2008 Arena Football Weekend Playoff Previews
Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional AFL Football Handicapper, Featured on Touthouse.com
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Underdogs have ruled the roost in the Arena Football League playoffs in recent years, and the Wild Card weekend of the playoffs in 2008 confirmed the prevailing current trend. In 2006, the Chicago Rush were road underdogs in four straight playoff games on their way to winning the Arena Bowl. Last year, another regular season also-ran got hot in the playoffs, as 7-9 Columbus pulled off three consecutive road upsets before finally falling short in the Arena Bowl against San Jose. 
 
This past week, we saw road underdogs go 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU in the opening round of the playoffs. Will we see more of the same this week? The betting marketplace doesn’t seem to think so. All four home teams are favored by more than a touchdown following their bye week here in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, with the four road underdogs still searching for respect from bettors. Let’s break down the games one by one, focusing on the key pointspread and totals issues for each squad. Just like last weekend, all four games will be nationally televised on ESPN or ESPN2.
 
Colorado Crush @ San Jose Sabercats (SJ -11, O/U 111.5)
Saturday, July 5th - Arena Football Odds
Colorado has some real momentum right now, winning and covering three straight, including two strong performances on the road. The Crush have a solid recent history of postseason success. John Elway’s squad won the Arena Bowl with John Dutton at QB and Mike Dailey as head coach as recently as 2005. Last year, the Crush went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs, winning outright at Kansas City and losing in spread covering fashion at the eventual champs San Jose. And despite a rash of injuries at wide receiver, the Crush defense appears to be good enough to give them a chance in this game as well.
 
San Jose dominated the lone regular season meeting between these two teams, winning 59-42 while averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt in sharp contrast to the Crush’s 5.9 yards per attempt.  And the Sabercats defense remains an elite level unit, returning every starter from last year’s Arena Bowl championship team. Few home fields in the AFL really matter, but San Jose enjoys a tremendous advantage at the HP Pavilion, 16-2 SU (12-6 ATS) over the past two seasons. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Mark Grieb led the league with 100 touchdown passes this season while ranking third in the AFL in completion percentage. 
 
New York Dragons @ Philadelphia Soul (Philly -9.5, O/U 110) - Saturday, July 5th
New York has been a pointspread machine since March, covering the pointspread at a 9-3-1 clip in their last thirteen games. The Dragons scored touchdowns on eleven consecutive drives against an elite level defense in their upset win at Dallas last week, with quarterback Aaron Garcia showing no ill effects from the hard hit that he took against Philly in his regular season finale. Garcia has Hall of Fame credentials, but he’s never guided his team to the Arena Bowl. The Dragons enjoyed tremendous special teams play in their win over the Desperados as well. Kicker Steve Azar had a pair of onside kicks recovered by New York, while going a perfect 11-11 on extra point tries and booting three touchbacks.
 
On paper, Philadelphia looks like the team to beat in this year’s playoffs. The Soul cruised through the regular season with an AFL best 13-3 record, thanks to the play of the league’s top rated quarterback, Matt D’Orazio, who has filled in admirably for the injured Tony Graziani for most of the season. D’Orazio guided Chicago to an Arena Bowl title two years ago. It’s surely worth noting that the Soul’s three losses can all be easily explained away. Their loss to Cleveland came in a major flat spot on a short week following their biggest game of the year against Dallas. Their loss to Georgia was an aberration – the Soul led by three scores in the fourth quarter but collapsed in the final few minutes. And their loss to KC as a 17 point favorite was a matter of a disinterested team suffering through some mid-season injuries. The Soul are healthy now, and they beat New York 59-30 and 63-42 in their two regular season meetings.
 
Grand Rapids Rampage @ Chicago Rush (Chicago -9.5, O/U 113) - Sunday, July 6th
Grand Rapids has the ‘feel’ of a team like Columbus from last year, who came out of nowhere to reach the Arena Bowl. The Rampage were not good for most of the regular season, losing eight out of nine during one particularly ugly mid-season stretch. But the Rampage played their best football when it counted the most, reeling off three consecutive wins to close out the regular season, then winning outright as a road underdog at Arizona last week in a rare stellar defensive effort (a huge goal line stand essentially winning the game) from a stop unit that allowed 59+ on eleven different occasions in the 16 game regular season. First year head coach Steve Thonn and first year starting quarterback James MacPherson seem to be clicking together right now as Grand Rapids has averaged more than 70 points per game during their current four game winning streak.
 
Chicago looked like the class of the American Conference for much of the season, but the Rush really tailed off late.  First year starter Russ Michna finished fourth in the league in quarterback efficiency, but the offense was sluggish down the stretch as the Rush were held to 52 points or less four times in their final five games. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they lost All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo to a season ending injury prior to Week 16.  Chicago went 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home this year, but they didn’t have an easy time in their most recent home meeting with the Rampage, needing a huge fourth quarter rally to beat Grand Rapids by a single field goal.
 
Cleveland Gladiators @ Georgia Force (Georgia -7.5, O/U 114) - Monday, July 7th
The Gladiators didn’t look like a team that hadn’t made the playoffs since 2003 in their opening round win over Orlando, showing great poise following a rough start to pull out the three point victory. The Gladiators have not been the most consistent team in the AFL this year (to put it mildly) – they haven’t won back-2-back games since mid-May. This offense is loaded. Quarterback Raymond Philyaw finished the regular season as the #2 rated quarterback in the AFL. Wide receiver Otis Amey made the All-AFL squad with 50 touchdown receptions while Robert Redd led the team in receiving yards and fullback Marlon Jackson also earned All-AFL honors. But the Gladiators defense has been a problem area all season, and could be a problem again here.
 
Georgia has not been a ‘blowout’ team this year, with half of their ten wins coming by a touchdown or less.  In six of those ten wins, Georgia found themselves tied or trailing in the fourth quarter, a testament to the coaching acumen of Doug Plank (my choice for AFL Coach of the Year honors) and the fortitude of quarterback Chris Griesen, who ranked among the league’s elite signal callers for the second consecutive season.  Georgia went 14-2 during the regular season last year, then blew out Philadelphia in their first playoff game, but were knocked off at home by the upstart Destroyers in the National Conference Championship Game right here at Phillips Arena. A solid win here should wipe some of the bad taste from that defeat away, and put the Force in position to return to the Arena Bowl for the first time since 2005.