2012 Kentucky Derby Winning Exacta, Trifecta & Longshot Pick

Are you a horse racing aficionado looking to cash in on this year’s Kentucky Derby? Maybe you’re just a casual horse racing fan that only bets on each of the ‘Triple Crown’ horse races each year.

Well, whichever category you fit in, thanks to the bettor-friendly management at Touthouse.com, you’ll get a great chance to cash in with a winning wager or two on the 2012 Kentucky Derby when the first leg of the Triple Crown gets underway live from Chruchill Downs in Louisville, KY on Saturday, May 5th at 6:24 PM ET live on NBC.

That’s right horse racing bettors, the 138th running of the sport’s biggest race will take place this coming weekend – and it brings with it – a multitude of chances to cash in hug, depending on which horse or horse you like to ‘bring home the bacon’ this coming Saturday.

Let’s take a look at all of the pertinent information surrounding this year’s $2,000,000 Kentucky Derby (GI) Presented by Yum! Brands, followed by my exacta pick, trifecta pick, longshot pick and the horse I like to win it all.

Forecast
Just this past Saturday evening, hail up to 2″ in diameter (bigger than golf balls) pounded Churchill Downs, suspending racing for 50 minutes on opening night of the spring meet. The forecast for this year’s Kentucky Derby says that temperatures will likely be somewhere in the 80s – with a slight chance of scattered thunderstorms.

The Field
This year’s Run for the Roses features a whopping $2 million purse and features several horses that all have legitimate chances of winning it all, not to mention the fact that at least one serious underdog routinely seems to make its way into the top three finishers these days.

This year’s field has a pair of top contenders that are identical favorites to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby.

Bodemeister and Union Rags are both listed at 9/2 with Dullahan (8/1), Gemologist (7/1), Creative Cause (11/1) and Hansen (14/) following closely in the minds of oddsmakers everywhere.

In the cases of the top two favorites, maybe Bodemeister shouldn’t be listed as high as he is. Touthouse horse racing bettors should know that he was unraced as a 2-year-old and that it has been a whopping 130 years since such a horse has won the Kentucky Derby.

Bodemeister also lost to Creative Cause at Santa Anita on March 10th, coming in second place that day. However, Bodemeister does have a great jockey in Mike Smith and an experienced trainer in Bob Baffert.

Union Rags had no races in the month of April and will be well-rested as many of his betting backers will expect him to peak at just the right time. Union Rags finished second behind Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs last fall, then won the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream Park in his 2012 racing debut.

As far as Gemologist is concerned, he will put his five-race unbeaten streak on the line at the 2012 Kentucky Derby and there is precedence for horses that haven’t lost coming into the derby.

Seven horses have won the Kentucky Derby while undefeated and Gemologist will be the 23rd to try to pull off the feat since 1900. The last to do it was Big Brown in 2008. He also won the Preakness that year to set up a chance at winning the Triple Crown – before losing in the Belmont Stakes.??Gemologist has won twice at Churchill Downs with his biggest coming on April 7 in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.

Dullahan is another horse that will have a very real chance to win this year’s derby and he will be running care-free after winning the Blue Grass G1 at Keeneland in his last race in early April.

Creative Cause is coming off a big win in March and finished second at Santa Anita in April. More importantly, Creative Cause has not finished lower than third (twice) in eight races dating back to July of 2011.

Despite losing to Dullahan at the Blue Grass G1 in his last race, Hansen is undoubtedly one of the few horses with the best chances to win it all this year. To illustrate this fact, just know that this horse has won four of his last six races while coming in second place in the other two races.

Here is a look at the entire 2012 Kentucky Derby field followed by my picks on what looks like one of the more evenly-matched Kentucky Derby races in the event’s storied history.

2012 Kentucky Derby Betting Odds
Alpha 11/1
Bodemeister 9/2
Creative Cause 11/1
Daddy Long Legs 30/1
Daddy Nose Best 15/1
Done Talking 50/1
Dullahan 8/1
El Padrino 16/1
Gemologist 7/1
Hansen 14/1
Hero of Order 100/1
I’ll Have Another 15/1
Liaison 40/1
Mark Valeski 23/1
My Adonis 40/1
Optimizer 60/1
Prospective 50/1
Rousing Sermon 40/1
Sabercat 35/1
Take Charge Indy 16/1
Trinniberg 45/1
Union Rags 9/2
Went The Day Well 18/1

Analysis: While one long shot horse has consistently transformed himself into a legitimate Derby contender in each of the last few years, I don’t see that happening this time around with at last five horses that all have very real chances of winning this year’s gathering.

Exacta/Trifecta Pick: I firmly believe the top three finishers will all be elite Derby contenders capable of winning it all. However, I do have a preferable order of finish and it includes Creative Cause finishing third, and Dullahan finishing second.

My Winning Pick: I’m going to have to back Hansen to win this year’s Kentucky Derby by getting some revenge against Dullahan for his narrow loss on April 14. Hansen also beat Union Rags in November of 2011 at the 2011 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs and won’t be bothered at all with the 10 furlong length of this all-important race.

Long Shot Pick: If I had to pick a long shot horse to win this year’s Run for the Roses, I’m going to take My Adonis mostly because he finished right behind Hansen in two of his last three races.

We hope you enjoyed our 2012 Kentucky Derby Exacta, Trifecta and Longshot pick page. Be sure to check back next year for all of your Kentucky Derby betting needs and good luck on the Triple Crown from Touthouse.com