Bet on the Coin Toss – 2008 Superbowl XLII 42 Coin Toss Betting
Thought you couldn’t handicap the coin toss? Hmmm…we”ll see about that.
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BetUS NFL Betting Props
Super Bowl — February 3
EXACT COIN TOSS OUTCOME
New York Giants – Heads +240
New York Giants – Tails +240
New England Patriots – Heads +240
New England Patriots – Tails +240
TEAM TO WIN THE COIN TOSS
New York Giants -120
New England Patriots -120
TEAM TO RECEIVE OPENING KICKOFF
New York Giants -110
New England Patriots -110
We talk a lot about teams and their pointspread records at home, on the road, as a favorite, as a dog, on artificial turf, on grass. But how many people handicap the one thing that seems to get mentioned every time a Super Bowl is played – the big novelty that by this time seems to be OVER-played so much that it’s no longer a novelty at all? I’m speaking, of course, about the coin toss.
You might think it’s as simple as “heads” or “tails” and it’s basically a 50-50 proposition, right? Well, I won’t sit here and tell you that you’re wrong about that; because the toss of a coin is an “independent trial” and has no bearing on any coin tosses that come before it or after it, there is always an equal chance that either heads or tails will come up when the coin lands.
Or is there?
I was talking with a professional poker player a couple of years ago, and he was telling me that in the Super Bowl between the Patriots and Eagles, he did a little research and found out that there was actually a weight bias in the coin the NFL was using for the pre-game ceremony at midfield, and bet accordingly.
Well, that may be just a colorful story for conversation, but let me give some hard data about the outcomes of this pre-game ritual through Super Bowl history:
To start off with, the team that wins the coin toss has always received the ball, because you can’t defer to the second half in the NFL.
So what else? Well, let;s take a look at the NFL Super Bowl betting trends as they relate to THE COIN TOSS!
In the 41 Super Bowls, “heads” has been called 21 times, with “tails” being called 20 times.
In the 41 Super Bowls, “tails” has been the result 21 times, with “heads” coming up 20 times.
In 18 of the 41 Super Bowls, the team who won the coin toss also won the game (43.9%).
In 22 of the 41 Super Bowls, the team who made the heads-tails call won the toss (53.7%).
In 11 of the 41 Super Bowls, the team that made the call won the toss and won the game. (26.8%). However, this has happened only once in the last ten years.
The NFC, oddly enough, has won TEN straight coin tosses, and 13 of the last 14.
Overall, the NFL/NFC has won 27 coin tosses, compared to just 14 for the AFL/AFC.
Now, to get a little more sophisticated, let’s talk pointspread:
The coin toss winner has a record of 19-20 against the spread, with two pushes.
The coin toss winner has covered three of the last five Super Bowls, but was 0-5-2 ATS before that.
The coin toss winner once covered six straight Super Bowls, from VII through XII.
Okay, so now you have the FULL story.
All that having been said, what this comes out to is a New York Giants win (of the toss, at least), based on the current bias toward NFC teams, and maybe a ‘heads” result, based on evening things out a bit.
Well, if you believe in that kind of thing.
(By the way, you can couple this with the prop in “Team To Receive the Opening Kickoff,” because the team that wins the toss is required to receive)
JAY’S PLAYS: GIANTS (-110) ** to receive opening kickoff
GIANTS-HEADS (+240) ** as exact result
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