Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Free Pick: Boston Red Sox +147 odds (September 22nd 2009)
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The Royals have been playing some pretty good baseball this month and they put ace Zach Greinke on the hill tonight, but they are being grossly overvalued in my opinion. Boston has won 9 of the last 12 meetings in this matchup and it will be looking to avenge yesterday’s loss. While Greinke has been dominant at home this season, he rarely gets adequate run support and the Royals are just 8-7 in his home starts because of it. Plus, Greinke is 0-2 lifetime against the Red Sox. Paul Byrd has struggled in his few starts for Boston this season, but he has slowly improved over his last 2, which were both Boston wins. In fact, the Red Sox are 5-0 in Byrd’s last 5 starts as an underdog and 5-1 in his last 6 starts period. The Red Sox are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a loss and a strong 21-6 in their last 27 games vs. a right-handed starter. The Royals are just 2-6 in Greinke’s last 8 home starts, 0-4 in his last 4 starts vs. the American League East, and 0-4 in his last 4 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. I’ll back the Red Sox showing solid underdog value for 1 unit here.

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