2008 Arena Football Weekend Playoff Previews
Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional AFL Football Handicapper, Featured on Touthouse.com
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Underdogs have ruled the roost in the Arena Football League playoffs in recent years, and the Wild Card weekend of the playoffs in 2008 confirmed the prevailing current trend. In 2006, the Chicago Rush were road underdogs in four straight playoff games on their way to winning the Arena Bowl. Last year, another regular season also-ran got hot in the playoffs, as 7-9 Columbus pulled off three consecutive road upsets before finally falling short in the Arena Bowl against San Jose. 
 
This past week, we saw road underdogs go 4-0 ATS, 3-1 SU in the opening round of the playoffs. Will we see more of the same this week? The betting marketplace doesn’t seem to think so. All four home teams are favored by more than a touchdown following their bye week here in the Divisional Round of the playoffs, with the four road underdogs still searching for respect from bettors. Let’s break down the games one by one, focusing on the key pointspread and totals issues for each squad. Just like last weekend, all four games will be nationally televised on ESPN or ESPN2.
 
Colorado Crush @ San Jose Sabercats (SJ -11, O/U 111.5)
Saturday, July 5th - Arena Football Odds
Colorado has some real momentum right now, winning and covering three straight, including two strong performances on the road. The Crush have a solid recent history of postseason success. John Elway’s squad won the Arena Bowl with John Dutton at QB and Mike Dailey as head coach as recently as 2005. Last year, the Crush went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs, winning outright at Kansas City and losing in spread covering fashion at the eventual champs San Jose. And despite a rash of injuries at wide receiver, the Crush defense appears to be good enough to give them a chance in this game as well.
 
San Jose dominated the lone regular season meeting between these two teams, winning 59-42 while averaging 8.9 yards per pass attempt in sharp contrast to the Crush’s 5.9 yards per attempt.  And the Sabercats defense remains an elite level unit, returning every starter from last year’s Arena Bowl championship team. Few home fields in the AFL really matter, but San Jose enjoys a tremendous advantage at the HP Pavilion, 16-2 SU (12-6 ATS) over the past two seasons. Future Hall of Fame quarterback Mark Grieb led the league with 100 touchdown passes this season while ranking third in the AFL in completion percentage. 
 
New York Dragons @ Philadelphia Soul (Philly -9.5, O/U 110) - Saturday, July 5th
New York has been a pointspread machine since March, covering the pointspread at a 9-3-1 clip in their last thirteen games. The Dragons scored touchdowns on eleven consecutive drives against an elite level defense in their upset win at Dallas last week, with quarterback Aaron Garcia showing no ill effects from the hard hit that he took against Philly in his regular season finale. Garcia has Hall of Fame credentials, but he’s never guided his team to the Arena Bowl. The Dragons enjoyed tremendous special teams play in their win over the Desperados as well. Kicker Steve Azar had a pair of onside kicks recovered by New York, while going a perfect 11-11 on extra point tries and booting three touchbacks.
 
On paper, Philadelphia looks like the team to beat in this year’s playoffs. The Soul cruised through the regular season with an AFL best 13-3 record, thanks to the play of the league’s top rated quarterback, Matt D’Orazio, who has filled in admirably for the injured Tony Graziani for most of the season. D’Orazio guided Chicago to an Arena Bowl title two years ago. It’s surely worth noting that the Soul’s three losses can all be easily explained away. Their loss to Cleveland came in a major flat spot on a short week following their biggest game of the year against Dallas. Their loss to Georgia was an aberration – the Soul led by three scores in the fourth quarter but collapsed in the final few minutes. And their loss to KC as a 17 point favorite was a matter of a disinterested team suffering through some mid-season injuries. The Soul are healthy now, and they beat New York 59-30 and 63-42 in their two regular season meetings.
 
Grand Rapids Rampage @ Chicago Rush (Chicago -9.5, O/U 113) - Sunday, July 6th
Grand Rapids has the ‘feel’ of a team like Columbus from last year, who came out of nowhere to reach the Arena Bowl. The Rampage were not good for most of the regular season, losing eight out of nine during one particularly ugly mid-season stretch. But the Rampage played their best football when it counted the most, reeling off three consecutive wins to close out the regular season, then winning outright as a road underdog at Arizona last week in a rare stellar defensive effort (a huge goal line stand essentially winning the game) from a stop unit that allowed 59+ on eleven different occasions in the 16 game regular season. First year head coach Steve Thonn and first year starting quarterback James MacPherson seem to be clicking together right now as Grand Rapids has averaged more than 70 points per game during their current four game winning streak.
 
Chicago looked like the class of the American Conference for much of the season, but the Rush really tailed off late.  First year starter Russ Michna finished fourth in the league in quarterback efficiency, but the offense was sluggish down the stretch as the Rush were held to 52 points or less four times in their final five games. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they lost All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo to a season ending injury prior to Week 16.  Chicago went 7-1 SU (5-3 ATS) at home this year, but they didn’t have an easy time in their most recent home meeting with the Rampage, needing a huge fourth quarter rally to beat Grand Rapids by a single field goal.
 
Cleveland Gladiators @ Georgia Force (Georgia -7.5, O/U 114) - Monday, July 7th
The Gladiators didn’t look like a team that hadn’t made the playoffs since 2003 in their opening round win over Orlando, showing great poise following a rough start to pull out the three point victory. The Gladiators have not been the most consistent team in the AFL this year (to put it mildly) – they haven’t won back-2-back games since mid-May. This offense is loaded. Quarterback Raymond Philyaw finished the regular season as the #2 rated quarterback in the AFL. Wide receiver Otis Amey made the All-AFL squad with 50 touchdown receptions while Robert Redd led the team in receiving yards and fullback Marlon Jackson also earned All-AFL honors. But the Gladiators defense has been a problem area all season, and could be a problem again here.
 
Georgia has not been a ‘blowout’ team this year, with half of their ten wins coming by a touchdown or less.  In six of those ten wins, Georgia found themselves tied or trailing in the fourth quarter, a testament to the coaching acumen of Doug Plank (my choice for AFL Coach of the Year honors) and the fortitude of quarterback Chris Griesen, who ranked among the league’s elite signal callers for the second consecutive season.  Georgia went 14-2 during the regular season last year, then blew out Philadelphia in their first playoff game, but were knocked off at home by the upstart Destroyers in the National Conference Championship Game right here at Phillips Arena. A solid win here should wipe some of the bad taste from that defeat away, and put the Force in position to return to the Arena Bowl for the first time since 2005.

2008 Arena Football Betting Playoffs Previews
Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, An Official Touthouse.com Sports Handicapper

The Arena Football playoffs begin this weekend, with four national TV games on ESPN and ESPN2.  We’ll see four more national TV games next weekend as the top two seeds in each conference come off their bye weeks with home games.  The two conference championship games are the following weekend, followed by Arena Bowl XXII in New Orleans following a two week ‘Super Bowl’ type layoff.  Each week between now and the Arena Bowl, I’ll be previewing the upcoming playoff matchups.
 
Friday, June 27th
New York @ Dallas (Dallas -7, O/U 103)
 
Dallas won 13 games in 2006, but were bounced out of the playoffs at home by Orlando following their bye week.  They went 15-1 last year, but suffered a devastating playoff loss at home to Columbus, also following their bye.  Dallas is coming off another exceptional regular season, but the Desperados know full well that regular season success does not directly translate to postseason excellence.  It’s surely worth noting that this year, Dallas didn’t win the division and won’t have a bye prior to the start of the playoffs.
 
Dallas played like a team that wasn’t particularly concerned with their regular season results down the stretch of the regular season.  The Desperados went just 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS in their final six games of the campaign.  To make matters worse, the Desperados have suffered through a rash of injuries in recent weeks, with electric kick returner Josh Bush the latest to go down, although star Ironman Will Pettis is expected to return to the lineup this week following a two game concussion induced absence.
 
Dallas has dominated this series in recent years, winning six straight meetings against the Dragons.  Both meetings this year were tight games, each decided by exactly two points, with New York covering the spread as an underdog in both contests.  Last year, Dallas won the two meetings 60-7 and 67-13, with their defense absolutely dominating the Dragons in both games.  The Dragons offense hasn’t exactly clicked against the Desperados defense this year either.  New York scored just 31 and 49 points in the two defeats, held to a very modest 11 touchdowns on 21 meaningful drives in those games.
 
New York suffered a major injury of their own in their season ending loss to Philadelphia last weekend when leading receiver Jason Willis dislocated his ankle.  Willis caught 135 passes and 30 touchdowns this year, leaving veteran quarterback Aaron Garcia without his top target against a defense that they’ve struggled against.  That being said, all the pressure is on the home team coming off two consecutive playoff collapses, and New York has been a pointspread machine since March, covering the pointspread at an 8-3-1 clip in their last dozen games.  It’s surely worth noting that the last four games have all flown Under the total, three of those Unders coming by more than five touchdowns!
 
Saturday, June 28th
Colorado @ Utah (Utah -6.5, O/U 119)
 
Utah’s second half turnaround was one of the biggest stories of the season in the AFL.  The Blaze started out the campaign with an 0-9 mark finding new ways to lose each week – a defensive meltdown, an untimely turnover, a special teams miscue.  But head coach Danny White coaxed an amazing turnaround, as Utah went 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS in their final seven games to not only reach the playoffs but actually earn a first round home game in the weak American Conference.
 
The Blaze are led by the #2 quarterback in passing yardage and touchdowns this year, Joe Germaine (#3 in QB rating).  Receivers Huey Whittaker, JJ McKelvey and Aaron Boone became the first receiving trio to each catch 100 passes in the same season, all three ranking in the top eight in the AFL in receiving yards.  Even the Blaze defense, which was a disaster area back in March and April, has come on strong down the stretch.
 
Colorado, too, has some momentum heading into the playoffs after winning and covering their last two regular season games following a dismal stretch of seven defeats in an eight game span.  Unlike Danny White’s Blaze, who have been bounced out of the playoffs in the first round in each of the last two seasons, Colorado has a recent history of postseason success.  John Elway’s Crush won the Arena Bowl with John Dutton at QB and Mike Dailey as head coach as recently as 2005.  Last year, the Crush went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS on the road in the playoffs, winning outright at Kansas City and losing in spread covering fashion at the eventual champs San Jose.
 
But the depleted Crush receiving corps took another hit last weekend.  Already missing star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens with a torn ACL, speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt went on injured reserve with concussion problems.  Dutton, the former Arena Bowl MVP, ranked dead last among QB’s with at least 220 passing attempts in quarterback rating, and he tied for the league lead in interceptions thrown.  The Crush lost their only regular season meeting at Utah 71-36.
 
Check back on Monday as I preview the two Monday Night games.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Sports Handicappers featured on Touthouse.com
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With the AFL entering the final week of the regular season, very little has been determined when it comes to the playoffs. Eight teams are in contention for the six postseason berths still available, three in each conference. And each of the two conference titles is up for grabs, with homefield edge throughout the playoffs still to be determined this weekend. Amazingly, all eight games on tap for the final weekend of the regular season hold some playoff implications – there isn’t a meaningless season finale on the board.

I’ll be going through the playoff scenarios for each of those eight games right here. It is important to note the starting times for the eight games (six on Saturday, two on Sunday), because the outcome of early games could have a dramatic effect on the intensity (or lack thereof) in later games. Most Arena Football games take between two and a half and three hours to complete

Columbus Destroyers (8-7) at Cleveland Gladiators (3-12)
Saturday, 7:00 pm ET
Columbus is out of the playoffs, after reaching the Arena Bowl last year. Cleveland’s playoff scenario is very simple – a win and they’re in, a loss and they’ll probably be out. The Gladiators will get a home game in the first round of the playoffs next weekend with the following scenario: Cleveland Gladiators win + New York Dragons loss + New Orleans VooDoo loss.

Grand Rapids Rampage (5-10) at New Orleans VooDoo (8-7)
Saturday, 7:00 pm ET
This is the only game where both teams are fighting for a playoff spot. Grand Rapids can get in with a win, or an LA loss at Tampa Bay. They’ll earn a home game in the first round of the playoffs next weekend with the following scenario: Grand Rapids Rampage win + Utah Blaze loss + Colorado Crush loss. New Orleans is in with a win, or they can still get in with a Cleveland loss if they lose the game themselves. The VooDoo get a home playoff game next weekend if they win and either New York or Cleveland wins as well.

Los Angeles Avengers (5-10) at Tampa Bay Storm (7-8)
Saturday, 7:30 pm ET
Tampa Bay had the best record within the ultra-competitive Southern Division, but they have no chance to reach the postseason after last week’s loss at San Jose. LA stayed alive in the playoff race with a win over Kansas City last week. The Avengers need a win here AND a loss from one of these three teams: Grand Rapids, Colorado or Utah in order to earn a playoff berth. They’ll get a first round home game if they win and both Colorado and Grand Rapids lose.

Kansas City Brigade (3-12) at Colorado Crush (5-10)
Saturday, 8:00 pm ET
Kansas City is out. Colorado gets in to the playoffs with a win or a loss by either Grand Rapids or LA. If the Crush win and Utah loses, Colorado will host a first round playoff game next weekend.

Utah Blaze (5-10) at Arizona Rattlers (8-7)
Saturday, 10:00 pm ET
Only two of the six teams that have already clinched playoff spots know their status heading into this weekend. Arizona is one of those two teams, having clinched the #3 seed in the American Conference. They’ll get a home playoff game next weekend, then hit the highway should they survive and advance to the following week. This game against Utah is absolutely meaningless for the Rattlers. Utah, on the other hand, is in need of a win here to clinch their spot. The Blaze can also earn a playoff spot even in defeat if either Colorado or Grand Rapids goes down to defeat as well.

Georgia Force (10-5) at San Jose SaberCats (10-5)
Saturday, 10:30 pm ET
Georgia joins Arizona as the only two teams that know their playoff status completely heading into Week 17. The Force won the Southern Division last week earning them a first round bye and a second round home game. They’ll be the #2 seed in the National Conference, unable to catch Philly or Dallas for the #1 seed. This game is completely meaningless for the Force. San Jose has already clinched the Western Division title and a first round playoff bye. But the Sabercats are locked in a tight battle with Chicago for the #1 seed in the American Conference, needing a win and a Rush loss to clinch that spot.

Philadelphia Soul (12-3) at New York Dragons (8-7)
Sunday, 3:00 pm ET
Philly can clinch the Eastern Division title and home field advantage throughout the National Conference playoffs with a win here or a Dallas loss. If the Soul lose and Dallas wins, Philly will be relegated to the #3 seed in the National Conference, losing out on their bye week and forced into action with a home game next weekend to open up the playoffs. New York needs a win just as much, if not more. If the Dragons can win, they’re in – it’s just that simple. If they don’t win here, New York can still back into the playoffs with a loss from either Cleveland or New Orleans. They’ll earn a first round home game with a win and a New Orleans loss; otherwise, they’ll be hitting the highway for the opening round.

Dallas Desperados (12-3) at Chicago Rush (10-5)
Sunday, 4:00 pm ET
Chicago will know their situation by kickoff. If San Jose won on Saturday night, Chicago will need a win to clinch the #1 seed in the American Conference. If San Jose lost on Saturday night, Chicago has already clinched that #1 seed, and this game becomes a meaningless season finale prior to their bye week. Dallas will be either the #1 seed or the #3 seed in the National Conference. The Desperados can earn that #1 seed if they win here and Philly loses to New York. If the Soul beat the Dragons, this game is meaningless for Dallas, but they won’t know the outcome of that game before they take the field.

Orlando Predators (9-7) vs. No One
The Predators have a bye for Week 17. They currently sit with the #4 seed in the National Conference, but could be out of the playoffs entirely depending on the action this weekend. Orlando needs at least one of the other three teams in contention to lose: Cleveland, New York or New Orleans. If all three win, the Predators are out.

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky, A Professional Arena Football Betting Handicapper at Touthouse.com
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Favorite bettors in the AFL suffered an absolute disaster this past weekend. While the favorites were 7-1 straight up, with only the underdog Colorado Crush winning outright, the underdogs were a perfect 8-0 against the spread. All eight games were decided in the final minute, with five of the eight outcomes not determined until the final ten seconds of the game. Five games were determined after a failed on-side kick, two by a failed fourth down pass and one by a last second missed field goal. If you were looking for excitement and competitive games, the AFL certainly suited your needs this past weekend.

It’s extremely rare to see favorites win seven of eight games in straight up fashion, but lose all eight against the spread. All seven games where the favorite won but didn’t cover were decided by three points or less. In a league where the winning team covers the spread at an 80%+ clip, the results this past weekend were a significant change from the long term history of the league.

As the regular season ends this weekend, there are eight teams battling for six playoff spots – three seeds available for the taking in each conference. In the American Conference four teams with 5-10 records (the Utah Blaze, LA Avengers, Grand Rapids Rampage and Colorado Crush) will battle for the three playoff spots, with one of the four teams earning a home playoff game. In league history, there has never been a team with losing records that has hosted a playoff game. One of the four teams listed above will host a playoff game next week with (at best) a 6-10 record. Since 1995, there had been just five teams with losing records to reach the post-season but there will be three that earn that dubious achievement in 2008.

One of the biggest in-season turnarounds this year came from the Georgia Force. Georgia wrapped up a third division title in four years this past weekend with a nailbiting win over Chicago. Remember, Georgia went 14-2 last year, clinching their division title midseason. This year, however, after losing two thirds of their superstar receiving trio when Derek Lee when to Columbus and Chris Jackson went to Philadelphia in the offseason, the Force stumbled out the gate, losing five of their first eight.

Georgia head coach Doug Plank: “I’ve never had so many people question my ability to coach before. It was a difficult time for us, but we just had to keep doing what we felt was right to put our team in a position to win.” Plank’s patience paid off, as Georgia reeled off seven straight wins to win the division, winning outright as underdogs on four separate occasions during that span. This week’s game at San Jose is meaningless for the Force, but Plank is reportedly not going to be resting starters with a bye week on tap. “Everyone will play, I won’t sacrifice this momentum.”

The Chicago Rush have tanked down the stretch, losing three of their last four, including the loss at Georgia this past weekend. Their lone win during this span came in a near-upset by lowly Kansas City as the Rush needed to rally from a double digit fourth quarter deficit as two touchdown favorites. To make matters even worse for Chicago, they’ve suffered some key injuries on the defensive side of the football. All-Arena linebacker DeJuan Alfonzo ruptured his right biceps tendon, placed on injured reserve prior to last week’s game. His backup, Ryan Dennard started against Georgia but left the game with an injury after the first series forcing LB Liam Ezekiel into extensive action.

Alfonzo’s injury is a devastating one. Head coach Mike Hohensee: “It’s a tremendous loss for the team. And I know nobody is more upset right now than ‘Zo. He is a great competitor and no one in the league plays the Jack linebacker position the way he does. However, we believe we have enough talent and depth to overcome his loss and make a run at another championship.”

The playoff scenario going into the final two weeks of the 2008 regular season for the Colorado Crush was simple: win twice and you’re in. Colorado had suffered a devastating injury blow of their own, when star rookie wide receiver/kick returner Chad Owens torn his ACL, joining another speedy WR threat Brad Pyatt on injured reserve. On Monday night the Crush took care of part one of their playoff scenario, blowing most of a four touchdown lead at Arizona but hanging on for the win.

With co-owner John Elway making headlines this past week by discussing the possibility of folding the franchise and/or completely tearing apart the team in the offseason, the Crush needed a strong performance and they got one. Head coach Mike Dailey: “We have had trouble getting bounces to go our way this season, but tonight we got a couple balls on turnovers that we were able to convert into points.” Defensive back Rashad Floyd, talking about their mindset against Kansas City this week: “We were in a do or die position and we were able to get the job done (last week).”

I don’t know why head coaches lie to the media and their own players, but it cost us a bet last week. Columbus Destroyers head coach Doug Kay told his team and the local beat writer that he would be giving backup quarterback Justin Zwick “extensive” playing time. With the Destroyers trailing by two scores and the crowd chanting for the former Ohio State hero (“We Want Zwick”), Kay gave Zwick exactly one play under center for the entire game. Zwick: “I thought I was going to play a lot more.”

Kay made no apologies for his outright lie: “We felt that Matt (Nagy) had to control the football game based on the way the situation was going. Justin Zwick wasn’t put in the game to control the game. He was put in the game so we could get some idea (of him in game conditions) and so that he could get some idea.” I guess one play from scrimmage was enough for the 3-12 Destroyers to evaluate Zwick’s capabilities. We’ll have to see whether he gets more playing time this week in the Destroyers season finale at Cleveland.

I’ll be back with a second AFL article before the weekend, outlining each team’s respective playoff scenarios for Week 17.

Free Arena Football Pick: Los Angeles Avengers +9.5
Mon Jun 9 ‘08 10:00p - Click Here for AFL Odds
The Utah Blaze have been on fire winning two in a row and four of their L5, while the L.A. Avengers have been struggling losing three in a row and five of their last six. Thats why we are getting a an exaggerated line favoring Utah.It a little inflated, considering how important this game, is to each teams playoff hopes.(Yes believe it or not these sub par teams , have a chance at a postseason spot, because, of the American Conferences weakness.) In this type of tilt taking the points is sharp bettors way to go, as this contest has a high probability of going down to the wire. Final notes & Key Trends: The Blaze are just 3-13 L16 ATS as a home favorite. Play on the Avengers to cover

Free Arena Football Pick Courtesy of Alex Smart

New York Dragons -1.5
Sat Jun 7 ‘08 7:00p - Courtesy of Ted Sevransky
New Orleans is getting far too much credit from the linesmakers for a misleading home victory over the only team in the entire league that has no hope of making the playoffs. Yes, the VooDoo beat Columbus by three touchdowns at home last week, where they are 6-1 this season. But the VooDoo and the Destroyers both scored nine touchdowns on eleven meaningful drives. The difference in the game were a pair of net recoveries on kickoffs for New Orleans (the ultimate ‘lucky’ play) and an interception return for touchdown with no time left on the clock in the first half. New Orleans is still only 1-3 SU in their last four games, and they are just 2-4 SU on the highway, yet they are priced in a pointspread range where they’ll likely need a straight up win to earn a pointspread cover here. Click Here for Arena Football Odds

The New York Dragons are trending in the opposite direction right now. Since their 1-4 start, the Dragons are 6-2 SU. Their tremendous defense has held opponents under 50 points in seven of their last nine ballgames. Meanwhile, Hall-of-Fame quarterback Aaron Garcia guided the team to ten touchdowns and a field goal on their eleven meaningful possessions last week. In fact, this offense has averaged 62 points per game in their last four home games, scoring at least 56 each time. Let’s take advantage of yet another bad pointspread in a season full of bad pointspreads from the linesmakers with a play on the Dragons as short home favorites here. Take New York. Current Line: NY -1.5, reduce wager size to half a unit at -3 or higher.

Philadelphia Soul +4.0 (-110)
Sat Jun 7 ‘08 8:00p - Courtesy of Mike Rose
Philadelphia cost AFL bettors in a big way its last time out when it fell at home to the Kansas City Brigade, 54-47, as 17-point home favorites. The shocking loss was their third in their last four overall games, but they played with a number of their superstars sidelined on both sides of the ball during that stretch. Last weeks “Bye” allowed them to lick their wounds and heal up for this crucial Eastern Division clash. QB Tony Graziani, DB Mike Brown, LB Rod Davis, and DL Bryan Save will all be back for this crucial game at Dallas this Saturday night. Philly has won four of its six road games SU and gone 3-3 ATS.

The Desperados seem to have found its stride after picking up decisive wins at both Orlando and Cleveland the last two weeks. The Desperados raised their record to an AFL-best 11-2 on the arm of QB Clint Dolezel, who took advantage of good protection to complete 28-of-38 passes for 252 yards and eight touchdowns. The win allowed Dallas to clinch its third straight playoff appearance. After severely costing AFL bettors from late March to mid May, Dallas secured pointspread victories in each of the last two weeks to claw one game 0ver .500 at 7-6 ATS. They currently sit atop the Eastern Division one game ahead of Philadelphia, but the Soul owns the tiebreaker after they mauled the Desperados at home back in Week 9.

This will be the 10th match-up between these division rivals in the series’ history, and the second this season. Philadelphia embarrassed the Desperados back in Week 9 at home in a game that was televised live on ESPN2 HD. The 57-28 final still doesn’t reflect how dominant Philly was even though they won the game by 29-points and crushed the 4.5-point spread. The 85 combined points saw the under cash with relative ease. Dallas holds 5-4 SU and ATS advantages throughout their first nine battles, and they’re 3-1 SU and ATS when they’ve welcomed the Soul to Dallas.
Overall, this series has been higher scoring with the over cashing in six of the nine games, but the defenses have stepped up of late to allow the under to go 2-1 ATS their L/3 meetings.

The Despo’s certainly look to be the choice in this spot after they were bet from one-point pups at the open to four-point favorites. They get to host the Soul off their “Bye” exactly like Philly did Dallas back in Week 9. Even though the Soul’s scuffled of late, I believe them to be the best team in the Eastern Division if not the entire league. They’ll be playing with a full deck for the first time in a month, and I’m still not sold on Dallas’ mental capacity after they’ve failed in this scenario so many times over the years. If DB Eddie Moten snags another Dolezel pass, look out. Dolezel folded like a cheap suit in their Week 9 battle after Moten made him look like a chump, and Clint has already proven to me that he’s a crybaby and quitter when things don’t go his way. It’s risky after what Philly did to this club earlier this season, but grab the points with the team I believe grades higher in mental capacity. Click Here for Arena Football Picks

Article Courtesy of Ted Sevransky. A Professional Sports Handicapper at Touthouse.com
Ted Sevransky is known worldwide as on of the leading arena football handicappers
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The biggest betting story in the AFL over the past few weeks has been the remarkable run of Unders, particularly in games with the highest totals on the board.  Seven of the eight games in Week 13 went Under the total, the lone exception (Orlando-Dallas) squeaking over by a single score.  Dallas was the only team in the league to eclipse the 60 point barrier, while ten different teams were held below 50.  Only one AFL quarterback threw for more than 300 yards last week, a season low.
 
The trend towards Unders has been particularly noticeable in the games expected to be higher scoring contests, with totals of 110 or higher.  In the last three weeks, games with these high totals have gone Under at a 12-2 clip.  The betting marketplace is adjusting on the fly, with only two games (San Jose @ Los Angeles and Utah @ Grand Rapids) totaled at higher than 110 this week, although Arizona-Chicago (109.5) and Tampa Bay-Georgia (108.5) aren’t far away.
 
Monday Night’s ESPN affair featured a pair of teams headed in opposite directions right now.  Three weeks ago, New Orleans was looking at a Southern Division championship and a first round playoff bye.  Now the VooDoo are locked in a serious battle just to earn a playoff spot, tied for sixth place in the ultra-competitive National Conference.  Head coach Mike Neu has seen his offense struggle mightily during their three game skid, held under 40 points in each of the losses.  Quarterback Danny Wimprine was able to guide his team to only a single touchdown after halftime on Monday Night, against a defense that had allowed 67 points the previous week against New York. 
 
Georgia, on the other hand, is streaking in a positive direction right now, winners of four straight.  The key to Georgia’s recent success has been the development of their offensive line.  Georgia has allowed only three sacks all season, holding their opponents sack-less nine times in their last ten games.  James Clark, Shane Grice, Ben Nowland and fullback Bruce McClure certainly aren’t household names, even among diehard AFL fans, but that quartet has allowed QB Chris Griesen to attempt his last 243 passes without a sack.  Griesen struggled early in the season, but his numbers of late remind many of his performance last year, when he led the league in quarterback efficiency.  During the Force’s four game winning streak, Griesen has thrown 24 touchdown passes with only two interceptions, completing at least 70% of his pass attempts in every ballgame.
 
This past weekend was full of upsets, with 2-9 Columbus knocking off 6-5 New York and 2-10 Utah pulling off the shocker against 9-2 Chicago.  But none of the upsets was bigger than 2-9 Kansas City’s surprise win in Philadelphia as 17.5 point underdogs against the 10-2 Soul.  Philly became only the fourth team in AFL history to start 9-0 after their impressive Monday Night domination of Dallas, but they are just 1-3 SU since, 0-4 ATS, losing those four games by a combined 57 points against the spread.  The last two defeats were decided on the final play of the game, losses by a combined eight points.  It’s worth noting that of the three previous teams to start 9-0 or better, all three reached the Arena Bowl.
 
Another front line contender for the Arena Bowl championship, the Dallas Desperados, bounced back nicely from their own huge upset loss at home to Arizona the previous week, taking out their frustrations on the Orlando Predators in the Jungle.  Tied 28-28 at halftime, Dallas stepped up their defensive intensity after the break, forcing five Predators stops in the second half alone, including a pair of safeties and a net recovery on a kickoff.  Head coach Will McClay: “IF we get a lead, now we’re able to hunt.  The pass rushers are able to go; we can mix up some coverages.  That’s kind of the recipe that you’ve got to have.  Desperados QB Clint Dolezel suffered a flare up of his old hip injury that could give him trouble in the weeks to go.  Dolezel : “I’ve got a little bone-on-bone in there, and it just got irritated really bad.”

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Arena Football Free Pick: New York Dragons @ Los Angeles Avengers o111.5
Sat May 10 ‘08 10:30p - Click Here for Current AFL Odds

Coming into Week 11’s AFL action, the NY Dragons sit four games in back of the National Conference’s Eastern Division leading Philadelphia Soul with a 5-4 SU mark, and they come into tonight’s contest winners of four in a row both SU and ATS. As for the Avengers, they sit one-game in back the San Jose Sabercats for the top spot in the Western Division of the American Conference. This will be just the sixth match-up between these two franchises as the Avengers have a stranglehold on the series winning four of the five match-ups both straight-up and against the spread. However, NY notched its first win of the series back in 2006 when they went into the Staples Center and upended the Avengers 70-61 as three-point road favorites. The 131 combined points soared over the closing ‘total’ of 112 to make the over 3-1 ATS in the L/4 overall meetings.

The Dragons have played some phenomenal defense to start the season that’s seen the under cash in six of their nine lined games this season. The under is a perfect 3-0 ATS when they’ve lined up against non-conference opposition, and it’s cashed all three times they played in a game with the total equal to or greater than 110. That said, LA is fighting for its playoff lives and the over has cashed in 4 of their 5 home games this season. It’s also 4-1 ATS when the total is equal to or greater than 110. Historically, this has been a high scoring series, so look for that to continue tonight regardless of how well NY’s defense has played throughout its L/5 games.

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1) Chicago Rush (8-2/1-0) (4-5 ATS) (LW: 2) Chicago heads into its ‘bye’ week off a nice game at Tampa Bay that saw them pull away in the second half to secure their eighth win of the season. The 51-46 final count saw them push on the five-point spread, and the 97 combined points unfortunately fell short of the closing ‘total’ of 107. Overall, Arena Football bettors have gone 5-4-1 ATS backing the Rush, and juiced out playing their totals (5-5 ATS). They can actually clinch a playoff spot in Week 11 without even playing a game if one of five American conference teams loses their match-up this weekend. The Rush boast the 2nd ranked offense scoring close to 59 PPG, and the league’s second ranked stop unit allowing opponents a shade over 46 points per contest. They’ll welcome in the Los Angeles Avengers to the All State Arena for their next online sports wagering contest in Week 12.

2) Philadelphia Soul (9-1/0-1) (6-4 ATS) (LW: 1) We’re going to go ahead and give the Soul a mulligan for last week after they opposed the Destroyers on just three days rest. They destroyed the undefeated Dallas Desperados on ESPN2’s Monday night telecast, and then had to take on another division rival just a couple days later. Someone in the scheduling department must be fired! Still, the Soul are by far the premiere squad in this league. They have it all! They have a pair of successful QB’s, the fourth ranked defense surrendering a shade under 50 PPG, and the #1 ranked offense lighting the scoreboard up for a whopping 64 PPG. On top of that, AFL bettors have made decent bank backing these guys this year evidenced by their 6-4 ATS mark. The Soul I’m talking about is the one that took Dallas out behind the woodshed, not the fatigued club off a huge win that fell to Cleveland SU as 10-point road favorites. I expect to see the dominant version this Monday night when they pay the Georgia Force a visit on ESPN2’s telecast.

3) Dallas Desperados (8-1/1-0) (5-4 ATS) (LW: 3) The Desperados avoided losing two in a row for the first time in three years last weekend when they escaped Columbus with a 48-45 victory. QB Clint Dolezel surpassed Andy Kelly (42,528 yards) to become the AFL’s all-time leader in passing yardage, but the Desperados failed to cover the spread for the second week in a row and fourth time in their L/5 overall. On the bright side, Dolezel completed 24 of 37 passes for a season-high 291 yards and seven touchdowns, so he might finally be over the hump in recovering from the separated shoulder he suffered in Week 1. Hopefully he’ll be able to help the offense increase its scoring average as it comes in dead last averaging just less than 48 PPG heading into Week 11. After going 10-6 ATS in the regular season last year, offshore oddsmakers seem to have a better grasp of 2008’s version since they’re just 5-4 ATS throughout their first nine games. They’ll welcome in the Grand Rapids Rampage this Saturday night in a game that could get very ugly.

4) Orlando Predators (7-3/1-0) (6-3-1 ATS) (LW: 3) Orlando bounced back superbly from its shocking loss to Tampa Bay at home last week, and in the process solved the riddle that had been the San Jose Sabercats by ripping them apart by a 61-35 final count. They were the beneficiaries of five Sabercat turnovers, and they made the most of them by converting them into 21 points to allow them to pull away for the decisive home win and cover. The Preds offense has been electric all season long currently ranked #4 averaging close to 58 points per contest, and the defense had made strides of late now ranked 6th allowing a shade under 54 PPG. AFL bettors have seen a return on their investment with the Preds this year winning 60% of the time they backed them. They currently sit tied atop the Southern Division with New Orleans, but the VooDoo currently hold the tiebreaker after beating them in “The Graveyard” back in early March. The Preds will pay a visit to Cleveland to take on a Gladiator team that handed the Soul their first loss of the season last week.

5) New Orleans Voodoo (7-3/0-1) (7-3 ATS) (LW: 4) Every team puts forth a clunker throughout a 16-game schedule, and the VooDoo certainly did just that last weekend at Georgia where they got steamrolled by a 61-35 final count. Turnovers and Georgia defensive stops did them in as the offense never got on track, and the Force simply did as they pleased against the 5th ranked defense (49 PPG) in the league. The loss dropped the Voodoo to both 7-3 SU and ATS on the year, with all three losses coming on the road. They currently sit tied atop the Southern Division with the Orlando Predators but hold the tiebreaker as previously mentioned. Head coach Mike Neu and his staff better rally the troops as they head into steamy Tampa Bay to take on a Storm club that’s lost three straight at home.

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The single biggest turnaround in the AFL this season has come from the New York Dragons. The Dragons went 1-4 to begin the season, with starting quarterback Aaron Garcia languishing on the sidelines in street clothes. Since Garcia returned to health, the Dragons have reeled off four straight wins and covers. But it’s been much more than Garcia – the Dragons defense has keyed their turnaround, holding each of their last five opponents to 47 points or less, the best ‘D’ in the league during that span.

Dragons head coach Weylan Harding: “The guys are getting a sense of themselves and their potential. All of the guys are starting to believe in each other and believe in what we have here. That’s the product of their hard work. The scariest thing is that we can still be so much better. They have a world of potential.” Quarterback Aaron Garcia: “The guys have really stepped up and done a great job… In football terms, every game is important. We’re chasing two teams in our division that are undefeated. We have to keep fighting and keep pushing to get up to the top.”

The Tampa Bay Storm snapped their five game losing streak with an impressive win on the road in the Jungle at Orlando last week. After going an AFL record 21 quarters (more than five full games) without forcing a single turnover, the Storm recovered three fumbles and picked off two Predators passes. Watch out for the Storm down the stretch. Last year, Tampa Bay started 1-6, but reeled off eight victories in their final nine games of the regular season (7-2 ATS) to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay head coach Tim Marcum gave me my favorite quote of the year, following the win. The Storm had been in control of the game, but the Predators scored a touchdown with under three minutes to go to cut the deficit to seven. Then, they recovered an onside kick, giving them a chance to tie the game or take the lead. Marcum: “I was thinking, ‘Well, here we go again.’ It’s kind of like wiping your butt with a bicycle tire. The stuff just keeps coming around. Except this time we made a change. We made a play.” Kind of like wiping your butt with a bicycle tire – thanks for the laugh, Tim!

The Utah Blaze dropped to 0-9 with a loss at New Orleans (1-7-1 ATS) but embattled head coach Danny White hasn’t lost his cool. White: “That’s what we have to try to do now, is keep the morale up, keep the chemistry going with rally caps and whatever we have to do to keep from going out on the field expecting something bad to happen.”

Blaze defensive back Damon Mason, an 11-year veteran said he has been amazed at how the even-keeled the coaching staff has remained while suffering loss after loss. Mason played for volatile Orlando coach Jay Gruden for six years and said the atmosphere in Salt Lake City has been entirely different. “You imagine the things you would hear from a guy like Jay Gruden with (winless) team. So, I commend Coach White and the way he has handled things. He comes in with a smile every day. . . You talk about being a pro. . . He’s not walking around telling guys they are going to be fired. That’s a good thing.”

Last year, the San Jose Sabercats were mediocre at best through the first half of the season, just 3-3 after six games. Then, the Sabercats got hot, reeling off ten straight wins to close out the regular season and three wins in the playoffs to win the Arena Bowl title. The Sabercats spent the first seven weeks of this season looking mediocre at best, just 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, losing twice on one of the strongest home fields in the league. But if the last two weeks are any indication, Darren Arbet’s squad looks poised for another second half turnaround.

The Sabercats scored a season high 70 points against LA this past weekend, their highest point total of the year, and the first game all season where they didn’t commit a single turnover. But it’s the San Jose defense that has opposing teams running scared right now. Two weeks ago, San Jose recovered three fumbles, notched two sacks and got an interception while holding Utah to a season low 212 yards and 40 points. The ‘D’ was every bit as good this past weekend, forcing five turnovers against LA in their 28 point victory over the Avengers.

The most disappointing team in the AFL this year has to be the Georgia Force , a squad that went 14-2 last year and made it to the National Conference championship game. At 3-5, off back-2-back losses, head coach Doug Plank is searching for answers. “We’re just not playing very well right now… The turnover ratio is not in our favor. Our scoring is down, and what’s really hurting us right now is our kick coverage. … The lack of consistency in our receiving corps and defensive backs are hurting our production right now…. This one (loss to Arizona) could not be blamed on offense, defense or special teams. Every aspect of our team contributed to this loss.”

Georgia has had numerous injuries to their receiving corps and their secondary since the start of the season. Star receiver Troy Bergeron did not play at Arizona due to his deep thigh bruise, and defensive back Willie Gary also was out with a thigh injury. Both are question marks for Saturday night’s home game against New Orleans. Plank: “It’s been kind of musical chairs back there (in the secondary). We want to get three guys back there and try to simplify things - eliminate the thought process and let those guys go out and play…. We haven’t really seen a healthy Troy Bergeron this season. We almost plan on not having him [Saturday]. That way, we won’t be disappointed.”

Last, but not least, don’t ever be fooled by AFL passing yardage statistics – it’s an irrelevant stat in this league. I use QB rating and touchdowns per ‘meaningful’ possessions as a much better indicator of offensive capabilities. The numbers don’t lie. Four AFL quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards last week: Joe Germaine (Utah), Chris Greisen (Georgia), John Dutton (Colorado) and D Bryant (Kansas City). Those four teams went 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS….