5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Washington set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win this game.They are coming off a poor game and it is quite apparent that Oswalt was just feeling his way through the game and perhaps had some fatigue issues related to the the sudden travel to Washington and all of the media interviews he had to endure. That one start will not dictate whether that trade was a success or not and we are certain that once Oswalt gets accustomed to his teammates and especially his catcher Ruiz everything will fall into place. Blanton has been steadily improving, but his ERA still remains high. Washington has not done well against these types of starters as they are just 4-16 (-12.4 Units) against the money line versus a NL starting pitcher whose ERA is 5.70 or worse over the last 2 seasons. Phils are a solid 25-9 (+14.3 Units) against the money line on the road with a money line of -100 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. Nats are also 6-22 (-13.9 Units) against the money line after allowing 2 runs or less this season; 0-12 (-12.2 Units) against the money line after a win by 4 runs or more this season. Phils roll.
This is a great value spot for the Pirates. Pittsburgh is having yet another horrible season as it is a miserable 30 games under .500 including 27 games under .500 on the road. The Pirates need to be played in spots and this is one of those spots as they are catching a great number. They were handcuffed by Chris Carpenter last night in a tough one-run loss but the offense gets it going again tonight.
The Cardinals are doing nothing overly spectacular as they are 3-5 over their last eight games but they are playing excellent at home and that is driving this number for the most part. On the contrarian side, the pitching matchup favors neither team and that basically turns this game into a toss up and at the crazy odds, St. Louis cannot be played.
Jeff Suppan has been safe to play against this season as his teams are 3-6 in his nine starts including the Cardinals going 2-5 in his seven starts since coming over from Milwaukee. He has a 6.18 ERA overall and is 0-6 so nothing has been going right. He did post a quality outing in his last home start but gave it right back next time out against the Cubs and I see more of that taking place here.
Suppan had a 5.40 ERA against the Pirates in three starts last season.
The Pirates Daniel McCutchen has been recalled from Class AAA Indianapolis to start Saturday and they are hoping for better results than his first time up. He has a horrendous 8.58 ERA in six starts and one relief appearance but some time down in the Minors has done some good. He went 2-6 with a 3.62 ERA in his last nine Triple-A starts so the production is definitely there.
Pittsburgh also falls into a solid underdog situation. Play against National League favorites with a money line of -110 or higher with a starting pitcher whose ERA is between 5.20 and 5.70 on the season after two straight games where the bullpen gave up no earned runs. This situation is 33-19 (63.5 percent) over the last five seasons and it is even stronger than that based on the underdog aspect. 3* Pittsburgh Pirates
The Florida Marlins have dominated the Padres on the West Coast going 6-1 their last seven trips to San Diego. The Marlins will send Ricky Nolasco to the bump knowing he is 8-2 on the highway this season with an ERA of 3.92 over that span. Ricky Nolasco is 11-4 in road games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 54 to 62 percent the last 3 seasons, 12-5 in road games versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game the last 2 seasons, 13-2 in road games versus teams averaging 0.9 or less homeruns per game the last 3 seasons, 9-1 in road games against NL West opponents the last 3 seasons and 8-0 in road games versus teams averaging 0.9 or less homeruns per game in the second half of the season the last 3 seasons. The Padres will send Kevin Correia to the hill with his 4-4 home record and ERA of 4.52 on the season. We will back the visitor here as a small underdog as the Marlins ride Nolasco to another victory on the West Coast on Saturday.
It has been a rough few starts for Kansas City’s Zack Greinke as he makes his fourth straight start at home against the Orioles on Saturday night. His last time out, he gave up eight runs and eight hits in four innings of work against the Twins. Overall, he’s 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA in his last three starts giving up 15 runs and 18 hits in his last 18 innings pitched. The righty took a no-decision against the Orioles back in May as Nick Markakis (4-13), Julio Lugo (5-12), Brian Roberts (5-10), Adam Jones (3-8), and Luke Scott (2-4) all hit Greinke well. Greinke is backed by a Kansas City bullpen that has an ERA close to 5.00 at home.
Baltimore’s Brad Bergesen continues to make starts despite being pretty bad this season. The righty is 3-9 with a 7.12 ERA in 16 starts. He’s only averaging 5.3 innings per outing meaning a Baltimore bullpen that is already taxed should be involved tonight. The righty has given up 17 runs and 28 hits in his last 16.3 innings pitched. Bergesen lost to the Royals in Baltimore back in May after giving up four runs and 10 hits in 6.7 innings of work. Yuniesky Betancourt (3-9), Billy Butler (3-8), Jose Guillen (1-3), Chris Getz (1-3), and Alex Gordon (1-1) have good numbers against the Orioles starter. The Royals have gone Over the total in six straight games mostly due to bad pitching. The Orioles bullpen has an ERA near 4.40 on the road which has helped them go Over the total in five of their last six games. We expect another high-scoring game between the Orioles and Royals tonight.
At 7:10 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Seattle Mariners. The Twins are on quite a roll right now. The team that is battling with the White Sox for first place in the AL Central has now won six games in a row, and 11 out of their last 14. Perhaps the most impressive thing about this streak is that they have done it all without the services of arguably their best offensive player, as first baseman Justin Morneau has been out since before the All Star break with a concussion and still has no target date for a return. The Twins also made sure they didn’t sit on their hands at the trade deadline as they made a deal for closer Matt Capps from the Nationals, which is huge because it allows big Jon Rauch to return to his natural job as a setup man. Rauch and Capps could form one of the most deadly 8th-9th inning combinations in baseball. Good thing the Twins acted, because late Friday the White Sox acquired starter Edwin Jackson from the Diamondbacks, shoring up their rotation for the latter part of the season. All you need to know about Felix Hernandez’s season in Seattle is found in his ERA and record. How many starters out there can put up an ERA of 2.86 while only going 7-7 through their first 22 starts? The lack of run support has got to be driving King Felix through the roof, and with the trade of Cliff Lee (and Erik Bedard probably out for the season) Hernandez will undoubtedly go the rest of the way as the team’s undisputed ace. King Felix is no doubt lamenting the fact that it was Lee, and not himself, that got traded to a contender. Take the Twins. As always, good luck…Al McMordie.
I don’t normally recommend playing favorites of this size, however for a number of different reasons I’m expecting the Red Sox to blowout the Tigers in this situation:
Max Scherzer heads to the hill for the home side; Scherzer is coming off a loss; he’s 7-8 on the year with a 4.45 ERA.
He’s 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA in his career against the Red Sox.
And not only is Detroit just 1-4 its last five overall, its also just 1-10 its last 11 on the road.
In the other dugout: Daisuke Matsuzaka gets the nod for the home side; Matsuzaka is coming off a no decision; keep in mind though that he’s pitched at least six innings in three straight starts and has a 1.93 ERA over that time.
He’s 7-3 on the year with a 4.09 ERA.
Keep in mind as well that Boston is 16-8 its last 24 at home and 11-5 its last 16 vs. Detroit.
Bottom line: Boston will be particularly hungry here after yesterday’s 6-5 loss and trailing the Rays by 6 1/2 for the Wild Card spot.
Matsuzaka is 4-1 with a 2.64 ERA in five career starts vs. the Tigers.
When taking all of the above into account, you may want to consider a second look at BOSTON today.
On Friday the free MLB play is on the LA. Angels. Game 980 at 10:05 eastern. Texas fits a negative system which has cashed 14 of 19 times playing against road teams from -110 to +110 off a home favored win, vs an opponent off a home loss. The Rangers are scoring just under 3 runs per game over the past week and they have lost 2 of 3 times here this season. LA has E. Santana on the mound as they try to cut in to the Rangers division lead. Santana has allowed just 2 runs over his last 2 outings vs Texas. Santana should improve on his 1.57 era over his last 3 starts and lead the Angles to a game one win. On Friday I ahve the 2010 MLB Game of the year rated at 7 units. The game is backed with 2 high end systems one of which is perfect. The other which wins by 4 runs per game. Our team has all the edges and a pitcher who will be ready to dominate. The other game is a 96% dominator system side with 3 big Power angles. MLB is 34 games over .500. For the free play take the LA. Angels. RV
I had the Mets and the Royals yesterday. The Mets won easily (4-0) but the Royals lost a tough one, falling 6-5 in the 11th inning. I feel that they’ve got a strong shot at bouncing back with a victory here though.
Even with yesterday’s result, the Royals’ home record (20-29) is far better than Baltimore’s 14-37 mark on the road.
Sean O’Sullivan gets the call for KC. The Royals picked him up from the Angels on July 22. He lost his first start as a Royal. However, that was at Yankee Stadium. So, he wasn’t exactly expected to win, particularly as he was facing them for the second time in less than a week. Today’s opponent isn’t nearly so intimidating.
Note that Baltimore averages only 3.5 runs per game on the road, hitting a mere .249.
O’Sullivan figures to get some run support here. Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta didn’t make it past the fourth inning in his last start and has now given up five runs in back to back outings.
Note that the Royals average 4.8 runs per game at home, hitting a healthy .288 here. They’ve been a better team than the Orioles on the season and I expect them to show it here. Consider KC.
Below are MLB baseball picks for July 30th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free MLB baseball predictions on a daily basis or premium picks from our MLB baseball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks +122 (Rocky Sheridan)
Arizona has dominated this series winning 7 of their last 8 meetings. The last time these 2 pitchers faced off against each other, Pelrey was sent to the showers after an inning and a third giving up 6 earned off 7 hits and 2 walks. Pelfrey has also been struggling of last with a 10.45 ERA and a staggering 3.10 WHIP. Kennedy may keep things interesting but I like a small play on the D-Backs here to bounce back from their 6 game skid.
Pick: New York Yankees -104 (Jimmy Boyd)
While Davis has pitched better in recent starts, it can’t be overlooked that those starts came against Cleveland twice and Baltimore once. The Yankees have the edge on the mound with Hughes. They have won 14 of his 18 starts this season, and he is a fantastic 5-1 with an ERA of only 2.36 on the road this year. Compare that to Davis, who is 4-6 with an ERA of 4.22 at home. It is also worth noting that the Rays are only 1-5 in Davis’ last 6 starts vs. a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 6-0 in Hughes’ last 6 road starts vs. a team with a winning record and 5-0 in his last 5 starts vs. the American League East. The Yanks have taken 2 of 3 in Tampa this season, and they are 26-18 against the Rays over the last 3 seasons. Take the Yankees.
Pick: Houston Astros +100 (Rocky Atkinson)
Milwaukee is 2-8 this year after allowing 10 runs or more. Houston has won 3 of their last 4 games overall. Milwaukee bullpen has a 5.10 ERA overall this year. Manny Parra is 3-7 with a 5.33 ERA overall this year, 2-4 with a 6.00 ERA in all starts, 1-2 with a 6.84 ERA on the road and 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA his last 3 starts. JA Happ is 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA overall this year, 2.61 ERA at home this season and 1-0 with a 1.76 ERA his last 3 starts. Parra has a 5.18 ERA overall vs Houston since 1997 while Happ is 1-0 with a 3.17 ERA overall vs Milwaukee since 1997. We’ll recommend a small play on Houston tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Two teams that have been hitting the ball very well collide tonight in a hot and muggy Chicago. That usually spells a bunch of scoring. Even better two pitchers that don’t have a ton of starts this season equals even more runs. Last week these teams squared off going over in two of three games and the other game had a decent total of 6 runs. Hudson goes for the CHW and he has not been very good and we expect him to only go 5 innings and give up his usuall 4 runs. On the other side we have Anderson for the A’s and he is coming off another DL stint. He will not go more than 100 pitches and with this hot hitting CHW lineup might not get out of the 4th inning. Love this over as the CHW have gone over total in 6 straight and OAK has scored an average over 5 runs in last 6 games. Good luck all!