Baseball Picks: June 30th 2012
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Pick: Washington Nationals -149
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The Nats have the advantage with ace Stephen Strasburg on the mound. Strasburg is 9-2 with an ERA of 2.60 this season and has won his last two starts versus the Braves. He is a dominant pitcher who averages 7.9 strikeouts per start. These are exactly the type of pitchers that have given the Braves problems. In fact, Atlanta is 0-8 at home this season versus starting pitchers who strike out 5 batters or more per start. The Braves have lost these eight games by an average score of 6.6 to 2.3.
While Atlanta doesn’t figure to get too much off Strasburg, Washington should be able to get to Minor. He’s just 3-6 with a 6.14 ERA this season. The Braves are 0-3 in his last 3 starts overall and 0-3 in his last 3 starts versus Washington. We’ll bet the Nationals.
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MLB Pick: Washington Nationals +107
The Nats have won 6 of their last 7 against the Braves, and they have the edge again this evening with Detwiler on the mound. Washington has won each of his 3 starts against division foes this season, and he has posted a low 1.76 ERA in those games. Going back to last year, the Nationals are 6-0 in his last 6 starts vs. the National League East and 10-4 in his last 14 starts vs. a team with a winning record. The Nats have also won his last 3 starts vs. the Braves. Atlanta’s Delgado is struggling to the tune of 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA over his last 3 starts. We’ll take Washington. -Jeff Alexander
MLB Pick: Colorado Rockies -144
The Padres have been a dead fade on the road where they are 12-25 on the season. They have also struggled against left-handed pitching, going just 7-19 against southpaw starters this year. The Padres are 6-24 in their last 30 road games vs. a left-handed starter. Colorado’s Jeff Francis has pitched very well. The Rockies are 3-0 in his last 3 starts, and he has allowed a total of only 3 runs in his last 2 starts. San Diego’s Jason Marquis can’t be trusted. We’re talking about a guy who’s 3-7 with an ERA of 5.67 and a WHIP of 1.707. Take the Rockies. -Dave Price
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Boston Red Sox -101 Betting Line (June 28th 2012)
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #923 Boston Red Sox over Seattle Mariners (10:10pm EST) Felix Hernandez is an eight-year veteran and shortly after he broke into the league, he was respected as one of the top pitchers in the game. He holds a career 3.25 ERA and has a Cy Young award on his mantle. He was also given the nickname King Felix due to his complete dominance on the mound. However, this year’s version of the King isn’t the same as what we’ve seen in the past. Sure his numbers are similar as he’s 5-5 with a 3.35 ERA and his strikeouts and walks are consistent. But Hernandez has lost a couple of miles per hour on his fastball and hasn’t been able to hit the corners like he used to. He also has had some back issues which forced him to be pushed back in the rotation a couple of weeks ago. Since his overall ERA is close to what people expect of him, I don’t think the betting market has made any adjustments yet. There is a good chance we’ll see some drop off in his numbers soon, so now is the time to take advantage before it’s too late. He’ll be up against it today as he’ll be facing a red hot Boston lineup. The Red Sox are fresh off a 10-4 thumping of the Blue Jays yesterday and have averaged 7.4 runs per game in their last 10 contests. They’re slowly starting to get healthier as the season goes on and that’s a scary prospect for the rest of the American League.
The Red Sox will send Franklin Morales to the mound today and he’s been a huge shot in the arm for the starting rotation. Marred by injuries, the BoSox were forced to give the reliever a temporary spot in the rotation. Not only has he led his team to wins in his first two starts, but he has dominated the opposition with a 17-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a solid 3.27 ERA. If he keeps this up, the left-hander might make this a permanent spot for him going forward. The Mariners aren’t very good against southpaws and they really struggle at home. In Safeco this season, the Mariners are batting only .204 and are averaging a putrid 3.0 runs per game. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Boston team.
It’s not often that the Mariners are favorites over the Red Sox. With King Felix not being his usual self, I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. Morales has proved that he’s more than capable of handling the duties as a starting pitcher and the Red Sox have a superior offense and bullpen. Take Boston with confidence here today.
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Prediction: Washington Nationals -148 betting line (June 27th 2012)
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The Key: We’ll fade the Rockies, who are 4-15 in their last 19 overall, 1-7 in their last 8 home games, 5-17 in their last 22 games as a home underdog and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home underdog of +110 to +150. The Nationals are 8-3 in their last 11 road games, 11-3 in their last 14 games as a favorite, 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Also, Zimmerman won both of his starts against Colorado last season in dominant fashion. Take the Nats.
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Los Angeles Angels vs. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Los Angeles Angels -125 odds (June 27th 2012)
Jerred Weaver is getting great odds here and the reason is he has a 4.21 ERA away, but take away his disaster start in Arlington vs. the best hitting team in the league and he has a 2.45 ERA on the road this year. He’s coming off a start in which he only pitched 78 pitches off the DL and was great. He’s got great numbers vs. the Orioles as they collectively have 124 AB .194 average and .601 OPS and without Nick Markakis in the line up their offense is sinking fast and so is Adam Jones. The Orioles are now 24th in OPS vs. RHP and they have a .166 average with 2.30 runs per 9 over their last 10 vs. RHP. In the month of June the Angels are #2 with a .824 OPS while the Orioles are 28th .652.
Now they do get their stud pitcher in Jason Hammel going tonight however Hammel has had success of late (1.57 ERA over last 3 starts) against National League teams – Phillies, Braves, and the Nationals. None of which possess a lineup like the Angels. -Freddy Wills
Baseball Predictions: June 27th 2012
San Diego Padres vs. Houston Astros
Pick: Houston Astros -113
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The Astros, who are 22-18 at home, are showing value at this price against a San Diego club that is 11-24 on the road. The Padres are 5-23 in their last 28 road games versus a team with a winning home record. The Astros are 6-1 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400 and 11-2 in their last 13 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150.
Richard has pitched well for San Diego of late but his road struggles on the season can’t be ignored. He’s 2-4 (2-6 on the ML) with an ERA of 4.88 in 6 road starts.
Houston’s Harrell has been a solid investment at home where he is 4-1 (4-2 on the ML) with an ERA of 2.48 in 6 starts.
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Baseball Picks: June 26th 2012
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Philadelphia -138
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The Philadelphia Phillies have a big edge on the mound tonight. Vance Worley is clearly a better starter than the washed up Erik Bedard in 2012. I’ll side with the Phillies in Game 2 of this series with the Pittsburgh Pirates Tuesday because of it.
Worley has posted a 2.78 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 11 starts this season, including a 1.35 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in his last three. Bedard is 4-7 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.417 WHIP in 14 starts this season, including 2-5 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.667 WHIP in seven road outings.
The Phillies also have the edge at the plate tonight. Philly is hitting .265 and scoring 4.3 runs/game this season, while Pittsburgh is batting .231 and putting up just 3.5 runs/game in 2012.
Worley is 13-2 against the money line vs. an NL team with an on base percentage .315 or worse over the last 2 seasons. The Pirates are 76-166 in their last 242 road games. The Phillies are 9-1 in their last 10 vs. National League Central. Philly is 36-16 in their last 52 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The Pirates are 6-20 in the last 26 meetings in Philadelphia. Bet the Phillies Tuesday.
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