WEEK 5 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS – OCTOBER 2ND 2010
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We had our second straight nice 3-1 week here last Saturday, as Virginia Tech, Nevada and Middle Tennessee State all covered easily. The only downer was top-ranked Alabama, which rallied late to avoid the upset but failed to the cover the 7-point spread. Let’s try and do it again with our college football week 5 picks.

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Connecticut -7.5 over Vanderbilt: This is a brutal matchup for Vanderbilt, both physically and emotionally. Physically, Connecticut is one of the best rushing teams in the country, as they are averaging 212.8 rushing yards per game on a bloated 5.7 yards per carry. That makes for a mismatch vs. a Vanderbilt rushing defense that is allowing a very un-SEC like 206.0 rushing yards per contest. Emotionally, the Commodores are coming off of a road upset of Mississippi as 11½ point underdogs, and they cannot be too enthused about playing a Big East team on the road. This game means more to a Connecticut team that wants to improve the Big East’s image.

Texas/Oklahoma ‘over’ 45: Oklahoma is 4-0 while averaging 34.0 points per game, but their defense has been uncharacteristically horrible, and that unit is bound to cost them a game soon. The Sooners are surrendering 421.2 yards per game, and they have done so vs. a weak schedule that has included Cincinnati, Utah State and Air Force. Texas was probably looking ahead to this game while they were committing five turnovers in their shocking loss to UCLA. They have outgained all four of their opponents, and if they do so again here, it would basically ensure a rather safe ‘over’.

Virginia Tech -4 over NC State: We thought that Virginia Tech would dominate once ACC play began, and we cashed a nice ticket on them last week as they beat Boston College 19-0. Sure, it was an uneven performance offensively, but the defense was sensational and will probably continue to be so the rest of the year. The Hokies limited BC to just 2.5 yards per rush and 5.6 yards per pass attempt. NC State is 4-0 and averaging 37.8 points per game. There is a reason the Wolfpack are home underdogs though, as they will not have their usual success vs. probably the best defense they will see all year, and the NC State defense allowed 247 rushing yards last week.

Florida +7½ over Alabama: One train of thought is that Alabama will be breathing fire after their escape last week, and they may very well be, but Florida is simply too good of a football team to be getting more than a touchdown from any team in the country. The Gators are averaging 37.3 points and 354.5 yards per game on offense, but the real story is the defense that might be better than the one they had when they won the 2008 National Championship. They are allowing only 295.5 yards per game on 3.4 yards per rush and 5.7 yards per pass attempt.

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WEEK 4 NFL FOOTBALL PICKS – OCTOBER 3RD 2010
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We were a rather unfortunate 2-2 in the NFL last week, as Tennessee won outright and the Eagles crushed the Jaguars as we expected. We probably should have been 3-1 though, as we lost the ‘under’ in the Chargers vs. Seahawks game when Leon Washington returned two kicks for touchdowns. We had no such excuse for our other loser, as the Steelers crushed our Bucs. Here are four more NFL picks for Week 4.

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San Francisco 49ers +6½ over Atlanta Falcons: The 49ers were in a dreadful scheduling spot last week, but now the shoe is on the other foot. The bad loss by San Francisco last week was not surprising considering they were playing a non-conference game following an emotional Monday night effort against the Saints. Now, it is the Falcons that played the Saints last week, and the fact that they pulled off the upset triggers a nice angle, as teams that upset the Super Bowl Champions are 16-24 ATS the following week for a 60.0 percent fade.

Tennessee Titans -6½ over Denver Broncos: The Titans continue to be underappreciated and undervalued, but that is just fine with us! The Broncos have a weak rushing defense, and they must now contend with possibly the best running back in football in Chris Johnson and a dual threat quarterback in Vince Young. On the other side of the ball, the lethal Tennessee pass rush will put a lot more pressure on Kyle Orton than the Colts did, so don’t look for another 400-yard passing performance. If that is not bad enough, the Broncos were excited about playing the Colts and are now in a letdown spot.

St. Louis Rams +1 over Seattle Seahawks: So, the Seahawks win a game by seven points where they have a returner run back two kicks for touchdowns, and they are now favored on the road? Sure, Seattle is improved under Pete Carroll, but the Rams look to be even more improved. Sam Bradford is the real deal and he has shown tremendous poise for a rookie. Granted, Steven Jackson is injured and is doubtful, but St, Louis did not miss a beat with Kenneth Darby running the ball last week. On the other side of the ball, the Rams will have a very good defense for years to come the way Chris Long, James Laurinaitis and Ronald Bartell are playing right now.

Washington Redskins +6 over Philadelphia Eagles: Donovan McNabb returns to Philadelphia, and he was probably already thinking about passing against his old mates during his lackluster outing at St. Louis. He obviously knows the Eagles’ defense very well, and truth be told, the Philly secondary is not very talented, so look for McNabb to play more like he did in his great game vs. Houston two weeks ago than he did last week. Also, the emergence of running back Ryan Torain last week means that Clinton Portis could sit out a few more series and that should make the entre running game better.

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UNDERDOG FOOTBALL PICKS FOR OCTOBER 2ND-3RD 2010
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We achieved perfection with our four rabid dogs last week, as Army, the Dallas Cowboys and the St. Louis Rams all pulled off outright upsets and West Virginia covered the overlay number vs. LSU! We can’t promise perfection again, but we will certainly try with four more underdog plays this week again with two apiece in CFB and NFL.

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Navy +10 over Air Force: These are both option teams that run the ball extremely well, so we simply do not see Air Force pulling away to win by double-digits. Yes, Air Force leads the country with their 394.0 rushing yards per game, but they are fairly easy to defend near the goal line and thus have scored fewer points with each passing game this year, coming off of a season low 20 points at Wyoming last week. Navy is averaging a nice 272.7 rushing yards themselves, and at least they have a quarterback that can throw, as Ricky Dobbs is averaging a terrific 12.2 yards per pass attempt.

Wyoming +4 over Toledo: We do not like the situation that Toledo is in here, as they are now favorites after pulling off three straight road upsets. Furthermore, they have been very fortunate, as their opponents committed 13 turnovers in the three wins. The Rockets offense has not done much of anything, averaging just 260.2 total yards per game on 2.9 yards per rush and 6.4 yards per pass. Wyoming has lost three straight, but the only bad loss was to Boise State, which is understandable. They covered the point spread at Texas and they covered vs. Wyoming last week.

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 over Indianapolis Colts: Sure, it is dangerous to play against the Colts, especially with a team with a bad secondary like the Jaguars. However, 14 of the last 18 meetings between these teams have been decided by eight points or less, mainly because Jacksonville has been able to run the ball well and thus win the Time of Possession battle. This week should be no different, as the Colts are still struggling with the run, allowing a poor 5.0 yards per carry. Look for Maurice Jones-Drew to have a break-out performance, which would also make life easier for David Garrard, who has thrown well vs. Indy in the past.

Chicago Bears +4 over New York Giants: While the short week off of a big divisional win over the Packers is a concern, the fact is that the Chicago defense is just playing too well right now to be getting more than a field goal vs. anyone. Perhaps more important is the fact that the Giants have forgotten how to rush the passer, with only two sacks in the last two games. This should give Bears QB Jay Cutler enough time to have continued success in Mike Martz’s intricate offense. Also look for Matt Forte to get more involved, as he has looked great so far this year but is not getting enough touches.

Touthouse.com is your one stop shop for expert NFL football picks and expert college football picks. Be sure to sign-up for our free football betting newsletter on our homepage for exclusive football picks from our team of professional sports handicappers. These Underdog Football Picks for October 2nd and October 3rd 2010 are courtesy of North Shore Sports

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Pick: New York Jets -5.5 -110 odds
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The Jets at 2-1 have a great opportunity to take over the AFC East here. They took down division rival Patriots and Dolphins the L2 weeks. QB Mark Sanchez is getting better with each game. In his L2 outings, he has passed for 6 TDs and 0 INTs. The Buffalo “D” is horrible, ranked 31st in the NFL and giving up 29 PPG. They can’t get any pressure on opposing QBs (4 sacks TY). On offense, the Bills showed signs of life LW after inserting QB Ryan Fitzpatrick in a losing effort vs. the Patriots. Fitzpatrick still threw 2 INTs due to a lack of protection by his OL. The OL has given up 8 sacks on the season. Now they must face the devastating “Gang Green” defense that has 5 sacks and only gives up 15.7 PPG. New Yorks defensive numbers are going to pile high here. The road team is 5-0 ATS their L5 meetings. The Jets are 6-1 ATS their L7 road games, 7-2 ATS their L9 vs. the AFC, and 9-3 ATS their L12 overall. The Bills are 5-12 ATS their L17 vs. teams with a winning record, 3-11 ATS their L14 at home, and 1-5 ATS their L6 as a ‘dog. Take New York. Thank you.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS
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The 4th Edition of 2010-11 Monday Night Football betting action comes to you on Monday, October 4th when the New England Patriots invade Sun Life Stadium in Miami, FL to battle the AFC East rival Miami Dolphins. These two teams have split the L/4 meetings between each other. Last season saw the Patriots win the first meeting in New England 27-17 as 11-point chalk and the Dolphins take game two in Miami 22-21 as five-point dogs.

Point Spread: Head Coach Tony Sparano’s Dolphins are currently sitting at (+1) with the NFL betting ‘total’ pegged at 46.5; kickoff is set for 8:30 ET.
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New England enters Week 4 after surviving a shoot-out with the Buffalo Bills 38-30 as 14-point chalk. Tom Brady threw for 252 yards and three touchdowns as the ringleader of the 10th ranked offense in the NFL. BenJarvus Green-Ellis led the rushing attack with 98 yards and a TD. TE Aaron Hernandez was Brady’s biggest target hauling in six catches for 65 yards. The ‘D’ recorded two interceptions and one sack while giving up 247 yards passing and 134 yards rushing.

Miami enters this AFC East battle 2-1 and 0-1 in the division after losing to the Jets last week 31-23 as 2.5-point favorites. QB Chad Henne threw for 363 yards with two TD’s and one INT to lead the 18th ranked passing attack. Henne and WR Brandon Marshall should have a field day against the Patriots 25th ranked passing attack in Week 4. Marshall had a huge Week 3 game against the Jets hauling in 10 catches for 166 yards and one TD. The rushing attack wasn’t quite there gaining only 84 yards on the ground. The defense was torched to the tune of 402 total yards of offense.

New England is 4-1-1 ATS in its L/6 Week 4 games. The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their L/8 games when dogged, and 8-2 in their L/10 games against AFC East opposition. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their L/5 meetings, while the underdog is 4-1 ATS in their L/5 meetings. However, the road team has covered five of the L/6 meetings.

Touthouse.com is your one stop shop for 2010 week 4 NFL football picks! Be sure to sign-up for our free football betting newsletter on our homepage for exclusive football picks from our team of professional sports handicappers. This Patriots vs. Dolphins week 4 NFL picks and point spread preview is courtesy of North Shore Sports.

AccuScore – Week 5 College Football Expert Picks
By Zach Rosenfield and Jonathan Lee, AccuScore – Featured on Touthouse.com

Week 5 of the college football campaign brings perhaps the best slate of games thus far this season with 5 games between ranked opponents: Florida vs. Alabama, Stanford vs. Oregon, Texas vs. Oklahoma, Michigan St. vs. Wisconsin, and Penn St. vs. Iowa. Zach and Jon beyond those high profile games though and make their plays for the weekend.

ZACH’S PICKS
Ohio State –17 at Illinois
Right now, the two best teams in college football are Alabama and Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been destroying their competition and looking good in the process. While naysayers will always have their doubts about Terrell Pryor, the likelihood that they will be validated against Illinois is very slim (actually only 7.5%). Ohio State is covering the number in over 60% of simulations which is a great sign being that the computer is 5-1 ATS this season in games involving Ohio State and Illinois.

Texas Tech –7 at Iowa State
One of the biggest questions of the offseason was “who will Texas Tech be?” After Mike Leach’s departure, we were curious to see what Texas Tech would make of their pass happy offense. Now that we are month into the season, we are pleased to see that Tommy Tubberville has done a solid job in keeping things how they were with the Red Raiders offense. On the other side is Iowa State who is still getting mileage from off their fluke win at Nebraska in 2009. I say fluke because the Huskers turned over the ball five times inside the ten yard line. Earlier this season, we successfully picked Kansas State to cover the number against Iowa State and the Wildcats did with offensive efficiency. We also picked Iowa to cover against Iowa State and the same formula worked for the Hawkeyes. AccuScore’s against the spread picks are 5-1 this season in games involving Iowa State and Texas Tech (6-0 straight up) showing that these two teams play to their simulations. Lastly, AccuScore’s ATS spread selection in games when the “away team is favored by 4 to 9.5 points” is 8-3 this year.

Miami –3 at Clemson
As long as Jacory Harris is the quarterback, handicapping the Miami Hurricanes will always be a challenge. Harris and company are flushed with talent, but that same offense is also a very frustrating to watch. In 2009, 12% of Harris’s drop backs resulted in either sacks or interceptions. Three games into the 2010 season, that number has only dropped 0.5% and cost the Hurricanes when they went to Columbus. His 1-to-1 TD:INT ratio stands out to us stat geek and gets factored into our simulations. Harris’s statistical history will makes our projections closer than they should be, so a bet on Miami is a bet that they can limit the mistakes. AccuScore is 3-1 ATS this season in games where Miami and Clemson are involved. Showing they can win on the road and throw interceptions, the computer likes Miami to cover the number at Clemson meaning the eye test and computer test match up perfectly.

JONATHAN’S PICKS
Navy +10 at Air Force
Since 2003, a game in this series has been decided by more than 7 points only once (2007 by 11). And even more interestingly, Navy is riding a seven game winning streak in this series between the two service academies. Both teams have, as usual, terrific rushing attacks while neither is particularly good at stopping the run. Since both teams run the option, the schemes are not unfamiliar to their defenses and scores in the recent past have been relatively low. Since both teams will run the ball almost exclusively, the clock tends to move in this game with fewer big plays and fewer drives. That tends to keep the score close. Ten points is simply too many to give to Navy even though Air Force looks to be one of the better MWC teams this season. In fact, the Midshipmen are projected to cover 58.2 percent of the time by AccuScore.

Marshall vs. Southern Miss UNDER 51.5 Points
This Under pick has the highest simulation percentage for any totals pick this week at 64.3 percent. Combined these two teams average just 42.75 points with Marshall statistically having a poor defense, and a Southern Miss having a strong one. Southern Miss should have a more explosive offense with Larry Fedora’s spread so one would expect most of the offense to come from the Golden Eagles. AccuScore has gone a combined 7-0 picking totals in games involving these two teams this season.

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Baseball Pick: Baltimore Orioles -130 (Big Al McMordie) – September 30th 2010
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Detroit Tigers. There are several reasons for the Orioles to look back fondly on the second half of the 2010 season, and to be looking forward to 2011. They have a new Manager in Buck Showalter, several talented rookies or second-year players, and more talent in the minors than the average franchise. Since Showalter took over at the beginning of August, the Orioles are 30-22 and they tied the season series against their hated rivals, the Boston Red Sox, at nine games apiece. Tonight, Baltimore’s righthanded ace of the second half, Jeremy Guthrie will take the mound (Brian Matusz has earned the status of lefthanded ace). After going 3-10 with a 4.77 ERA prior to the All-Star break, Guthrie is now 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA since, and he’s 3-1 in his last five starts for this team while throwing over 200 innings for the second straight season. In what could be his final start in a Tiger uniform, righthanded veteran Jeremy Bonderman will take the mound tonight for his 29th start and Bonderman will be a free agent after the season and it’s quite possible that he will part ways with the only MLB team he’s ever played for. It likely could be a rocky final start for Bonderman as he is 2-3 with a 6.92 ERA in five career outings against the O’s covering just 27 innings. Take Baltimore. As always, good luck…Al McMordie. And don’t miss my 38-0 ATS **10** Football Winner today, or my **10** MLB Pennant Chase Total of the Month, as we’re 39-18 our last 57 plays rated **10**.

Baseball Pick: Pirates vs. Marlins Over 8.5 (Steve Merril) – September 30th 2010
Florida returns home for their final series in Miami this season when they host the Pirates on Thursday night. The Marlins will send Chris Volstad to the mound. He’s 11-9 with a 4.63 ERA in 29 starts for the Marlins. The righty is coming in slightly hot having gone 15.7 innings without giving up a run. However, Volstad has lost both of his career starts to the Pirates including the one this season. In that game, he gave up five runs and five hits in five innings of work. Last year, Volstad gave up four runs and three hits in three innings pitched to the Pirates. Andrew McCutchen (2-5), Chris Snyder (2-4), Neil Walker (1-2), Pedro Alvarez (1-2), and Delwyn Young (1-1) have good numbers against the Marlins starter. Before yesterday’s game, the Pirates had scored four runs or more in five straight games and in six of their last seven games overall. Six of Pittsburgh’s last eight games have gone Over the total. The Marlins bullpen is 12-11 with a 4.44 ERA at home where they’ve blown 14 saves as well. Zach Duke has allowed at least three runs or more in all five of his September starts. The lefty is 3-7 with a 6.87 ERA in 11 road starts this season. He has yet to defeat the Marlins in six career starts. Duke gave up five runs and nine hits in 5.7 innings of work back in August to the Marlins. Dan Uggla (6-12), Chad Tracy (3-11), Hector Luna (3-6), Emilio Bonifacio (3-3), Gaby Sanchez (2-3), and Logan Morrison (1-3) all hit Duke well. The Marlins are 32-15 against lefties this season while hitting .268 against them. Pittsburgh’s bullpen is 7-17 on the road with an ERA over five. We expect a high-scoring game so we’ll recommend a play on the Over tonight between the Pirates and Marlins.

Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds
MLB Pick: Houston Astros -122 odds
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Now that the Reds have clinched the National League Central, they will no longer be playing full lineups for the remaining four days of the regular season. The regulars got a night off last night and it showed as Cincinnati was shutout and while most of those players should be back in the lineup tonight, I don’t expect all of them to be in the entire game. Even with regular in, the Reds have struggled offensively, scoring three runs or fewer in eight of their last 12 games.

Houston snapped a three-game skid last night, its second three-game losing streak over the last 10 days and both of those have been aberrations of late. The Astros have posted one of the best records in baseball in the second half, despite losing six of their last eight games on this current roadtrip. The starting pitching has hit a small bump during this run but the last two games once again saw excellent performances. Houston starters have posted a 3.27 ERA since the All-Star break, third best in baseball.

Brett Myers is getting a solid price as he looks to finish the season on a high.

He is coming off one of his worst outings in a long time but he went six innings and according to the MLB website, he is one of only five different pitchers since 1920 to pitch at least six innings in 32 consecutive appearances in a season. That is pretty remarkable. Also according to the website, he has already tied career high in wins, set a career high with 218 innings pitched and has a career-best ERA of 2.89. 24 of his 32 start have been quality outings and Houston has won six of his last seven starts.

The Reds counter with Bronson Arroyo who has been pitching very well also but I don’t expect the team to let him go too long tonight with the playoffs around the corner. He has already broken his career high for wins so there is not a whole lot of incentive to keep him in this game for very long as they just want to keep him in rhythm before the postseason. He has been outstanding in his recent starts against the Astros and that actually helps us with the price offered tonight.

The Astros are 10-1 in Myers’ last 11 starts after scoring two runs or less in their previous game while going 4-0 in his last four starts against teams with a winning record. The Reds meanwhile are 2-8 in their last 10 games after allowing two runs or less in their previous game and 1-4 in Arroyo’s last five home starts against teams with a losing record. 3* Houston Astros

MLB Pick: Blue Jays vs. Twins Under 8 (Scott Spreitzer)
I’m playing the Under between the Jays & Twins on Thursday night. The Minnesota Twins, playing for home field advantage throughout the AL playoffs, finally broke their losing streak with a win last night over Kansas City. But it wasn’t because of their bats. Instead, it was due to a strong pitching effort from Scott Baker and the bullpen. The Twins are obviously missing Justin Morneau, and could be without the services of J.J. Hardy, Joe Mauer (again), and Jim Thome tonight. This likely means that Minnesota will have to get the job done with solid pitching once again. Francisco Liriano is just the man for the job. The Minnesota southpaw has put up tremendous numbers at Target Field this season, including a 2.83 ERA & 1.15 WHIP. Liriano hasn’t faced the Blue Jays often, but he has held them to just one earned run and nine hits in eight innings of work. And this is a Blue Jay lineup that plates just 3.4 rpg against lefties, winning just 12 of 34 games this season. Shawn Hill will make his fourth start of September for the Jays. He owns a solid 2.81 ERA through his first three. Even if the players mentioned above do suit-up for the Twins, I expect them to have their hands full with Hill. The Twins are on a 14-5-1 run to the Under when Liriano throws on five days rest. And the Jays are on a 6-0 Under streak in games against lefthanded starters. Look for the battle between the Jays and Twins to stay Under the total on Thursday evening. Thanks! GL! Scott.

MLB Pick: Seattle Mariners +1.5 -140 (Rob Vinciletti)
On Thursday the MLB pick is on the Seattle Mariners. Game 974 at 10:10 eastern. Seattle looks like a live dog with a nice pitching edge here tonight. Seattle has won 18 of 25 here at home vs Oakland. When the total is 7 or less in their home games they are 20-13. Not bad for a team well under .500 on the year. Oakland is a dismal 1-10 on the road when the total is 7 or less in their road games. Oakland looks like their ready for the season to end. They have lost 6 straight. In the Pitching matchup they have G.Gonzlaez on the mound and he has a 5.79 era over his past 3 starts. Seattle counters with Fister here tonight. Fister has a solid 3.28 home era and has dominated Oakland with 3 wins this season. He has allowed just 3 runs in 19 innings of work against them this season. Look for Seattle to take Game 1 of this series tonight. Those looking for something to pound, consider the 5* MLB Diamond Cutter system that has cashed 90% of the time, has a 32-4 Power angle and wins by 4 runs per game. I also have a solid system side in the NCAAF Game tonight that also has 3 big Power Angles. For the MLB play take the Seattle Mariners tonight. RV

TCU vs. Colorado State
Pick: TCU -33 -110 odds
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The #5 ranked TCU Horned frogs are perfect at 4-0 TY, outscoring foes by an average of 29 PPG. They failed to impress LW, not covering by a ½ point over SMU, 41-24. Their offense is strong but their defense is incredible. They will completely shut down Colorado State. Their blitz packages are ferocious. They are salivating with the thought of facing a true freshman QB in Pete Thomas. Colorado State snapped a 12 game SU losing streak as well as a 9 game ATS skid with a last-second FG over Idaho LW. This team has nothing. They don’t have the running game to keep the “D” of TCU off of their passing game. The Horned Frogs are 5-1ATS their L6 meetings, 7-1 ATS their L8 games played vs. teams with a losing record, and 20-7-1 ATS their L 28 conference games. The Rams are 1-4 ATS their L5 at home, 1-9 ATS their L10 overall, and 0-6 ATS their L6 conference games. Take TCU. Thank you.