2010 Papa Johns Bowl: UConn vs. South Carolina
Free Pick: Connecticut +3.5 (-110 odds)
Sat January 2nd 2010 2:00p
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The Connecticut Huskies and South Carolina Gamecocks were both 7-5 straight up this season, but Connecticut was one of the best bets in the country all year going 10-2 against the spread, and we look for this underrated team to pull the upset here.

These teams seemed to be going in opposite directions at the end of the year, and we feel that both that positive and negative momentum will be reflected in this contest. The Huskies were forced to mourn the loss of cornerback Jasper Howard in mid-October, and that took an emotional toll on them for a while. However, they closed out the season on a three-game winning streak, using the death of Howard as a motivational force.

As for South Carolina, they started the season hot but then struggled down the stretch, going just 2-4 down the stretch with one of those wins being just 14-10 vs. a weak Vanderbilt team and the other win coming out of conference vs. Clemson. Yes, losing to Florida is acceptable, but the Gamecocks were also blown out 31-13 by Tennessee during the stretch, the same Tennessee team that was blown out of its bowl game.

Now we are normally avid supporters of the SEC in bowls, but the mid-level teams in that normally strong conference have underperformed this bowl season, with LSU and Kentucky joining Tennessee in defeat. We saw that the offensive struggles LSU has all year continued in their bowl yesterday, and we feel the same will be true of the Cocks here, whose suspect offense always makes them a dicey proposition when laying more than a field goal.

Meanwhile, Connecticut does have the running game to push the South Carolina defense around a bit, and that should turn out to be the key to this contest. The Huskies averaged 172.8 rushing yards per game this year, as Jordan Todman rushed for over 1100 yards and 14 touchdowns and Andre Dixon added over 900 yards and 13 scores. That excellent tandem can have success vs. a Gamecocks run defense that allowed an ordinary 4.1 yards per carry away from home.

Finally, even if Connecticut does not win outright, the hook attached to the field goal makes this spread worth taking, as if South Carolina does win, we do not think it will be by more than three points.

CFB Free Pick: Connecticut +3.5 (-110)

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