Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers u9.5 (-120 odds)
Wed September 30th 2009 7:05p
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The Detroit Tigers maintained their two-game lead in the American League Central by gaining a split in their doubleheader with the Minnesota Twins yesterday, and with tensions running high, we look for a low scoring affair in Game 3 of this series tonight.

Carl Pavano has been a key acquisition by the Twins, as he has improved his record to 13-11 on the season after coming over from the sad-sack Cleveland Indians. He has now posted seven Quality Starts in ten outings in a Twins uniform, and he has been arguably their best starting pitcher during their playoff push.

What also makes Pavano a key acquisition is his uncanny success vs. the Tigers. Pavano has faced Detroit five times this year as a member of both the Twins and the Tribe, and he is a perfect five for five in Quality Starts against them. In fact, he has yet to allow more than two runs in any start against the Tigers this season while going at least seven innings on every occasion.

Now Detroit is going with young Eddie Bonine in this pivotal contest, and even though Bonine is pitching the biggest game of his life, he has shown no butterflies while being thrust into a Major League pennant race since his September call-up. He allowed only three runs in his first September start, and then his last outing was one of the best of his brief career, as he did not allow an earned run (two unearned) in 6.2 innings vs. the Chicago White Sox.

If Pavano continues his mastery of the Tigers as we expect, we see no reason why Bonine cannot pitch well enough here to keep this game Under the total.

MLB Free Pick: Twins, Tigers Under 9.5 (-120)

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