1st Round NCAA Tournament Picks: March 17th 2011
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Pick: Old Dominion -2
Happy St. Patrick’s Day! Round 1 tournament action for the 2011 March Madness Tourney. If Old Dominion isn’t a covering machine I don’t know what is. (7 of their last 9? WOW) They get the 2010 runners-up on Thursday in the Butler Bulldogs. The Horizon Conference was not much to speak about this year in my opinion so I believe the Monarchs are more battle tested, throw in the fact that Coach Blaine Taylor runs an aggressive zone defense that has held opponents to 65.8 points per game and I will gladly give the 2 points in this one. The winner likely will get top-seed Pittsburgh in Saturday’s 2nd round. Trends I like for this one include, Monarchs are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall, and are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite. Butler is 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 50 points in their previous game, and are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

Pick: Cincinnatii -1
I don’t like the way Mizzou has looked down the stretch, going 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS. The Bearcats have performed much better late in the season, going 6-2 SU and ATS in their last 8 with wins over tournament teams Louisville, Georgetown and Marquette. Defense wins games more often than not this time of year and Cincy has the superior “D”. The Bearcats rank 9th in the nation in scoring defense with just 59.2 points allowed per game. The Tigers, meanwhile, rank 271st with 71.4 points per game allowed. Teams have consistently had success against Mizzou’s full-court pressure late in the season, and I expect Cincy to execute against it as well. After all, it has seen a better press from the Louisville Cardinals. The Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 versus the Big East. The Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite. Bet the Bearcats.

Pick: UCLA +2
At 9:20 pm, our complimentary selection is on the UCLA Bruins + the points over Michigan State. Ben Howland’s men finished second in the Pac-10 regular season, but were bounced out of the tournament last Thursday by seventh-seeded Oregon, 76-59. Still, UCLA comes into this game with a 22-10 record, yet finds itself installed as a 2-point underdog vs. a lower-seeded Michigan St club which is 19-14 on the year. Certainly, MSU’s reputation as a successful team in “March Madness” under coach Tom Izzo is at the root of this inefficiency in the market, as I would not have set the pointspread there. But I’m also not going to complain, as the oddsmakers’ error is our opportunity. Indeed, since 1993, consider that teams seeded #4 or worse, with a win percentage of .667 or better, are 40-14 ATS in the Tourney’s opening round, if they lost by 15+ points to close out their regular season. And, if they are matched up against a foe which has a win percentage less than .640, then our 40-14 stat zooms to 11-1 ATS (92%). Take UCLA. Good luck, as always…Al McMordie. And don’t miss any of my 10 Winners on this Thursday, including an Elite Info play out of a 27-2 ATS System, as well as our Top Play in the Opening Round (We’re 4-0 the past 4 Years on our Opening Round Top Plays). Or, better yet, join for a week or a month, and get all of our sharp information. -Big Al McMordie

NBA Predictions: March 16th 2011
Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks +6 -110 odds
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While on paper this looks like an absolute mis-match of EPIC proportions. When I look a little closer I think the final score might surprise you in this one. Did you know the Home team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these two? Orlando will be playing its 3rd game in 4 nights, (Can you say “Tired Legs”?) Milwaukee is coming off 2 brutal losses in the last 7 days. But they’re fresher, and especially after that Boston game have a bounce back in them tonight at home. They have a ton to play for still as they are just 2 ½ games behind Indiana for the final playoff spot in the East. The teams have split two meetings this season, with each winning on its own court. Trends I like for this one include, Magic are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, and are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points, are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record, and are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

College Basketball Predictions: March 16th 2011
Bet On: Montana
Visit Touthouse.com for more expert college basketball predictions from Rocky Atkinson

Duquesne is 1-5 ATS this year after a loss against a conference opponent. Montana is 7-1 ATS last 3 years against good offensive teams scoring 77 points per game or more. Montana is 6-0 ATS since 1997 in first round tournament games. Montana is 13-1 SU at home this year where they are allowing only 55.5 points per game. Dukes are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. Dukes are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Dukes are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games. Dukes are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5. Dukes are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. Dukes are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games after allowing more than 90 points in their previous game. Dukes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU loss. Dukes are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-6.5. Dukes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Dukes are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning SU record. Dukes are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games overall. Dukes are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Grizzlies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. We’ll recommend a small play on Montana tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

SAN DIEGO STATE VS. NORTHERN COLORADO
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends:
Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Aztecs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Aztecs are 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Aztecs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 non-conference games.
Aztecs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.
Bears are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater.
Bears are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games.
Bears are 2-12 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.
Bears are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Under is 7-2 in Aztecs last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 6-2 in Aztecs last 8 Thursday games.
Under is 14-5 in Aztecs last 19 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 8-3 in Aztecs last 11 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.
Under is 35-17 in Aztecs last 52 non-conference games.
Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 neutral site games.
Under is 5-1 in Bears last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Bears last 5 non-conference games.
Over is 6-2 in Bears last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-2 in Bears last 7 Thursday games.

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College Basketball Picks: March 16th 2011
Bet On: Valparaiso -1
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I played against Iona in its last game which was the MAAC Championship as it lost to St. Peter’s in a big upset. The Gaels were big favorites in that game and they had the inside track to the NCAA Tournament following the loss by Fairfield but they failed to get the job done. Now they hit the road in the CIT and they are not too thrilled even though this is the first postseason appearance for Iona since 1996. The Gaels lost to the only Horizon League opponent they faced, a 10-point setback at Cleveland St.

Valparaiso has been off since March 5th after it lost to Wisconsin-Milwaukee and it was a much needed break as it was nicked up with some lingering injuries. The Crusaders were hoping to get any postseason invite and they got it along with another home game on top of it. Valparaiso went 13-3 at home this season with one of those losses coming against Purdue early in the season. Quality home wins include victories against Cleveland St., Butler and Missouri St., all of which are in a postseason tournament.

Crusaders head coach Home Drew put it in perspective. “We’d welcome an opportunity to compete in the postseason. We would like to reward this team for winning 23 games and finishing just one game out of the league title, and to help our team prepare for the future.” This game has more meaning as this is actually a revenge game for Valparaiso as two years ago, the Gales hammered the Crusaders by 20 points in a Thanksgiving tournament in St. Thomas. Six current players were part of that debacle.

The Crusaders offense is a solid one and it will be tough to stop. Valparaiso has shot 47.5 percent from the floor this season, tops in the Horizon League and 18th-best in the nation. The Crusaders are 24-6-1 ATS in their last 31 games following a loss and they are 10-3 ATS this season against teams outscoring opponents by four or more ppg. Meanwhile Iona is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four games following a loss and that run continues here on the road on Wednesday. 3* (662) Valparaiso Crusaders

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VANDERBILT VS. RICHMOND
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends:
Commodores are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic 10.
Commodores are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games.
Commodores are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Commodores are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 Thursday games.
Commodores are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Spiders are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Spiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Spiders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Spiders are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Spiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Commodores last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 5-1 in Commodores last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 4-1 in Commodores last 5 neutral site games as a favorite.
Over is 8-3 in Commodores last 11 Thursday games.
Over is 15-6 in Commodores last 21 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 4-0 in Spiders last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 4-0 in Spiders last 4 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Spiders last 7 neutral site games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Spiders last 6 non-conference games.
Over is 5-2 in Spiders last 7 Thursday games.

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PITTSBURGH VS. NC ASHEVILLE
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends:
Panthers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Panthers are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a S.U. loss.
Panthers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 neutral site games.
Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Panthers are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games.
Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a S.U. win.
Bulldogs are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Under is 7-1 in Panthers last 8 overall.
Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 5-1 in Panthers last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 8-2 in Panthers last 10 non-conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Panthers last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 7-2 in Panthers last 9 Thursday games.
Over is 5-2 in Panthers last 7 neutral site games.
Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 non-conference games.

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PRINCETON VS. KENTUCKY
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends:
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Wildcats are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Wildcats are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Tigers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Tigers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Tigers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games.
Tigers are 12-5-1 ATS in their last 18 games as an underdog of 13.0 or greater.
Tigers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 overall.
Under is 4-1 in Wildcats last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-2 in Wildcats last 7 neutral site games.
Over is 14-6 in Wildcats last 20 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Over is 22-10 in Wildcats last 32 games as a favorite of 13.0 or greater.
Under is 8-3 in Tigers last 11 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 5-2 in Tigers last 7 overall.
Under is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 neutral site games.
Under is 7-3 in Tigers last 10 neutral site games as an underdog.

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PENN STATE VS. TEMPLE
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends:
Owls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
Owls are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 neutral site games as a favorite.
Owls are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Owls are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games following a S.U. loss.
Owls are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Nittany Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in the fourth game of a 4-in-7 days situation.
Nittany Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Nittany Lions are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss.
Nittany Lions are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Nittany Lions are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Under is 10-2 in Owls last 12 neutral site games.
Under is 5-1 in Owls last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
Under is 4-1 in Owls last 5 vs. Big Ten.
Under is 7-2 in Owls last 9 neutral site games as a favorite.
Over is 9-3-1 in Owls last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 19-7 in Owls last 26 Thursday games.
Under is 19-7-2 in Owls last 28 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 4-1 in Nittany Lions last 5 in the fourth game of a 4-in-7 days situation.
Over is 5-2 in Nittany Lions last 7 games following a ATS loss.

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MOREHEAD STATE VS. LOUISVILLE
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NCAA Basketball Betting Trends:
Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Cardinals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Cardinals are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 vs. Ohio Valley.
Cardinals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games.
Eagles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games as an underdog.
Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.
Eagles are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Eagles are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS loss.

Over/Under Betting Trends:
Over is 3-0-1 in Cardinals last 4 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 Thursday games.
Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. Ohio Valley.
Under is 6-0 in Cardinals last 6 games as a favorite.
Under is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 5-1 in Eagles last 6 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.
Over is 4-1 in Eagles last 5 games as an underdog.
Under is 14-6-1 in Eagles last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.

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