While we have a lot of respect for the Big 12, we feel that the 26-9 San Diego State Aztecs have been underrated all year, and they get the call here over the 23-14 Baylor Bears.
Remember that this contest is in Madison Square Garden, and the key here is how these teams have performed on the road. The Aztecs are a respectable 5-5 straight up on the road, although they have been slightly outscored in those games by a scant average of -1.3 points. Remember also that they dismantled another Big 12 team in this tournament in Kansas State 70-52, and San Diego State is a very bettor-friendly 18-12-1, 60.0 percent against the spread this year.
Baylor may come out of the tough conference, but they are just 4-8 SU on the road while getting outscored by -4.9 points per game. They have also not looked as impressive as San Diego State in their three NIT wins so far, with two of their three wins so far being by exactly two points. It is also worth noting that Baylor is actually ranked behind the Aztecs in the Pomeroy Ratings, as San Diego State is ranked 29 and the Bears rank 35.
We look for those ratings to come to fruition tonight with a San Diego State victory.
CBB Free Pick: San Diego State +1 (-110)