Bob Akmens Free Pick: San Francisco Giants (-125) - Click Here to Buy Bob Akmens Picks
Tue May 13 ‘08 10:15p - Click Here For MLB Odds
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.

The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows (ATS = against-the-spread) –

Again, we have a line that does not accurately reflect reality.

While Houston has the better overall record, the ‘Stros and the Giants have identical .500 records where they are – away and home.

And I guarantee you this – as this season moves on, Houston’s road record will be appreciably lower than .500 and the Giants home-record should be decently above .500. Why? Because that’s the norm. Neither of these teams is exceptional.

Quite the contrary – each is very mediocre – which, by its definition, means middle-of-the-road. And that means each should be +/- some percentage points around .500 – overall, that is.

Face it – almost all people are mediocre. That’s not a knock – that just a fact. It implies that long term, we’re all going to be around .500 in win-lose situations. Economists have a term for this: regression to the mean. That mean being .500.

But mediocre teams like this generally may play .100-.150 points (or more) better at home than on the road. So, I look for both the Astros and the Giants to start regressing to their own home-away means which historically would occur with these sorts of teams.

So, why would I say the line here doesn’t reflect reality?

The starting pitchers. Brandon Backe is a terrible road pitcher. The Astros are 2-8 in his last 10 starts away from home. And Matt Cain? He’s 4-2 his last 6 decisions at home – with an other-worldly (these days, at least) ERA of 2.24 in those affairs.

All the more reason to pick SF here.

Go with the GIANTS as a short -125 favorite in this 10:15 PM ET matchup

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