Francis Doyle, senior betting analyst for Sports Interaction, discusses where the money’s been going  after the first week’s betting on Super Bowl XLII.

It’s fairly clear now, as we approach the turn, that the initial line was set too high for Super Bowl XLII.

Vegas odds and online odds were all favoring the New England Patriots by two touchdowns. The idea was that there was going to be a lot of square money going on the Patriots initially, and we wanted to buttress ourselves a little before the sharpies started playing the percentages and taking the Giants. The same way a squirrel stores nuts for the winter, you know?

But what happened, of course, was that we outsmarted ourselves. It’s like trying to figure out a double-bluff – after a while you just end up chasing your own tail, and you’d have been better off seeing things simply for the start.

That’s what happened here. The squares ignored the Patriots completely, and have been pounding the Giants all week. Pounding them. We opened with the Patriots -13, one point off Vegas, and we’ve moved in a point and a half in just five days.

The question is, is the popular play the smart play? Well, who can ever tell? I was really impressed by the Giants in Lambeau on Sunday night, especially the way they stuffed the Packer running game, making Favre revert to type and force the game. But then, the Patriots have so many options on offense it’s nearly unfair, and Belichick has an extra week to scheme. Not only that, but the Patriots made a point of whipping teams at the start of the season, and then stopped. What if they’ve been saving an extra-big can of whup-ass for a really special occasion? Randy Moss gets away twice and the line is covered right here. That’s how dangerous Moss is.

Whatever happens, it’s going to be a great Super Bowl. We’re doing a lot of business at Sports Interaction and we’re really enjoying the buzz of it. It’s the last game ‘til August, after all – you have to make the most of it.