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The single biggest turnaround in the AFL this season has come from the New York Dragons. The Dragons went 1-4 to begin the season, with starting quarterback Aaron Garcia languishing on the sidelines in street clothes. Since Garcia returned to health, the Dragons have reeled off four straight wins and covers. But it’s been much more than Garcia – the Dragons defense has keyed their turnaround, holding each of their last five opponents to 47 points or less, the best ‘D’ in the league during that span.

Dragons head coach Weylan Harding: “The guys are getting a sense of themselves and their potential. All of the guys are starting to believe in each other and believe in what we have here. That’s the product of their hard work. The scariest thing is that we can still be so much better. They have a world of potential.” Quarterback Aaron Garcia: “The guys have really stepped up and done a great job… In football terms, every game is important. We’re chasing two teams in our division that are undefeated. We have to keep fighting and keep pushing to get up to the top.”

The Tampa Bay Storm snapped their five game losing streak with an impressive win on the road in the Jungle at Orlando last week. After going an AFL record 21 quarters (more than five full games) without forcing a single turnover, the Storm recovered three fumbles and picked off two Predators passes. Watch out for the Storm down the stretch. Last year, Tampa Bay started 1-6, but reeled off eight victories in their final nine games of the regular season (7-2 ATS) to make the playoffs.

Tampa Bay head coach Tim Marcum gave me my favorite quote of the year, following the win. The Storm had been in control of the game, but the Predators scored a touchdown with under three minutes to go to cut the deficit to seven. Then, they recovered an onside kick, giving them a chance to tie the game or take the lead. Marcum: “I was thinking, ‘Well, here we go again.’ It’s kind of like wiping your butt with a bicycle tire. The stuff just keeps coming around. Except this time we made a change. We made a play.” Kind of like wiping your butt with a bicycle tire – thanks for the laugh, Tim!

The Utah Blaze dropped to 0-9 with a loss at New Orleans (1-7-1 ATS) but embattled head coach Danny White hasn’t lost his cool. White: “That’s what we have to try to do now, is keep the morale up, keep the chemistry going with rally caps and whatever we have to do to keep from going out on the field expecting something bad to happen.”

Blaze defensive back Damon Mason, an 11-year veteran said he has been amazed at how the even-keeled the coaching staff has remained while suffering loss after loss. Mason played for volatile Orlando coach Jay Gruden for six years and said the atmosphere in Salt Lake City has been entirely different. “You imagine the things you would hear from a guy like Jay Gruden with (winless) team. So, I commend Coach White and the way he has handled things. He comes in with a smile every day. . . You talk about being a pro. . . He’s not walking around telling guys they are going to be fired. That’s a good thing.”

Last year, the San Jose Sabercats were mediocre at best through the first half of the season, just 3-3 after six games. Then, the Sabercats got hot, reeling off ten straight wins to close out the regular season and three wins in the playoffs to win the Arena Bowl title. The Sabercats spent the first seven weeks of this season looking mediocre at best, just 3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS, losing twice on one of the strongest home fields in the league. But if the last two weeks are any indication, Darren Arbet’s squad looks poised for another second half turnaround.

The Sabercats scored a season high 70 points against LA this past weekend, their highest point total of the year, and the first game all season where they didn’t commit a single turnover. But it’s the San Jose defense that has opposing teams running scared right now. Two weeks ago, San Jose recovered three fumbles, notched two sacks and got an interception while holding Utah to a season low 212 yards and 40 points. The ‘D’ was every bit as good this past weekend, forcing five turnovers against LA in their 28 point victory over the Avengers.

The most disappointing team in the AFL this year has to be the Georgia Force , a squad that went 14-2 last year and made it to the National Conference championship game. At 3-5, off back-2-back losses, head coach Doug Plank is searching for answers. “We’re just not playing very well right now… The turnover ratio is not in our favor. Our scoring is down, and what’s really hurting us right now is our kick coverage. … The lack of consistency in our receiving corps and defensive backs are hurting our production right now…. This one (loss to Arizona) could not be blamed on offense, defense or special teams. Every aspect of our team contributed to this loss.”

Georgia has had numerous injuries to their receiving corps and their secondary since the start of the season. Star receiver Troy Bergeron did not play at Arizona due to his deep thigh bruise, and defensive back Willie Gary also was out with a thigh injury. Both are question marks for Saturday night’s home game against New Orleans. Plank: “It’s been kind of musical chairs back there (in the secondary). We want to get three guys back there and try to simplify things - eliminate the thought process and let those guys go out and play…. We haven’t really seen a healthy Troy Bergeron this season. We almost plan on not having him [Saturday]. That way, we won’t be disappointed.”

Last, but not least, don’t ever be fooled by AFL passing yardage statistics – it’s an irrelevant stat in this league. I use QB rating and touchdowns per ‘meaningful’ possessions as a much better indicator of offensive capabilities. The numbers don’t lie. Four AFL quarterbacks threw for more than 300 yards last week: Joe Germaine (Utah), Chris Greisen (Georgia), John Dutton (Colorado) and D Bryant (Kansas City). Those four teams went 0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS….

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When the undefeated Patriots met the undefeated Colts in Week 9 of the 2007 NFL season, it was hyped as the biggest NFL regular season game ever. And frankly, the hype was well deserved with two marquee franchises, the best two quarterbacks in the league, and both teams outclassing the rest of the league (at the time).

I don’t make many comparisons between the NFL and Arena Football, but this is one time where comparisons make perfect sense. When the Dallas Desperados travel to Philadelphia to take on the Soul, Monday Night in an ESPN2 showdown, it will mark the first time in 22 years of the AFL in which two undefeated teams will meet this late in the season (ironically, also in Week 9).

Oddsmakers have Philadelphia set as a 5 1/2-point favorite with the total at 104 1/2.

Philadelphia has been truly special this season on both sides of the football, right from the opening weekend of action. The Soul have won seven of their eight previous games by eight points or more. In the only game that they didn’t dominate from start to finish, Philly rallied from 26 points down on the road against the defending Arena Bowl champs San Jose to earn a one point victory. And the Soul haven’t just been feasting on patsies either, with double digit victories over Orlando, Chicago and New York, three rock solid playoff caliber teams from their own conference.

The Soul’s 66 points per game average leads the league by a wide margin. Even more impressively, Philly has managed to put up these impressive numbers despite suffering an injury to their starting quarterback, Tony Graziani. Graziani’s backup, Matt D’Orazio has been nothing short of stellar, entering Monday Night’s game with the AFL’s second best QB rating, while Graziani ranks third.

Graziani returned last weekend against Columbus only to tweak his injured knee. D’Orazio came on in relief and led the Soul to victory yet again. It looks as if Graziani will be healthy enough to start again this week, but there’s absolutely no drop-off in Philly’s offense if he can’t finish the game for whatever reason. The two quarterbacks split reps in practice this week.

Dallas, too, has suffered through a serious quarterback injury. QB Clint Dolezel, the AFL’s career leader in touchdown passes, got hurt in Week 1, replaced in the starting lineup by Chris Sanders. There was a clear drop-off offensively for the Desperados with their backup QB in the lineup, but Dallas was able to remain undefeated by virtue of their stellar defense, allowing a league low 42 points per game.

Dolezel is 100% healthy now, leading Dallas to victories over Cleveland and New Orleans since returning. With a strong performance here, Dolezel will become the AFL’s all time leading passer – he’s thrown for more than 42,000 yards in his 13 year career.

Dallas has won 15 consecutive regular season games dating back to last year’s remarkable 15-1 season. They’ve only been underdogs twice during that span: a three point win at Philly last year as one point dogs, and a three point win at San Jose this year as four point dogs. Clearly, this veteran team has the capacity to beat quality foes on the road in hostile environments.

Philadelphia normally plays their games at the Wachovia Center, home of the Flyers and 76ers. With the Flyers in action for a home playoff game on Monday Night, the game has been moved to the legendary Spectrum. Quotes from the Dallas players and staff indicate that Dallas is not enamored with the change of venue.

Head coach Will McClay: “The Spectrum is one of those places that set the stage for the Broad Street Brawl. You go in there and it’s an older place that has a lot of history to it. The ceiling is low and it gets loud in there. To us and what we know about Philadelphia, that place is Philadelphia. It’s grimy and one of those loud places that is going to be tough to play in.” Clint Dolezel, speaking tongue in cheek: “I think its cheating, first of all. It’s kind of like going into New York or some of the other stadiums where they funnel in all of that noise.”

Unfortunately, I’m not going to be able to release a play for my AFL clients in this Monday Night battle. Basically, I’m unwilling to bet against either one of these squads, without a doubt, the two best teams in the league. Philly scored a touchdown on every single meaningful possession last week despite playing both quarterbacks, truly an offense that is clicking on all cylinders. Dallas hasn’t been as pretty to watch as Philadelphia this year, but the Desperados defense is the best in the league, capable of stopping even the most potent attack. That makes this game very difficult to call, either side or total. Great game to watch; tough game to bet on…

Free Arena Football Pick: San Jose SaberCats +5.5 (-110)
Sat April 12 ‘08 10:30p - Click Here for AFL Odds
For the Sabercats to try and repeat its body of work from a year ago, they’ll have to be highly efficient on both sides of the ball since Philadelphia boasts the advantage in just about every statistical category. Philadelphia owns the #1 scoring offense in the league averaging a shade under 66 PPG, while San Jose counters with its 10th ranked defense that’s limited opponents to 56.3 PPG through its first six games. The Soul’s averaged 303 passing YPG on the road this season (#3), while San Jose limited both of its opponents at home to just 272.5 YPG (#8). San Jose will battle back with its 9th rated home offense that’s averaged 53.2 PPG in its only two outings, but Philly counters with the leagues 4th ranked road defense allowing opponents a measly 48 PPG. When the Sabercats look to the air with its 2nd ranked home passing attack at 310 YPG, it will be throwing into the teeth of the leagues 2nd ranked road defense allowing opponents just 234 YPG.

It’s not often that San Jose has been installed an underdog at home. It didn’t happen last year in their Championship season, and they were the decided favorite in their Week 4 match-up with the Dallas Desperados. In their last 13 games within the confines of the HP Pavilion, San Jose is 12-1 SU and 10-3 ATS. As for Philadelphia, they’re 4-2 ATS their L/6 on the road. - Courtesy of Mike Rose

Kansas City Brigade +9.5 (-110)
Sat Mar 29 ‘08 6:00p - Click Here to Buy Mike Rose’s Expert Arena Football Picks
Both the San Jose Sabercats and Kansas City Brigade will look to pull themselves off the mat when they hook up in the ‘Sprint Center’ at 6:00 ET Saturday night. The defending champs lost their second game of the season last week in a hard fought battle with Dallas, while Kansas City surrendered a whopping 92 points to the winless Grand Rapids Rampage in their 40-point defeat. San Jose has split its first four games of the season, and comes into tonight’s contest a poor 1-3 ATS. It hasn’t been the greatest of starts for Head Coach Darren Arbet’s club, but the Sabercats normally start slow and turn it on after the first month of play. Last week’s effort certainly wasn’t what Head Coach Kevin Porter had envisioned after having 15 days to prepare for their battle with the Rampage, but it is what it is and the Brigade come into this game winless one the year.

Last week’s battle between the Desperados and Sabercats was deemed the game of the week, and it didn’t disappoint. San Jose trailed 29-28 at the half, and it was tied at 35 after three quarters of play. However, the fourth quarter saw them turn it over twice to allow the Desperados an extra possession and they took full advantage of it. The 59-56 final count was reached after QB Mark Grieb found a wide-open James Roe as time expired. Grieb completed 34-of-45 pass attempts for 356 yards and six touchdowns, but it wasn’t enough to pick up the win. They lost SU for the second time this season after being pegged the favorite in the contest.

As mentioned up above, Kansas City was demolished by Grand Rapids last week. The 92-52 final score saw them fail to cover the six and a half-point spread and the combined score of 144 sailed over the posted total of 103. The Brigades defense was non-existent giving up a near record 95 points and nine TD passes to James MacPherson in his first ever AFL start. The only positive to come out of the game was in the play of QB Matt Kohn who tossed for 281 yards and four touchdowns, while completing 19-of-36 pass attempts in the loss.

The Brigade enters tonight’s match-up with the Sabercats on a five game losing streak that’s carried over from the end of last season. That said, they’re 5-1 SU and ATS against the Western Division in the franchises history. Look for ‘The Hangar II’ to be rocking in the first ever meeting between these two teams.

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Columbus Destroyers +3.0 (-110)
Sat Mar 29 ‘08 7:00p - Click Here to Buy Mike Rose’s Expert Arena Football Picks
The 2-2 Orlando Predators hit the road after back-to-back home victories to face the Columbus Destroyers, fresh off of their first victory of the season. The Preds were fortunate to pick up the ‘W’ at home following a very questionable ruling that a Georgia WR was short of the end zone on the last play of the game. Orlando won 50-45. As for Columbus, they got off the schneid after a couple disappointing performances by winning in Utah 52-49 on the final play of the game. The Destroyers offense struggled, only posting five TDs on the night, but four of those five scores were put up in a 2nd half in which they outscored the Blaze 32-14.

WR TT Toliver has done it all for the Predators at the quarter pole of the season. He leads the AFL with 545 receiving yards, and tops the league for total yards per game at a whopping 236.5. His 14 TDs is second to only Soul WR Chris Jackson (16). QB Shane Stafford leads all QBs who have started at least three games with a 125.8 QB rating and is only two TD passes behind Joe Germaine for the league lead. The struggles for Orlando have come on defense, where the team gave up 64 PPG in their first three outings. However, the defense redeemed itself by coming up with four stops while holding the Force to just 45 total points.

The exact opposite story is going on in Columbus, where the Destroyers have to be scratching their heads about their futile offense. It’s averaged a shade over 6 TDs a game, a number which just isn’t going to cut it, especially with a defense that has only forced three turnovers on the young season. QB Matt Nagy has been inconsistent in terms of completion percentage, but has only turned the ball over twice, which has kept Columbus alive in all four games this year.

Orlando has been deemed a 3-point chalk in this one, but bettors have cause for concern on both sides of this one. The Destroyers have lost three straight games at home, but the Predators are 3-7 ATS in their L/10 on the road. Before rolling off back-to-back home covers, they were just 2-7 in their L/9 games.

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Colorado Crush @ Dallas Desperados u96.0 (-110)
Mon Mar 17 ‘08 8:00p
ESPN’s Monday Night telecast features two big name owners, as John Elway’s (1-0) Colorado Crush and Jerry Jones’ (2-0) Dallas Desperados hook up. Colorado was on their bye in Week 2, while Dallas is coming off of a 46-36 home win and cover over the Columbus Destroyers. In Week 1, Colorado took on those same Destroyers, posting a 50-47 victory.

The key for the Crush in 2008 is to find a replacement for departed WR Damian Harrell, who is 2nd in the AFL all-time in TD receptions. Ben Nelson filled in admirably in his first game for the Crush, posting 9 grabs for 98 yards and 3 TDs. Though QB John Dutton looked good in Week 1, he’s still thrown 9 INTs in his L/6 games, which won’t get it done in this league.

In their nationally televised game two weeks ago, Desperados QB Clint Dolezel was heard telling his backup Chris Sanders, “Have a great season!” Dolezel isn’t out for the year, but he’ll still be sidelined for another month. In Sanders’ first start for Dallas last week, he went a very respectable 21-of-34 for 268 yards with 5 TDs, but most importantly, no INTs. The team around him is simply fabulous, as WR’s Marcus Nash, Will Pettis, and Josh Bush make up perhaps the best receiving trio in the league. If Dallas can continue their consistent play on defense, they should be in prime position to make another run at the ArenaBowl even if Dolezel is out longer than expected.

Despite Dolezel’s absence, the oddsmakers hung Dallas as an 8 point favorite, which has since been as high as 10.5, and has settled at 9.5. The opening ‘total’ of 91 is the lowest of the season, but was bet up up to 96 quickly. Dallas has won 14 straight regular season home games, but they’ve only managed a 4-6 ATS in their L/10 at home. Colorado is 3-7 ATS in their L/10 road games and only 7-11-1 ATS for their bettors since the start of the 2007 season.

In this battle of unbeaten teams, will it be the Desperados that continue their march towards ArenaBowl XXII, or will the Crush come into American Airlines Arena and steal one from the hosts? Tune your HDTV sets to ESPN2 at 8:00 ET to find out…

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Los Angeles Avengers vs Georgia Force u105.5 (-110)
Sat Mar 15 ‘08 7:00p
Two teams headed in completely opposite directions hook up at Gwinnett Arena on Saturday night when the (2-0) Los Angeles Avengers hook up with the (0-2) Georgia Force. The Avengers are widely considered a team on the rise in the AFL, and a legitimate threat to hoist the hardware in New Orleans. Meanwhile, the Force have fallen from last year’s 14-2 result to open up the 2008 campaign with back-to-back losses, a pain they haven’t felt since the end of the 2006 season. The last time Georgia lost three straight games was in 2004, when they lost six in a row.

The schedule for the Avengers has been notably weak, playing host to the New Orleans VooDoo and traveling to the desert to take on the Arizona Rattlers. In both games, the opposing starting QB was knocked out in the first half, making the 2nd half easy pickings for the defense. Should LA knock Force QB Chris Greisen out of the game, rookie Ben Dougherty will have to take his first AFL snaps, though he has indoor football experience with the Tallahassee Titans of the AIFA. Though 2nd year QB Sonny Cumbie avoided turning the ball over following his 3 INT outing from Week 1, he only completed 51.7% of his passes (15/29) against a questionable Rattlers defense in Week 2. WR/KR Timon Marshall has been as good as advertised this season, averaging 174 all-purpose yards and 2.5 TDs per game. The LA “D” has been opportunistic, forcing six turnovers thus far.

Statistically speaking, the Force have been a complete mess in 2008. After one week, the team released its leading receiver, Brent Holmes (156 yards and 3 TDs in Week 1), their QB is on a pace to throw double the INTs of a year ago, they have a grand total of ZERO rushing yards, and the offense that averaged close to 63 PPG last year has only managed a shade under 45 PPG. The defense hasn’t been much to write home about either, giving up 120 points in just two games and only forcing two turnovers. One must remember that Georgia did take on Dallas and Tampa Bay in their first two weeks, arguably the two toughest teams in the AFL.

Georgia home games have gone under the ‘total’ in 5 of their L/6, while LA is 6-3-1 towards the under in their L/10 roadies. The current ‘total’ is a very reasonably 105.5, so hit the Under up in what should be a defensive minded affair….

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San Jose SaberCats -10.5 (-110) vs. Grand Rapids Rampage
Mon Mar 10 ‘08 7:00p
The defending ArenaBowl Champions got off to a rough start last week in Chicago in a game that was a tail of two halves. Chicago busted out of the gates to grab a quick 14-0 lead, but the Sabercats stayed calm, cool, and collected and got themselves right back into the game. After Rodney Wright hauled in a 6-yard TD pass from QB Mark Grieb at the 10:50 mark of the second quarter, the Sabercats astonishingly found themselves up 21-14. The All State Arena seemed to be a more tranquil place after that, but the Rush weren’t going to go down quietly. The 2nd quarter expired when K AJ Haglund nailed a 45-yard FG, and the Sabercats went into the break down a point at 28-27. They were right in it, and Head Coach Darren Arbet demanded his men got more physical in the second half to allow them to steal a win.

It didn’t happen however as they were outscored 14-7 in the third quarter and 28-13 in the final quarter. There was a very questionable call made that went against the Sabercats on what was a perceived fumble by WR James Roe, but replay made it clearly apparent that his knee was down before he lost control of the pigskin. Thankfully for the Rush, there is no instant replay in this league. Mark Grieb completed 35-of-46 passes for 353 yards and 5 TDs, but Chicago’s relentless stop unit coaxed him into throwing some errant passes that were picked off three times. They lost the turnover battle 5:2 and only converted 2 of their 6 3rd down tries. All in all, the defending champs got beat up pretty bad and will no doubt take the field against Grand Rapids in search of atonement.

Tonight’s game will be the first of the season for Grand Rapids as they were the lone team off last week. The new look Rampage have a new leader at the helm that goes by the name of Steve Thonn. He was the offensive coordinator for the Georgia Force, who averaged a whopping 62.9 PPG in 2007. They rebuilt their roster through Nashville and Austin folding. The secondary looks rather impressive, headed up by Ahmad Hawkins, who broke the AFL record with 13 INTs in 2007. The offense seems patchwork, but if anyone can build an offense from the ground up, it’s Steve Thonn.

San Jose is an 11-point road chalk with the ‘total’ set at 106 for this match-up. In the eight games played between these two clubs, San Jose has won 7 of them SU and gone 6-2-1 ATS. The Sabercats have won 4 of its L/5 road games SU, and they’re a solid 9-3-1 ATS its L/13 road contests.

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