College Basketball Picks: February 26th 2011
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Pick: Depaul -1
DePaul and South Florida are clearly the two worst teams in the Big East. DePaul get the nod at home Saturday as they earn their second Big East victory of the season. This is a team that has been playing their best basketball of the year over the past few weeks. The Blue Demons are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall. To compare records, DePaul is 7-20 this season while South Florida is 8-20, further proving that this is an evenly matched game. DePaul gets the nod at home because South Florida is just 1-12 on the road this year. The Blue Demons have registered six of their seven wins at home. DePaul is 8-1 ATS in home games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games over the last 2 seasons. South Florida is 3-12 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. The Bulls are 4-16 ATS after a loss by 6 points or less over the last 3 seasons. Take DePaul Saturday. -Jack Jones

Pick: Alabama +1
Alabama boasts the best record in the SEC West at 11-2. However, they are 19-8 overall. The Tide needs a 20-win season and a better non-conference record to ensure a ride to the Big Show. They come into this contest winning 14 of 16 SU and going 12-3 ATS. Alabama has one of the best tandem of Forwards in the nation with JaMychal Green and Tony Mitchell. The pair are combining for 31.9 PPG and 14.6 RPG. Throw in Guard Trevor Releford (10.3 PPG) and ‘Bama has one solid offensive unit. But, it is their defense that has earned them a lot of attention. They hold opponents to a mere 57.9 PPG. They face a Mississippi squad that has dropped 3 of their L4 SU and 4 of their L5 ATS. In their L3 losses, the Rebels have allowed 74, 71, and 79 points. They rank at or near the bottom in the SEC allowing 36% beyond the arc and 43% FGs. Guards Chris Warren and Zach Graham can score (33.2 PPG combined) but in their 74-64 loss to Alabama 2 weeks ago, Warren was shut down (2-10 shooting) by Guard Senario Hillman. The Crimson Tide are 4-1-1 ATS their L6 at the Rebels, 5-0 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning percentage of over .600, and 14-3 ATS their L17 vs. the SEC. the Rebels are 2-5 ATS their L7 as a favorite, 1-4 ATS their L5 as a home fav, and 1-4 ATS their L5 vs. the SEC. take Alabama. Thank you. -Joseph D’Amico

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Pick: San Diego State -3.5
The Cougars who have won six of the last seven meetings against the Aztecs. One of those wins came back in January in Provo when the Cougars rallied to get a 71 to 58 home win as a 5.5-point home favorite. BYU must now travel to Viejas Arena and face a primed San Diego State team ready to avenge that earlier defeat. Sources close to the Cougars program have suggested that BYU’s star Jimmer Fredette has started to show signs of fatigue. This kid has averaged NBA type numbers with more than 27 points per game, teams are using double and triple teams against him, this has to wear on him not only mentally but also physically. We saw some of this last Wednesday when missed seventeen of twenty-six shots from the field against Colorado State. BYU has not been a good underdog team going 24-43-2 ATS overall in this role. San Diego State plays stout defense at home holding opponents to just 55.6 points per game on 38.7 percent from the field. They also control the boards out rebounding their opponents by more than seven rebounds per game. The Aztecs have done well in the role of favorite off a straight up win in this price range posting a record of 24-11 ATS their last thirty-five. If they are coming off a road win in this situation, they are 12-3-1 ATS and 7-1 ATS as a conference favorite. BYU on the other hand has struggled coming off a home win and now installed as an underdog going 11-23-1 ATS and 7-18-1 ATS as a conference underdog. This game holds major Big Dance implications and Steve Fishers crew will be well prepared to take care of business. Lay the short number as the Aztecs roll past the Cougars at Viejas Arena on Saturday afternoon. -Robbie Gainous

Pick: Kansas State -3.5
I like KSU in this match up. KSU has won 5 of 6 Big 12 games three double digit home victories, while Missouri has its only conference victory on the road versus lowly ISU. Kansas State is a team that needs to finish strong for any chance of an at large selection, while Missouri and coast to the end of the season with a bid likely clinched. K-State is a very strong team at home this season, with wins over Baylor and a convincing win over Kansas 12 days ago. They shoot much better at home (+6% from three over overall # at 43.2%) and have had a reliable guard option emerge in Rodney McGruder to help take pressure off of Jacob Pullen. KSU also has decent size in Samuels, Kelly and Henriquez- Roberts to help combat Missouri’s talented down low duo of Ratliffe and Bowers. Missouri is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a .600 or above road record, while KSU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games and 4-0 as a home favorite. Check out my selections today- going to have a couple of multi-game packs covering NCAA, NBA and NHL. 10-1 last 11 NCAA sides plays, 5-0 All Sports Underdog Plays. -Patrick Webb

BYU vs. San Diego State
College Basketball Prediction: San Diego State -3.5 -110 odds – February 26th 2011
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I’m laying the points with the Aztecs on Saturday afternoon. SDSU is about to embark on the biggest home game in Aztec history. The Viejas Center will be jumping as Jimmer Fredette and the “hated” BYU Cougars roll into town. The winner of this game could very well grab one of the four top seeds in the Big Dance. That’s exactly what’s on the line. There’s a lot of NBA talent on the floor in this matchup and SDSU owns the majority of it. No doubt Jimmer is tough to handle when the Cougars have the ball. But Fredette hasn’t been quite as sharp lately, facing double and even triple teams throughout the season. He only made 9 of 26 shots in BYU’s most recent contest, a win over Colorado State. SDSU normally plays Fredette straight up, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see more double-teaming in this one. BYU has nice role players, but no one can really step-up if Fredette is held in check. The best player on the floor wears an Aztec uniform. Kawhi Leonard, a sophomore, will likely enter the NBA draft following this season. At 6’7, he’s not a long range shooter, but owns a fantastic mid-range game. Leonard is also a nice ball-handler off of high screen picks, and will create open cuts to the basket for others. Leonard was unstoppable in the first meeting, a 71-58 BYU win in Provo. But the final score was not indicative of the actual game. SDSU led by a point at the half, and the game was nip-and-tuck for more than 30 minutes of action. BYU pulled away in the final minutes of the contest. Aztec guard D.J. Gay (12.1 ppg) went 0-7 in that contest. I expect a much improved game this time around, helping his team to the win and cover. SDSU is 25-13 ATS at home as a PK or a favorite. I expect another home win and cover in this one. I’m laying the points with San Diego State. Thanks! GL! Scott.

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Wichita State vs. Missouri State
NCAA Basketball Prediction: Missouri State -1 -110 odds – February 26th 2011
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You couldn’t ask for a better regular season finale in the MVC as Wichita St. heads to Missouri St. to play for the regular season championship. The Bears have already defeated Wichita St. once this season and while that sets up a revenge game for the Shockers, the final home game of the season for Missouri St. supersedes that. The Bears are 7-1 at home in the conference with the only loss coming by just a single point to Northern Iowa. Wichita St. was the overwhelming favorite to win the conference this season it has played well enough to do so with a 14-3 record but not many people expected the Shockers to be challenged. They have actually performed better on the road than at home this season as they are 9-1 outside of Charles Koch Arena with the only loss being a non-conference setback at San Diego St. Wichita St. is a perfect 8-0 in road MVC games which is a strong reason why the line is as low as it is. Wichita St. has been an underdog only two times this season and it failed to cover both of those games and going back further, the Shockers are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog of fewer than seven points. They are also just 3-8 ATS this season against teams coming off a win so stopping momentum has been a problem. Meanwhile, Missouri St. is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against teams with a winning road record. On the season it is 19-4 as a favorite and a win here also means a cover. 3* (550) Missouri St. Bears – Matt Fargo

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Phoenix Suns vs. Toronto Raptors
NBA Prediction: Toronto +4.5 -110 odds – February 25th 2011
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I won with Toronto in its most recent game as it downed Chicago outright on Wednesday. The Raptors remain home and are once again catching points and while I agree that they should be underdogs here, there is absolutely no value on the other side. Toronto is 11-18 at home which is very similar to the road record of the Suns so that is where the lack of value on Phoenix originates from. The Raptors have covered three straight games at home, all of which have been as home underdogs.

The Suns embark on a six-game roadtrip after spending the last two weeks at home in Phoenix with no travel involved. They are coming off a home win over Atlanta on Wednesday which put them a game over .500 on the season but they are still two games out of the final playoff spot in the Western Conference standings. These games are obviously big ones for Phoenix to try and climb up the ladder but as mentioned, winning on the road has been a real problem for the Suns.

Toronto is just 4-11 following a win this season so it has had trouble stringing consecutive victories together however it has dropped only five of those games against the number and that is more important for our purposes here. The Suns, which were road favorites 18 times last season, have been in this role only three times this year showing how bad they have fallen. They are 1-2 in those games, losing outright in Detroit and Sacramento and covering against lowly Cleveland by just a half-point.

The Suns will be playing without guard Goran Dragic who was traded to Houston while newly acquired guard Aaron Brooks is doubtful so the backcourt will be shorthanded Friday. Toronto falls into a great contrarian situation as well. Play on underdogs that are allowing opponents to shoot 48 percent or better on the season going up against teams that have shot 50 percent or better from the floor in their last two games. This situation is 49-19 ATS (72.1 percent) since 1996. 3* (808) Toronto Raptors

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Minnesota Wild vs. Anaheim Mighty Ducks
NHL Pick: Anaheim -129 odds – February 25th 2011
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Off four straight losses, the Ducks could really use a victory. With the schedule and venue in their favor, this offers an excellent opportunity to get one.

While the Ducks had last night off, the Wild are off a 4-2 loss at LA. They return home after this and their next game is a “revenge” spot against the defending Stanley Cup Champs. Note that the Wild are an ugly 3-10 (-6.7) the last 13 times that they played the second of back to back games.

These teams have faced each other three times. The home team won all three. The Wild won 2-1 at Minnesota on 11/17. The Ducks returned the favor with a 6-2 victory, here at Anaheim, on 12/12. That was followed by a 5-1 Wild victory, at Minnesota, exactly a week ago.

The Ducks are a lucrative 18-11 (+9.9) the past 29 times that they faced an opponent which defeated them in the previous meeting. They’re 61-48 (+20.7) their past 100+ in the “revenge” role. The Ducks are also 15-5 the last 20 times that they were a host in this series, going 3-0 the last three meetings here. Consider Anaheim. -Ben Burns

NBA Picks: February 25th 2011
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Pick: New Jersey Nets +12
At 8:30 pm, our complimentary selection is on the New Jersey Nets plus the points over San Antonio. The league’s best team — the Spurs — will get their first look at one of the league’s best point guards — Deron Williams — in his new Nets uniform on Friday night. And, if San Antone can defeat Avery Johnson’s club, it will match its longest home win streak (20 games) in franchise history, established in the 1989-90 season when David Robinson was a rookie playing at the old HemisFair Arena. The Spurs did defeat New Jersey 102-85 on Valentine’s Day in Newark, but of course that was with under-achieving Devin Harris on the roster. Look for a much closer game tonight, as Manu Ginobili has been struggling of late, and the team didn’t look very sharp in its first game back after the break vs. the Thunder on Wednesday. Grab the points with the Nets. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie.

Pick: Sacramento Kings +5
The Sacramento Kings (14-41) have started to cause some problems for their opponents as the recent win over the Magic will attest. Against the points they are beginning make an impact for their backers as they have covered four of their last seven contests. Chemistry is still a problem for the Bobcats and after trading Wallace yesterday they will be a little short on the court and against the points. Take the KINGS! -Chip Chirimbes

Pick: Golden State Warriors -2.5
Atlanta is a long way from home and this is their 5th straight road game. They haven’t been playing well, on a 1-5 SU/ATS run. The offense has really slumped of late and made a big trade this week, sending Mike Bibby, rookie Jordan Crawford, swingman Mo Evans and their 2011 first-round draft pick to the Wizards. Golden State is 19-12 at home and on a nice 3-1 SU/ATS run, even winning at Utah as a dog. They’ve also won 7 of the last 10 games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Warriors! -Jim Feist

Marquette vs. UConn
Pick: Marquette +5 -110 odds – February 24th 2011
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The Marquette Golden Eagles are fighting for their NCAA Tournament lives. At 16-11, this team really need a win tonight in Connecticut so they certainly won’t be short on motivation. It’s been a tumultuous week for Jim Calhoun and Connecticut. They are facing NCAA sanctions following an investigation of the program since a report by Yahoo! Sports in March 2009 that former team manager Josh Nochimson helped guide recruit Nate Miles to the school, giving him lodging, transportation, meals and representation. Calhoun will be suspended for three games next season, but the coach wasn’t with his team Wednesday at practice and will miss Thursday against Marquette as he attends a memorial service in Nashua, N.H., for his sister-in-law, Eileen McDevitt Fucile, who died Monday. The Golden Eagles need to improve on their 2-9 mark against AP Top 25 teams to gain an NCAA tournament berth. Six of those losses have been by five or fewer points, so they have proven they can play with the best. Marquette is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. The Eagles are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take Marquette and the points.

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California vs. Oregon
Pick: Oregon -3.5 -110 odds – February 24th 2011
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We won a small play with California on Sunday over UCLA and that big win means letdown time tonight. The Golden Bears had dropped four straight games prior to that and while they have lost a lot of close games this season, this is not the spot for them to be involved in a close game. Overall, California is 3-5 on the road which certainly isn’t horrible but all five of those losses came in Pac Ten games with the only two wins coming by a combined six points and one of those was against 2-12 Arizona St.

I played on Oregon three weeks ago when it was hosting Washington St. and the situation was very similar as the Cougars were coming off a huge home win over Washington and they fell flat on their face in Eugene. The lone difference here is that Oregon comes in with more momentum this time around as it has won two straight games and it is actually on a long-term solid roll, going 7-3 over its last 10 games following a dreadful 0-6 run that included a 0-4 start to the Pac Ten season.

In the first meeting this season, the Ducks lost in Berkeley as they fell behind early and could not recover. The difference in that game was free throws as the Golden Bears won that battle 30-17 which signifies some home cooking taking place. Even with that disparity, the Ducks must execute their offense more efficiently than in the first meeting, when they shot just 39 percent in the first half. California has actually won the last six meetings so the Ducks will be looking for some long-term payback.

Oregon has played only three home games over its last eight contests and it has won all three of those so the new floor is starting to become a complete home court edge. Overall, Oregon is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games and while it has been the favorite only once over that span, it came in the last game at home against rival Oregon St. The Golden Bears are only 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games following a win and despite California owning this series recently, the favorite is 4-1 ATS the last five meetings. 3* (534) Oregon Ducks

DENVER NUGGETS VS. BOSTON CELTICS
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IRON HORSE 10* NBA TOTAL OF THE MONTH
CONGRATULATIONS to Carlo Campanella for easily cashing on the Phoenix Suns as his “NBA System of the Year” last night! The Winning continues on Thursday with his “NBA Total of the Month” as the Nuggets host the Celtics.

NBA Betting Trends:
Nuggets are 6-19-4 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Nuggets are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Celtics are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Celtics are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.
Celtics are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. win.
Celtics are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games following a ATS win.
Celtics are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Under is 8-2-1 in Nuggets last 11 games as a home underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 5-2 in Nuggets last 7 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 12-5-1 in Nuggets last 18 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 14-6-1 in Nuggets last 21 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 48-22-1 in Nuggets last 71 games as a home underdog.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 vs. NBA Northwest.
Under is 5-2 in Celtics last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 34-16-1 in Celtics last 51 Thursday games.
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CHICAGO BULLS VS. MIAMI HEAT
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NBA Betting Trends:
Bulls are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Bulls are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games as a home underdog.
Bulls are 35-17 ATS in their last 52 games as an underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Bulls are 15-32-1 ATS in their last 48 vs. NBA Southeast.
Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Heat are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Heat are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 overall.
Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 home games.
Over is 4-0 in Bulls last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games as a home underdog.
Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Heat last 4 vs. NBA Central.
Over is 6-1 in Heat last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 10-2 in Heat last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 9-2 in Heat last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
NBA Basketball Picks