New York Dragons -1.5
Sat Jun 7 ‘08 7:00p - Courtesy of Ted Sevransky
New Orleans is getting far too much credit from the linesmakers for a misleading home victory over the only team in the entire league that has no hope of making the playoffs. Yes, the VooDoo beat Columbus by three touchdowns at home last week, where they are 6-1 this season. But the VooDoo and the Destroyers both scored nine touchdowns on eleven meaningful drives. The difference in the game were a pair of net recoveries on kickoffs for New Orleans (the ultimate ‘lucky’ play) and an interception return for touchdown with no time left on the clock in the first half. New Orleans is still only 1-3 SU in their last four games, and they are just 2-4 SU on the highway, yet they are priced in a pointspread range where they’ll likely need a straight up win to earn a pointspread cover here. Click Here for Arena Football Odds

The New York Dragons are trending in the opposite direction right now. Since their 1-4 start, the Dragons are 6-2 SU. Their tremendous defense has held opponents under 50 points in seven of their last nine ballgames. Meanwhile, Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Garcia guided the team to ten touchdowns and a field goal on their eleven meaningful possessions last week. In fact, this offense has averaged 62 points per game in their last four home games, scoring at least 56 each time. Let’s take advantage of yet another bad pointspread in a season full of bad pointspreads from the linesmakers with a play on the Dragons as short home favorites here. Take New York. Current Line: NY -1.5, reduce wager size to half a unit at -3 or higher.

Philadelphia Soul +4.0 (-110)
Sat Jun 7 ‘08 8:00p - Courtesy of Mike Rose
Philadelphia cost AFL bettors in a big way its last time out when it fell at home to the Kansas City Brigade, 54-47, as 17-point home favorites. The shocking loss was their third in their last four overall games, but they played with a number of their superstars sidelined on both sides of the ball during that stretch. Last weeks “Bye” allowed them to lick their wounds and heal up for this crucial Eastern Division clash. QB Tony Graziani, DB Mike Brown, LB Rod Davis, and DL Bryan Save will all be back for this crucial game at Dallas this Saturday night. Philly has won four of its six road games SU and gone 3-3 ATS.

The Desperados seem to have found its stride after picking up decisive wins at both Orlando and Cleveland the last two weeks. The Desperados raised their record to an AFL-best 11-2 on the arm of QB Clint Dolezel, who took advantage of good protection to complete 28-of-38 passes for 252 yards and eight touchdowns. The win allowed Dallas to clinch its third straight playoff appearance. After severely costing AFL bettors from late March to mid May, Dallas secured pointspread victories in each of the last two weeks to claw one game 0ver .500 at 7-6 ATS. They currently sit atop the Eastern Division one game ahead of Philadelphia, but the Soul owns the tiebreaker after they mauled the Desperados at home back in Week 9.

This will be the 10th match-up between these division rivals in the series’ history, and the second this season. Philadelphia embarrassed the Desperados back in Week 9 at home in a game that was televised live on ESPN2 HD. The 57-28 final still doesn’t reflect how dominant Philly was even though they won the game by 29-points and crushed the 4.5-point spread. The 85 combined points saw the under cash with relative ease. Dallas holds 5-4 SU and ATS advantages throughout their first nine battles, and they’re 3-1 SU and ATS when they’ve welcomed the Soul to Dallas.
Overall, this series has been higher scoring with the over cashing in six of the nine games, but the defenses have stepped up of late to allow the under to go 2-1 ATS their L/3 meetings.

The Despo’s certainly look to be the choice in this spot after they were bet from one-point pups at the open to four-point favorites. They get to host the Soul off their “Bye” exactly like Philly did Dallas back in Week 9. Even though the Soul’s scuffled of late, I believe them to be the best team in the Eastern Division if not the entire league. They’ll be playing with a full deck for the first time in a month, and I’m still not sold on Dallas’ mental capacity after they’ve failed in this scenario so many times over the years. If DB Eddie Moten snags another Dolezel pass, look out. Dolezel folded like a cheap suit in their Week 9 battle after Moten made him look like a chump, and Clint has already proven to me that he’s a crybaby and quitter when things don’t go his way. It’s risky after what Philly did to this club earlier this season, but grab the points with the team I believe grades higher in mental capacity. Click Here for Arena Football Picks