Notre Dame vs. Navy
Point Spread: Notre Dame -14.5 Over/Under 53 (September 1st 2012)
Pick: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S EXPERT PICKS

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ATS Trends:
Midshipmen are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in September.
Fighting Irish are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Fighting Irish are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games in September.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 4-0 in Midshipmen last 4 games overall.
Under is 5-1 in Midshipmen last 6 neutral site games.
Under is 9-2 in Midshipmen last 11 games on grass.
Under is 7-2 in Midshipmen last 9 conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games in September.
Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last 5 games overall.
Under is 19-7-1 in Fighting Irish last 27 games on grass.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Navy.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Road team is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

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College Football Picks: September 1st 2012
Southern Miss vs. Nebraska
Prediction: Southern Miss +20.5
CLICK HERE FOR FREDDY WILLS’ EXPERT PICKS

I like Southern Miss in this spot despite losing their head coach and QB. They have a talented group of RB led by Desmond JOhnson and they run behind an experienced offensive line with 4 starters returning and that’s where they can score enough points to cover this large spread vs. Nebraska that was dead last in their conference in tackles for loss and rarely got in the backfield for sacks. They will be better, but not right away and opening up the season against an experienced and talented group won’t help them any. The strengths and weaknesses are in the right places for this game.

Don’t get me wrong Nebraska will have success running against Southern MIss 4-2-5 scheme, but not as much as people think. Martinez lacks a passing ability and the offensive line has 3 new starters. The Offensive line is nothing special as far as big time recruits and they won’t come together right away. Expect the usual offensive penalties and turnovers that plagued them in years past. Southern Miss has a few ball hawking players and I expect them to get edge pressure from Jamie Collins and play good defense in the red zone and limit the big plays. Bottom line there are not enough minutes for them to cover this spread with both teams taking on the run first approach.

2012 Arizona Cardinals Predictions
Odds to win Super Bowl XLVII: 50-1

The Cardinals finished winning five of their last six games, giving some hope for the future. QB Kevin Kolb missed seven games due to injuries, while John Skelton did bring the team back in several fourth-quarter rallies. The Cards picked up CB William Gay and S James Sanders to help their defense. They drafted WR Michael Floyd, who should become a nice compliment to Larry Fitzgerald. Now the question is who will throw them the ball?

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Offense:
The Cards finished 19th in total offense and 24th in rushing offense. The key is the play of Kolb, who threw for 1,955 yards with 9 TDs and 8 picks (81.1 passer rating). Skelton’s numbers weren’t as good (54.9%, 1,913 yds, 11 TDs, 14 Ints, 68.9 passer rating), but he found a way to win. He finished well but he started games ou poorly. Kolb is still the starter if he can stay healthy, but Skelton and rookie Ryan Lindley (6-3, 232), a sixth-rounder from San Diego State could be in the mix. Fitzgerald (6-3, 218) caught 80 passes for 1,411 yards and eight TDs. Imagine if he played for a legit quarterback? Floyd (6-3, 220) is another big receiver who can make tough catches. This could turn out to be one of the top combos in the NFC. TE Todd Heap (6-5, 245) caught 24 passes for 283 yards and appears to be on the decline at 32. He might have on quality year left. Jeff King (6-5, 260) was more reliable and is a better blocker. At running back, Beanie Wells (6-1, 229) rushed for 1,047 yards (4.3ypc) and 10 TDs. Last year’s second-round pick Ryan Williams is a big-play back who missed the season with a knee injury (suffered in preseason). The running game should improve big-time with both players in the fold. The offensive line has to pick it up. They did add veteran Adam Snyder (6-5, 325) to play right guard, while fourth-round pick Bobby Massie (6-6, 316) could step in right away to play right tackle. Levi Brown (6-5, 324) was re-signed to play left tackle as he played well down the stretch.

Defense:
The Cards finished tied for 18th overall in defense but were just 21st against the run. They run a 3-4 defense led by Ray Horton. Players were not on the same page until around midseason. DE Calais Campbell (6-8, 300) came up big with 8 sack and 70 tackles. He’s an elite player as is DT Darnell Dockett (6-3, 290), who added 50 tackles and 3.5 sacks. NT Dan Williams (6-2, 327) has to get in better shape to become more effective. At linebacker, ILB Daryl Washington (6-2, 230) led the team in tackles with 105, adding 2 picks. He’s become a very good player, while Paris Lenon (6-2, 240), could be pushed by Stewart Bradley (6-4, 255). At outside linebacker, 34-year old Clark Hagans (46 tackles) will be pushed by O’Brien Schofield (6-2, 231), who had 37 tackles and 4 sacks last year. Sam Acho (7 sacks, 41 tackles) had a very solid season as a rookie, taking over as a starter at midseason-and excelled. The secondary loses CB Richard Marshall (77 tackles, 2 picks) is gone to Miami in free agency. The other side, Patrick Peterson has a chance to be special, while Gay and Greg Toler, who missed part of the season due to a knee injury, battled for the other spot. At safety, SS Adrian Wilson (6-2, 230) is built like a linebacker but doesn’t make a lot of plays in the air. FS Kerry Rhodes (6-3, 212) missed half the season but has never really produced despite having the size and speed.

Special Teams:
The Cards improved from the previous season on special teams. K Jay Feely made 19 of 24 kicks and is solid. P Dave Zastudil performed well (45.2ypk) when he wasn’t injured. On returns, Peterson (15.9) was amazing on punt returns, taking four back for touchdowns.

Outlook:
The Cards should be improved slightly as long as they get decent quarterback play. They could even push San Francisco for first if they had some production from that position.

2012 Schedule:

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San Jose State vs. Stanford
Point Spread: Stanford -24 Over/Under 51 (August 31st 2012)
Pick: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S EXPERT PICKS

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ATS Trends:
Cardinal are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. WAC.
Cardinal are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Cardinal are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games.
Cardinal are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games on grass.
Cardinal are 35-16-1 ATS in their last 52 games overall.
Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 non-conference games.
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Spartans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Cardinal last 6 games on grass.
Over is 13-4 in Cardinal last 17 home games.
Over is 5-2 in Cardinal last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-2-1 in Spartans last 8 games on grass.

Head-to-Head Trends:
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Home team is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Spartans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Spartans are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Stanford.

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Boise State vs. Michigan State
Point Spread: Michigan State -7 Over/Under 46 (August 31st 2012)
Pick: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S EXPERT PICKS

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ATS Trends:
Spartans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Spartans are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Spartans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games.
Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Friday games.
Broncos are 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games.
Broncos are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games on grass.
Broncos are 26-12-1 ATS in their last 39 non-conference games.
Broncos are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.

Over/Under Trends:
Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 home games.
Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games on grass.
Over is 9-3 in Spartans last 12 non-conference games.
Over is 4-0 in Broncos last 4 road games.
Under is 4-1 in Broncos last 5 Friday games.
Over is 7-2 in Broncos last 9 games overall.
Under is 7-3-1 in Broncos last 11 non-conference games.

Head-to-Head Trends:
No Trends

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Tennessee vs. NC State
Point Spread: Tennessee -3 Over/Under 51 (August 31st 2012)
Pick: CLICK HERE FOR TODAY’S EXPERT PICKS

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ATS Trends:
Wolfpack are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in August.
Wolfpack are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 non-conference games.
Wolfpack are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf.
Volunteers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Volunteers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
Volunteers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Volunteers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
Volunteers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. ACC.

Over/Under Trends:
Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 games overall.
Under is 5-2 in Wolfpack last 7 non-conference games.
Over is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games on fieldturf.
Over is 8-2 in Volunteers last 10 non-conference games.
Under is 6-2-1 in Volunteers last 9 games overall.

Head-to-Head Trends:
No Trends

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2012 Utah State Aggies Predictions
Odds to win BCS Championship: 12-1 (Field)
(2011: 7-6 SU, 6-7 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 6, Def: 8).

The Aggies return six starters on offense but they have three O-lineman back. Senior Kerwynn Wililams (542yds) has been the return specialist (14ypr punts), but should be a star as a regular back as he averaged 6.7ypc last year. Soph. QB Chuckie Keeton (6-2, 198, 1200yds, 11, 2) and senior Adam Kennedy (6-5, 225, 972yds, 11, 4) are both capable starters. Their defense doesn’t make enough plays as they racked up just 15 turnovers last year. Senior FS McKade Brady (86tckls) is a former track star who leads the secondary. They don’t force many turnovers because they don’t get the quarterback.

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2012 Schedule:

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2012 Texas State Bobcats Predictions
Odds to win BCS Championship: 12-1 (Field)
(2011: 6-6 SU, 0-2 ATS). Ret. starters: (Off: 9, Def: 8).

The Bobcats are led by head coach Dennis Franchione, the former TCU and Texas A&M coach. At least Franchione should have a running attack in their first year in the WAC. RBs Terrence Franks (863yds, 9 TDs) and Marcus Curry (637yds) are quality backs. When they do throw it, senior QB Shaun Rutherford (1227, 12, 4) can manage the game and has good wheels (449yds). The O-line has just two starters back. This was a pure running team last year that converted just 33% of their third downs. LB Joplo Bartu (6-2, 220) and FS Xavier Daniels (77tckls) are the top players on defense. They do lose DE Michael Ebbitt (11.5sacks) and no returning Bobcat defender had more than four

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2012 Schedule:

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2012 Texas San Antonio Roadrunners Predictions
Odds to win BCS Championship: 12-1 (Field)
(2011: 4-6 SU). Ret. starters: (Off: 11, Def: 10.)

The Roadrunners are making their debut in the WAC and FBS transition. Former Miami (Fla.) coach Larry Coker has his work cut out for him. QB Eric Soza (6-1, 200) threw for 2,148yds with 14 TDs and 9 picks last year but against a sub-par schedule. He does have a potential star in WR Kam Jones (39 for 578yds). Soph. RB David Glasco is in the mix of average running backs. At least they return every offensive lineman. On defense, LB Steven Kurfehs (61 tckls) was a force last year. But there isn’t a whole lot there. Senior LB Brandon Reeves (5-10, 220) did lead the team with 69 tackles and added six sacks. Senior DE Marlon Smith (6-6, 225) led with 8 sacks. It’s going to be a long year for the Roadrunners though at least they have an easy non-conference schedule

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2012 Schedule:

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2012 San Jose State Spartans Predictions
Odds to win BCS Championship: 12-1 (Field)
(2011: 5-7 SU, 8-4 ATS). Ret. starters (Off: 7, Def: 6).

The Spartans have some talent on this team but it all starts at QB. Junior David Fales (6-3, 220) showed flashes in the spring and Michigan QB Tate Forcier decided to leave for the CFL. Fales will be the guy but will need better protection with three new starters on the O-line. At RB, senior De’Leon Eskridge (5-11, 215) could get the nod after transferring from Minnesota. They do have an oustanding WR corps returning, led by junior Noel Grigsby (5-11, 175), who caught 89 passes for 886 yards last year. TE Ryan Otten (6-5, 245) is one of the premier tight ends in the nation, after grabbing 52 receptions for 739 yards and 5 TDs in 2011. On defense, they add star DE Travis Johnson (6-3, 244), a firstteam all-WAC selection who led the team in sacks with 9.5 and recorded 73 tackles. Junior LB Keith Smith (6-1, 229) led the team in tackles last year with 104. The secondary loses it anchor in SS Duke Ihenacho, but does return S James Orth (78 tckls)

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2012 Schedule:

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