WEEK 9 COLLEGE FOOTBALL PICKS – OCTOBER 30TH 2010
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California Golden Bears (+3) vs. Oregon State Beavers
Oregon State (3-3) starts the second half of their season without their All-everything Wide-receiver and Kick returner James Rogers who is out for the year with a knee injury. Meanwhile, California (4-3) has had a couple of disappointing outings but have played solid football for the most part. The Golden Bears have held five of their seven opponents to their season low in total yardage. Bears growl here and maul Beavers. Take CALIFORNIA! -Chip Chirimbes
San Jose State vs. New Mexico State Under 47
WAC battle of the inept offenses. San Jose State (1-7 SU/3-3 ATS) has an anemic offense veraging 11 points and 240 total yards. Senior QB Jordan La Secla (4 TDs, 8 INTs) has little to work with outside of senior RB Lamon Muldrow. They squeezed out a 16-11 win over Southern Utah, despite only 250 total yards, and had a 14-13 loss at home to UC Davis. San Jose is 4-2 under the total. New Mexico State (1-6 SU/2-5 ATS) is terrible under coach Dewayne Walker, using 3 QBs and the offense is just awful, averaging 13 points. Their top two rushers average 3.3 ypc or less. Play New Mexico State/San Jose State Under the total. -Jim Feist
Missouri Tigers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers (-7.5)
Among the many big games this Saturday, one of the most important will be the clash between Missouri and Nebraska. These are two explosive offensive teams with the Tigers averaging 34.7 points per game and the Cornhuskers even better at 38.9 PPG. The amount of interest and significance is definitely compelling, since Missouri could all but wrap up the Big 12 North or Nebraska could regain control with a victory. What we find from database research is conference road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points, involved in a contest in which both squads average 34 or more points, having played seven or more games, are 3-26 against the spread. Play Against Missouri. -Doug Upstone
Baylor Bears (+7.5) vs. Texas Longhorns
At 11 pm, our complimentary selection is on the Baylor Bears + the points over Texas. Last week, we went against Texas and played on Iowa State +21 over the Longhorns, and were rewarded when the Cyclones actually won outright over Mack Brown’s men in Austin. A lot of folks will play on the Burnt Orange to rebound here with a win, but according to my database, teams tend to NOT rebound off REALLY BAD losses in which they were favored by 18+ points. Indeed, since 1980, College Football teams are a terrible 33-68 ATS when priced from +3 to -25.5 off a straight-up loss as a favorite of -18 points or more. And our 33-68 stat improves to 11-31 ATS if our ‘play-against’ team (here, Texas) is at home vs. a conference opponent. Take Baylor + the points. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. And don’t miss any of my 14 College Football Plays today, as we look to remain RED-HOT in Football. Or, better yet, join for a week or a month, and get all of our sharp information. And that includes Baseball + Hoops (7-1 our last 8 World Series plays)! -Big Al McMordie
Michigan Wolverines (-3) vs. Penn State Nittany Lions
Off back-to-back losses, a bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Michigan. I expect the Wolverines to put their off week to good use with a road win in Happy Valley today. While Michigan has won 10 of the last 15, including 5 of the last 7 on the road, in this series, this current group of Wolverines just remembers the 2 embarrassing losses they have endured to Penn State the last 2 seasons. Using those losses as motivation, Michigan will be ready to go today. Penn State has taken a step back on both sides of the football, while Michigan has taken a step forward. I just don’t see the Nittany Lions being able to get enough stops against an explosive Michigan offense averaging 36 ppg. The Nittany Lions are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, and I’m fading them in this role today. Take Michigan. -Jeff Alexander
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Arkansas Razorbacks (-20.5)
QB Ryan Mallett is reportedly healthy after battling concussion and shoulder problems. He’s avgg 297 ypg with a 15-7 TD/Int ration which means he’ll be able to do some business against the Commodores 90th ranked pass defense. Homies also starting to rush the ball with success which should open things up for the aerial assault. Vandy wears down in the second half and has been outscored by 68 points in the second half of their last four losses. Arkansas names the score. -Dennis Macklin
Kentucky Wildcats (+6) vs. Mississippi State Bulldogs
Right away, you have to like the fact that plays on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses, against an opponent off 4 or more consecutive straight up wins, are 85-35 ATS the last 10 seasons. This system is already 8-2 ATS this year. Kentucky isn’t getting the respect it deserves here. We’re talking about a team that took Auburn down to the wire and defeated South Carolina. Plus, the Wildcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings at Mississippi State. It is also worth noting that the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and the road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. Kentucky’s offense hasn’t been tamed in its last 4 SEC games, scoring at least 31 points in each, and Mississippi State won’t be able to shut Randall Cobb and company down either. This proves problematic for the Bulldogs, as they have been held to 14 of fewer points in 3 of 4 SEC contests. Take the points with Kentucky. -Jimmy Boyd
Akron Zips vs. Temple Owls (-29)
5* graded play on Temple as they host Akron set to start at 1:00 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Temple will win this game by 30 or more points. A complete and monumental mismatch that projects a similar result of my winner last week on Utah. Temple is supported by a system that has produced a 27-4 ATS mark for 87% winners since 1992. Play on home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points in conference games and is an average offensive team gaining 4.8 to 5.6 yards per pass and now facing a team with a terrible defense allowing >=6.2 yards per pass. Temple rolls BIG. -John Ryan
Idaho Vandals vs. Hawaii Warriors (-15)
On Saturday the Free System club Play is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors. Game 198 at 11:30 eastern. A late start in this one on the Island is for those who have no problem with college football from 12 noon to after 3 am in the morning. Hawaii is on a major roll right now having won five straight. They are 7-1 ats at home with revenge. In fact they are 29-2 ats in all home wins when they have revenge. They have covered 5 of the last 6 vs Idaho, including the last 3 here in Hawaii. Look for them to get a comfortable win vs an Idaho team that despite the abundance of returning starters has not performed as well as they did last year. Lay the number here with Hawaii. On Saturday I have a Huge card that includes The PAC 10 Game of the year and 4 more Big Best bets + Game 3 Of the World Series and the Early Season NBA System plays that are already off to a hot start. Most games are late afternoon or evening. For the System Club Play take Hawaii. -Rob Vincilleti
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