New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (120) – Wed Jun 10 ’09 7:10p
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It is not too often that we would recommend playing a Run Line favorite against the New York Mets at home, but we actually see value in this play with Cole Hamels on the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies.

Now the reining World Series MVP has a high 4.40 ERA this season, but keep in mind that he got off to an awful start. He has now allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts however, allowing two runs or less in six of those outings. He can take advantage of a Mets lineup here that is struggling with left-handed pitching right now, batting a microscopic .215 vs. southpaws over the last 10 games.

Meanwhile, Mike Pelfrey has been annoyingly erratic for the Mets, and the net result has been a bad 4.85 ERA and 1.50 WHIP despite a 4-2 record. It appeared that Pelfrey had turned a corner, but he then regressed terribly vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates in his last outing, when he was lit up for nine runs on nine hits and four walks in only 3.2 innings of work. He is facing a Philadelphia lineup that is hitting a very respectable .275 vs. right-handers in the last 10 games.

We feel that this is enough of a starting pitching mismatch to justify a Run Line play on the Phillies at decent odds.

MLB Free Pick: Phillies -1.5 (+120)

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