Free MLB Pick: Atlanta Braves (-140)
Wed May 21 ‘08 7:10p
This play is the result of a successful computer model that has allowed Bob Akmens Sports to finish in first-place in 162 different categories of documented monitored handicapping contests since 1978.The computer models I’ve developed for each sport look at the most-predictive variables that go into the winning and losing of games.

Several interesting factors in today’s play are as follows –

On the face of it – and deep beneath the surface as well - this is a pitching mismatch.

Mike Pelfrey, the Mets hurler, has been around the block in the bigs – several times. Or more correctly, he’s tried to circle that block but hasn’t quite made it.

And this sub-mediocrity has shown: 9 road starts in the majors and 3 Mets wins.

He’s part of an endless stream of other pitchers I’ve seen in my lifetime – good enough to pitch at the top-level of the minors – but lacking major league stuff.

Jair Jurjjens goes for the Braves. Some name, huh? The kid’s from Curacao in the Caribbean – and the name’s Dutch, so it’s properly pronounced YARE YOUR-YENS. Given that every soul I ever meet mispronounces my name after seeing it in print, I try to pronounce other people’s names the way they do – instead of mangling them.

Back to Jurjjens. He’s currently the best home pitcher in baseball. Why is that? Because he’s made 9 starts in Atlanta – and 9 times the Braves have run off with smiles on their faces.

There’s no other pitcher in baseball whose team is 9-0 in their last 9 home starts.

And this is no statistical fluke: add in Jurjjens stellar 2.82 ERA and wonderful 1.20 WHIP (walks & hits divided by innings pitchers) and you’ve got the makings of an anti-Pelfrey: the real-deal and potentially a great major-league pitcher long-term.

Plus the Mets are 10-12 away from Shea and the Braves are an amazing 18-5 at home, so the price on this game at -1.40 is a joke.

Go with the BRAVES in this 7:10 PM ET matchup on ESPN.