St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds u9.5 (-110) – Fri July 3rd 2009 7:10p
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Joel Pineiro of the St. Louis Cardinals has been pitching well all season with very little to show for it, but the key to this Under could very well be Homer Bailey of the Cincinnati Reds.

Bailey was a highly regarded prospect in the Cincinnati system, and he showed some flashes of brilliance when he was first called two years ago. However, he regressed badly last season and found himself back in the minors until finally being recalled again to take his first 2009 Major League start on May 23, when he was bombed again.

However, after a brief return to the minors, he looked decent in his second start upon his recall vs. the Cleveland Indians last week, when he got the win while allowing three runs on only three hits in five innings. Now, he has the advantage of facing a struggling St. Louis offense that is averaging just 2.30 runs per game over the last 10 games while batting a horrific .213 as a team during this time.

As for Pineiro, he is probably the most unfortunate 6-9 pitcher in baseball, given his 3.44 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. In fact, Pineiro has now allowed three earned runs or less in seven of his last eight starts, and yet he has gotten so little support for the quite Cardinal bats that they are only 2-6 as a team in those games. Naturally, that has made him a great Under pitcher, as it is 10-4-1 in all of his starts this year.

Tonight could be more of the same, especially if Bailey builds on his improved start the last time out, making for yet another Under.

MLB Free Pick: Cardinals, Reds Under 9.5 (-110)

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