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Public bettors and college football fans that like the ‘favorites’ found themselves in the ‘rough’ this past weekend. College football betting favorites went a wallet-busting 17-30-1 Against-the-Spread (ATS). The big betting favorites (2 touchdowns or more) were 9-12 ATS, so backing those big boys with your bankroll was not a complete bust, but still a losing proposition.

College football handicappers that prefer to rely mostly on current form during the first month of the season can find themselves ‘off course’ and ‘scrambling’ to find the ‘green’. After all, if you listen to the ‘talking heads’ and the TV network ‘experts’, they would have you believe that the dominating early season performances turned in by top-5 teams Florida, USC and Georgia make them unbeatable. So what happens on the final weekend of September? Florida loses on their home field as a 22-point favorite to Mississippi. No. 1 Southern Cal (USC) is outplayed on the road in Corvallis and loses to Oregon State as a 4-touchdown favorite. And the Bulldogs were beaten soundly as well, as Georgia ‘dawged’ it as a 7-point home favorite and were ‘rolled’ by the ‘Tide when Alabama built a 31-0 halftime lead and cruised over their SEC opponent.

The linemaker makes adjustments weekly based on a number of factors including previous weeks’ differences in the ATS results. The betting public will often look to ‘hot’ teams or teams coming off a powerful performance to continue their high-level of play. The reality is that letdowns, emotions and the ebb and flow of college contests with young athletes make it difficult to bring your ‘A’ game every week. Several factors must be considered and incorporated into your analysis and breakdown of a contest before you go ‘all-in’. One must consider scheduling, match-ups, injuries and motivation. Coaching and the ability to make adjustments factors into the equation, along with conference versus non-conference play.  You must use current stats and numbers to isolate strong, balanced offensive teams and better defensive units, and understand the strength of those numbers given the current slate of competition. The savvy handicapper can ‘dig’ through boxscores and incorporate some of the misleading statistical information, turnovers and special teams play into ‘value’ opportunities in upcoming contests. But perhaps one of the most misunderstood aspect of the point spread on a weekly basis is that the linemaker’s original opinion of a team’s fundamental strength can be an accurate indicator of long-term performance and point spread success.

What does this mean? There are some great opportunities in the upcoming college football schedule to get the ‘green’ and earn plenty of profit by comparing and understanding the week 1 power rating numbers to the current week’s power rating and point spread. Last season, perceptive and value-conscious shoppers were able to go 41-20 ATS during the 3-week stretch of games in late September and early October. They did it by comparing the week 1 power rating numbers to the current week’s line, and wagering on the teams with a 7+ point discrepancy favoring the week 1 number. Following that formula this past week proved very profitable, as those same bettors and myself were able to go 15-4 ATS by simply doing our homework and utilizing an original power rating to turn profits.

We cashed in on teams like SMU (+18), Oregon State (+25), Mississippi (+22) and Nevada (+4); all underdogs with three winning outright. How did we do that? By understanding that there are some over-adjustments in the betting line following 3-4 games, and applying some power rating principles and original team forecasts into value-betting opportunities. I’m a little disappointed we didn’t ‘let it rip’ and pile up more profits this past weekend by just following this formula and fundamental approach. This upcoming weekend has 16 contests that fit this profitable profile.

The Owls of Florida Atlantic (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) are the defending champions of the Sun Belt Conference, but have been a little disappointing thus far. On Tuesday night they will hit the road to face off against the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) in NCAA college football action that is set to get underway at 8 PM ET at Horace Jones Field/Floyd Stadium (artificial turf) in Murfreesboro, TN.

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NCAA Football Betting Odds: MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE -3
Here are some of the NCAA college football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* FAU has covered five of its last seven games
* FAU has played nine of its last 12 games OVER the total
* FAU has covered four of its last six road games
* FAU has lost 17 of its last 25 road games SU
* MT is 2-4-1 ATS in its last seven games
* MT has lost five of its last six games SU
* MT has played its last five games UNDER the total
* MT has covered four of its last six home games
* MT has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

To put it mildly, Rusty Smith has been a disappointment. The signal-caller for Florida Atlantic University generated quite a bit of buzz when he went 25 of 32 for 336 yards and five touchdowns in last year’s New Orleans Bowl, highlighting a season where he tossed 32 TD’s with just nine INT’s. Coming into his junior season, the speculation was whether Smith, who has NFL size, would opt out of college early and become one of the top two or three QB’s selected in the draft.

But right now Smith looks like a guy who’s got to go back to the drawing board. He misfired against Texas in the season opener, was just 17 of 34 with FOUR interceptions against Minnesota, and was a dismal 8 for 34 against Michigan State. He has hit on just 46% of his throws, and his Owls have generated just 13 points in their three losses. If there is some encouragement, it’s that Smith has been sacked only once this year, and when stepping down in quality of competition, against UAB, he threw for 325 yards and three TD’s in a 49-34 win. So it is not implausible to assume that against this Sun Belt Conference foe, he’ll be more productive. Middle Tennessee is 70th nationally in pass efficiency defense, although they have yielded just 56% completions.

The Owls will undoubtedly have to turn Charles Pierre (6.5 ypc) loose to help free up things for Smith, and such a thing is not impossible. The Blue Raiders have gotten better stuff out of Joe Craddock, who is 65% with 1076 yards passing, but they can’t run a lick (just 1.9 ypc).

When sufficiently motivated, MTSU can produce; in Week 2 of the season, the Raiders controlled the ball for nearly 40 minutes and scored a ten-point win over Maryland, which has since beaten nationally-ranked California and Clemson. This is a big occasion, with a crowd “blackout” scheduled.

The thing is, we’re absolutely convinced Smith is not as bad as his current stats would indicate, and after facing Big 12 and Big Ten foes, this MTSU defense may provide a bit of relief. The Owls have a more balanced offense, and let’s forget that to win the Sun Belt title and gain the bowl berth last year, FAU had to go on the road and beat Troy. Look for Howard Schnellenberger to pull something out of his bag of tricks and get things going in starting this “new slate” in conference play. Take the points with FAU, the three-point underdog in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: FLORIDA ATLANTIC +3 **
(Graded on a scale of 1-4 stars)

College football betting top 25 power rankings courtesy of Alex Smart, An award winning professional football handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting on college football this weekend and need winning ncaa picks visit Touthouse.com and buy Alex’s college football picks on Saturday.

1: Oklahoma Sooners (3-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 8 ) The Sooners move up to the top spot in the power poll this week because after their 35-10 whooping of TCU as 18.5-point favorites. OU returns to Big XII play this week against Baylor, and that could lead to a short stay as the top dog. Last year, they went just 3-6 ATS in conference play.
Next Up: Away @ Baylor (-27)

2: Ball State Cardinals (4-0 ATS, 5-0 SU) (LW: 4) Sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good. Football bettors pounded Ball State from -17 all the way up to 20.5 at close. Kent State looked set to backdoor the closing line with a late touchdown, but they missed the extra point sending elated BSU bettors to the window to cash their tickets.
Next Up: Away @ Toledo (-7)

3: Vanderbilt Commodores (4-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 3) The Commodores were off this week, but they did move into first place in the SEC East by virtue of both Georgia and Florida losing. They’ll take on Auburn next week, a team they’re just 1-4 ATS against since 2000.
Next Up: Home vs. Auburn (+4)

4: Duke Blue Devils (3-0 ATS, 3-1 SU) (LW: 13) The biggest jump of the week belongs to Duke, who annihilated Virginia 31-3, easily covering the spread as seven-point home favorites. HC David Cutcliffe deserves to be enshrined if he can get the Dookies to a bowl game this year. The Blue Devils will hope to bump their winning streak to three against GTECH this week, but they haven’t covered the spread against the Jackets since 2003.
Next Up: Away @ Georgia Tech (+14)

5: Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 11) The Cowboys are moving up the power poll quickly, with another really impressive victory over Troy. They knocked off the Trojans 55-24 as 17.5-point home chalks, and in their ATS ‘W’s this year, they’ve averaged beating the spread by 11.8 ppg.
Next Up: Home vs. Texas A&M (-23.5)

6: Texas Longhorns (4-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 10) Another 20+ pointspread, another cover for Longhorns bettors. For the third time this year, they beat an opponent by the score of 52-10 when they knocked off the Razorbacks. Next up is Colorado, a team they slaughtered 70-3 the last time they met in the ’05 Big XII title game.
Next Up: Away @ Colorado (-14)

7: Alabama Crimson Tide (4-1 ATS, 5-0 SU) (LW: 12) They may be young, but the Crimson Tide are for real! As 6.5-point underdogs, the Tide rolled out of the gates to a 31-0 advantage over Georgia. Though there were some scary moments in the second half, Alabama bettors never had anything to sweat about.
Next Up: Home vs. Kentucky (-16.5)

8: Tulsa Golden Hurricane (3-0 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 5) The Golden Hurricane struggled for awhile with Central Arkansas, but ultimately pounded them 62-34. It should be a real fun game in Tulsa next week when the high flying Rice Owls come to town. Last year, these teams combined to put 91 points on the board.
Next Up: Home vs. Rice (-14)

9: Air Force Falcons (3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU) (LW: 9) It was a bye week for Air Force. They’ll return to the field on Saturday against Navy, a team they haven’t beaten or covered against since 2002.
Next Up: Home vs. Navy (-6)

10: Southern California Trojans (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) (LW: 1) For college football bettors that already had the Trojans penciled into the BCS National Championship game, get out your erasers. USC was absolutely pathetic in their Thursday night showdown with the Beavers at Reser Stadium, falling behind 21-0 at halftime and losing 27-21 when it was all said and done. The Trojans have now lost outright as 24.5 and 41-point favorites in each of the last two seasons. Hmmmmmmm…….
Next Up: Home vs. Oregon (-17)

11: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-0 ATS, 3-1 SU) (LW: 16) The Yellow Jackets were on their bye last week. Though normally getting a bye week to prepare for Duke would be ridiculously unfair, HC Paul Johnson knows not to rest on the also-ATS unbeaten Blue Devils.
Next Up: Home vs. Duke (-14)

12: Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1 ATS, 5-0 SU) (LW: 2) It was tough luck for Nittany Lions bettors who laid the 15 points against Illinois. Though PSU was clearly the better team on the field, they came up a point short of beating the football betting line. They’re 7-2 ATS their L/9 meetings against this weeks opponent, Purdue.
Next Up: Away @ Purdue (-12)

13: Northern Illinois Huskies (3-0 ATS, 2-2 SU) (LW: 21) After narrowly covering the spread two weeks ago, Huskies bettors came up with an easy winner this week with their 37-0 victory over Eastern Michigan as short road favorites. Even though they’ll be big underdogs in Knoxville next week, NIU has covered all three of their trips to SEC stadiums since ’99.
Next Up: Away @ Tennessee (+16)

14: Brigham Young Cougars (2-1 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 15) The Cougars had a week to prepare for their game this Friday nights game against Utah State. BYU has dominated the lesser teams on their schedule of late, as they’ve covered the spread in seven of their L/10 games against teams below .500.
Next Up: Away @ Utah State (-28.5)

15: Tulane Green Wave (3-1 ATS, 2-2 SU) (LW: 6) With a 31-10 lead in the 3rd quarter, Green Wave bettors had to be set to cash their tickets. Unfortunately, they were knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten ATS teams when they were outscored 17-3 by SMU down the stretch. Tulane has covered against Army in three straight meetings, and they’ll host the winless Black Knights this Saturday.
Next Up: Home vs. Army (-19)

16: Minnesota Golden Gophers (3-1 ATS, 4-1 SU) (LW: 17) The backdoor was wide open for Minnesota bettors in their visit to the “Shoe” this past weekend. Even though the Gophers were behind 34-6 early in the 4th, they scored two TDs in the final nine minutes to cover the 20-points and beat the spread for the third straight game. They’ll take on Indiana this week, a team who’s yet to record a pointspread victory for their bettors in 2008.
Next Up: Home vs. Indiana (-7.5)

17: Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-0-1 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 18) The 7th ranked team in the land starts its conference play when the Red Raiders travel to Kansas State this week. Since 2000, Texas Tech is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS against the Wildcats.
Next Up: Away @ Kansas State (-6.5)

18: Georgia Bulldogs (2-1-1 ATS, 4-1 SU) (LW: 7) Though the Bulldogs have one of the hardest schedules in the country, not many expected to see Georgia lose to Alabama at home last Saturday. They’ll have a week to lick their wounds before playing Tennessee.
Next Up: Bye

19: Missouri Tigers (2-1 ATS, 4-0 SU) (LW: 20) With Georgia, Florida, and USC all losing this week, the Tigers have garnered some first place votes in the polls on their bye week. They head to Nebraska this week, a place they haven’t won or covered the spread in their last three visits.
Next Up: Away @ Nebraska (-10)

20: Texas Christian Horned Frogs (3-1 ATS, 4-1 SU) (LW: 14) The Horned Frogs put up a decent effort in Norman against the Sooners, but it wasn’t quite enough to stay within the 18.5-points for their football bettors. The #5 defense in the country will come home next week, a place they’re a whopping 37-16 ATS in their L/53 games.
Next Up: Home vs. San Diego State (-24.5)

21: Ohio Bobcats (3-1 ATS, 1-4 SU) (LW: 24) Ohio picked up their first victory of the season in their 51-31 thrashing of VMI last weekend. Sports bettors have the chance to wager on the Bobcats again this week when they take on Western Michigan, a team that will be looking to avenge 2006’s 27-21 defeat.
Next Up: Away @ Western Michigan (+4)

22: North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1 ATS, 3-1 SU) (LW: NR) North Carolina looked dead in the water in Miami when they trailed 24-14 with less than ten minutes to play as 7.5-point underdogs. QB Cam Sexton, playing due to the injury to TJ Yates led the Tarheels for not only the spread-covering TD, but then a game-winning one with just 0:46 remaining. They step out of conference this week to take on the banged up UCONN Huskies.
Next Up: Home vs. Connecticut (-7)

23: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (3-1 ATS, 2-2 SU) (LW: 25) The Golden Eagles return to action this week when they take on UTEP. Last season, SMS knocked the Miners off 56-30 as three-point road favorites. They’ll need another strong offensive effort if they’re going to cover this week, as UTEP averages over 30.2 ppg.
Next Up: Home vs. UTEP (-8)

24: Mississippi Rebels (3-1 ATS, 3-2 SU) (LW: NR) Someone forgot to tell Ole Miss that they were supposed to lose to the Gators last weekend. Instead, the Rebs took out #4 UF 31-30 as 23-point underdogs. They’ve got another tough SEC matchup this weekend when the Gamecocks come to Oxford, a place where Mississippi is 8-3-1 ATS in their L/12.
Next Up: Home vs. South Carolina (-2)

25: Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (3-1 ATS, 1-3 SU) (LW: NR) For the second time in three weeks, the Ragin’ Cajuns came awfully close to winning a game as 20+ point underdogs. They’ve covered the spread in three straight games, averaging posting winners for their college football bettors by 16.8 ppg.
Next Up: Away @ Louisiana-Monroe (-1.5)

Dropped Out: Troy (19), Miami (22), Colorado (23)

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Minnesota Twins (135) – Tue September 30th ’08 7:35p

The Chicago White Sox did what they had to do yesterday by beating the Detroit Tigers to necessitate this one-game playoff for the American League Central Division title, but we look for the underdog Minnesota Twins to advance to the ALDS with a victory in the Windy City tonight.The White Sox were forced to use they best pitcher this year in Gavin Floyd yesterday just to get to this point, so they are now starting John Danks on three days rest. Now Danks did have an excellent 3.47 ERA overall this year, but he is unproven on short rest and he had not had any success vs. the Twins this year.

In fact, Danks failed to record a Quality Start in four starts vs. Minnesota, allowing a total of 17 earned runs and 29 hits in just 19.1 innings over those outings. He also ended the season on a negative noted, as he was torched for seven earned runs while last just four innings vs. the Cleveland Indians last Friday. It does not help his cause that he is facing a Twins lineup that is batting .295 vs. left-handed pitching over the last 10 games.

Now Minnesota starter Nick Blackburn certainly has modest numbers this year, as he is 11-10 with a 4.14 ERA overall. However, his last start was his best one in some time as he allowed just two run in five innings, and that start happened to come against these White Sox.

Blackburn also has the support of a Minnesota bullpen that finished tenth in the major leagues and sixth in the American League with a 3.94 pen ERA. We feel that ultimately, the superior Twins bullpen will determine the outcome of this contest.

MLB Free Pick: Twins +135 – Courtesy of LT Profits

Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins u9.0 (-120)
Sun Sep 28 ’08 2:10p

Today the Minnesota Twins will attempt to secure the AL Central crown against a surging Royals squad. Kansas City would normally send Zach Greinke to the hill today but they have shut him down, and instead will give the ball to Brandon Duckworth. The Twins will be counting on Scott Baker to seal the deal for them. We are going to go with the under 9 in this critical contest.

Brandon Duckworth has only pitched in six games this year as a result of injury. He came off the DL in August and the Royals tossed him into the starting rotation. While he is not a household name, he is a serviceable pitcher. In his six starts he has averaged about 5.5 innings per game and given up three earned runs per contest. The average score of the Royals’ opposition in his six starts was 3.83. I think he will keep KC in this game with a quality effort today.

Scott Baker is arguably the Twins best pitcher and he is having an outstanding season. Baker possesses a 3.94 ERA, 10-4 record, and a 1.20 WHIP. He will no doubt feel the big game pressure in today’s situation and I think he will come through with a great performance. Why? In his last 10 starts at home Baker has given up an average of just two earned runs per game and in his eight career starts versus Kansas City, the Royals have averaged just 2.63 runs per game. The under is 6-1-1 in those eight starts.

Free MLB Pick: Take Under 9 (-120)

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Week 4 NFL Football Power Rankings-Ratings Courtesy of Alex Smart, An Award Winning Professional Football Handicapper featured on Touthouse.com. If you are betting NFL football this Sunday..Click Here to Buy Alex’s Expert NFL Picks

NFL Football Power Rankings for Week 4 NFL
1: Tennessee Titans (3-0 ATS, 3-0 SU) There is no doubt that the Titans have been the most clutch team for NFL bettors this year. They beat both Jacksonville and Cincinnati outright as underdogs, and then crushed the Texans 31-12 last week as 4.5-point favorites. However, Week 4 has been awful to Tennessee of late. They’re just 1-9 ATS in their L/10 Week 4 games.
Next Up: Home vs. Vikings (-3)

2: Philadelphia Eagles (3-0 ATS, 2-1 SU) The Eagles have a good gripe for the top spot in the power poll as well. Last week, they knocked off Pittsburgh 15-6 as 3.5-point home favorites. They’re now 5-1 ATS in their L/6 games overall.
Next Up: Away @ Bears (-3.5)

3: Dallas Cowboys (2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU) The Cowboys could be the best team in the NFL, but they’re not spotless for their football bettors. Still, at 2-1, Dallas has been impressive, especially after they covered the spread as short favorites in Green Bay on Sunday Night Football last week. They have a hefty spread to cover this week at home against the Skins.
Next Up: Home vs. Redskins (-11)

4: Baltimore Ravens (2-0 ATS, 2-0 SU) There hasn’t been much respect for the Ravens yet in ’08, and no wonder. They went 3-13 ATS last season. The Joe Flacco era has begun with a bang this year though, as Baltimore is 2-0 and has beaten the spread by an average of 12-points per game.
Next Up: Away @ Steelers (+8)

5: Buffalo Bills (2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU) With Tom Brady on the sidelines for the season, the Bills have a great shot to win the AFC East. Even though they didn’t cover the 10-point spread against Oakland last week, they’re still a very impressive 2-1 ATS. The loss snapped a streak of six out of seven covers dating back to last year.
Next Up: Away @ Rams (-9.5)

6: New York Giants (2-1 ATS, 3-0 SU) The defending champs opened the season with two very impressive covers against Washington and St. Louis. Last week, they almost tripped up against the Bengals, needing overtime to take out Cincy. The ATS defeat snapped the league’s longest streak of covering the spread at eight games.
Next Up: Bye

7: Atlanta Falcons (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) Give credit to Matt Ryan and the Falcons for tallying two very impressive victories in their first three games of the season. They whooped Detroit and Kansas City by an average of 17.5 ppg ATS. Now they head to Carolina, a place where they won 20-13 as 3.5-point underdogs a year ago.
Next Up: Away @ Panthers (+7)

8: Green Bay Packers (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) The Pack ran into a buzz saw last Sunday night against the Cowboys, but that shouldn’t take away from their first two covers of the season. Good news for Green Bay fans is that two NFC South teams are on the horizon. They’re 7-1 ATS in their L/8 games against the division.
Next Up: Away @ Buccaneers (+1)

9: Oakland Raiders (2-1 ATS, 1-2 SU) Even though Lane Kiffin is clearly in his last days as the head coach in Oakland, his team has responded to the controversy by covering back-to-back games. Their luck could run out this week, as the visiting Chargers are 9-1 ATS against the silver and black over the L/5 years.
Next Up: Home vs. Chargers (+9)

10: Denver Broncos (1-1-1 ATS, 3-0 SU) Broncos bettors have deserved better luck this season. After pushing the spread against the Chargers in Week 2, they had the Saints dominated last week, only to let New Orleans hit the backdoor with a 13-3 rally to end the game. Denver covered the spread against this week’s opponent, Kansas City, in both of their match-ups last season.
Next Up: Away @ Chiefs (-9.5)

11: San Francisco 49ers (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) After dropping their opening game at home to Arizona, the Niners suddenly look like a legitimate NFC West contender. They’ve scored 30+ points in each of their L/2 games, both wins and both covers. San Fran is just 2-9 ATS in their L/11 meetings with their next opponent, New Orleans.
Next Up: Away @ Saints (+6)

12: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) All looked lost for Bucs bettors last week when they trailed the Bears in the “Windy City” by two scores late in the 4th. QB Brian Griese rallied the troops for an OT victory, the second straight Bucs cover.
Next Up: Home vs. Packers (-1)

13: Chicago Bears (1-1-1 ATS, 1-2 SU) The Bears successfully snapped defeat from the jaws of victory against the Bucs last Sunday, and now are stuck facing the red hot Eagles this week. Soldier Field hasn’t been kind to Chicago bettors of late, as they are just 4-10 ATS in their L/14 home games.
Next Up: Home vs. Eagles (+3.5)

14: Arizona Cardinals (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) The Cardinals took advantage of a weak schedule to move to 2-0 SU and ATS, but ran into trouble last week in Washington. They never led against the Redskins, and never had much of a chance to cover the spread at +3. Things may not get easier this week in New York, as the Cards are 4-8 ATS in their L/12 against the AFC East.
Next Up: Away @ Jets (+1)

15: Washington Redskins (2-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) Back-to-back covers as short favorites has to give Washington some confidence after getting throttled 16-7 in the Meadowlands on opening night. The loss snapped a streak of three consecutive covers against the NFC East. The Skins will hope to return to their winning ways against the Cowboys and Eagles the next two weeks.
Next Up: Away @ Cowboys (+11)

16: New Orleans Saints (2-1 ATS, 1-2 SU) The Saints might have fallen a Martin Gramatica field goal short of beating the Broncos last week, but they did stay within the 5-points for their football bettors. TE Jeremy Shockey was added to a lengthy injury list this week, so covering six-points against San Fran might be difficult.
Next Up: Home vs. 49ers (-6)

17: Carolina Panthers (1-1-1 ATS, 2-1 SU) It appears as though the Panthers have crashed back to reality after opening up the season with a resounding win against San Diego. After leading 10-0 in Minnesota, the Vikes rolled off 20 straight points, costing Panthers bettors a sure-fire winning ticket. Carolina is just 3-7-1 in their L/11 home games.
Next Up: Home vs. Falcons (-7)

18: Jacksonville Jaguars (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) It was a must-win game for the 0-2 Jags in Indianapolis last week, and football bettors got just what the doctor ordered. Jacksonville won 23-21 on a game-winning field goal as time expired, and will hope to keep their streak going against lowly Houston this week.
Next Up: Home vs. Texans (-9)

19: San Diego Chargers (1-1-1 ATS, 1-2 SU) After two very lackluster performances, the Chargers of old finally made their first appearance on Monday Night Football against the Jets. Though many thought they were ripe to be upset, San Diego not only beat New York, but beat them senseless. They’ll hope to keep that momentum going in Oakland this week, a place where they have covered six straight games.
Next Up: Away @ Raiders (-9)

20: Pittsburgh Steelers (1-2 ATS, 2-1 SU) In their L/2 games, both on the road, Pittsburgh has only managed to score 16 total points. Football bettors could be in for another long week, as the Steelers have only beaten the NFL betting line once in their L/6 meetings.
Next Up: Home vs. Ravens (-6)

21: Indianapolis Colts (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) It’s been a very frustrating season for Indy bettors this season, particularly in their new home, Lucas Oil Stadium. Their loss to Jacksonville last week marked their second consecutive home loss. The last time the Colts lost back-to-back home games was in 2001.
Next Up: Bye

22: Miami Dolphins (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) Hello Miami! The Fins hadn’t showed a pulse in almost two years, but on Sunday, they posted a tremendous victory over the Pats as 12.5-point underdogs. They could be in a decent spot to pick up another ‘W’ after their bye week, as they are 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS in their L/6 meetings against the Chargers, whom they’ll meet in two weeks.
Next Up: Bye

23: New England Patriots (1-2 ATS, 2-1 SU) The NFL’s longest winning streak came to a close against the Dolphins last week, and boy was it a disappointment. They were -12.5 and got whooped by 25 points against the winless Fins. Fortunately, they have a bye week to lick their wounds, but they’re out on the West coast the two weeks to follow.
Next Up: Bye

24: Minnesota Vikings (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) Minnesota bettors picked up their first ‘W’ of the season when they took out the Panthers 20-10 as 3.5-point favorites last Sunday. The Vikes rarely play next week’s opponent, Tennessee, but are 4-0 SU and ATS against the Titans since ’98.
Next Up: Away @ Titans (+3)

25: New York Jets (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) Brett Favre is battling an ankle injury, and the Jets don’t appear to be ready for lift-off any time in the near future. The last two weeks, they have failed to cover the spread by an average of nine ppg. They return home this week, and that probably means more bad news. New York is just 2-6-1 ATS in their L/8 home games.
Next Up: Home vs. Cardinals (-1)

26: Seattle Seahawks (1-2 ATS, 1-2 SU) After failing to cover the teaser number in either of their first two games, the Seahawks responded by destroying the Rams 37-13 at home last Sunday. That broke a spurt of four out of five regular season games where they failed to cover.
Next Up: Bye

27: Cincinnati Bengals (1-2 ATS, 0-3 SU) The Bengals might be one of the worst five teams in football, but at least they can say that they pushed the defending champs to the brink. They never trailed the 13-point spread against the G-Men last weekend, giving Cincy bettors their first cover of the season. In their L/7 games after covering the spread, the Bengals are just 1-6 ATS.
Next Up: Home vs. Browns (-3.5)

28: Cleveland Browns (1-2 ATS, 0-3 SU) Last year might’ve been a dream for Cleveland bettors, going 12-4 ATS, but 2008 hasn’t seen that luck continue. The Browns are 1-2 ATS and haven’t had a real chance of producing a straight up ‘W’ yet. As a result, NFL bettors might get their first look at Brady Quinn as a starting QB sooner than later.
Next Up: Away @ Bengals (+3.5)

29: Houston Texans (0-2 ATS, 0-2 SU) Texans bettors deserved much better than a 19-point defeat in Tennessee last weekend. They came up empty on several red zone trips in the second half, which was capped off by a 99-yard INT return for a touchdown on the final meaningful drive of the game. They’ve now failed to cover in eight of their L/9 road games.
Next Up: Away @ Jaguars (+9)

30: Kansas City Chiefs (1-2 ATS, 0-3 SU) There really appears to be no hope for the Chiefs this year. KC bettors got fortunate with the injury to Tom Brady in Week 1, but they haven’t even come close to covering a spread since. Last week in Atlanta, they lost by 24 as 6.5-point underdogs. No one should mention to HC Herm Edwards that they lost to Denver 41-7 the last time they hooked up…
Next Up: Home vs. Broncos (+9.5)

31: Detroit Lions (0-3 ATS, 0-3 SU) The only thing giving the Lions the nod over St. Louis is the fact that they finally fired Matt Millen. There’s more good news in Detroit this week too… Even the Lions should figure out how to avoid a loss to the bye week.
Next Up: Bye

32: St. Louis Rams (0-3 ATS, 0-3 SU) Sports bettors who have been super teasing the Rams every week aren’t very happy right now. Not only has St. Louis gone 0-3 ATS, they’ve failed to cover each of those games by at least 13-points. The good news is if they lose to Buffalo this week by the same margin as they did the last time they played each other, Rams bettors will only lose by 11.5-points.
Next Up: Home vs. Bills (+9.5)

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Green Bay Packers +1.0 (-110) NFL Odds – Sunday, September 28th ’08 1:00p
The Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers renew their Bay of Pigs rivalry from the old NFL Central days this week, and we look for the cold-climate Packers to prevail in the Florida heat. The Buccaneers have been a pleasant surprise at 2-1, and they could easily be 3-0 as they blew a late lead in their only loss at New Orleans. Still, Brian Griese is coming off of a career day in a 27-24 overtime victory vs. the Chicago Bears, passing for 407 years while throwing the ball an ungodly 67 times. Simply put, Griese is not good enough to have two solid games in a row, and if the Tampa Bay running game gets stuffed again, we feel that the Bucs would be in for a very long day. Do not forget that for all the yardage that Griese passed for last week, he did also toss three interceptions. Meanwhile, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers must be salivating at the opportunity to pass against a Tampa Bay secondary that was shredded b Kyle Orton of all people last week. If the likes of Brandon Lloyd could garner 134 receiving yards vs. the Bucs, how are they supposed to contain the duo of Greg Jennings and Donald Driver? The answer is probably that they cannot, so look for Rodgers to pass the Pack to a big road win. NFL Free Pick: Packers +1 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits
 
Minnesota Vikings +3.0 (-110) Football Odds – Sunday, September 28th ’08 1:00p
We feel that this matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and the Tennessee Titans is a battle between a slightly underrated team and a slightly overrated team, and that the underrated team is the underdog. Remember that the Vikings were the preseason pick by many to win the NFC North, but many people soured on them after an 0-2 start. Well, they could have gone 2-0 in those games with any quarterback play whatsoever, and they did indeed break through the win column vs. the Carolina Panthers last week after finally making the switch to Gus Frerotte under center. Meantime, the Titans are 3-0 but they have yet to face a team that is capable of stopping the run. That is not the case here vs. a Minnesota defense that is surrendering a miniscule 70.3 rushing yards per game on 3.2 yards per rush, and we do not trust Kerry Collins to stand in vs. probably the best defensive line in all of football. Finally, this game means a lot more to the Vikings, as they are still chasing the Green Bay Packers while the Titans already have a two-game lead in the AFC South. Look for an outright upset. NFL Free Pick: Vikings +3 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits

Philadelphia Eagles -3.0 (-110) – Sunday September 28th ’08 8:15p
The (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS) Philadelphia Eagles stroll into Soldier Field for its Week 4 battle with the (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS) Chicago Bears riding high after dominating the Pittsburgh Steelers at “The Linc” last Sunday. The same can’t be said about Chicago who choked another one away in the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Philadelphia has dominated the last six of the recent series going 5-1 SU but just 3-3 ATS. Philadelphia bounced back in style off its MNF loss to division rival Dallas its last time out against in-state rival Pittsburgh. Even though the 15-6 final verdict doesn’t portray a beatdown, don’t let the final score deceive you. Philly dominated from the onset limiting the Steelers to less than 200 total yards of offense, forced three turnovers, and sacked Pitt QB Ben Roethlisberger nine freaking times. The nine point victory cashed Philly bettors tickets laying the 3.5-points, and the combined 21 points never seriously threatened the closing ‘total’ of 44.5. The ATS cash was the birds third straight to start their ‘08 campaign, and they’ve rattled off six straight pointspread covers per the closing NFL lines. Last weeks OT loss at home to Tampa was extremely tough for Chicago to swallow, but even more so for NFL sportsbettors that backed them as three-point home chalks. The Bears held a 10-point lead with less than four minutes to go in the game, but somehow managed to allow Brian Griese and the Bucs offense to rattle off 10 straight points to force the extra session. After the defense pinned the Bucs deep in their own territory, CB Charles Tillman got caught defending his teammate and got flagged for unnecessary roughness allowing the Bucs drive to continue. Already exhausted, the Bears “D” let up a number of big pass plays that allowed Matt Bryant to nail the chip shot eight yarder to seal the Bears fate. Chicago’s now a pathetic 4-10 ATS its L/14 overall home games; look for McNabb and the “Iggles” to avenge last years shocking home loss with ease….. – Courtesy of Mike Rose

Kansas City Chiefs +10.0 – Sunday Sep 28 ’08 1:00p
Sunday afternoons conflict between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos is a game that has the public money pouring in all over the Broncos. Denver right now are media darlings , after coming out of the gate with 3 straight victories , including back and forth exiting wins against the high flying Saints and Chargers. Most of the pundits are caught up in Broncomania while at the same time, taking note of the Chiefs current 0-3 start, and unlucky 13 game SU losing streak that dates back to last season. I know the Broncos QB Jay Cutler(914 yds,8 TDs) is a top flight talent with some surprising down field weapons , but what a lot of pundits are ignoring is their extremely vulnerable defense. With that said,look for KC QB Damon Huard and his under performing but viable down field weapons to open the playbook, for some surprising success, against a Denver defensive secondary, that is giving up 316 passing yards per game. It is never easy laying money down on a downtrodden team like the Chiefs, but you have to remember this is a long standing divisional rivalry that is sure to bring out the best in the home dog. Final notes & Key Trends: Denver has failed to cover 13 of their L/17 against division foes. Home team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. I’ll call this wager, my Ugly Betty Game of the Week. Best of luck, and God Bless. Play on the Chiefs – Courtesy of Alex Smart

The top-ranked USC Trojans (2-0 SU & ATS) will put their undefeated record on the line on Saturday when they face off against the Oregon State Beavers (1-2 SU & ATS) in a Pac-10 college football matchup that is set to take place at 9 PM ET at Reser Stadium (artificial turf) in Corvallis, OR.

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Thursday, September 25
BetUS NCAAF Betting Odds: USC -25, Total 51

Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* USC has covered six of its last seven games
* USC has won its last seven games SU
* USC has played ten of its last 13 games UNDER the total
* USC has covered four of its last five road games
* USC has won 22 of its last 25 road games SU
* USC has played four of its last six road games UNDER the total
* OSU has won and covered eight of its last 11 games
* OSU has played five of its last seven games OVER the total
* OSU has played four of its last five home games UNDER the total

Also….
* USC has won five of the last six meetings SU
* Four of the last six meetings have gone UNDER the total

How dominant was USC against Ohio State? Well, the Buckeyes got just 84 yards out of 21 throws by starting quarterback Todd Boeckman, and only 2.1 yards a carry out of its rushing game. After a while, it looked like the Trojans got bored.

It is going to be very hard to dislodge USC from its perch atop the college football polls, and Oregon State, despite giving the Trojans a rough go of it on their home field (winning two of the last the meetings in Corvallis) they aren’t likely to be the team to do it. But USC probably benefits a little more by the rest, and unless this is another of those games where Pete Carroll’s team loses focus (as it did against Stanford last year), you should see a crisp performance.

In the early going, Oregon State is not stopping people on the ground the way it did last season, when it was #1, statistically speaking, in the country, allowing less than 71 ypg. This year, it’s a different story, as might have been expected when OSU lost its entire starting front seven off the team that beat Maryland in the Emerald Bowl. Now the Beavers are yielding 169 yards a contest and 4.8 yards a pop. And here comes USC with its scary, deep running game, which complements surprisingly-accurate QB Mark Sanchez (68%) rather well. Even so, the story with Southern Cal is not necessarily offense, but defense. And we don’t see Lyle Moevao (6 TD’s, 4 INT’s) getting very far against this group.

USC is allowing a national-low 3.28 yards per play. Sanchez will have time to throw. But we can see this game being won on the ground, and on defense, where the Men of Troy haven’t permitted a touchdown in the last seven quarters. We don’t see how this game will move close to the 50-mark, so we’re going UNDER the total of 51 points in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: UNDER 51 ***

St. Louis Cardinals (-113) – Thu September 25th ’08 2:15p
It’s an old sports cliché but I’ll use it again. The Arizona Diamondbacks are TOAST. As in “Put a fork in them, they’re done”. After winning Monday’s series opener at Busch Stadium the D-Backs have lost two straight. Coupled with the Dodgers back-to-back wins, Arizona is now one loss away or an LA victory away from being eliminated from playoff contention. The Snakes will look to stay alive when they send Doug Davis to the mound in the series finale against the Cardinals. Davis is 6-8 with a 3.25 ERA but hasn’t factored in the decision in his last four starts. Lifetime vs. the Redbirds, Davis is 4-5 with a 4.79 ERA in 13 starts against St. Louis and allowed three runs in six innings of a 4-3 win over Cardinals on Sept. 3. Davis is a cancer survivor. He pitched only weeks AFTER having surgery earlier this season. I always pull for a guy like that. However his team is running on fumes and facing the reality that they need to win out and have the Dodgers lose all four. Neither one of those things will happen. St. Louis rested three starters last night: Albert Pujols, Ryan Ludwick and Troy Glaus. All three will be back in today’s line-up. Pujols, hitting .350 is batting .323 (10-for-31) with five doubles, two home runs and nine RBIs against Davis. Joel Pinero has lost two straight but has pitched well. The Cardinals are playing for pride and with their rested starters back in the line-up; I say this is where Arizona’s road comes to an end. IF the Cardinals win, as expected, go against the Dodgers tonight. LA will be resting their regulars especially against Jake Peavy. – Free MLB Picks Courtesy of Bob Harvey

Cincinnati Reds (175) – Thu September 25th ’08 8:05p
Roy Oswalt of the Houston Astros carries a 22-1 career record vs. the Cincinnati Reds into this contest tonight including 3-0 this year, and he is simultaneously trying to keep the slim Astros playoff hopes alive. Well, we feel that Houston supporters may be in line for a huge surprise. First of all, Oswalt has not been as unhittable as usual vs. the Reds this year, as they have actually managed 21 hits plus five walks in 19 innings off of him. They have failed to get many key hits however, managing six runs in those three games with four coming in one game. Still, if they can get just three runs here, it just may be good enough to pull the upset. This is due to a combination of Reds starter Johnny Cueto pitching well lately, Cincinnati having a good bullpen and the Houston offense going in the tank as of late. Cueto has now allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, and he has the support of a Reds pen that ranks third in the National League with a 3.78 ERA. They are facing an Astros lineup that is batting an anorexic .200 over the last 10 games while averaging just 2.60 runs per game. We anticipate a very low scoring game here, and in what should be a tight game late, we see great value in having the better bullpen at this fat price. MLB Free Pick: Reds +175 – Free MLB Picks Courtesy of LT Profits

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Kent +18.0 – Saturday, September 27th 2008 12:00p
The Ball State Cardinals enter into this Home Coming contest against visiting Kent State in a somber mood , Receiver Dante Love suffered a career-ending spinal cord injury last week , in his teams 42-20 win against state rivals the Indiana Hoosiers . It must be noted that the young man, had successful surgery to repair the damage, and is expected to walk again and live a normal life. Love is currently ranked 2nd in the nation in receiving yards , and was one of the Cardinals all time top stats leaders at his position . His versatility also made him a dangerous special teams player, and the impact of his loss will be much greater than some pundits might expect . The combination of last weeks emotional win and the loss of one of their biggest stars , will hinder the Cardinals abilities to concentrate and compete at a high level here this week, even though they are facing a sub .500 opponent in their MAC conference opener. Final notes & Key Trends: Kent State may only be 2-12 ATS dating back to last season, but for the most part they have been very competitive , with their average margin of defeat ringing in at just 8 PPG. Play on the Golden Flashes to cover -Projected score: Ball State 34 Kent 24 – Courtesy of Alex Smart

Indiana +8.0 (-110) – Sat September 27th ’08 12:00p
The Indiana Hoosiers and Michigan State Spartans are very similar in that both teams have run oriented offenses and both defend the run well, so in what figures to be a tight battle, it seems prudent to grab more than a touchdown with the home team here. In fact, the home underdogs are actually averaging more points and yards offensively and allowing fewer yards per game defensively, meaning that this line may be based more on reputation than on the performances of these teams on the field this season. Indiana is averaging 32.0 points and 446.7 total yards per game while going 2-1 so far, with a whopping 271.3 of those yards coming on the ground. The Hoosiers are averaging an impressive 5.7 yards per rush, and quarterback Kellen Lewis has made up for his passing deficiencies by leading the team with 331 rushing years on a terrific 9.5 yards per carry. The Indiana defense has done its part by allowing just 19.3 points and 298.0 total yards per game, limiting opposing rushers to 3.1 yards per carry. Now the Spartans are off to a 3-1 start, and they are averaging 28.2 points on 376.0 yards per game. While those numbers look impressive, they are actually not as good as Indiana and the yardage numbers are padded somewhat by a dominating performance on the ground vs. a bad Notre Dame team last week. Their defense has been solid, allowing only 13 points per game, but they are allowing an average of 324.2 totals yards and 3.8 yards per rush, more than half a yard higher that the Hoosiers run defense allows per carry. Add this all up and we see a field goal type contest either way, so we feel Indiana offers lots of value at this price at home. CFB Free Pick: Indiana +8 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits
 
Virginia Tech +7.0 (-110) – Sat September 27th ’08 8:00p
The Nebraska Cornhuskers are 3-0 and outscoring their opponents by an average score of 40.0-14.3, but the Virginia Hokies represent a jump up in class here. After all, the Huskers three blowout wins have come vs. New Mexico State, San Jose State and Western Michigan. They are now facing a legitimate defense for the first time all year, and while the Hokies are allowing a few more points and yards than recent seasons, they have still displayed big play ability with 11 takeaways and seven sacks. Also do not forget that Virginia Tech already has two conference wins, and their only loss was at East Carolina, so that have not faced the same cupcake schedule that Nebraska has taken on. They are also coming off of an impressive road win over an up and coming North Carolina program. While Nebraska may have the more gaudy statistics on paper, we feel that a tougher schedule for Virginia Tech to this point has better prepared them to take this contest down to the wire, and an outright shocker would not surprise us. CFB Free Pick: Virginia Tech +7 (-110) – Courtesy of LT Profits

Oklahoma State -17.0 (-110) – Saturday, September 27 ’08 7:00p
Under normal circumstances I would tend to look toward the big dog in this one. However, that’s not the case this year, as Okla. St. will be highly motivated for this one. Okla St. went to Troy last year as a 10.5 point favorite and were embarrassed on national TV getting blown-out 41-23. They were off last week, therefore have had 2 weeks to prepare for the rematch and are catching Troy coming off a tough game last week at Ohio St. Look for Okla St. to roll in this one. – Courtesy of JB Sports

Navy +16.5 (-110) – Sat September 27th ’08 3:45p
The Navy Midshipmen are off to a 2-2 start this year, but this Saturday they will meet perhaps their toughest opponent to date in Wake Forest. Despite the difficult draw, we are going to go with Navy +16.5 on the road against the Demon Deacons. Navy’s two losses this year both occurred on the road, the first one against a high-powered Ball State team and the second versus the vastly improved Duke Blue Devils. The Midshipmen’s biggest issue in the Ball State game was their inability to get the Cardinals off the field on third down, consequently, they were dropped 35-23. Navy carried a 24-20 lead into halftime at Duke but allowed the Devils to post 21 second half points (they still finished within 10). Wake Forest is a quality team but they have not exactly been overpowering. Their biggest win was their opener at Baylor (41-13), but the Bears handed the Deacons five turnovers, making the margin of victory more than it normally would have been. Since that win they beat Ole Miss 30-28 (Mississippi three turnovers) and Florida State 12-3 (FSU seven turnovers).Wake also has not exhibited a dominant running game (2.6 yards per carry) which could lead to more third and long situations versus Navy. The Midshipmen have proven that they can run the ball (345.8 yards per game on the ground) and this will limit the Demon Deacons ability to run the score up. While their defense is far from being a big stopper, they should be able to get at least a few. Navy will not hand Wake points via turnover either, as their other opponents have. On the year the Midshipmen are averaging just one turnover per game. Wake will get the win, but Navy will hang around here and make this game closer than people might think. Free Pick: Take Navy +16.5 (-110) – Courtesy of Matt Foust

Nebraska -7.0 (-110) – Sat September 27th ’08 8:00p
In one of two ACC vs. Big XII games this weekend, the Virginia Tech Hokies (3-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) will storm Lincoln to face head coach Bo Pelini’s rejuvenated Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS). The Hokies are coming off of a big come-from-behind 20-17 win against the Tar Heels. Pelini’s Cornhuskers have started the season strong, winning by at least 23 points in every game to generate their unblemished record. Frank Beamer and the Hokies originally intended to redshirt QB Tyrod Taylor this season, but the offense sputtered under QB Sean Glennon and Taylor has taken a hold of the starting reins. Taylor also struggled last week against North Carolina, only completing 11 passes for 125 yards while throwing two interceptions in the win. Once again, the vaunted Hokie defense had to bail out the offense and did so by holding UNC to just 14 first downs while forcing four turnovers in the win. VTECH is a bankroll killing 1-7-1 ATS in non-conference games since 2006. The Huskers have started the season strong and will look to keep it going against the Hokies. Since taking over for Sam Keller with a few games to go last year, QB Joe Ganz has dazzled when given the opportunity as the Huskers field general. In Big Reds last game against New Mexico State, Ganz threw for 227 total yards and two touchdowns in a very efficient performance. RB Marlon Lucky has again been a workhorse on the ground, carrying the ball 15 times for 103 yards and two touchdowns in that win over the Aggies. With one more ATS win this season, the Huskers will have already matched their college football gambling win total from 2007. Look for them to get it in this prime time affair!!! – Courtesy of Mike Rose