The first game back after the NBA All-Star Break provides us with a rather unique betting situation. Players’ “routines” have been altered and the majority of them weren’t involved in the All Star game itself. That can often lead to some “rust” on the offensive side of the ball.
Naturally, results vary from year to year. However, if we look at last season, in the day following the All-Star Break, the “under” was 7-3. A closer look reveals that ALL 10 of those games finished with 204 or fewer combined points. The only one that finished with 204 had an O/U line of 220. Overall, those 10 games averaged only 194.5 points.
The Clippers managed only 87 points in their first game back from “The Break” last season. The Thunder scored 99, holding Dallas to only 86. That game stayed below the number by double-digits, finishing with 185 combined points.
When these teams met earlier in the season, the final score finished above the total. However, the O/U line for that game was only 196.5 and the teams combined for just 199. Of course, tonight’s number is significantly higher, which I feel provides us with very fair value.
Looking back to last season and we find that all three meetings finished with 194 or fewer combined points. They had final scores of 104-87, 101-93 and 83-79.
The Clippers, still without their leading scorer, entered the break off three consecutive games which fell below the total. The Thunder saw two of their final three stay below the number. Consider the Under.