Columbia -8.0
Fri February 29 ’08 7:00p
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 152 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978. The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows –
HARVARD bums you out and does NOT cover when they’re [all figures are ATS (against-the-spread)]:
A road dog of +6.5-9 points this year: 1-5 ATS last 6 games
Any kind of a road dog: 1-6 ATS last 7 games
Trying to get revenge for a home loss to the team they’re playing: 3-6 ATS last 9 games
Playing a team with any sort of winning record: 6-12 ATS last 18 games

COLUMBIA, on the other hand, makes you money and COVERS when they’re:
Playing anybody this year: 10-3 ATS last 13 games
Playing another Ivy team: 7-3 ATS last 10 games
Playing in the cold month of February: 6-2 ATS last 8 games
Playing a lousy team like Harvard with its 8-18 SU record (actually any team with a losing record): 5-1 ATS last 7 games
GO WITH COLUMBIA -8 IN THIS 700PM EST MATCHUP

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Houston Rockets -12.5
Fri February 29 ’08 8:35p
Since dumping Pau Gasol for pennies on the dollar, the Memphis Grizzlies have declined from ‘bad’ to ‘truly dismal’, the single worst team in the entire league. The Grizzlies woes have been on full display against quality teams in hostile environments. Since beating Indiana in Indianapolis on January 2nd, the Grizz have lost eleven consecutive road games. They’ve consistently lost by double digit margins against mediocre foes like Washington, Charlotte, Philadelphia and the LA Clippers. And when Memphis tries to step up in class against strong playoff caliber squads, their results have been even worse. New Orleans, Dallas, San Antonio, Golden State and Detroit have beaten the Grizzlies by an average of nearly 20 points per game.

Friday’s opponent, the Houston Rockets, have manhandled the Grizzlies with ease in both previous meetings this year, winning by 13 at home and 20 on the road. Houston is the hottest team in the NBA, winners of twelve straight, going 10-2 ATS in the process. The Rockets have enjoyed this tremendous run of success by pounding one weak foe after the next, beating Minnesota, Milwaukee, Indiana, Sacramento Atlanta, and Miami, covering big pointspreads repeatedly in the process. Yao’s season ending injury made headlines in Houston all week, but the reality is that their overall level of improved play has come due to the success of their role players –point guard Rafer Alston, Shane Battier, Luis Scola, Carl Landry, Luther Head and the recently acquired Bobby Jackson. Facing a demoralized foe with both limited talent and depth, we can expect the Rockets role players to have their way throughout as they cruise to victory. Take the Rockets.

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New Orleans Hornets -4.0 (-110)
Fri February 29 ’08 8:05p
Another crucial Western Conference clash takes place this evening when the (37-21) Utah Jazz invades the “Crescent City” to take on the (38-18) New Orleans Hornets. I always find it funny when these two clubs square off because its New Orleans that should be considered the Jazz and Utah’s state animal is the honeybee. Anyway, the Jazz come into tonight’s game sitting 2.5 games in front of the Denver Nuggets for the top spot in the Northwest Division, while the Hornets find themselves 1-game in back of the San Antonio Spurs for the lead in the rugged Southwest. Utah has been a poor road team this year evidenced by their 12-18 SU mark, and they’ve also been a solid proposition to bet against considering their ATS mark as a visitor is the same as their overall road mark. New Orleans has won 19 of their 29 overall games at home this year, and they’re starting to get bigger crowds as the season’s progressed. However, they’re ATS mark at home is mediocre at 16-13, but that won’t stop me from laying the points in this crucial revenge match-up. Utah steamrolls just about everyone in the comfy confines of their own arena, but they transform into something awful when on the road.

The home team is 5-1-1 ATS the L/7 meetings and New Orleans is 5-1 ATS their L/6 vs. the Northwest Division. Utah is also a pathetic 5-13 ATS on the road vs. a team with a winning home mark. Lay the points with confidence as CP3 and West let the Jazz know what it’s like to be on the other end of a woodshed beating!!!!

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Washington Wizards +5.0 (-110)
Fri February 29 ’08 8:05p
The Washington Wizards have continued to play hard and be competitive despite being without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler, while the Bulls have struggled at home this season.

Granted, the Wizards laid an egg at Houston vs. the Yao-less Rockets on Tuesday, but that came the night after they upset the red-hot New Orleans Hornets on the road, so we will grant Washington a Mulligan there. The Wizards are still 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games overall, and they are now an excellent 17-12, 58.6 percent ATS on the road for the season.

Now the Chicago Bulls were playing better soon after their coaching change, but they are now just 4-6 straight up in their last 10 games, and they are returning from a 1-2 road trip where their only win was at Indiana, which was the easiest on the three opponents. Chicago is still a very disappointing 12-14 SU at home this year, and they are a money-burning 10-16 ATS in those games.

Finally, this is a revenge spot for the Wizards, who lost outright at home to the Bulls as six-point favorites back in December.

NBA Free Pick: Wizards +5

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Free NHL Picks: Buffalo Sabres vs. Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens -122.0
Fri February 29 ’08 7:35p
The Montreal Canadiens enter into this tilt against the Buffalo Sabres , having lost 3 straight meetings in this series ,out scoring them during that span by a lopsided 11-3 count. I know the Habs have revenge on board , and are in good form, as is evident by winning 4 of their L6 , but the Sabres are no push overs at home, and will be ready to continue their domination of the eastern conference foes. Final notes & Trends: Buffalo goalie Ryan Miller, 10-3-2 with a 2.29 goals-against average in 15 career starts against the Canadiens. Montreal has also lost 21 of their 29 games in upstate NY. Home team s 7-1 L8 meetings in this series. Play on the Sabres

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Jacksonville State +4.0 (-110)
Thu February 28 ’08 8:15p
This game between the Jacksonville State Gamecocks and the Eastern Illinois Panthers may feature the two worst teams in Division IA, but that does not mean we cannot profit from this stinker of a contest.

First of all, the 5-22 Panthers are getting outscored by an average of -6.8 points per game overall, which is actually worse than the 6-21 Gamecocks’ average of -5.2 points. That fact alone means that Eastern Illinois is a terrible favorite vs. any opponent, and furthermore, they are just 3-8 straight up and a dismal 2-7-1 against the spread at home. This is the first time that the Panthers have been favored all season, but they have been in three Pick’em games and they lost all three times vs. Rice, Tennessee-Martin and Eastern Kentucky, with the smallest losing margin in those games being six points.

Now, Jacksonville State is 0-11 SU on the road, but they have managed to go 4-4 ATS in their lined road contests. In fact, they are 3-1 ATS in their last four games overall, and their last road contest was their best of the season, as they lost just 87-85 in overtime at Tennessee Tech as 13-point underdogs.

We feel that the Gamecocks get over the road hump tonight with the outright upset.

CBB Free Pick: Jacksonville State +4

USC +5.0 (-110)
Thu February 28 ’08 9:00p
Road teams have fared well in the Pac 10 this season and the USC Trojans fit nicely into that profile tonight at Arizona. The Trojans, who have covered eight of their past 11 games, are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games as an underdog. Meanwhile, Arizona has only brought home the money once in its past six games against a team with a winning record. On the injury front, USC guard Daniel Hackett (back) practiced Wednesday and could see action against the Wildcats. Arizona will continue to be without the services of guard Nic Wise who is out due to injury. The underdog has covered the past five games in this series and I look for the Trojans to make it an even half-dozen tonight.

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Pittsburgh Penguins @ Boston Bruins u5.5 (-115)
Thu Feb 28 ’08 7:05p
The Pittsburgh Penguins may have trouble getting some offensive continuity the next few games considering all the new players they traded for at the deadline, and the Boston Bruins would be tough to score on in Beantown in any event.

Boston is allowing just 2.20 goals per game at home for the season, with the Under going a lucrative 19-10 in this rink. It helps to have an All-Star goaltender like Tim Thomas in net, as he has a good 2.41 GAA with a .924 save percentage. Most importantly, he recovered from one of his worst games of the season, when he was benched during a 5-4 win at Florida, by shutting out the high-octane Ottawa Senators on Tuesday.

Now the Penguins will eventually be explosive due to the acquisition of Marian Hossa from the Atlanta Thrashers, as Hossa is just one year removed from a 100-point season and he will make a formidable duo with Sidney Crosby soon. However, this is Hossa’s first game with the Pens and Crosby is not ready for game action just yet. Thus, Pittsburgh may again rely on the red-hot goaltending of Ty Conkin, who has a sensational 2.19 GAA in 27 games and who incredibly stopped 50 shots vs. the Islanders Tuesday, basically stealing the 4-2 win himself.

We look for both goaltenders to stay hot here in a relatively low scoring contest.

NHL Free Pick: Penguins, Bruins Under 5.5 (-115)

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