Florida Marlins vs. Tampa Bay Rays u8.0 (-110) – Fri Jun 26 ’09 7:35p
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Josh Johnson of the Florida Marlins has quietly been one of the best pitchers in baseball, while James Shields of the Tampa Bay Rays has always pitched well at home, so do not expect much scoring at The Trop tonight.

Johnson is 7-1 with an excellent 2.66 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 105 innings, and just like many other pitchers that have undergone the procedure, he actually looks stronger and has more velocity after his Tommy John surgery. You will be hard pressed to find a more consistent starter than Johnson, as he has allowed three runs or less in 14 of his 15 starts this season and he is among the leaders in the Major Leagues with his 13 Quality Starts.

Shields has pitched well at home ever since he became a fixture in the Rays rotation, and this year is no exception. He is 4-2 with a 3.07 ERA here, as he has allowed three earned runs or less in six of his last seven home starts, and he allowed only four runs on the lone non-quality outing. He is also in great current form, with four Quality Starts in his last five outings after allowing just one run on three hits in seven innings vs. the New York Mets on Saturday.

Finally, the Under is 10-4 in all Shields starts this year, and given the quality of his mound opponent tonight, we look for that trend to continue.

MLB Free Pick: Marlins, Rays Under 8 (-110)