Houston Astros vs. San Diego Padres u7.5 (-125) - Thu July 2nd 2009 3:35p
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The Under is now on a 12-2-1 run in the last 15 Houston Astros games after the first three games of this four-game series vs. the San Diego Padres all went Under, and given that Petco Park is the most pitcher-friendly stadium in baseball, look for more of the same tonight.

Granted, it took a minor miracle for the game last night to stay Under 8.5, as Houston led 6-1 in the middle of the fourth inning, but remember that shoddy defense was a contributing factor. Only three of those early runs was earned, and the fact that the teams needed that help to score is an indication of how difficult it is to score here. In fact, all games at Petco this year have averaged on 7.56 total runs combined.

Padres starter Kevin Correia has caught fire lately, as he has now recorded five consecutive Quality Starts. More impressive is the fact that this streak is not solely a function of pitching in this stadium, as two of those starts came on the road. It is also worth noting that Correia already has a Quality Start in his only start vs. the Astros this season, and that outing came at Houston in a more hitter-friendly stadium.

The Astros counter with Wandy Rodriguez, who is 6-6 but with a very good 3.35 ERA. Sure, Wandy has continued his annoying habit of pitching extremely well at home and being very mediocre on the road, but he did toss a gem in his last road start, allowing only one run an two hits in seven innings in a 4-1 Houston victory vs. the Minnesota Twins at the Metrodome. Rodriguez will also be aided by that fact that San Diego is batting .199 vs. southpaws at home.

This may look like a low total at first glance, but the Under is now 6-1 in the last seven head-to-head meetings in San Diego with five of those games producing a total runs output of seven or less.

MLB Free Pick: Astros, Padres Under 7.5 (-125)