Below are MLB baseball picks for July 28th 2010 from Touthouse.com handicappers. If you are looking for free MLB baseball predictions on a daily basis or premium picks from our MLB baseball betting experts visit Touthouse.com each day.
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays-RL (The Prez)
Tonight’s AL contest between the Tigers and Rays is one of those rare occasions where we support a home favorite on the run-line, this due to several factors that heavily favor the Florida squad. Eddie Bonine takes the pill to the hill, his first start of the season because Sunday’s doubleheader against Toronto forced the coaching staff to alter the team’s rotation. The right-hander has made 31 relief appearances in 2010 and is 3-2 with a 4.38 ERA in nine career starts. The 28-year-old had trouble getting Triple-A hitters out, 4.43 ERA and has an extremely mediocre skill set, 4.4 K/9 and a 1.4 BB/9. He has an ERA of 4.52 in seven minor league seasons. His K/9 at Triple-A was a low 4.5 and. his K/BB ratio in his all of his major league starts is 9/6. Jeff Niemann will try to send the Tigers to their ninth consecutive road defeat, this against a lineup that is missing three key pieces to their offensive success (Guillen, Ordonez and Inge). Niemann has received two runs or more from his offense in 15 starts this season. He is 8-0 in those outings – all of which have resulted in Tampa Bay victories. Backing home favorites (Tampa Bay) on the run-line starting a pitcher with a WHIP of 1.300 or better against a team (Detroit) that strikes out seven or more times per game, this when the oddsmakers open the money line at -170 or larger, has cashed at 170-72 (70%) clip over the last five MLB campaigns with the average margin of victory of nearly three runs.
Pick: Texas Rangers -149 (Big Al McMordie)
At 8:05 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Oakland Athletics. The arrival of lefthander Cliff Lee obviously helps a lot of players on the Texas Rangers club, but perhaps none moreso than righthanded starter Colby Lewis. Lewis – who had been in Japan for two years prior to returning to the Rangers in 2010 – along with young Tommy Hunter had become the de-facto aces of this staff with the trade of Kevin Millwood and the complete meltdown of Scott Feldman, so bringing in a guy like a Cy Young Award-winning veteran can’t help but take an enormous amount of pressure off of both Lewis and Hunter. This will be Lewis’ third start since the club acquired Lee for first baseman Justin Smoak and he continues to be a strikeout machine, fanning 117 – while issuing just 41 walks – in over 122 innings this season. He’s done his best work by far at home in Arlington, where he’s lost just one start, with five wins while registering a very strong 3.40 ERA. He should be extra-pumped tonight to get his first win of the season against the A’s, who oddly he was not able to beat when he threw back-to-back quality starts against them in early May. He may also want to show folks that it was he, and not A’s starter Trevor Cahill, who was worthy of a spot on the 2010 AL All Star Roster. Texas is 11-3 in Lewis’ last 14 home starts. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck…Al McMordie.
Pick: Athletics vs. Rangers Under 8.5 Runs (Steve Merril)
The Rangers are winning with good pitching as of late; they’ve gone Under the total in 9 of their last 12 games. They continue their series with the A’s on Wednesday night as Colby Lewis gets the start for Texas. He’s 9-6 with a 3.52 ERA and 12 Unders in his 19 starts this season. The righty is 5-1 with a 3.40 ERA in eight outings at home. In two starts against Oakland this season, Lewis has given up six runs and 11 hits in 13 innings of work. Cliff Pennington (1-7), Adam Rosales (1-6), Daric Barton (1-5), Rajai Davis (0-5), and Landon Powell (0-4) all struggle with Lewis. Oakland is averaging 4.1 runs per game away from home. Lewis is backed by a Texas bullpen that has an ERA below 3.50 as a unit at home. Trevor Cahill has been outstanding for Oakland. He’s 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA and 11 Unders in his 17 starts this season. The righty has given up just nine runs and 14 hits in his last 20.7 innings of work. Ironically, Cahill has opposed Lewis twice already this season. In those two outings, he has given up only three runs and nine hits in 10.7 innings of work. David Murphy (4-16), Elvis Andrus (3-13), Ian Kinsler (1-11), Vlad Guerrero (2-10), Julio Borbon (2-10), Josh Hamilton (2-9), Nelson Cruz (0-7), Bengie Molina (0-6), and Taylor Teagarden (0-4) all have poor numbers against Cahill. Texas has scored just 16 runs in their last six games. These two teams have gone Under the total in 13 of their last 20 games in Texas, and we expect another low-scoring game between the A’s and Rangers tonight.
Pick: New York Yankees -150 (Nick Parsons)
We’re coming off a very easy “free play” winner with the Twins last night, and we’ll look to keep the momentum rolling as the New York Yankees continue their road trip against the Cleveland Indians. Coming off a lack-lustre 4-1 loss last night, I believe the Yanks will do just enough in tonight’s contest to earn AJ Burnett back-to-back victories: Burnett is coming back after injury and was effective in five innings of work on Friday against Kansas City before his start was cut short due to rain; he gave up just four hits with one walk with three K’s and had a 4-0 lead when he exited. I believe that Burnett, who is 8-8 on the year with a 4.77 ERA, will have another strong outing in this favorable matchup; also keep in mind that the Yanks are 41-21 (+8.8 units) vs. right-handed starters and 29-19 (+4 units) on the road this season. In the other dugout: Fausto Carmona heads to the hill for the home side; Carmona is coming off a victory over the Rays on Friday night, but I expect him to stumble here. There aren’t many negative things that can be said about Carmona; he’s having a bounce back season after stinking it up last year and has won his last three starts. He’s 10-7 so far, with a respectable 3.51 ERA; however, keep in mind that he’s already 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA vs. New York this season; also remember that the Indians are 29-40 (-3.5 units) against right-handed starters; also just 25-41 (-4.9 units) when playing against a team with a winning record. Bottom line: When taking all of the above factors into consideration, you may want to consider a second look at the YANKEES in this situation.
Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers +102 (Matt Fargo)
We won with the Dodgers in this spot last night and we will come right back with them again tonight. They got the victory last night behind another great pitching performance and that moved them to within five games of San Diego in the National League West. As mentioned yesterday, this series is huge for Los Angeles and its pitching remains the key. The Dodgers have shut out the opposition in four of the last six games and they want to continue that trend. The loss put San Diego 10 games over .500 at home which is still extremely solid but the recent string of wins have come against teams with losing records as it is now 2-5 over its last seven home games against teams with a wining record. It is also 3-7 in its last 10 games overall against winning teams. The offense has been up and down and the season batting average of .251 is sixth worst in all of baseball. As mentioned, the Dodgers pitching has been outstanding of late and I once again see it continuing tonight. Hiroki Kuroda has been solid all season long with a 3.48 ERA and after a rough ending to the first half, he has picked it up once again in his starts after the All-Star break. He has allowed just one run in two starts covering 14 innings to go along with a 13:2 K:BB ratio. He has a 3.68 ERA in his last four starts against the Padres, three of which resulted in Dodgers victories. San Diego counters with Clayton Richard, who is also having a great season but he looks to be fading. Richard came into July with a 2.74 ERA, but he’s 1-1 with a 7.13 ERA in four starts this month and even though his last was the best, he is clearly not the same right now. The Dodgers fall into a great contrarian run as well as they are 25-8 in their last 33 games after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span. They are also 22-8 in their last 30 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game. As for the pitchers, Los Angeles is 18-6 in Kuroda’s last 24 starts following a quality outing in his last game while San Diego is 1-5 in Richard’s last six starts following a quality outing in his last game. 3* Los Angeles Dodgers
Pick: New York Mets -130 (Jack Jones)
Johan Santana has owned teams in the month of July. The lefty is now 3-0 with a 0.71 ERA this month and I expect another superb start out of Santana tonight against the Cardinals. Santana has pitched 18 consecutive scoreless innings at Citi Field, and for the season he’s 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 home starts. Throw in the fact that the lefty is 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 1.000 WHIP in 4 career starts vs. St. Louis, and you can see why the Mets are certainly worth of a free play Wednesday. It has been like night and day home and away for New York. The Mets are 51-49 this season, but they have one of the best home records in the league at 31-16. At Citi Field they are scoring 4.6 RPG and allowing 3.0 RPG this season for an average win of 1.6 RPG. That’s some impressive stuff. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are just 21-29 on the road, scoring 4.0 RPG and allowing home teams to hit .275 while scoring 4.2 RPG. New York is a perfect 8-0 in home games after batting .240 or worse over a 15 game span this season. The Cardinals are 1-10 in their last 11 games as a road underdog of +110 to +150 and 0-7 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600. THe Mets are 9-1 in their last 10 home games vs. a left-handed starter. Take New York Wednesday.
Pick: Marlins vs. Giants Under 8 Runs (Rob Vinciletti)
On Wednesday the free MLB Play is on the under in the Florida at San Francisco game. Rotation numbers 957/58 at 8:05 eastern. This game fits a nice system that plays to the under for certain home favorites with a total of 8 or less, if they are off a home dog win, scored 5 or more runs and are taking on an opponent off a road favored loss and scored 4 or less runs. The Marlins are 2-14 to the under as a road dog in this range and only average 3.9 rpg vs left handers this year. The Giants have gone under in 11 of 16 as a home favorite in this range. Marlins Sanabia has an overall 2.11 era this year, whle J. Sanchez has a fine 3.00 home era this season. The Giants also have one of the best home bullpen era/s in the league at 2.19. Look for this game to be low scoring. Take the under tonight. On Wednesday I have a 23-1 MLB Power system blowout and a Non Divisional total of the week backed with a Huge Totals system and several solid under angles. We cashed our top play again on Tuesday. More damage comimg tonight. For the free play take the under in the Marlins at Giants game. RV
Pick Washington Nationals +130 (John Ryan)
5* graded play on Washington as they host Atlanta set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a significant probability that Washington will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 134-95 making 57.7 units since 1997. The average play has been a +114 dog. Play against NL road teams with a money line of -100 to -150 with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.00 or better on the season and with a team on base percentage of .340 or better on the season. Braves are now under immense pressure from the 2-time defending NL Champion Phillies and it is beginning to show on the field. Braves now face a daunting task as they are an imperfect 0-9 (-9.5 Units) against the money line in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose throws more than 6.5 innings per start this season; 11-22 (-19.7 Units) against the money line off a loss to a division rival as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.Washington is a solid 17-4 (+15.1 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR’s/game in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons. Hernandez is a solid 7-0 (+7.4 Units) against the money line in home games versus poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR’s/game this season. Riggelman is a solid 11-2 (+9.7 Units) against the money line in home games with a hot bullpen whose WHIP is under 1.250 the last 15 games. Hernandez has averaged 6.6 IP per start with an impressive 3.12 ERA. Over his last 3 starts he is equally strong posting a 3.15 ERA and a 1.000 WHIP. He has pitched a minimum of 6 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts and the bullpen is strong. Take Washington.
Pick: Toronto Blue Jays -140 (Jeff Alexander)
The Blue Jays have owned the Orioles. They have outscored Baltimore 65-23 while winning all 11 meetings this season. Baltimore has especially struggled north of the border, where it has lost 19 of its last 21 at Rogers Centre. Baltimore’s chances aren’t looking very good with Guthrie on the mound tonight. He hasn’t won a road start since May 8, and he has lost his last 3 starts in Toronto. The Blue Jays plan to give Brad Mills just his third MLB start tonight. He has been solid for Triple-A Las Vegas this season, and should benefit from plenty of run support this evening. Plus, I like his chances against a Baltimore lineup only averaging 3.5 runs per game on the road. Compare that to the 5.1 runs per game Toronto is scoring at home. Take the Jays.
Pick: Chicago Cubs -137 (Freddy Wills)
Randy Wells has been on fire and has a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts overall. He’ll go up against Bud Norris who has a 1.42 WHIP and a 6.38 ERA in his last 3 overall starts. Wells has struggled on the road with a 2-4 record and 4.61 ERA, but has pitched much better as of late and will go for a rebound against the Astros as he gave up 6 ER in his only start against them earlier this year. In Well defense that start came when he was struggling. He’s got a good history against the Astros which has 20.1 IP in three carer starts in 2009 giving up 0 ER. Cubs never faced Norris, but the 0-4 7.13 ERA and team home record of 1-6 when he starts is nothing to be scared of. Houston just 4.21 runs per 9 over last 10 games while the Cubs come in at .305 average and 5.70 runs per 9.