There has been a lot of hype building up for this game and for very good reason as it is a rarity to have two top ten teams from a non-major conference squaring off. For BYU, the game will feature a top 10 BYU team taking on a top 10 opponent in the Marriott Center for the first time in the facility’s history. The Cougars are 8-0 at home this season and their only loss came against UCLA on a neutral floor in Anaheim. This has become one of the toughest venues for visiting teams to have success in.
San Diego St. looks to remain one of only two undefeated teams in the country but it will not be easy. The Aztecs, despite being undefeated and ranked higher, are getting a healthy number here. This is a spot we would normally look at the home team based on public perception and perceived value but sometimes those angles are overshadowed by pure matchup advantages and that is what San Diego St. possesses and it is something you won’t see in the stats.
Malcolm Thomas, Kawhi Leonard and Billy White form arguably the best frontcourt in the country. This is an issue for the Cougars because they simply cannot match up down low which will enable San Diego St. to dominate down low with easy baskets and a formidable rebounding advantage. Cougars forwards Brandon Davies and Noah Hartsock are playing well but cannot compete here. BYU Guard Jimmer Fredette is the best player here but even he cannot do it all when things will come so easy for the Aztecs down low.
San Diego St. falls into a very solid situation as well. Play on teams that are coming off two consecutive conference wins by 10 points or more going up against opponents that are coming off a road win scoring 85 or more points. This situation is 27-6 ATS (81.8 percent) over the last five seasons. The Aztecs are 7-0 ATS this season against elite teams that are outscoring opponents by four or more ppg this season but BYU is 0-6 ATS this season following a spread cover. 3* (793) San Diego St. Aztecs