Arena Football Betting Picks: Philadelphia vs. Dallas
Arena Football Picks, Free Sports Picks April 29th, 2008Ted Sevransky is a Professional Sports Handicapper. Click Here to Buy His Expert Arena Football Betting Picks
When the undefeated Patriots met the undefeated Colts in Week 9 of the 2007 NFL season, it was hyped as the biggest NFL regular season game ever. And frankly, the hype was well deserved with two marquee franchises, the best two quarterbacks in the league, and both teams outclassing the rest of the league (at the time).
I don’t make many comparisons between the NFL and Arena Football, but this is one time where comparisons make perfect sense. When the Dallas Desperados travel to Philadelphia to take on the Soul, Monday Night in an ESPN2 showdown, it will mark the first time in 22 years of the AFL in which two undefeated teams will meet this late in the season (ironically, also in Week 9).
Oddsmakers have Philadelphia set as a 5 1/2-point favorite with the total at 104 1/2.
Philadelphia has been truly special this season on both sides of the football, right from the opening weekend of action. The Soul have won seven of their eight previous games by eight points or more. In the only game that they didn’t dominate from start to finish, Philly rallied from 26 points down on the road against the defending Arena Bowl champs San Jose to earn a one point victory. And the Soul haven’t just been feasting on patsies either, with double digit victories over Orlando, Chicago and New York, three rock solid playoff caliber teams from their own conference.
The Soul’s 66 points per game average leads the league by a wide margin. Even more impressively, Philly has managed to put up these impressive numbers despite suffering an injury to their starting quarterback, Tony Graziani. Graziani’s backup, Matt D’Orazio has been nothing short of stellar, entering Monday Night’s game with the AFL’s second best QB rating, while Graziani ranks third.
Graziani returned last weekend against Columbus only to tweak his injured knee. D’Orazio came on in relief and led the Soul to victory yet again. It looks as if Graziani will be healthy enough to start again this week, but there’s absolutely no drop-off in Philly’s offense if he can’t finish the game for whatever reason. The two quarterbacks split reps in practice this week.
Dallas, too, has suffered through a serious quarterback injury. QB Clint Dolezel, the AFL’s career leader in touchdown passes, got hurt in Week 1, replaced in the starting lineup by Chris Sanders. There was a clear drop-off offensively for the Desperados with their backup QB in the lineup, but Dallas was able to remain undefeated by virtue of their stellar defense, allowing a league low 42 points per game.
Dolezel is 100% healthy now, leading Dallas to victories over Cleveland and New Orleans since returning. With a strong performance here, Dolezel will become the AFL’s all time leading passer – he’s thrown for more than 42,000 yards in his 13 year career.
Dallas has won 15 consecutive regular season games dating back to last year’s remarkable 15-1 season. They’ve only been underdogs twice during that span: a three point win at Philly last year as one point dogs, and a three point win at San Jose this year as four point dogs. Clearly, this veteran team has the capacity to beat quality foes on the road in hostile environments.
Philadelphia normally plays their games at the Wachovia Center, home of the Flyers and 76ers. With the Flyers in action for a home playoff game on Monday Night, the game has been moved to the legendary Spectrum. Quotes from the Dallas players and staff indicate that Dallas is not enamored with the change of venue.
Head coach Will McClay: “The Spectrum is one of those places that set the stage for the Broad Street Brawl. You go in there and it’s an older place that has a lot of history to it. The ceiling is low and it gets loud in there. To us and what we know about Philadelphia, that place is Philadelphia. It’s grimy and one of those loud places that is going to be tough to play in.” Clint Dolezel, speaking tongue in cheek: “I think its cheating, first of all. It’s kind of like going into New York or some of the other stadiums where they funnel in all of that noise.”
Unfortunately, I’m not going to be able to release a play for my AFL clients in this Monday Night battle. Basically, I’m unwilling to bet against either one of these squads, without a doubt, the two best teams in the league. Philly scored a touchdown on every single meaningful possession last week despite playing both quarterbacks, truly an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Dallas hasn’t been as pretty to watch as Philadelphia this year, but the Desperados defense is the best in the league, capable of stopping even the most potent attack. That makes this game very difficult to call, either side or total. Great game to watch; tough game to bet on…




