MLB Baseball Betting Picks: April 30th 2012
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Toronto +140
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The Jays are showing value at this price as scheduled starter Drabek has the stuff to go toe-to-toe with Darvish. Drabek’s season ERA (2.25) is lower than Davish’s (2.42) and his home ERA (1.42) is lower than Darvish’s road ERA (1.50). Drabek won his only previous meeting with the Rangers, a 6-4 victory at Texas on April 25, 2011, when he yielded three runs in six innings.

The Rangers have struggled against the Blue Jays, losing 13 of the last 19 in the series, including 9 of the last 12 north of the border. It also can’t go unmentioned that their best player, Josh Hamilton, left Sunday’s game with back stiffness. His status for tonight’s game is still up in the air, but don’t be surprised if his swing is affected by the injury if he does go. Back injuries can be very difficult to deal with.

We’ll take the Jays at a nice price.

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NBA Playoffs Betting Picks: April 20th 2012
Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks
Pick: Miami Heat -9.5
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Whether they blow the Knicks out or not, there’s no way anyone in their right mind can pick the New York Knicks to cover the spread against the far superior Miami Heat in this Eastern Conference showdown.

The Heat didn’t just beat New York, they crushed any hopes (dreams) that the New York Knicks may have had of winning this series, by pounding them into submission in their 100-67 rout on Saturday.

Now, I like the Heat to win again by double digits and cover the spread as a big home favorite tonight.

Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and an even more impressive 8-2 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as a favorite.

While the Heat have also gone 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game, the Knicks have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog between 5.0 and 10.5 points and I don’t see them getting the job done tonight either.

The good news for Knicks betting backers is the fact that the Road team in this series has gone 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings. -Eric Williams

MLB Predictions: April 30th 2012
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Prediction: San Diego Padres -108
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The Brewers were able to salvage one game at St. Louis with a 3-2 win on Sunday but now they head out west with a 4-6 record on the road. The offense managed only six runs in the three-game set against the Cardinals and that offense has been an issue all season. The Brewers are hitting only .237 on the season including a mere .228 on the road and both of those are near the bottom of the league. Milwaukee is now 16-35 in its last 51 games as an underdog.

It was the opposite way for San Diego as it won the series opener at San Francisco before losing the final two games of their three-game series. The Padres are now back home for a nine-game homestand which could prove to be a very integral part of the season should it go one way or the other. The Padres are just 5-9 at home and like the Brewers, it is the offense that has been holding it back. Not favored often, the Padres do take advantage as they are 4-0 in their last four games when laying the price.

San Diego sends Joe Wieland to the hill and while he has yet to pick up a win in his rookie season, he has looked sharp. His Major League debut was not a good one as he allowed six runs in five innings on the road against the Dodgers but he has settled in at home where he has tossed two quality starts while posting a 2.25 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 12 innings. Run support is the issue but we should see another strong outing as the Brewers are 0-5 in their last five road games against right-handed starters.

The Brewers counter with Randy Wolf who is off to a rough start this season. He is coming off a quality outing but that was his first one as his other three starts resulted in some bad numbers. Even though his last start was a good one, he has a 7.17 ERA on the year including a 16.62 ERA in his lone road start. He has bee hit hard in three of his last four starts in San Diego and Milwaukee is 3-9 in his last 12 road starts against teams with a losing road record. 3* (962) San Diego Padres -Matt Fargo

Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Playoffs Prediction & Odds
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The Los Angeles Clippers (40-26 SU, 33-33 ATS, 33-32-1 O/U) took two of three from the Memphis Grizzlies (41-25 SU, 29-37 ATS, 26-40 O/U) this season but dropped the last meeting on April 9 in Memphis.

The Clippers went 17-16 ATS at home and a polar opposite 16-17 ATS on the road while averaging 97.5 points per contest (14th) and shooting a solid 45.5 percent from the field (10th). L.A. finished 22nd in rebounding (41.6 rpg). Defensively, the Clippers allowed 95.0 points per game (13th) and 14th in defensive field goal percentage (44.7).

The Clippers had a whopping six players average double figures in scoring this season, led by Blake Griffin’s 20.7 points per game and Chris Paul’s 19.8 points per contest.

The Memphis Grizzlies caught fire late in the regular season to become the team that no one wants to face this postseason (again). The Grizz have won six straight and eight of its L/10 games.

Memphis averaged just 95.0 points per game (20th) while making 44.7 percent of their field goal attempts (16th) and 32.6 percent of their three-point attempts (25th).

Defense however, was a strong suit for the Grizzlies as they gave up just 93.0 points per game (fifth) while limiting their opponents to just 44.4 percent shooting (12th) and 34.5 percent from beyond the arc (11th). The Grizzlies had five double-digit scorers this season, led by Rudy Gay’s 19.0 points per contest.

Here is a look at the key ATS and O/U trends for both ballclubs this season.

Los Angeles
Clippers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Clippers last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Clippers last 7 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Clippers last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Under is 9-4 in Clippers last 13 Sunday games.

Memphis
Grizzlies are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as a favorite.
Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Grizzlies are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Grizzlies are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Grizzlies are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 14-5 in Grizzlies last 19 overall.
Under is 10-4 in Grizzlies last 14 games as a favorite.

Key head-to-head trends
Under is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Memphis.

My picks for the four first round matchups are…
San Antonio in five
Oklahoma City in six
Lakers in six
Memphis in six

Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
Playoffs Prediction & Odds
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The Denver Nuggets (38-28 SU, 36-30 ATS, 32-33-1 O/U) closed out the regular season with four straight wins and six in their L/7 games and eight of their L/10 games overall. The Nuggets led the league in scoring (104.1 ppg) while finishing second in field goal percentage (47.6) and eighth in rebounding (43.1).

Denver had a half-dozen players average double figures in scoring, led by point guard Ty Lawson (16.4 ppg), but ranked a dismal 29th in points allowed (101.2 ppg), 24th in field goal percentage (45.6) and a disappointing 30th in three-point field goal defense (38.3). The Nuggets went 14-19 ATS at home during the regular season but made up for it on the road by going 22-11 ATS.

The Los Angeles Lakers (41-25 SU, 28-28 ATS, 37-28-1 O/U) took two of three regular season meetings against the Nuggets but didn’t fare very well when it came to covering the spread this season as they finished 16-17 ATS at home and a dismal 12-21 ATS on the road.

L.A. averaged 97.3 points per game (15th) but shot the ball well from the field tin finishing eighth in field goal percentage (45.7). Three-point shooting was a weakness with the Lakers shooting just 32.5 percent beyond the arc (26th). Defensively, the Lakers ranked 15th in points allowed (95.9 ppg) and an impressive ninth in field goal shooting percentage (43.7). L.A. placed four players in double digits in scoring, led by Kobe Bryant’s 27.9 points per contest.

Here is a look at the key ATS and O/U trends for both ballclubs this season.

Denver
Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Nuggets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Western Conference.
Nuggets are 25-8 ATS in their last 33 games as a road underdog.
Nuggets are 30-11 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog.
Nuggets are 36-15 ATS in their last 51 road games.
Over is 5-1-1 in Nuggets last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 22-7 in Nuggets last 29 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 3-1-1 in Nuggets last 5 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 9-3 in Nuggets last 12 vs. NBA Pacific.

Los Angeles
Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 10 points.
Lakers are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 vs. Western Conference.
Lakers are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 Sunday games.
Lakers are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games overall.
Lakers are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite.
Lakers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Lakers last 5 home games.
Under is 20-6 in Lakers last 26 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 11-4 in Lakers last 15 games as a home favorite.
Over is 20-8 in Lakers last 28 overall.

Key head-to-head trends
Under is 21-6 in the last 27 meetings.
Under is 16-5 in the last 21 meetings in Los Angeles.
Nuggets are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Los Angeles.
Nuggets are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings.

Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs
Playoffs Prediction & Odds
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The Utah Jazz (36-30 SU, 34-31-1 ATS, 32-32-2 O/U) will have their hands full with the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs (50-16 SU, 42-20-4 ATS, 39-26-1 O/U) in this first round matchup.

The Jazz lost two of three regular season meetings against the Spurs, but they will enter the postseason riding a stellar five-game SU winning streak that earned them the last spot in the conference playoffs.

The good news for Utah betting backers is the fact that the Jazz ranked fourth in scoring (99.7 ppg) while finishing ninth in field goal shooting percentage (45.6) and third in rebounding (44.2 rpg). Defensively, the Jazz ranked 23rd in points allowed (99.0 ppg) despite ranking eighth in defensive three-point percentage (34.0).

Utah went 20-13 ATS at home this season and 14-18-1 ATS on the road while placing four players in double-digit scoring, led by veteran forward Al Jefferson (19.2 ppg).

The Spurs enter the postseason as the league’s hottest team, having won a blistering 10 straight games and 21 of their L/23 games overall. San Antonio has scored over 100 points in 18 of their L/23 games while topping the 110-point plateau in 13 of those contests, including seven of their L/8 games overall.

San Antonio has gone 24-8-1 ATS at home this season and an equally impressive 18-12-3 ATS on the road while ranking second in scoring (103.7 ppg) and first in both, field goal percentage and three-point percentage.

Defensively, the Spurs finished 16th in points allowed (96.5 ppg) and just 17th in field goal percentage. San Antonio placed four players in double-digit scoring this season while four more players averaged at least 9.0 points per contest.

Here is a look at the key ATS and O/U trends for both ballclubs this season.

Utah
Jazz are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Jazz are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Jazz are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.
Over is 5-0 in Jazz last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Jazz last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Jazz last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-2 in Jazz last 7 road games.

San Antonio
Spurs are 20-5-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
Spurs are 23-7-2 ATS in their last 32 vs. Western Conference.
Spurs are 36-12-4 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
Spurs are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Spurs last 5 home games.
Over is 8-2 in Spurs last 10 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Over is 21-7-1 in Spurs last 29 overall.

Key head-to-head trends
Over is 14-3 in the last 17 meetings in San Antonio.
Favorite is 21-7-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings.
Over is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings.
Road team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
Jazz are 3-11-1 ATS in the last 15 meetings in San Antonio.

Boston Celtics vs. Atlanta Hawks
Playoffs Prediction & Odds
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The Boston Celtics (39-27 SU, 34-30-2 ATS, 28-35-3 O/U) and Atlanta Hawks (40-26 SU, 36-28-2 ATS, 33-32-1 O/U) will likely stage the best first round playoff series in the Eastern Conference and here’s why.

Boston won the regular season series over Atlanta 2-1 despite losing the last matchup just over a week ago. Both teams enter the postseason riding hot streaks with Boston having won three of its L/4 games and seven of its L/10 games overall. Atlanta won five of its final six games and like Boston, seven of its final 10 regular season games overall.

The Celtics compiled an impressive 18-14-1 ATS mark at home this season while going 16-16-1 ATS on the road. The veteran-laden C’s averaged just 91.8 points per game (26th) while finishing 30th in rebounding (38.8 rpg).

Defensively, the Celtics finished second in the league in points allowed (89.3) while also finishing first in field goal (41.9) and three-point percentage (30.8). Five players averaged double figures in scoring for Boston, with veteran Paul Pierce (19.4 ppg) leading the way.

The Atlanta Hawks went 17-16 ATS at home this season and a very impressive 19-12-2 ATS on the road this season while averaging 96.6 points per game (17th) and limiting their opponents to just 93.2 points per contest defensively.

The Hawks had five players average double figures in scoring this season and got 18.8 points per game from both, Joe Johnson and Josh Smith.

Here is a look at the key ATS and O/U trends for both ballclubs this season.

Boston
Celtics are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 4.5 points or less.
Celtics are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog.
Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southeast.
Celtics are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 road games.
Celtics are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
Celtics are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games following a ATS win.

Atlanta
Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 Sunday games.
Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Hawks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 playoff games as a favorite.
Hawks are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.
Hawks are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Over is 5-0 in Hawks last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 11-1 in Hawks last 12 games as a home favorite.
Over is 10-1 in Hawks last 11 home games.

Key head-to-head trends
Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings.

Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Playoffs Prediction & Odds
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The Dallas Mavericks (36-30 SU, 32-34 ATS, 33-33 O/U) may be the defending champions, but the Oklahoma City Thunder (47-19 SU, 35-31 ATS, 31-35 O/U) have plans on vanquishing them in this first round matchup.

The Mavericks limp into the postseason having lost two straight and four of its L/6 games overall while finishing 19th in scoring (95.8 ppg), 19th in field goal percentage (44.3) and 20th in three-point shooting percentage.

Defensively, the Mavs finished an identical 12th in points allowed (94.8 ppg) and three-point field goal defense. Dallas had four double-digit scorers on its roster, led by Dirk Nowitzki’s 21.6 points per contest.

The Oklahoma City Thunder took two of the three regular season meeting against the Mavericks, including each of the last two, though Dallas cashed in for betting backers in two of the three games.

The Thunder went 17-16 ATS at home and 18-15 ATS on the road while finishing third in scoring (103.1 ppg) and field goal percentage (47.1). Oklahoma City also finished 11th in three-point shooting percentage and first in free throw percentage (80.6).

Defensively, the Thunder finished just 17th in points allowed (96.9 ppg), but a surprising fourth in field goal defense (42.7) and ninth in three-point shooting percentage (34.2).

Oklahoma City was led in scoring by league leader Kevin Durant (28.0 ppg) while placing two other players in double-digit scoring, including point guard Russell Westbrook (23.6 ppg).

Here is a look at the key ATS and O/U trends for both ballclubs this season.

Dallas
Mavericks are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 Conference Quarterfinals games.
Mavericks are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog.
Mavericks are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an SU loss.
Mavericks are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Mavericks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Mavericks last 5 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Over is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 road games.
Over is 5-2 in Mavericks last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Over is 10-4 in Mavericks last 14 vs. NBA Northwest.
Over is 17-8 in Mavericks last 25 overall.

Oklahoma City
Thunder are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games following an ATS loss.
Thunder are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games.
Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Thunder are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Thunder are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Thunder are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 vs. NBA Southwest.
Under is 5-1 in Thunder last 6 games following an ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 in Thunder last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
Under is 6-2 in Thunder last 8 home games.
Under is 11-5 in Thunder last 16 overall.

Key head-to-head trends
Mavericks are 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings in Oklahoma City.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
Under is 13-4-1 in the last 18 meetings in Oklahoma City.
Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 24-8-2 ATS in the last 34 meetings.
Underdog is 17-4-1 ATS in the last 22 meetings.

Orlando Magic vs. Indiana Pacers
Playoffs Prediction & Odds
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NBA gamblers won’t have a tough time at all in picking the winner of this series, with the Orlando Magic (37-29 SU, 34-32 ATS, 33-31-2 O/U) falling completely apart late this season after losing all-star center Dwight Howard to a back injury. Even if Howard were available for this series, the dysfunctional Magic have some very serious problems and will be facing a really good Indiana Pacers (42-24 SU, 32-34 ATS, 34-30-2 O/U) team that hits the postseason having won eight of its L/10 games.

Orlando went 17-16 ATS at home this season and 18-13-2 ATS on the road while averaging just 94.2 points per game (21st) and allowing 93.4 per game defensively (seventh).

With Howard out for the remainder of the postseason, the Magic are led in scoring by forward Ryan Anderson (16.1 ppg). Four other players also averaged double figures for Orlando.

The Pacers went 15-16 ATS at home this season and a solid 17-16 ATS mark on the road while averaging 97.7 points per game this season (13th) and allowing just 94.4 points per game defensively (10th). Indiana put the clamps on its opponents in forcing them into 43.5 percent shooting from the field (6th). The Pacers had five players average double figures in scoring, led by Danny Granger’s 18.7 points per contest.

Here is a look at the key ATS and O/U trends for both ballclubs this season.

Orlando
Magic are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 vs. NBA Central.
Magic are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Magic last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 5-2 in Magic last 7 road games.

Indiana
Pacers are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games following an SU loss.
Pacers are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 playoff games as a favorite.
Under is 6-1 in Pacers last 7 playoff games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 5-2 in Pacers last 7 games as a favorite.

Key head-to-head trends
Magic are 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings.
Magic are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Indiana.
Under is 11-4 in the last 15 meetings in Indiana.

New York Knicks vs. Miami Heat
Playoffs Prediction & Odds
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The New York Knicks (36-30 SU, 36-30 ATS, 27-39 O/U) feel like they can hang with the Miami Heat (46-20 SU, 34-32 ATS, 25-39-2 O/U) – and their recent play – suggest they may be able to.

New York has won three straight and five of its last half-dozen games and seven of its L/9 games overall while Miami dropped three of its L/4 regular season games while mostly resting their overworked trio of stars.

Still, Miami won all three regular season meetings against the Knicks while covering the spread in each of the last two meetings.

The Knicks went 21-12 ATS at home this season but just 15-18 ATS on the road while averaging 97.8 points per game (11th) and allowing just 94.7 points per game defensively.

New York has played much better – particularly at the defensive end of the floor – since veteran head coach Mike Woodson took over for former coach Mike D’Antoni. To illustrate this point, the Knicks held seven of their final 10 opponents to less than 100 points.
The Knicks had five players average double figures in scoring this season, led by Carmelo Anthony’s 22.6 points per game.

Miami averaged 98.5 point per game this season (7th) while limiting their opponents to just 92.5 points per game defensively on 43.4 percent shooting from the field (fifth). The heat went 18-15 ATS at home this season but just 14-19 ATS on the road.

The Heat got 27.1 points per game from LeBron James, 22.1 ppg from Dwyane Wade and 18.0 ppg from Chris Bosh, but no other player managed to reach double figures in scoring for Miami this season.

Here is a look at the key ATS and O/U trends for both ballclubs this season.

New York
Knicks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Knicks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Knicks are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
Under is 6-0-1 in Knicks last 7 vs. a team with a winning SU record.
Under is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 playoff games as an underdog.
Under is 4-1 in Knicks last 5 vs. NBA Southeast.

Miami
Heat are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 playoff games as a favorite.
Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a favorite.
Under is 21-5 in Heat last 26 games as a home favorite.
Under is 21-5 in Heat last 26 home games.

Key head-to-head trends
Under is 3-0-1 in the last 4 meetings in Miami.
Under is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings.