Bowling Green vs. Akron
Free Pick: Akron +11.0 (-110 odds)
Fri November 20th 2009 5:30p
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The Akron Zips may be just 2-8 straight up overall including 0-5 on the road, but the Bowling Green Falcons are simply not good enough to be giving double-digits to anyone.

Yes, Bowling Green is averaging 25.4 points per game and they will be able to score on an Akron defense that is surrendering 28.8 point per contest. Our trepidation regarding the Falcons though lies with their defense, as they are actually allowing more points (27.0 per game) than they are scoring, a trait you never want to see in a double-digit favorite.

Furthermore, home field advantage has been a myth for Bowling Green so far as they are just 1-3 here in their own stadium compared to 4-2 on the road. The Falcons have been outscored by an unacceptable -9.8 points per game at home, where they have been simply dreadful against the run, allowing a whopping 202.2 rushing yards per game on a horrific 6.0 yards per rush.

Granted, Akron is offensively challenged, but even they can have success on the ground vs. this Falcons unit. The last time the Zips faced a team with a poor run defense, they accumulated 168 rushing yards vs. Kent State two weeks ago. As long as they do not fall behind too big too early, Akron will continue to pound the ball here, realizing that would give them the most realistic chance of pulling the upset.

While we are not sure the Zips can win outright, we do feel an effective running game will keep them within single-digits here until the final gun.

CFB Free Pick: Akron +11 (-110)

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