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Monday night feature heads to the Metrodome, where the Vikings (7-6) battle the ‘hibernating’ Bears (5-8). Along with Green Bay (7-1 SU/ATS run), Minnesota is the hottest team in the NFC right now, on a 4-0 SU/ATS run and dominating opponents since they suffered a shutout loss at Green Bay November 11th. The ‘Fairway Fundamentals’ of running the football and stopping the run have really taken hold the past month for the Vikings and in a majority of NFL contests. Against the 49ers, Lions, NY Giants and Raiders, Minnesota ran the ball for 117, 216, 127 and 228 yards. In those contests, the Vikings run defense allowed just 73, 23, 75 and 61 yards. Minnesota leads the NFL in rushing by a large margin with 172 ypg and a whopping 5.5 yards-per-rush led by Rookie-of-the-Year Adrian Peterson (1200/6.1 ypr/11 TD’s) and his capable sidekick Chester Taylor (716/5.3 ypr/7 TD’s). Peterson’s yards-per-rush average of 6.1 is the highest ever for a running back with at least 150 carries, and the Vikings have a league-best 17 runs of 20 or more yards.

Meanwhile, the Bears run the football for a league-worst 3.2 ypr and a measly 82 ypg led now by the ‘other’ Adrian Peterson in Chicago’s backfield. The Bears defensive front is a bit banged up with Tommy Harris (knee) and Darwin Walker (ankle) playing at less than full strength, and other reserves out for the season. Pro Bowl cornerback Nathan Vasher (groin) will miss the Monday night contest, and has been out for 10 games this season. Despite the injuries, the Bears run defense appeared stronger last week in defeat to the Redskins while holding them to just 31 yards rushing. However, the two weeks prior saw the Bears get ‘run over’ by the NY Giants for 175 yards and Denver went for 138 on the ground. And the loss at home to the Giants both SU and ATS really tells the story about this Bears team. Chicago did not turn the ball over, while the Giants suffered four turnovers and somehow came out on top. Penalties hurt the Bears that day as they blew a 16-7 fourth quarter lead, however it takes a bad football team to lose a game when they have a 4-0 turnover advantage.

So how will the Bears slow down the Vikings running attack? They won’t, so it will be up to Chicago to create some turnovers and big special team’s plays while turning the offense loose with Kyle Orton at quarterback. If you like the Vikings and believe they will dominate the running game, you’re in a good position to win your bet tonight. You see, teams that out-rush their opponent by 30 or more yards have covered the pointspread at a 76% clip the past six years, including over 81% this season. However, know that the Vikings are laying a full touchdown more than they were to the Detroit Lions just two weeks ago, and all things considered, I believe the Bears and Lions are near equal teams despite Detroit’s two victories over Chicago this season. Also, the Vikings were a 4’-point underdog to the Bears back in October, and are now laying over 10 points. While we cashed an ‘easy’ ticket that day when the Vikings dominated up front with 311 yards rushing led by Peterson’s 224 yards and three TD’s, it should be noted that Chicago suffered four turnovers against the Vikings and are minus (-6) for the season. The opportunistic Vikings defense has led the team to a plus (+10) turnover margin while scoring a league-best six touchdowns off INT returns.

Now, you must factor in that Bears 3rd-year quarterback Kyle Orton takes his first snap of the season tonight and makes his first start in nearly two years. He is somewhat of an unknown for this contest, and backing the Bears with a bet might be a concern knowing they will have little success running the football. However, there will be some ‘no-huddle’ in the game plan, despite Orton’s lack of playing time. Orton ran a no-huddle, fast-paced spread offense very effectively his senior season at Purdue. If the Chicago coaches are smart, they’ll let Orton go ‘mobile’ and attack the Vikings weakness with plenty of pace and no-huddle plays. After blowing a lead and the game against the Giants two weeks ago, coach Lovie Smith was concerned that the no-huddle game-plan ‘overtaxed’ the conditioning of the Bears offense and forced the defense to be on the field more quickly without rest. Last week in defeat at Washington, Chicago quarterbacks Grossman and Griese completed 13 of 16 passes in the ‘no-huddle’ attack, compared to 16 of 35 without the no-huddle. If the no-huddle offense is run effectively, the running game is used as a key component in the spread attack, because the opponent’s defense usually has a nickel package with five defensive backs on the field. That should open up some running lanes, but the Bears could only manage 21 yards rushing on eight attempts from the no-huddle against Washington. Still, I believe offensive coordinator Ron Turner will give Orton some reigns and an opportunity to ‘run’ with the no-huddle spread attack. He’ll have some scripted plays, and as long as he minimizes mistakes, I believe Orton can lead the Bears offense to some scores despite some ‘tough sledding’ running the ball.

The Vikings need this game and match-up quite well against Chicago. While division battles can bring out the best in a ‘Dog, I don’t see the ‘cubby’ Bears bringing enough clout to knock off the Vikings. Quarterback Tarvaris Jackson has begun to digest the finer points of the West Coast offense while minimizing his mistakes the past four games. The offense has operated efficiently and effectively after failing to score more than 17 points in five of their first seven games. Jackson has removed the ‘clueless’ tag and been more on ‘cue’ while operating behind his big, solid offensive line and letting the running game set him up for success through the air (61/83 for 673 yds, 4 TD/2INT the past four games, 73% completions and 8.1 ypp attempt). Minnesota should move the ball with relative ease against a Bears defense that has allowed at least 345 yards and over 21 points in each of their last four contests. The only thing that slows the Vikings is self-inflicted penalties and turnovers. However, even with a victory over the Bears, next week’s big Sunday night battle with Washington will likely determine who gains a wild card birth. Meanwhile, Chicago’s biggest rival is on deck with a home game against Green Bay.

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