at 204. The line has since moved to (-3) and the ‘Total’ shot up as well to its current position of 205. Spread bettors take note: the Spurs are a poor 2-5 ATS (29%) their L/7 as an underdog, and an even worse 1-6 ATS (14%) playing on 0 days rest. They managed a win in the Staples Center last night against the Clippers, but failed to cover the spread once again. That now makes them 1-4 ATS their L/5 and 3-7 ATS their L/10. As for the Warriors, they’re 9-2 ATS their L/11 tussles with the Southwest division, but they’re currently in a cover funk at home going 0-4 ATS. The ‘Over’ was a perfect 5-0 ATS before their first meeting this year, and its cashed in 9 of their L/11 meetings in Golden State.

The Warriors were last in action on the 4th when they got blasted at home by the New Orleans Hornets to lose their second game in a row. On two days rest this season, the Warriors are 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS. All of their impact players come into this game fully healthy, but the same can now be said of the Spurs for the first time in a couple weeks. Manu Ginobili logged some heavy minutes last night in his first action since he injured his finger against the Clippers back on December 22nd. With the big three now fully intact, the Spurs will look to get back to its winning ways after struggling to get “W’s” the last couple weeks. However, the Warriors won’t just roll over and die in this spot. Especially after getting buried at home their last time out.

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Wisc.Milwaukee +3.5
Mon Jan 7 ’08 5:30p
This is what I wrote about Wisconsin-Milwaukee less than two weeks ago : To say that Wisconsin-Milwaukee is a mess is something of an understatement. A few years back, this team made a run to the Sweet 16, getting Bruce Pearl his gig at Tennessee. Last year, they won nine games. This year, they might not even reach that total. Oklahoma transfer and senior leader Torre Johnson, the team’s leading scorer and rebounder, was kicked off the team last week following an arrest. Sophomore guard Roman Gentry quit the team as well, leaving them perilously short on both talent and depth. Remember, this comes in the aftermath of Avery Smith’s dismissal from the team just prior to the season, another senior leader and the team’s leading returning scorer. The Panthers weren’t a good team even with a complete roster. They were blown off the court in recent road games at Marquette (losing by 35) and at Illinois-Chicago (losing by 18).

Well, the Panthers have gotten better since all the suspensions and dismissals – much better. Wisconsin-Milwaukee has reeled off four consecutive victories, including a road win at Wyoming as 12 point underdogs and a pair of straight up wins as home underdogs against quality foes Wright St and Central Michigan. They beat Detroit on Saturday despite shooting less than 33% from the field. All of a sudden, this is a scrappy, feisty underdog capable of making some noise against weaker foes in Horizon League play. While Youngstown State has started off their conference campaign well, with wins and covers at home against Loyola-Chicago and Illinois-Chicago, tonight’s step up in class makes them an unworthy favorite. (#505) Take Wisconsin-Milwaukee +3.5

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The last time Ohio State was in the BCS National Title game, they were drubbed by the Florida Gators. The last time that LSU played in the Superdome, they destroyed Notre Dame in the 2007 Sugar Bowl. Can the Buckeyes overcome last year’s loss and go the distance this year, or will the Tigers make them back-to-back losers?

Perhaps the most intriguing element of the Buckeyes preparations is how they cope with a 51-day layoff between their last game and the BCS National Title tilt. It was obvious in their 41-14 loss to Florida last season that they were complacent and apathetic heading in to the matchup. Back then, they were invincible and an obvious top-seed in the nation. This year, they are anything but invincible despite the attaining the top-seed again.

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LSU Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Whether it’s Matt Flynn or Ryan Perrilloux at the helm, the LSU offense has been nothing short of prolific for the entire season. They rank ninth in scoring with 40.2 points per game and hurl the ball for a solid 227.3 pass yards per game. Flynn will get the start as his shoulder looks to be healed, but the two-quarterback system of LSU will keep Ohio guessing at every turn. 

Mobile quarterbacks have given this stout defense fits for the majority of the year. However, this unit proved it was the best in the nation by silencing opponents to an astounding 10.7 points per game against, while containing offenses to only 148.2 pass yards and 80.5 rushing yards per game. John Laurinaitis, the line-backing leader of this incredible unit, still has the bitter taste of defeat in his mouth and will rally this defense to throw everything it has at this LSU offense.

The top priority will be stopping running-back Jacob Hester, who averages 5.0 yards per carry and is responsible for moving the chains between the twenties for the Tigers. Ohio State will have trouble containing Hester on the edges because the line-backing corps, while strong, lacks speed and will lose a step as they are forced to spy on Flynn who can demoralize the Buckeyes with a play-action pass.

Ohio State Offense vs. LSU Defense
Ohio State’s offense is efficient, well-balanced and focused on pounding the rock. Starting tailback Chris Wills averages 5.8 yards per carry and has amassed 14 touchdowns. He is spelled by Maurice Wells, who gains 3.3 yards per carry and has the kind of breakaway speed that can ruin a defensive coordinator’s day. Both will be challenging a fierce front-seven led by defensive-tackle Glenn Dorsey. The Tigers only give up 106.1 yards on the ground.
 
Todd Boeckman is nowhere close to the threat that Troy Smith was in college, but he is an efficient passer who completed 64.5 percent of his passes while gaining 2,171 yards, 23 scores and 12 picks through the air. LSU is fast, agile and aggressive in the secondary and allows only 175.1 passing yards per game.

The LSU defense is slightly more vulnerable on the scoreboard, as is proven by their 20.1 points allowed per game. While Ohio State only puts up 32.0 points on average, it is important to note that they usually go in to squat mode after gaining a decisive lead and pull the reigns off their offensive assault when they gain a lead.

The Tigers defense has only been ripped by two players this season – Andrew Woodson of Kentucky and Darren McFadden of Arkansas. Ohio State lacks that kind of game-breaking superstar, but that will lend itself to their advantage as LSU will have trouble keying off any single player on the Buckeyes. Expect Jim Tressel to deploy Wells early and often to open up passing lanes for Boeckman as he targets Brian Robiskie as much as possible. Robiskie holds a strong physical advantage over anyone on the LSU secondary and will be the Buckeyes main scoring threat.

NCAA Football Betting Trends
-Ohio State is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
-Total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State’s last 6 games
-LSU is 1-7-2 ATS in its last 10 games
-Total has gone OVER in 7 of LSU’s last 8 games

Final Verdict
The bandwagon is pulling hard for LSU and for good reason. They are essentially playing at home, in a bowl that they’ve enjoyed a truckload of success with a team that has only been beaten when two teams threw the kitchen sink at them. So why bet against them?

Because Ohio State has been here before, and the team leader’s will refuse to be complacent about letting another national title slip them by. The well-balanced attack of Ohio State will help move the chains against an LSU defense that has appeared vulnerable at time.

Ohio State will win this game as their defense grounds Hester and forces Flynn to throw against a secondary that is underrated in their ability to cause turnovers and generate coverage sacks. Vindication is a powerful motivator, and it will turn the tides against LSU as Ohio State goes on to win the BCS Championship.

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Don’t be surprised if a boxing match breaks out between the Tennessee Titans, (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS, 5-10 O/U) and San Diego Chargers, (11-5 SU, 11-5 ATS, 8-6 O/U) this weekend, considering the teams’ recent history.

When the teams met on Dec. 9 in a contest the Chargers won 23-17 in overtime, there were four players who were fined a combined total of $32,500 by the NFL for various infractions and several more players who were lucky to escape some sort of punishment or fine.

After handing the Titans their only loss in their last five games, Chargers all-pro linebacker Shawne Merriman accused several Titans players, most notably, former all-pro center Kevin Mawae, of taking some cheap shots during the course of the game, one of which Merriman claims left him with an injured knee.

Bad blood aside, San Diego has been on something of a roll, winning their final six regular season games and 10 of their last 12 contests to storm into the postseason.

However, the Chargers won 10 straight games going into last season’s playoffs before getting unceremoniously bounced out of the postseason by the New England Patriots in their first game.

The Titans enter this game after fighting for their playoff lives in their regular season finale last week, beating the Indianapolis Colts 16-10 to sneak in the back door after a miserable stretch of football in the middle of the regular season.

Starting quarterback Vince Young was injured against the Colts, but will undoubtedly play in this contest if he can breathe.

The Chargers led the NFL with 30 interceptions this season and finished fifth in scoring defense, allowing a miniscule 17.8 points per game but were ranked just 20th in offense, averaging 315.2 yards and 25.8 points per game despite having one of the best offensive minds in the game in head coach Norv Turner.

The Titans fielded the league’s 21st-ranked offense, averaging 311.7 yards and just 18.8 points per game. Tennessee also posted the fifth-best overall defense in the league, allowing just 291.6 yards and 18.6 points per game.

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Key Titans Trends
The Titans are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff road games.
The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

Key Chargers Trends
The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a S.U. win.
The Chargers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.
The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Key Totals Trends
The Under is 8-1-1 in Titans last ten games following a S.U. win.
The Under is 6-1-1 in Titans last eight games following a ATS win.
The Under is 4-0 in Chargers last four games in January.
The Under is 6-2 in Chargers last eight home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings.

Analysis: This pick is an absolute ‘no-brainer’. Despite the fact that they are playing at home – and learned a valuable lesson during last season’s playoff loss to the Patriots, I like the Tennessee Titans to cover the spread in this matchup while falling to the Chargers. Both teams feature excellent defenses that should keep this game close until the very end.

NFL Free Pick: Chargers 21 Titans 17

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The Chargers survived a early season scare when they looked like they could not win their way out of a paper bag and new head coach Norv Turner looked like he was going to be fired even before the end of the season. Even before Tennessee, who they play in their first playoff game of this season, came down with a bunch of serious injuries, the NFL betting lines would have favored the Chargers quite heavily against a Titans team that really has very little identity and whose quarterback has throw just nine touchdowns all year, but almost twice as many interceptions.

Tennessee Titans +9.5 at San Diego Chargers –9.5 Wild Card Game Odds

The Chargers will rely on LaDainian Tomlinson to take them into the next round of the playoffs. LT won the rushing title for the second straight season in 2007, becoming just the eleventh back in NFL wagering history to do so and silencing many who questioned him after a slow start. LT and the offensive line have both improved their play as the season has progressed and they must keep it up in the playoffs it they are going to give struggling quarterback Philip Rivers a chance to help the team succeed. Even if the Titans are able to slow Tomlinson and the running game down at the start of the game, coach Turner will have to not screw up by abandoning it, as it will eventually wear down the Tennessee defenders.

NFL Wild Card Playoff: Sunday, January 6, 2008 at 4:30 p.m. EST

Rivers, for his part, has not made many new fans this year as he has struggled through much of the season with poor throws and even worse decision-making. Of course, many will blame this one the coaching changes effected after last season by the Chargers organization. This may be a very valid excuse, as Rivers’ play has gotten better late in the year. He has a rating of over 100 in each of his last three starts. With Titans safety Chris Hope out with an injury, it should make things easier for Rivers to find tight end Antonio Gates and open things up for wide receiver Chris Chambers as well. Anyone who bets on NFL football should make a play on San Diego to cover in this game.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3.0 (105)
Sunday January 6 ’08 1:00p
This Wild Card Playoff matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New York Giants looks fairly even statistically, but the Buccaneers appear to have the edge in some key areas.

From an emotional standpoint, we question the wisdom of the Giants’ decision to play their regulars and go all-out for the entire game in an attempt to end New England’s perfect season last week. That tough loss may actually work against them here, and the Giants probably would have been better served by resting their regulars, which is essentially what the Buccaneers have done the last two weeks.

From a physical standpoint, because of the differing approaches these teams took down the stretch, Tampa Bay is the fresher and healthier team entering this game. Granted, Jeremy Shockey was lost for the season a few weeks ago, but most of the other players on this week’s lengthy injury report would not be as nicked up if they had been held out last week.

Perhaps most importantly, in a game that is statistically close like this, the final outcome should be determined by who makes the fewer mistakes. Well, Eli Manning looked great against the Patriots, but he has always had a problem piecing together back-to-back good efforts, and the turnover-prone quarterback should face a ton of pressure here from a Tampa Bay defense that is allowing just 13.5 points and 165.0 passing yards per game at home.

Conversely, few quarterbacks manage a game as well as Jeff Garcia, who threw just four interceptions while tossing 13 touchdown passes this year. We look for Garcia to be the better quarterback today, and that should result in a Bucs victory.

NFL Free Pick: Buccaneers -3 (+105)

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Seattle Seahawks -3.5
Sat January 5 ’08 4:30p
The Redskins are a nice story, a team that has rallied around a backup quarterback following the death of one of their most talented and popular players, reeling off four straight wins and covers to earn a wild card berth. But legitimate questions persist about the Redskins ability to carry that momentum forward into the postseason. In fact, Washington faces extremely difficult matchups on both sides of the football as they travel to face the Seahawks on Saturday.Make no mistake about it – Seattle’s home field is one of the strongest in the NFL. The Seahawks went 7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS at home this year, the lone loss coming back in early October thanks to a handful of special teams breakdowns. And the crowd noise here is second to none, creating all kinds of problems for opposing offenses. An offense like the Redskins, with a backup QB behind center and a handful of key line injuries is a bad matchup against a Seahawks defense that sacked opposing quarterbacks 45 times this season, 4th in the NFL. We can expect pass rushing force Patrick Kerney (14 sacks this year) and blitzing machine Julian Peterson (10 sacks) to have success pressuring Todd Collins into mistakes.

On the other side of the football, the Seahawks match up very well with Washington. The Redskins lost pro bowl safety Sean Taylor last month, and former #1 pick Carlos Rogers won’t be playing in the secondary either. Mike Holmgren has been perfectly comfortable with the ‘pass first’ offense of Seattle, eschewing the running game repeatedly over the second half of the season. Matt Hasselbeck guided this team to the Super Bowl only two years ago, and his receiving corps is as healthy as they’ve been all season, with Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson and Deion Branch all at 100%. Look for the Redskins secondary to struggle against this elite level passing game, as Seattle cruises to victory. Take the Seahawks.

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