2009 AFC Championship Game Betting Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
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Despite beating the Baltimore Ravens twice in the regular season by a total of just seven points, the Pittsburgh Steelers have opened as 6-point home favorites for Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.

Both of those early meetings were about as close as they could be, with the Steelers defeating the Ravens 23-20 in overtime in Pittsburgh in Week 4 and then 13-9 in Baltimore in Week 15 after a controversial 4-yard touchdown catch by Santonio Holmes with under a minute remaining. That win clinched the AFC North and a first-round bye for the Steelers.

“They don’t like us, we don’t like them,” Steelers nose tackle Casey Hampton told the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. “Everybody knows that.”

I’m sure you can do the math, but in two games the Ravens and Steelers combined for 65 points. The NFC finalist Eagles and Cardinals, on the other hand, combined for 68 points in their lone regular-season meeting.

Pittsburgh’s 35-24 win over the Chargers ended a streak of five consecutive playoff games won by the road team. There were only three other postseasons in which as many as five visiting teams posted victories: six following the 2005 season, and five in 1992 and 2007.

The Steelers held the Chargers to 15 rushing yards, the lowest total in an NFL playoff game since January 1999. Pittsburgh is 23-3 when Willie Parker runs for 100 yards (Parker rushed for 146 yards against San Diego, the third highest total in Steelers’ postseason history, and two touchdowns), while Baltimore hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in more than two-plus seasons.

Pittsburgh is in the AFC title game for the seventh time since the 1994 season. But it is 1-4 in the previous five at home. The Steelers lost there during the 1994, 1997, 2001 and 2004 seasons, the two most recent times to New England. The Steelers have been first- or second-seeded seven times since 1992, and they failed to win the Super Bowl the previous six times.

Baltimore has been winning almost in spite of a passing game. Joe Flacco has totaled just 296 yards and one touchdown pass in wins at Miami and Tennessee, but he hasn’t turned the ball over. The Ravens had only 50 yards rushing and 211 yards of total offense against the Titans, who had 391 yards of offense but three turnovers. Baltimore certainly was helped when Titans running back Chris Johnson, the only rookie in the Pro Bowl, left the game with an injury in the second quarter and didn’t return.

Pittsburgh’s defense ranks No. 1 overall in the league, while Baltimore’s is No. 2. They are also 1-2 against the run. The two teams have met once before in the playoffs, a 27-10 Steeler win in the divisional round of the 2001 season.

The Las Vegas Hilton posted Pittsburgh as the new Super Bowl favorite at 8-5 odds, followed by Philadelphia (11-5), Baltimore (3-1) and Arizona (5-1). The Hilton posted the AFC as a 3-point favorite over the NFC in Super Bowl XLIII on Feb. 1 at Tampa.

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